A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Whitlock is likely one of the main reasons they're going with 14 pitchers. Because they're only using him in very specific situations where he can pitch multiple innings.

 

He is second on the team in RP'er innings.

 

He has saved 2-3 pitchers from needing to pitch in the games he pitches. He's a reason we need 12 not 13, and certainly not 14.

[Bellhorn04]

He is second on the team in RP'er innings.

 

He has saved 2-3 pitchers from needing to pitch in the games he pitches. He's a reason we need 12 not 13, and certainly not 14.

 

Maybe it's not all about how many we "need". Maybe they just figure it will pay off over the course of the season, with guys pitching less innings they'll be better rested. And of course there were concerns about fatigue coming into the year after the shortened 2020 season.

 

The bottom line is that Cora and company have their reasons.

[Kimmi]

All of you keep talking about hitting where they're most comfortable.

 

Has anyone ever asked Kike where he wants to bat? It was not his idea to lead off. It was his coach.

 

We're not consistent in our thought process.

 

“I like hitting leadoff. I’m not going to lie to you,” Hernández said. “I want to hit leadoff. Alex (Cora) challenged me to earn that spot. And I feel like when I hit in the first inning, I’m a little bit more involved in the game. And it also gives me a chance to see the starting pitcher maybe a third time.”

[Kimmi]

Our 2-3-4-5 hitters:

 

Verdugo - Thanks Bloom!

JDM - Thanks Dave!

Bogey - Thanks Theo!

Raffy - Thanks Ben!

 

That's about as good of a 2-5 as you're going to see.

[Kimmi]

And it wasn't that long ago that carrying 12 pitchers was normal. Now we are supposed to carry 14?

 

Yes.

 

I love having 14 pitchers.

[Kimmi]

New normal, I guess.

 

The league average for innings pitched per games started has been steadily declining over at least the past 5 years. Much of that is undoubtedly due to the opener and the bullpen games, but the fact is, relief pitchers are taking on a bigger role than they have in the past. Hence, more relievers are needed.

 

Here are average number of innings pitched by the starter since 2015:

 

2015: 5.8

2016: 5.7

2017: 5.5

2018: 5.3

2019: 5.0

2020: 4.7

2021: Currently 5.0

[Nick]

“I like hitting leadoff. I’m not going to lie to you,” Hernández said. “I want to hit leadoff. Alex (Cora) challenged me to earn that spot. And I feel like when I hit in the first inning, I’m a little bit more involved in the game. And it also gives me a chance to see the starting pitcher maybe a third time.”

 

when did he lead off prior to this season?

[moonslav59]

when did he lead off prior to this season?

 

Well, he's got 90 PAs, this season at lead off, and 380 career, so exactly 290.

 

Career:

443 7th .672 OPS

380 1st .774

377 8th .772

201 2nd .793

197 6th .771

179 5th .756

 

(Before this year, the first slot was his 3rd most common batting slot.

 

Looks like 1st and second are his best slots. (That's not the same as saying it's good enough to lead off for a winning team.)

 

Note: he has a .960 OPS as the first batter of the game.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yes.

 

I love having 14 pitchers.

 

I'd love to have a decent PH'er and late inning defensive replacement or two...

[Maxbialystock]

I'd love to have a decent PH'er and late inning defensive replacement or two...

 

A decent hitter would already be in the lineup. Too many defensive weak spots to fix with one or two defensive replacements. My impression of the current team is the only real criterion for being in the lineup is a presumed or actual ability to hit. I can think of no one who is the lineup for his defense. Indeed, my suspicion is that the best defensive player is the computer program that determines player placements on defense.

 

Other than the computer program, my guess is that pitching is the key to the Sox defense.

[moonslav59]

A decent hitter would already be in the lineup. Too many defensive weak spots to fix with one or two defensive replacements. My impression of the current team is the only real criterion for being in the lineup is a presumed or actual ability to hit. I can think of no one who is the lineup for his defense. Indeed, my suspicion is that the best defensive player is the computer program that determines player placements on defense.

 

Other than the computer program, my guess is that pitching is the key to the Sox defense.

 

The worst part is, our worst 3 hitters in the line-up are also defensively challenged.

 

Maybe the late inning defensive replacement is the better route, and who knows, maybe they outhit the ones they replace.

 

(Like Marisnick- the guy I wanted all winter long.)

[Elktonnick]

The worst part is, our worst 3 hitters in the line-up are also defensively challenged.

 

Maybe the late inning defensive replacement is the better route, and who knows, maybe they outhit the ones they replace.

 

(Like Marisnick- the guy I wanted all winter long.)

It may only be April 26, but the Red Sox are the only team in the ALE with a winning record and the Yankees are in last place. Enjoy it while it lasts. BTW just finished watching the Orioles beat the Yankees. I realized watching the Yankees lose is almost as much fun as watching the Red Sox win.

