A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Really most teams that have the 4 bench players have that one player that has been rostered all month and still only has somewhere between 5 and 8 plate appearances. The Sox just cut out that guy and used another bullpen pitcher.

 

That guy might have been a great defensive replacement that got few PAs, or he might have been that flex guy that allowed the manager to PH or sub someone else, late in a game, knowing he had the flex guy on the bench- just in case. That 25th and now 26th man can have a lot of value, even if they don't get to bat often.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A huge credit needs to go out to Bloom and Cora.

 

Looking at the OPS you posted, I think Bloom's best move so far was bringing back Cora. He has all his veteran core performing again at the top of their games.

 

The four best regulars are basically pre-Bloom -- that is, if we swap back Verdugo for Betts (which, despite the stats, no one will say would make the Sox a worse team). ERod, Eovaldi, and Barnes are arguably the biggest mound contributors.

 

Arroyo's been solid, but the rest of Bloom's acquisitions have been so-so at best. The best we can say is they're versatile (so were Holt and Nunez in '18 -- decent, but not indispensable). Pivetta's been ok, and we'd be happy with '18 Porcello good for the season. New bullpen pieces like Otto, Hiro and Andriese have been mostly good, though maybe not yet comparable to the title trio of Kimbrel, Kelly and Hembree.

 

But without a doubt, Bloom's key get -- the gem of his tenure in Boston right now -- was stealing Whitlock from our arch-rivals.

[Maxbialystock]

Bottom line: long relievers save others from having to pitch- sometimes 3-4 others.

 

He's second in relief IP.

 

It's the same a saying SP'ers who go long into games save the pen, despite only pitching every 5 days.

 

When has the 14th pitcher ever come into play? When have we had a time where we were even down to only 2-3 guys to choose from, and if we were, we knew ahead of time, so we could have brought a pitcher up, like we did on the DBL header games- where we get a 27th man, anyway.

 

The only advantage I see with 14 pitchers is that it allows Cora a wider range of pitchers to choose one who is most likely to be successful. That is significant, but so is having a PH'er for a .490 batter or a late inning defensive replacement for anyone of about 3 or 4 bad to awful defenders.

 

 

Completely agree an effective long reliever is invaluable. As for Whitlock, do not mess with success.

 

On the other hand, I think Taylor's job is to encourage opposing hitters who might be getting down in the dumps. He and Garrett Richards are a 2-man demolition team whose job is to blow up the Sox pitching staff. I do not think they should be sent down, released, or traded. They should be taken out and shot for wearing the Red Sox uniform while committing acts of sabotage.

[Bellhorn04]

I just wonder what happened to the rule from 2020 that teams could have 26 man rosters but not more than 13 pitchers...

 

Some cursory research indicates that the original rules for 2020 were to limit pitchers to 13, but when the pandemic hit they decided to scrap the limit.

[moonslav59]

Looking at the OPS you posted, I think Bloom's best move so far was bringing back Cora. He has all his veteran core performing again at the top of their games.

 

The four best regulars are basically pre-Bloom -- that is, if we swap back Verdugo for Betts (which, despite the stats, no one will say would make the Sox a worse team). ERod, Eovaldi, and Barnes are arguably the biggest mound contributors.

 

Arroyo's been solid, but the rest of Bloom's acquisitions have been so-so at best. The best we can say is they're versatile (so were Holt and Nunez in '18 -- decent, but not indispensable). Pivetta's been ok, and we'd be happy with '18 Porcello good for the season. New bullpen pieces like Otto, Hiro and Andriese have been mostly good, though maybe not yet comparable to the title trio of Kimbrel, Kelly and Hembree.

 

But without a doubt, Bloom's key get -- the gem of his tenure in Boston right now -- was stealing Whitlock from our arch-rivals.

 

While I agree, not many of Blooms winter additions have had an immediate positive affect on the team, other than Arroyo and Whitlock, he had so many holes to fill and so little money, I didn't expect All stars created from journeymen. The biggest gains are yet to be realized, IMO. They are on the farm or have not yet shown what they can do.

 

Also, most of the holes on the team from 2020 were on the pitching staff, so I have not yet shown that area. The biggest holes we had for everyday positions were 2B, CF, 1B, LF and utility.

 

2B: Arroyo was not acquired this past winter, but he is a Bloom guy and doing very well. He also acquired Downs, Arauz, Munoz to go with Kike & Marwin.

