A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP FIP- RP FIP- Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ

Red Sox 14-9 0 121 ↗ 91 ↗ 80 ↘ 179 ↗ 53.8% 1

Dodgers 15-7 1 114 ↘ 75 ↘ 95 ↗ 163 ↘ 99.5% -1

The same two teams sit atop the rankings but they’ve switched positions. Neither team had an outstanding week — both teams split a series against the Mariners but the Dodgers lost their four-game set against the Padres after a wild Sunday night game that went to 11 innings.

 

The Red Sox now have the best offense in baseball and Eduardo Rodriguez has turned into two fantastic starts to help their rotation gain ground in the rankings. After developing a case of myocarditis — an inflammation of the heart muscle — brought on by contracting COVID-19, there was no way to know what to expect from Rodriguez this season but he’s picked up right where he left off after his breakout season in 2019.

 

Life is good. But it can be better.

[Bellhorn04]

Life is good. But it can be better.

 

Be grateful for what you have, not regretful about what you don't.

 

[moonslav59]

Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP FIP- RP FIP- Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ

Red Sox 14-9 0 121 ↗ 91 ↗ 80 ↘ 179 ↗ 53.8% 1

Dodgers 15-7 1 114 ↘ 75 ↘ 95 ↗ 163 ↘ 99.5% -1

The same two teams sit atop the rankings but they’ve switched positions. Neither team had an outstanding week — both teams split a series against the Mariners but the Dodgers lost their four-game set against the Padres after a wild Sunday night game that went to 11 innings.

 

The Red Sox now have the best offense in baseball and Eduardo Rodriguez has turned into two fantastic starts to help their rotation gain ground in the rankings. After developing a case of myocarditis — an inflammation of the heart muscle — brought on by contracting COVID-19, there was no way to know what to expect from Rodriguez this season but he’s picked up right where he left off after his breakout season in 2019.

 

Life is good. But it can be better.

 

We might see JD come back down a little, but Bogey, Devers and Verdugo should be able to sustain their numbers going forward. Now, the rest of the line-up: it's hard to imagine all these guys, except Arroyo, Marwin and Kike, to continue doing so very badly, but right now, the league is full of horrific starts by many players.

 

You have to set the PA minimum to 40 to get a 270 palyer sample size for 2021 (9 batters x 30 teams).

 

Here's how bad the bottom OPS players are:

 

The bottom 30 guys are all below .500, including Renfroe at #30 worst.

The next 30 range from .497 to.562 , including Franchy at #35.

 

That's 2 of every 9 hitters on average, hitting below .563.

 

#61 to 90 has a range from.562 to .622 (No Sox players, here.)

One-third of the top 270 hitters by PAs are below .622!

 

#91 to 120 ranges from .622 to .677 (Dalbec places #101, which means he's just barely a middle tier batter, so far!

 

#121 (Marwin places #121) to 150 ranges from .677 to .725. (Vaz is near the league median at #132 at .692.) The league median is .696.

 

MORE THAN HALF OF THE TOP 270 MLB BATTERS IN PAs ARE UNDER .699!!!!

[moonslav59]

Be grateful for what you have, not regretful about what you don't.

 

 

I was a little worried this season might be a horror show.

 

I'm extremely grateful for the start we've had. I hope it helps us stay in the race to the end.

 

When it comes to regrets and the Sox, almost all have been erased by the last 2 decades of success.

[mvp 78]

Be grateful for what you have, not regretful about what you don't.

 

 

A quote so important that it's attributed to "anonymous."

[Bellhorn04]

A quote so important that it's attributed to "anonymous."

 

Some of the great ones are.

[mvp 78]

Some of the great ones are.

 

Never.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A quote so important that it's attributed to "anonymous."

 

Maybe they meant for that one to be "unanimous."

[moonslav59]

Sox by Tiers:

 

SP ERA

3.48 Pivetta

3.52 ERod

3.77 Eovaldi

(Who'd have thought Pivetta would be our starter leader in ERA?)