[Larry Cook]

The league average for innings pitched per games started has been steadily declining over at least the past 5 years. Much of that is undoubtedly due to the opener and the bullpen games, but the fact is, relief pitchers are taking on a bigger role than they have in the past. Hence, more relievers are needed.

 

Here are average number of innings pitched by the starter since 2015:

 

2015: 5.8

2016: 5.7

2017: 5.5

2018: 5.3

2019: 5.0

2020: 4.7

2021: Currently 5.0

 

Did that collection of broken rubbers we called a starting pitching staff in 2020 really last over four innings per start? Each inning seemed like a decade! All those bad pitches and meatballs. It was a terrible sight s as d remains a terrible memory!

[illinoisredsox]

Did that collection of broken rubbers we called a starting pitching staff in 2020 really last over four innings per start? Each inning seemed like a decade! All those bad pitches and meatballs. It was a terrible sight s as d remains a terrible memory!

 

Pretty sure Kimmi was quoting MLB averages, not the 2020 Sox starters.

[moonslav59]

It may only be April 26, but the Red Sox are the only team in the ALE with a winning record and the Yankees are in last place. Enjoy it while it lasts. BTW just finished watching the Orioles beat the Yankees. I realized watching the Yankees lose is almost as much fun as watching the Red Sox win.

 

Oh, I'm loving this!

 

I did not project a 90 loss team, like someone did, here.

 

I thought we could compete for a WC, if nearly everything went right. I also pointed out the rest of the AL had massive holes and question marks, too.

 

What is surprising is that only JD is way above some of the numbers he put up recently. ERod, Bogey, Devers and Verdugo are not really doing anything shocking. Maybe, Eovaldi is, but we paid the guy $17M x 4 in hopes he could put together a good full season or two. Okay, Barnes is surprising many of us, but the guy had better numbers than many want to admit, before this year. Whitlock is a gem in the rough. Arroyo is playing better than expected, but this is no way like 2013's over-achieving team.

 

Look at how many batters are hitting way below their career norms or expectations: Renfroe, Cordero, Plawecki and to some extent Kike, Marwin & Dalbec.

 

Richards, Perez, Taylor and Brice have not done well.

 

[moonslav59]

We are about 1/7th of the way through the season, and let's see how many players are clearly over-achieving and may realistically be expected to regress to the norm:

 

1.199 JD- The guy did hit 1.066 in '17 and 1.031 in '18, so although this is 130-160 points higher than those seasons, it's not really a gross over-achievement, thus far.

 

.975 Bogey- He's in peak prime and hit .939 in '19. No surprise, here. He could even end up higher.

 

.908 Verdugo- He's still nearing peak prime and has been on the rise every season from his rookie year. Some may find a jump from .844 in '20 to .908 extreme, but not me.

 

.907 Devers- Call me biased, but I have been projecting a monster year by Devers at some point between ages 25-29, maybe more than just one season. He hit .917 in '19, so it should not shock anyone, if he ends up over 1.000.

 

.771 Arroyo- Maybe the best candidate beyond JD for "regression," but the guy did hit .736, last year, so this isn't really surprising.

 

.727 Kike- Pretty much what should have been expected. (I expected better CF defense, but that's me.) He hit .744 from '17-'20,so maybe we can expect better?

 

.692 Vaz- Vaz had a .798 OPS from '19-'20. This is a disappointment. I expect an improvement, here. He did hit .540 in '18,so who knows?

 

.677 Marwin- The "trash can season" has made it difficult to judge his highest upside, but he did hit over .733 in both '18 & '19. Once could expect an improvement, even in a season where hitting is down.

 

.646 Dalbec- Hard to know what this kid can and will do. I love his ability to get on base- not just his power, but he has struggled out of the gate. I'd like to think he's better than a coin flip, but we do have Marwin, Chavis and maybe even Ockimey/Casas in the wings.

 

.510 Cordero- No way anyone can project his future. He's certainly shown better than this, but his sample sizes are so scattered, it's impossible to much of anything.

 

.496 Renfroe- This guy has killed lefties for years. He really shouldn't play much once a righty comes in, but with a limited bench, he has been forced to play beyond his means. He's actually over .740 vs lefties, this year, so maybe, if we start using Marwin and Kike in the OF more often, we can get him into a platoon routine.

 

.471 Plawecki- The guy hit .708 from '17-'20, a very respectable number for a back-up catcher, these days.

 

So, these guys have sucked on D and not been good at base running. Can anyone honestly look at the totality of this group and say they have been overachieving, so far?

 

Now, the pitching is another story. I'll do a data dive on them, first thing in the morning, but again, you might be surprised how unsurprising some of our pitching overachievers really are.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'd love to have a decent PH'er and late inning defensive replacement or two...