 

CF/LF: from Beni/JBJ to Kike, Renfroe/Cordero/Marwin- not great, but the guys he replaced have not done well, either.

 

1B: He did not add anyone, but instead put a lot of faith (and pressure) on Dalbec (Chavis/Marwin- Cassas/Ockimey?)

 

Utility: Kike, Marwin, Munoz, Santana and others.

 

These guys were gotten to bridge to 2022, and not to do great things, but I can see how these guys listed above can be viewed, combined, as not being a plus.

 

I'll do the pitching, soon.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The biggest gains are yet to be realized, IMO. They are on the farm or have not yet shown what they can do.

 

 

 

That was Bloom's first priority coming in. Cora's is to win with the big league roster. Both are doing well thus far.

[moonslav59]

That was Bloom's first priority coming in. Cora's is to win with the big league roster. Both are doing well thus far.

 

Well said, and I do think Bloom put together a "bridge team" he thought might win or at least be exciting to watch.

[moonslav59]

We are about 1/7th of the way through the season, and let's see how many players are clearly over-achieving and may realistically be expected to regress to the norm:

 

1.199 JD- The guy did hit 1.066 in '17 and 1.031 in '18, so although this is 130-160 points higher than those seasons, it's not really a gross over-achievement, thus far.

 

.975 Bogey- He's in peak prime and hit .939 in '19. No surprise, here. He could even end up higher.

 

.908 Verdugo- He's still nearing peak prime and has been on the rise every season from his rookie year. Some may find a jump from .844 in '20 to .908 extreme, but not me.

 

.907 Devers- Call me biased, but I have been projecting a monster year by Devers at some point between ages 25-29, maybe more than just one season. He hit .917 in '19, so it should not shock anyone, if he ends up over 1.000.

 

.771 Arroyo- Maybe the best candidate beyond JD for "regression," but the guy did hit .736, last year, so this isn't really surprising.

 

.727 Kike- Pretty much what should have been expected. (I expected better CF defense, but that's me.) He hit .744 from '17-'20,so maybe we can expect better?

 

.692 Vaz- Vaz had a .798 OPS from '19-'20. This is a disappointment. I expect an improvement, here. He did hit .540 in '18,so who knows?

 

.677 Marwin- The "trash can season" has made it difficult to judge his highest upside, but he did hit over .733 in both '18 & '19. Once could expect an improvement, even in a season where hitting is down.

 

.646 Dalbec- Hard to know what this kid can and will do. I love his ability to get on base- not just his power, but he has struggled out of the gate. I'd like to think he's better than a coin flip, but we do have Marwin, Chavis and maybe even Ockimey/Casas in the wings.

 

.510 Cordero- No way anyone can project his future. He's certainly shown better than this, but his sample sizes are so scattered, it's impossible to much of anything.

 

.496 Renfroe- This guy has killed lefties for years. He really shouldn't play much once a righty comes in, but with a limited bench, he has been forced to play beyond his means. He's actually over .740 vs lefties, this year, so maybe, if we start using Marwin and Kike in the OF more often, we can get him into a platoon routine.

 

.471 Plawecki- The guy hit .708 from '17-'20, a very respectable number for a back-up catcher, these days.

 

So, these guys have sucked on D and not been good at base running. Can anyone honestly look at the totality of this group and say they have been overachieving, so far?

 

Now, the pitching is another story. I'll do a data dive on them, first thing in the morning, but again, you might be surprised how unsurprising some of our pitching overachievers really are.

 

Now, the pitching: (In order of most IP)

 

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP

 

29 Eovaldi 3.77/1.151- He has finally started to give a season we all hoped he could give after signing for $17M x 4. It's only 1/7th of the way over, so there are still questions, but Eovaldi is doing very well- likely a career best. (So far, the second Sox player I've talked about having a "career year."- JD)

 

23 ERod 3.52/0.870- no surprise here, except for maybe the low WHIP. The COVID affects question was a big one, and he could still show some effects as the year goes on, but he's right on the level he left off.

 

21 Pivetta 3.48/1.355- Maybe a big surprise, but I liked this addition from day 1. He did have a better WHIP in 2018. I can't believe we got Seabold with him, too.

 

17 Perez 5.71/1.673- I expect he can and should do better.

 

17 Richards 6.48/ 1.860- Still hard to project. He hasn't had a meaningful season since 2015. One should expect it will take time to find a groove, but how long can his leash be?