 

4.82 Houck (just 2 starts)

 

5.71 Perez

6.48 Richards

 

OPS Against

.643 ERod

.660 Eovaldi

.662 Pivetta

 

.742 Houck

.797 Richards

.803 Perez

 

RP OPS Against:

.304 Whitlock

.368 Valdez

.400 Bazardo (5 PA)

.401 Barnes

 

.615 Andriese

.633 Sawamura

.656 Ottavino

 

.837 Brice

 

.921 DHern

1.000 Houck (4 PA)

1.039 Taylor

 

 

 

Batting: OPS

1.199 JD

.975 Bogey

.908 Verdugo

.907 Devers

 

.771 Arroyo (.860 last 2 weeks)

.727 Kike

.692 Vaz (.344 last 2 weeks)

.677 Marwin

.646 Dalbec (.856 last 2 weeks)

 

.510 Cordero (.269 last 2 weeks)

.496 Renfroe

.471 Plawecki

 

vs RHP

1.326 JD

 

1.022 Verdugo

.957 Devers

.921 Bogey

 

.792 Kike

.747 Vaz

.689 Arroyo

.668 Marwin

 

.499 Cordero

.438 Plawecki

.377 Renfroe

.367 Dalbec

 

vs LHP

1.115 Dalbec

1.075 Bogey

 

.912 JD

.891 Arroyo

 

.784 Devers

.753 Renfroe

.689 Marwin

.667 Cordero (reverse split)

.640 Verdugo

 

.595 Kike

.591 Vaz

.522 Plawecki

 

Is Dalbec heading towards a platoon? If yes, with whom? Marwin? Call up Chavis?

Edited April 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Is Dalbec heading towards a platoon? If yes, with whom? Marwin? Call up Chavis?

 

https://soxprospects.com/players/ockimey-josh.htm

 

It's time.

[moonslav59]

https://soxprospects.com/players/ockimey-josh.htm

 

It's time.

 

I've been on this bandwagon for a long time. Ockimey has great platoon potential.

 

Too bad we need 14 pitchers. despite have 2 of the next 8 days off and 3 of the next 22 off.

[Bellhorn04]

Is Dalbec heading towards a platoon? If yes, with whom? Marwin? Call up Chavis?

 

Dalbec had a .903 OPS against RHP in 2020.

 

He's struggling this year, but needs more time.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec had a .903 OPS against RHP in 2020.

 

He's struggling this year, but needs more time.

 

I agree, but the concern is rising, and Ockimey may be due for a look-see and decision about his future with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

More data diving: if you lower the min PAs needed to 30, the league batters who meet that criteria is 326. Here is how they are broken down:

 

17 are above 1.000 OPS (4 over 1.200 and 9 over 1.100)

31 between .900-.999

53 .800-.899

58 .700-.799

73 .600-.699

51 .500-.599

30 .400-.499

10 .300-.399

3 .200-.299

 

Tighten the tiers:

47 above .900

53 .800-.899

58 .700-.799

73 .600-.699

51 .500-.599

43 .200-.499

 

94 players under .599

101 over .800

131 in between

 

167 below .699

159 above .700

 

100 above .800

100 below .603

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but the concern is rising, and Ockimey may be due for a look-see and decision about his future with the Sox.

 

Way, way too soon to bail on Dalbec and turn him into a guy who plays a third of the time. I thought you were high on him.

[moonslav59]

85 pitchers have 20+ IP

 

Half have a K% of over 25%.

 

A quarter are striking out batters 28% or more, including 6 guys over 39%!

 

32 of 85 have a WHIP at 1.00 or lower. (almost half.)

53 of 85 are under 1.200.

Only 13 are over 1.350.

[moonslav59]

Way, way too soon to bail on Dalbec and turn him into a guy who plays a third of the time. I thought you were high on him.

 

I'm super high on Dalbec, and I'm not for a platoon, now, but the idea of bringing up Ockimey to give Dalbec a break, here and there, may have some merit, if things continue like this.

 

(My guess is Chavis, Santana or Duran would be called up before Ockimey.)

[mvp 78]

I've been on this bandwagon for a long time. Ockimey has great platoon potential.

