A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

60 games plus another 12 years that they should have signed him for.

 

What's the point in 5 years of Downs and Wong if we don't know if they'll even get to MLB?

 

Budget space??? You were saying that the budget was already restricted even after getting rid of Betts!

 

Exactly on your last point.

 

Had we kept Betts, we'd have holes everywhere else.

[moonslav59]

He sucks. What would take to get Freidman to convince Bloom to take back Mookie and that 12-year albatross contract for such a small body due to break down (unlike Judge and Stanton)? LA would have to include young pitching, but would even May and Gonsolin get it done? BrudSTAAAAH? Maybe... those three... and Lux?

 

Mookie, $150M, Gonsolin for Duran and Ward.

[harmony]

Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek were hardly "up & coming" when the Seattle Mariners traded the pair to the Red Sox in July 1997.

 

Baseball America ranked Lowe No. 70 in 1993 and No. 63 in 1994 but had long since dropped Lowe from its Top 100 prospect rankings.

 

Baseball America ranked Varitek No. 51 in 1996 but dropped Varitek from its 1997 rankings because of the catcher's undistinguished performance.

 

Instead of "up & coming," the stock of Lowe and Varitek was dropping.

 

It's a cliche, but hindsight is 20/20. The trade worked out fabulously for the Red Sox and dismally for the Mariners.

 

Seattle fans take some comfort in that at the deadline the previous year the Mariners traded Darren Bragg for Jamie Moyer, who posted more WAR than Lowe or Varitek for his new team (and for his career).

This fan was angry at the Seattle front office the day in 1997 when the Mariners traded Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe to the Red Sox.

 

But not because of the Heathcliff Slocumb trade.

 

On the same day the Mariners traded outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. to the Blue Jays for relievers Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin. Unlike the floundering Varitek and Lowe, Cruz had entered the 1997 season as Baseball America's 12th-ranked prospect.

 

In that season's AL Rookie of the Year voting Cruz finished second ... to Nomar Garciaparra.

[Kimmi]

Verdugo is a good player, but he's a downgrade from Betts. If Downs or Wong doesn't pan out, it's not a good trade IMO.

 

When you factor in the difference in cost, it absolutely is a good trade, regardless of what Downs or Wong does.

[Kimmi]

Right now we have Codero and Renfroe being envisioned as only playing against either right or left hand pitchers. Neither are good pinch hit material, nor is Plawecki. That leaves us thin. Do we have someone better waiting in the wings that might contribute to winning a game or two. It looks like the choices are Santana, Chavis and Duran at this point. I dont see the need for 14 pitchers.

 

As Bell pointed out, pinch hitters typically don't hit that well. Is the upgrade in a pinch hitting option that we'd get from Santana, Chavis, or Duran better than having an extra reliever? IMO, no. Besides, we want those guys playing every day, not sitting on the bench waiting for a pinch hitting opportunity.

[moonslav59]

The idea would be to PH Renfroe for Cordero or Cordero for Renfroe after a pitching change, but a manager might be reluctant with a 2 man bench. (I don't count Plawecki.) Renfroe still has a massive split differential, while Cordero has yet to show his normal wide L-R split.

 

For the same reason the 14th pitcher offers more options rather than filling a need, so does having a 3 man bench vs a 2 man bench.

 

I might offer the argument that there is actual need for the extra bench guy, either as a PH'er, a defensive replacement or just to offer flexibility or an emergency back-up.

 

The horse has been beaten enough. It's not a major issue that affects the team that much either way.

[mvp 78]

When you factor in the difference in cost, it absolutely is a good trade, regardless of what Downs or Wong does.

 

No.

[oldtimer]

The Sox are headed to meet the rangers having used Barnes hard to pick up two excellent wins against the Mets, who also have a very solid pitching staff. The Sox also used Whitlock so will have to look elsewhere to close games for the next couple of days. It was worth it.

[Larry Cook]

Time to call up bastardo!

[moonslav59]

Updated Rotation Numbers:

 

3-0 2.81 Pivetta

4-0 3.52 ERod

3-2 3.77 Eovaldi

1-2 4.94 Richards

0-1 5.71 Perez

 

IP H - BB - K

28.2 28- 5- 27 Eovaldi

25.2 15-17-25 Pivetta

23.2 25-13-22 Richards

23.0 18- 2 -26 ERod

17.1 20- 9 -15 Perez

 

Team Record in Starts

4-0 ERod (45-12 from 2018-2019)

4-1 Pivetta

3-1 Perez

3-2 Eovaldi

2-3 Richards

 

The team has gone 49-12 in ERod's last 61 starts with the Sox!