 

12 Barnes 3.00/0.667- One pitch away from being nearly perfect, this year, but he's been solid for us for many years. Yes, He is on pace for a career year, but it should not be all that shocking.

 

12 Andriese 1.54/1.200- a great addition by Bloom. Maybe on his way to a career year.

 

11 Whitlock 0.00/0.529- What can I say? The kid is buttah!

 

10 Houck 4.35/1.452- On an innings restricted plan and doing about as well as expected. Could do better.

 

10 Valdez 3.48/0.774- Continues to surprise. A great get by bloom.

 

10 Sawamura 1.80/1.100- So far, so good. Thanks, Bloom.

 

8.1 Ottavino 4.32/2.143- coming around to expectations.

 

8.1 Taylor 9.72/2.640- may not be around long.

 

7.0 DHern 5.14/2.143- still walking the world.

 

6.2 Brice 4.05/1.500- may not stick around all year

 

Note: These are some small sample sizes, and the numbers can flip on a dime.

 

By and large, this is not really like 2013. Yes, we have several players headed towards "career years," but several more are having their worst years or are under career or recent numbers.

 

[Kimmi]

Did that collection of broken rubbers we called a starting pitching staff in 2020 really last over four innings per start? Each inning seemed like a decade! All those bad pitches and meatballs. It was a terrible sight s as d remains a terrible memory!

 

The Red Sox starters averaged 4.1 innings per start last year. LOL

 

This year, they are averaging 5 innings per start, right at league average.

[Kimmi]

I'd love to have a decent PH'er and late inning defensive replacement or two...

 

I don't recall a game where I really felt like we needed a pinch hitter and one wasn't available. Also, I'm not sure who we would be replacing defensively. Do we have a great pinch hitter or a defensive wizard waiting to be called up, but is being blocked by an extra pitcher?

[moonslav59]

I don't recall a game where I really felt like we needed a pinch hitter and one wasn't available. Also, I'm not sure who we would be replacing defensively. Do we have a great pinch hitter or a defensive wizard waiting to be called up, but is being blocked by an extra pitcher?

 

I can think of about 5 guys I'd like to replace on defense late in games, but I'm not sure we have anyone much better.

 

Marwin has looked great at SS, but we aren't benching Bogey late in games. (If we had Chavis, Arauz or Duran on the bench, maybe we'd feel better about using Marwin late in games or PH'ing Cordero or Renfroe for the other.

Chavis is no wonder on D.

Arauz, Munoz, Duran, Ockimey and Puello aren't known for D either, and some aren't even on the 40.

 

I can remember a few times, I wished we had Chavis to PH or enough flex to PH someone else.

 

I can't remember a time we needed even 13 pitchers, let alone 14. Can you?

[harmony]

The actual real problem with that plan was the Sox started winning. And now fans can't tolerate the gambles they took because they are not all paying off right away. But this team was never expected to be in this position. It''s only been what, a little over two weeks since they got swept at Fenway by lowly Baltimore and John Tomase wrote one of the most scathing articles about this team most of us have ever seen. After reading that article, was the thought really "Well, if we did not have Renfroe and Cordero, we could contend"?

.

Columnist John Tomase has changed his tune:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/time-appreciate-2021-red-sox-and-start-no-one-saw-coming?fbclid=IwAR1nNyqq0jokdNVkgsmb1Q9Bp6BfLahPN5SRpIHUBAG_-z9_S9EtZ0pOlLs

[Bellhorn04]

I can't remember a time we needed even 13 pitchers, let alone 14. Can you?

 

No, no team needs 13 or 14 pitchers, if what you're talking about is one game.

[moonslav59]

Columnist John Tomase has changed his tune:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/time-appreciate-2021-red-sox-and-start-no-one-saw-coming?fbclid=IwAR1nNyqq0jokdNVkgsmb1Q9Bp6BfLahPN5SRpIHUBAG_-z9_S9EtZ0pOlLs

 

Bandwagon jumper!

 

He mentions the bottom of the order becoming and issue. Well, with the whole league hitting so poorly, how much worse are our bottom 3 slots?

 

2021 OPS

Slot MLB BOS

7. .664 .552

8. .610 .639

9. .541 (.583 AL) .519

 

While our 7-9 numbers look bad, they are not all that awful when compared to all of MLB.