 

As a general rule, pinch hitters suck.

 

Take a look at the MLB-wide batting splits for each year.

 

Pinch hitters do consistently lousy. It's crazy how bad the numbers are, actually.

[oldtimer]

We are about 1/7th of the way through the season, and let's see how many players are clearly over-achieving and may realistically be expected to regress to the norm:

 

1.199 JD- The guy did hit 1.066 in '17 and 1.031 in '18, so although this is 130-160 points higher than those seasons, it's not really a gross over-achievement, thus far.

 

.975 Bogey- He's in peak prime and hit .939 in '19. No surprise, here. He could even end up higher.

 

.908 Verdugo- He's still nearing peak prime and has been on the rise every season from his rookie year. Some may find a jump from .844 in '20 to .908 extreme, but not me.

 

.907 Devers- Call me biased, but I have been projecting a monster year by Devers at some point between ages 25-29, maybe more than just one season. He hit .917 in '19, so it should not shock anyone, if he ends up over 1.000.

 

.771 Arroyo- Maybe the best candidate beyond JD for "regression," but the guy did hit .736, last year, so this isn't really surprising.

 

.727 Kike- Pretty much what should have been expected. (I expected better CF defense, but that's me.) He hit .744 from '17-'20,so maybe we can expect better?

 

.692 Vaz- Vaz had a .798 OPS from '19-'20. This is a disappointment. I expect an improvement, here. He did hit .540 in '18,so who knows?

 

.677 Marwin- The "trash can season" has made it difficult to judge his highest upside, but he did hit over .733 in both '18 & '19. Once could expect an improvement, even in a season where hitting is down.

 

.646 Dalbec- Hard to know what this kid can and will do. I love his ability to get on base- not just his power, but he has struggled out of the gate. I'd like to think he's better than a coin flip, but we do have Marwin, Chavis and maybe even Ockimey/Casas in the wings.

 

.510 Cordero- No way anyone can project his future. He's certainly shown better than this, but his sample sizes are so scattered, it's impossible to much of anything.

 

.496 Renfroe- This guy has killed lefties for years. He really shouldn't play much once a righty comes in, but with a limited bench, he has been forced to play beyond his means. He's actually over .740 vs lefties, this year, so maybe, if we start using Marwin and Kike in the OF more often, we can get him into a platoon routine.

 

.471 Plawecki- The guy hit .708 from '17-'20, a very respectable number for a back-up catcher, these days.

 

So, these guys have sucked on D and not been good at base running. Can anyone honestly look at the totality of this group and say they have been overachieving, so far?

 

Now, the pitching is another story. I'll do a data dive on them, first thing in the morning, but again, you might be surprised how unsurprising some of our pitching overachievers really are.

 

 

Does anyone else remember willie Mo Pena? Good athlete, super raw power, rare contact. We got off his bandwagon fairly quickly. Is Codero another Willie Mo?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes.

 

I love having 14 pitchers.

 

I don't necessary love it or not love it.

 

But I'm confident that the team has valid reasons for going this route.

[Bellhorn04]

He is second on the team in RP'er innings.

 

He has saved 2-3 pitchers from needing to pitch in the games he pitches. He's a reason we need 12 not 13, and certainly not 14.

 

Disagree 100%.

 

Whitlock pitched on the 4th, 8th, 14th, 19th and 23rd.

 

Big gaps between appearances. Which means most games he's 100% unavailable.

 

It's having an extra pitcher that enables them to use him like this.

[notin]

Disagree 100%.

 

Whitlock pitched on the 4th, 8th, 14th, 19th and 23rd.

 

Big gaps between appearances. Which means most games he's 100% unavailable.

 

It's having an extra pitcher that enables them to use him like this.

 

At what point do we make it sound like we built the roster around a Rule 5 pick?

 

They very likely wanted more pitching depth because no one threw much last year and they figured a rash of injuries or fatigue were likely. The biggest problem I have with carrying 14 pitchers is two of them are Taylor and Brice...

[moonslav59]

Disagree 100%.

 

Whitlock pitched on the 4th, 8th, 14th, 19th and 23rd.

 

Big gaps between appearances. Which means most games he's 100% unavailable.

 

It's having an extra pitcher that enables them to use him like this.

 

Bottom line: long relievers save others from having to pitch- sometimes 3-4 others.

 

He's second in relief IP.

 

It's the same a saying SP'ers who go long into games save the pen, despite only pitching every 5 days.

 

When has the 14th pitcher ever come into play? When have we had a time where we were even down to only 2-3 guys to choose from, and if we were, we knew ahead of time, so we could have brought a pitcher up, like we did on the DBL header games- where we get a 27th man, anyway.