 

.803 winning %

 

[Maxbialystock]

No.

 

Yes. Betts was/is unaffordable if your goal is building a good team. Losing him was a lot like losing Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees. And yes, I know Betts is way better than Ellsbury was.

[moonslav59]

We can argue about spending limits or no spending limits, but mix and match to reach the $30M Betts has for an AVV:

 

Betts $30M

 

or

 

Verdugo $0.65M

 

plus mix n match...

 

$10M Richards

$9M Ottavino

$7M Hernandez

$5M Perez

$3M Marwin

$3M Renfroe

$2.1M Andriese

$1.5M Sawamura

 

Pick the worst bunch to reach $30M. Pick the best.

 

Either way, who plays in the slots left vacant by the ones you pick?

 

You can pray Houck, Duran, Bazardo and Chavis with no Verdugo could join Betts to make us a better team, but I'm not seeing it.

[Maxbialystock]

We can argue about spending limits or no spending limits, but mix and match to reach the $30M Betts has for an AVV:

 

Betts $30M

 

or

 

Verdugo $0.65M

 

plus mix n match...

 

$10M Richards

$9M Ottavino

$7M Hernandez

$5M Perez

$3M Marwin

$3M Renfroe

$2.1M Andriese

$1.5M Sawamura

 

Pick the worst bunch to reach $30M. Pick the best.

 

Either way, who plays in the slots left vacant by the ones you pick?

 

You can pray Houck, Duran, Bazardo and Chavis with no Verdugo could join Betts to make us a better team, but I'm not seeing it.

 

To me it's much simpler. The Dodgers pay their active players a whole bunch more than the Sox pay theirs, and the teams have the same W-L record.

 

Or try this. Betts is one freaking position player, and one position never, ever can make up for the shortcomings of other position players. Trout has been the best in MLB for quite a while and the Angels have stunk throughout his career.

[moonslav59]

To me it's much simpler. The Dodgers pay their active players a whole bunch more than the Sox pay theirs, and the teams have the same W-L record.

 

Or try this. Betts is one freaking position player, and one position never, ever can make up for the shortcomings of other position players. Trout has been the best in MLB for quite a while and the Angels have stunk throughout his career.

 

Oh, and I forgot to add the $16M saved by Price. Basically, every dollar we spent, this winter is still less than Betts + Price's half share.

[mvp 78]

Yes. Betts was/is unaffordable if your goal is building a good team. Losing him was a lot like losing Jacoby Ellsbury to the Yankees. And yes, I know Betts is way better than Ellsbury was.

 

No. Sox have one of the largest payrolls in baseball. The lux tax is large enough for each team to afford $30M to a HOF guy.

[mvp 78]

We can argue about spending limits or no spending limits, but mix and match to reach the $30M Betts has for an AVV:

 

Betts $30M

 

or

 

Verdugo $0.65M

 

plus mix n match...

 

$10M Richards

$9M Ottavino

$7M Hernandez

$5M Perez

$3M Marwin

$3M Renfroe

$2.1M Andriese

$1.5M Sawamura

 

Pick the worst bunch to reach $30M. Pick the best.

 

Either way, who plays in the slots left vacant by the ones you pick?

 

You can pray Houck, Duran, Bazardo and Chavis with no Verdugo could join Betts to make us a better team, but I'm not seeing it.

 

Betts over Richards and Price.

[mvp 78]

Oh, and I forgot to add the $16M saved by Price. Basically, every dollar we spent, this winter is still less than Betts + Price's half share.

 

Or just use money on players that will stick around, not David price?

[Bellhorn04]

We can argue about spending limits or no spending limits, but mix and match to reach the $30M Betts has for an AVV

 

Mookie's AAV is reportedly 25.55 million because of the deferred money. Spotrac shows that. For some reason Cot's doesn't right now.

[moonslav59]

No. Sox have one of the largest payrolls in baseball. The lux tax is large enough for each team to afford $30M to a HOF guy.

 

The point is that yes, we can afford him, but when you also have Price at $32M, Sale at $25M, JD at $22M, Bogey at $20M and Eovaldi at $17M, the rest of your roster is going to be full of players barely above replacement level, unless you have a strong, deep and balanced farm.

 

Let's not for get the David Price part of that deal. It was Crawfordesque.