 

Hell, here's the rest:

1. .761 .748

2. .755 .905

3. .774 1.158

4. .736 1.026

5. .721 .860

6. .685 .632

[oldtimer]

I don't recall a game where I really felt like we needed a pinch hitter and one wasn't available. Also, I'm not sure who we would be replacing defensively. Do we have a great pinch hitter or a defensive wizard waiting to be called up, but is being blocked by an extra pitcher?

 

Right now we have Codero and Renfroe being envisioned as only playing against either right or left hand pitchers. Neither are good pinch hit material, nor is Plawecki. That leaves us thin. Do we have someone better waiting in the wings that might contribute to winning a game or two. It looks like the choices are Santana, Chavis and Duran at this point. I dont see the need for 14 pitchers.

[moonslav59]

No, no team needs 13 or 14 pitchers, if what you're talking about is one game.

 

I did not mean it that way. I meant that we have never come close to having to use a pitcher on short rest due to not having anyone else with a fresh arm. Had we had a game where we needed 6-7 pitchers, we could have simply called someone up that night- for the next day's game. (We also added a 15th pitcher on our two dblheader days, and those games were only 7 innings each, thereby lessening the strain more than a normal season by the "old rules." Extra inning games are shorter, too.

 

Okay: 24 days since day one.

 

Matt Barnes, who struggles in back-to-back games has only pitched B2B twice (once was when we played a 3 games in 2 days.) He pitched way more than that in previous years, including some stretches where he went B2B 3-4 games in a row.

 

We've played 23 games in 25 days.

 

Appearances/ IP Pitcher

11/12.0 Barnes

10/8.1 Ottavino

9/10.0 Sawamura

9/ 8.1 Taylor

8/11.2 Andriese

8/10.1 Valdez

8/ 7.0 DHern

7/ 6.2 Brice

5/11.1 Whitlock

1/1.0 Bazardo (dblhdr game)

 

All but 2 guys average pitching every 3 days or more- some are more than 1 inning guys, so that is normal.

 

Barnes + Ottavino have pitched 21 games in 25 days. I won't argue they could have pitched more but neither are close to having to pitch every other day on average.

 

I won't argue Sawamura, Andriese, Valdez or Whitlock should have been given more appearances or IP, bur someone might, especially with Andriese and Whitlock.

 

That leaves DHern, Taylor and Brice who have pitched 24 times and 22 innings. I don't think anyone of those three would be considered overused had we split those 24 outings in 25 days in two, instead of 3. They'd average pitching every other day at slightly less than 1 IP per appearance. (BTW, they all have not pitched all that well, so it's hard to imagine getting worse from D Hern & Brice over DHern, Brice & Taylor.)

 

I realize it's April, and you don't want to push people too hard, especially on cold days, but none of these guys are close to being over-taxed.

 

Andriese averaged 2 IP/gm,last year with LA and has even spot started a few times in the last 3+ years. Valdez pitched 30.1 IP,last season, in 24 games, so he's about on the same pace. Whitlock was the great unknown. Had he sucked his first outing, he may have been parked on the end of the bullpen bench and only pitch mop-up duty. I can understand thinking of not counting on him to eat meaningful innings, at the start of the season, but now, we are "stretching him out" to the point where he may piggy back with a starter and allow us to not need any RP'ers but him every 5th day or so. (Maybe.)

 

My point has always been that if we ever got in a pinch, like having to use 4-6 RP'ers 2 nights in a row, we could simply call up Houck or Bazardo. Presto: problem solved.

 

[Bellhorn04]

We haven't needed 14 pitchers. That is indisputable. Ergo, there must be reasons other than need.

[moonslav59]

We haven't needed 14 pitchers. That is indisputable. Ergo, there must be reasons other than need.

 

Yes, and I've even given some. Having 15 pitchers is better than 14.

 

Again, I'm not bashing Cora or Bloom, but I still think my opinion has merit.

 

With so many of our hitters doing so poorly, and some of them having massive L-R splits, having an extra bench guy would allow for more flexibility with late inning PH'ing and maybe even defensive upgrades.

 

I'm pretty sure Cora has decided not to PH for Cordero, Renfroe and maybe even Kike, Marwin or Arroyo, because he was afraid of emptying his bench too much and not being able to handle an injury or other need that might arise.

 

It's a trade off, and I'm not criticizing Bloom or Cora. I just think 13 pitchers would have been fine, and with 2 days off in 8 days, would still be fine, now. I'm not trying to make a big deal about this, especially since I'm not trying to say Cora is making a mistake.