 

Too bad we need 14 pitchers. despite have 2 of the next 8 days off and 3 of the next 22 off.

 

We don't need 14 pitchers. 13 is more than enough.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec had a .903 OPS against RHP in 2020.

 

He's struggling this year, but needs more time.

 

I believe he has typically started off the years slow. When it warms up, he'll be fine.

[moonslav59]

We don't need 14 pitchers. 13 is more than enough.

 

I've felt this way, all along.

 

We can call up a pitcher in a matter of hours, if needed.

[Maxbialystock]

Dalbec has three errors, a lot for a first baseman in April. I'm fine with giving him more time, but 1B is a position where errors should be infrequent and good hitting is not (infrequent). So far he seems to have the two reversed.

 

I too like 14 pitchers even though that leaves a 2 man bench, one of whom must be a catcher, for the position players. That seems too few except that in the past the Sox bench wasn't used all that much.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec has three errors, a lot for a first baseman in April. I'm fine with giving him more time, but 1B is a position where errors should be infrequent and good hitting is not (infrequent). So far he seems to have the two reversed.

 

I too like 14 pitchers even though that leaves a 2 man bench, one of whom must be a catcher, for the position players. That seems too few except that in the past the Sox bench wasn't used all that much.

 

When you have 3 guys hitting under .500 and one of the worst defensive Sox teams in memory, it's nice to have some late inning choices.

 

There will never be a day where we suddenly need the 14th pitcher. We will always know a day or two ahead of that time, and can call someone up, if needed.

 

It seems very simple, to me.

[Bellhorn04]

I too like 14 pitchers even though that leaves a 2 man bench, one of whom must be a catcher, for the position players. That seems too few except that in the past the Sox bench wasn't used all that much.

 

It's a 3 man bench including the catcher. They expanded the roster from 25 to 26.

[mvp 78]

It's a 3 man bench including the catcher. They expanded the roster from 25 to 26.

 

And it wasn't that long ago that carrying 12 pitchers was normal. Now we are supposed to carry 14?

[Bellhorn04]

When you have 3 guys hitting under .500 and one of the worst defensive Sox teams in memory, it's nice to have some late inning choices.

 

There will never be a day where we suddenly need the 14th pitcher. We will always know a day or two ahead of that time, and can call someone up, if needed.

 

It seems very simple, to me.

 

But you can't just shuttle players to and from the alternate site without any consequences (burning options/waiting periods), I wouldn't think. Otherwise every team would be doing it.

Edited April 26, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

And it wasn't that long ago that carrying 12 pitchers was normal. Now we are supposed to carry 14?

 

New normal, I guess.

[moonslav59]

But you can't just shuttle players to and from the alternate site without any consequences (burning options/waiting periods), I wouldn't think. Otherwise every team would be doing it.

 

It won't affect options.

 

Waiting periods are not all that problematic, and the worst thing that could happen is we get stuck with 14 pitchers for 10 days. (Or, you send a different pitcher down after the need goes away.)

 

So far, we haven't really come close to needing even 13 pitchers. We got posters screaming we need to use Whitlock more!

[kenmeister]

So far, I hope that when Chris Sale comes back, he replaces Garret Richards, assuming he continues to perform as he has done.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It won't affect options.

 

Waiting periods are not all that problematic, and the worst thing that could happen is we get stuck with 14 pitchers for 10 days. (Or, you send a different pitcher down after the need goes away.)

 

So far, we haven't really come close to needing even 13 pitchers. We got posters screaming we need to use Whitlock more!

 

We need to carry more posters on this thread! Only about a dozen post here, but one is unrealistic and a Yankee fan.

[Bellhorn04]

It won't affect options.

 

Waiting periods are not all that problematic, and the worst thing that could happen is we get stuck with 14 pitchers for 10 days. (Or, you send a different pitcher down after the need goes away.)

 

So far, we haven't really come close to needing even 13 pitchers. We got posters screaming we need to use Whitlock more!

 

Whitlock is likely one of the main reasons they're going with 14 pitchers. Because they're only using him in very specific situations where he can pitch multiple innings.