[moonslav59]

Betts over Richards and Price.

 

Ummm, not trading Betts means we have Price's full $32M contract still on the books.

 

That's over $45M to make up. Richards is $10M of that.

[moonslav59]

Mookie's AAV is reportedly 25.55 million because of the deferred money. Spotrac shows that. For some reason Cot's doesn't right now.

 

Either way: it's $30M x 12 or $25M x 14 or 15 years.

 

Go with $25M + $16M from Price, and we have Betts and Price with no Verdugo and $41M less to spend last winter.

 

That's basically more money that everybody we signed. We'd have this 26 man roster plus maybe dumping another salary somehow:

 

Eovaldi, ERod, Sale, Price, Pivetta, Houck (No Richards or Perez)

Barnes, DHern, Whitlock, Valdez, Brasier, Brice, Taylor, Bazardo, Brewer

(No Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura)

Vaz & Plawecki

Dalbec

Arroyo & Chavis (No Marwin or Downs)

Devers

Bogey

Cordero (No Renfroe)

Duran (No Kike)

Betts (No Verdugo)

JD

 

Not only is this team worse (maybe debatable) , the farm is worse (not debatable) and our future spending power is greatly diminished (not debatable).

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Either way: it's $30M x 12 or $25M x 14 or 15 years.

 

No, we're just talking about AAV for tax purposes. It's 25.5 * 12.

 

Just as Chris Sale is 25.6 * 5, not 29 * 5.

[moonslav59]

No, we're just talking about AAV for tax purposes. It's 25.5 * 12.

 

Just as Chris Sale is 25.6 * 5, not 29 * 5.

 

The deferred money does not count after the 12 years are up?

 

Are you sure about that?

 

Why not sign everyone like this, then?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not only is this team worse (maybe debatable) , the farm is worse (not debatable) and our future spending power is greatly diminished (not debatable).

 

 

 

Re: not trading Betts and the subsequent spending options; the '21 Sox would definitely be worse because Price is done (and his attitude would be intolerable), the new bullpen trio is a huge improvement, and Marwin's D all over the infield is underrated.

 

The farm as-is would also be worse (though another tank finish would yield higher draft picks). Future spending remains to be seen...

[moonslav59]

When I look at the merits of the Sale trade, I don't factor in the extension. That is a separate transaction and choice.

 

The Betts trade was 60 games of Betts and 3 years of Price (that turned into 2 due to his opt out) at half price for Verdugo, Downs and Wong.

 

The money "savings" part is not really part of the deal, since it assumes we extended Betts, but since many are assuming that, then we can look at the money part of the trade, too.

 

$25M x 12 of Betts plus $16M of Price x 2 vs what else could we get for that money + Verdugo, Downs & Wong.

[moonslav59]

Re: not trading Betts and the subsequent spending options; the '21 Sox would definitely be worse because Price is done (and his attitude would be intolerable), the new bullpen trio is a huge improvement, and Marwin's D all over the infield is underrated.

 

The farm as-is would also be worse (though another tank finish would yield higher draft picks). Future spending remains to be seen...

 

Price opting out of 2020 speaks volumes, too.

 

I still can't believe several posters were very upset he was included in that deal.

 

As bad as Richards and Perez have been, this year, I'd still take both over Price's $16M (going forward) all day long, and we still have his $16M for 2022, too!

[Bellhorn04]

The deferred money does not count after the 12 years are up?

 

Are you sure about that?

 

Why not sign everyone like this, then?

 

Simple answer - not everyone is willing to accept deferred money.

[moonslav59]

Re: not trading Betts and the subsequent spending options; the '21 Sox would definitely be worse because Price is done (and his attitude would be intolerable), the new bullpen trio is a huge improvement, and Marwin's D all over the infield is underrated.

 

The farm as-is would also be worse (though another tank finish would yield higher draft picks). Future spending remains to be seen...

 

Had we not traded Betts and still reset, it's hard to know where our draft pick would be, and if we'd have traded all those guys for Pivetta, Seabold, Rosario, Potts and others.

 

Also, would we have picked high enough to get Whitlock in the rule 5?

 

Lot's of unknowns.

[moonslav59]

Simple answer - not everyone is willing to accept deferred money.

 

What about my first question?

[Bellhorn04]

What about my first question?

 

Yes, I'm sure about that. I think the Red Sox are still paying Manny and the Mets are still paying Bonilla. Do you see them in the tax numbers?

 

That's always been the case.