 

[kenmeister]

So far, I hope that when Chris Sale comes back, he replaces Garret Richards, assuming he continues to perform as he has done.

 

I'm pretty sure Richards read my post and stepped it up today.

[Swiharts Ghost]

I'm pretty sure Richards read my post and stepped it up today.

 

Lol I can relate !! Bobby D went yaya less than 48 hours after calling him out as AAAA ...Renfroe and Franchy still look like total hot garbage .

[moonslav59]

Lol I can relate !! Bobby D went yaya less than 48 hours after calling him out as AAAA ...Renfroe and Franchy still look like total hot garbage .

 

Trying to turn your total lack of respect for any Sox player in a prolonged slump into something good?

[Bellhorn04]

Lol I can relate !! Bobby D went yaya less than 48 hours after calling him out as AAAA ...Renfroe and Franchy still look like total hot garbage .

 

Yeah, Bloom has been a disaster. You are so Looney Tunes.

[mvp 78]

Lol I can relate !! Bobby D went yaya less than 48 hours after calling him out as AAAA ...Renfroe and Franchy still look like total hot garbage .

 

I think having Renfroe hit against RHP is setting him up to fail. He just can't hit RHP.

 

Cordero looks lost right now, but I'd still take him over Renfroe against RHP. I think there's a chance Cordero gets optioned in May if he doesn't turn it around.

 

I'm not pleased with what the plan was for the corner OF. My guess it's just a stop gap before they bring up Duran midseason. Also, Cordero and Renfroe are cheap enough that you could waive them if it doesn't get any better. s***, both Franchy and Renfroe still have options.

[mvp 78]

Yeah, Bloom has been a disaster. You are so Looney Tunes.

 

Losing Betts is a disaster IMO, but that wasn't Bloom's call.

[moonslav59]

I think having Renfroe hit against RHP is setting him up to fail. He just can't hit RHP.

 

Cordero looks lost right now, but I'd still take him over Renfroe against RHP. I think there's a chance Cordero gets optioned in May if he doesn't turn it around.

 

I'm not pleased with what the plan was for the corner OF. My guess it's just a stop gap before they bring up Duran midseason. Also, Cordero and Renfroe are cheap enough that you could waive them if it doesn't get any better. s***, both Franchy and Renfroe still have options.

 

They should have platooned from day one, but certainly by now, the writing is on the wall.

 

With Arroyo on his way winning the 2B job FT, Kike can play OF.

 

Marwin is doing better than both Cordero & Renfroe, so there is no reason either starts a game off-handed.

[notin]

I think having Renfroe hit against RHP is setting him up to fail. He just can't hit RHP.

 

Cordero looks lost right now, but I'd still take him over Renfroe against RHP. I think there's a chance Cordero gets optioned in May if he doesn't turn it around.

 

I'm not pleased with what the plan was for the corner OF. My guess it's just a stop gap before they bring up Duran midseason. Also, Cordero and Renfroe are cheap enough that you could waive them if it doesn't get any better. s***, both Franchy and Renfroe still have options.

 

 

Why would you waive them if they still have options? To release them? Other than Duran, the Sox don't have anyone in the minors that you look at and think "We need to get THIS GUY a shot."...

[mvp 78]

They should have platooned from day one, but certainly by now, the writing is on the wall.

 

With Arroyo on his way winning the 2B job FT, Kike can play OF.

 

Marwin is doing better than both Cordero & Renfroe, so there is no reason either starts a game off-handed.

 

There shouldn't be a reason.

[mvp 78]

Why would you waive them if they still have options? To release them? Other than Duran, the Sox don't have anyone in the minors that you look at and think "We need to get THIS GUY a shot."...

 

I said that and then checked that they have options. Duh. Would Puello look any worse than Franchy or Hunter right now? Does a healthy Danny Santana take one of their spots?

[kenmeister]

Losing Betts is a disaster IMO, but that wasn't Bloom's call.

 

Verdugo is so good that you can't call the trade a disaster, in my opinion. Choose a less bad word

[moonslav59]

Renfroe has a long enough record of success vs LHPs, and he is over .700, this year on that split, so we just need to put him in situations where he can be successful. I would not send him down. (Plus AAA has not started, so he won't be playing any games, if optioned.)

 

Cordero is a wildcard. To me, he should get a longer look, but the concern level is reaching the tipping point. Maybe once AAA starts, we can let him work out some issues there, but for now, start him vs some RHPs, and let Marwin play sometimes.