 

The only advantage I see with 14 pitchers is that it allows Cora a wider range of pitchers to choose one who is most likely to be successful. That is significant, but so is having a PH'er for a .490 batter or a late inning defensive replacement for anyone of about 3 or 4 bad to awful defenders.

 

[moonslav59]

At what point do we make it sound like we built the roster around a Rule 5 pick?

 

They very likely wanted more pitching depth because no one threw much last year and they figured a rash of injuries or fatigue were likely. The biggest problem I have with carrying 14 pitchers is two of them are Taylor and Brice...

 

You used to add Valdez to that list.

 

With so many April days off, the 27th man rule for DHRs, and the ability to call a pitcher up in a matter of hours, made the 14th pitcher unneccesary.

[Bellhorn04]

At what point do we make it sound like we built the roster around a Rule 5 pick?

 

Of course they didn't build the roster around him.

 

But under the current bizarre circumstances of MLB, this seems to be working out pretty damn good with him.

[Bellhorn04]

The only advantage I see with 14 pitchers is that it allows Cora a wider range of pitchers to choose one who is most likely to be successful. That is significant, but so is having a PH'er for a .490 batter or a late inning defensive replacement for anyone of about 3 or 4 bad to awful defenders.

 

It also gives Cora more pitchers to use in blowouts. You still have to cover the innings in non-meaningful situations.

 

The net result is that in September, the good relievers will all have pitched a few less innings than they normally would have by that point.

[moonslav59]

It also gives Cora more pitchers to use in blowouts. You still have to cover the innings in non-meaningful situations.

 

The net result is that in September, the good relievers will all have pitched a few less innings than they normally would have by that point.

 

That is a good point, but the thing is, they haven't done that. Most of our best RP'ers have gone about 10-11 innings and we are 1/7th through the season translates to 70+ IP- not the usual 60-65 IP.

 

We've had a few days off and now have 2 in 8 days and 3 in something like 18 days. I could see if our starters were lasting 2-3 innings, then I'd call up the 14th guy quickly, but we've haven't come close to needing 14.

 

To me, we have had several times where a PH'er or defensive replacement would have been very helpful.

[moonslav59]

Of course they didn't build the roster around him.

 

But under the current bizarre circumstances of MLB, this seems to be working out pretty damn good with him.

 

I can see carrying 14 pitchers, if the plan was to never use Whitlock, except maybe a few innings here and there in blow-outs, but once we found out that ain't happening, the need for 14 vanished.

[Bellhorn04]

I can see carrying 14 pitchers, if the plan was to never use Whitlock, except maybe a few innings here and there in blow-outs, but once we found out that ain't happening, the need for 14 vanished.

 

You say you trust Cora, but you've been questioning this like crazy.

 

My approach is that since I trust Cora, I try to figure out what his reasoning is.

[notin]

Of course they didn't build the roster around him.

 

But under the current bizarre circumstances of MLB, this seems to be working out pretty damn good with him.

 

I know that, but it sounds like it when he becomes the justification for carrying 14 pitchers.

 

Really most teams that have the 4 bench players have that one player that has been rostered all month and still only has somewhere between 5 and 8 plate appearances. The Sox just cut out that guy and used another bullpen pitcher.

 

I just wonder what happened to the rule from 2020 that teams could have 26 man rosters but not more than 13 pitchers...

[moonslav59]

You say you trust Cora, but you've been questioning this like crazy.

 

My approach is that since I trust Cora, I try to figure out what his reasoning is.

 

To me Cora is still the best manager we've ever had. Better than Tito, yes, but I'm not arguing that one again.

 

That doesn't mean I don't have differing opinions, and I don't see voicing my differing opinions as saying Cora sucks or is even wrong on this issue.

 

There are advantages to having 14 pitchers. He has a wider choice on who to bring in for various situations. That's something hard to measure. I trust he knows what he's doing, and I think Bloom & Cora are just what this team needed after 2019.

 

If I were the manager, I'd be doing somethings differently. That doesn't mean it would work or that I'm better than Cora or Bloom. I know I'm not. Not even close. I've been wrong so many times, I lost count. I might flout my opinions like wanting Marisnick, but I know that overall, I'm not match for these two pros.

 

I think I know what Cora's reasoning is, and they have merit. That's why I don't view my criticism as bashing or trying to downplay how good Cora (or Bloom) is.

 

Looking at the amount of holes this team had after 2019 and 2020, and the limited winter spending budget handed to Bloom, it's amazing how quickly our 40 man roster depth was improved, how are farm went from 29th or 30th to maybe 19th or 20th, and we have a winning and exciting ball club on the field, right now.

 

A huge credit needs to go out to Bloom and Cora. That does not mean every move they made or make is perfect. Even they would admit mistakes have and will be made, but these two are held in the highest esteem by this poster, right here.