A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

The Yankees look finished

 

New York Post Headline

[cp176]

This could be one of the first signs our new guys are changing the tune on finding and developing fine young pitchers.

 

I'm not sure, if they should get credit for "developing" or putting the finishing touches on Houck, but did anyone expect anything from him back when DD and his farm crew were in charge?

 

From Houck ? Yes I expected big things from him. I like what Chaim is doing here as well but lots of good stuff was also done before his arrival.

[Bellhorn04]

To that end, I think Hang’em Chaim needs to give, whoever it was in the baseball analytics department that said we need to take Whitlock in the rule 5 draft, a huge raise! That guy wins find of the year.

 

Unfortunately that guy was let go. His name is Bob Hamelin. There was a nice story on him in the Globe. They should hire him back or give him a fat bonus or something.

[Bellhorn04]

From Houck ? Yes I expected big things from him. I like what Chaim is doing here as well but lots of good stuff was also done before his arrival.

 

Yep, Houck and Duran were both drafted by DD.

[Bellhorn04]

The Yankees look finished

 

New York Post Headline

 

If the Yankees win tonight, the headline will say something like "Yankees not quite dead yet".

[moonslav59]

From Houck ? Yes I expected big things from him. I like what Chaim is doing here as well but lots of good stuff was also done before his arrival.

 

You expected big things from Houck back in 2019?

[oldtimer]

If the Yankees win tonight, the headline will say something like "Yankees not quite dead yet".

 

What will they say if the Yankees lose with their Ace on the mound?

[Bellhorn04]

What will they say if the Yankees lose with their Ace on the mound?

 

"Put a Fork in These Yankees" would be my first guess.

[moonslav59]

"Put a Fork in These Yankees" would be my first guess.

 

Tomorrow's NY Post headline:

 

"Fork Inserted!"

 

[Nick]

Enigma...how will the Yankees rebuild?

 

They do have an ace in G Cole, $36M for another 7 years.

 

Stanton is already getting booed...$25M tax hit for another 6 years. (he's actually getting paid north of that)

 

Gary Sanchez...how much longer will he catch? A3 looming this year.

 

LeMahieu...$15M a year for another 5 years....looks like an overpay for singles hitter at age 32.

 

Wasn't Torrez the next great shortstop?

 

They dodged a bullet with Kluber....one year deal ....health concerns, no?

 

Aaron Judge..making $10.75M this year, probably get to $18-$20M for A3? It's going to cost Yankees $30M at some point. Would he ever want to leave NY? Go to say.......the Dodgers?

Edited July 17, 2021 by Nick

[a700hitter]

Does anyone know if the Red Sox were one of the teams to attend the Cole Hamels’ Showcase?

[moonslav59]

Does anyone know if the Red Sox were one of the teams to attend the Cole Hamels’ Showcase?

 

A simple Google search shows yes.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/cole-hamels-to-hold-showcase-for-interested-teams-next-week.html

[moonslav59]

Enigma...how will the Yankees rebuild?

 

They do have an ace in G Cole, $36M for another 7 years.

 

Stanton is already getting booed...$25M tax hit for another 6 years. (he's actually getting paid north of that)

 

Gary Sanchez...how much longer will he catch? A3 looming this year.

 

LeMahieu...$15M a year for another 5 years....looks like an overpay for singles hitter at age 32.

 

Wasn't Torrez the next great shortstop?

 

They dodged a bullet with Kluber....one year deal ....health concerns, no?

 

Aaron Judge..making $10.75M this year, probably get to $18-$20M for A3? It's going to cost Yankees $30M at some point. Would he ever want to leave NY? Go to say.......the Dodgers?

 

Toores should play 2B, where he would be more than fine.

 

LeMahieu should play 1B, where lack of power diminishes his comparative value, there.

 

The Marlins are paying $3M a year on Stanton's deal, so it's not a bad deal, if he can stay healthy.

 

Although Hicks is just making $10M, that seems like an overpay, too- all the way to 2025!

 

Judge has one more arb, and many players are FAs after 2022.

 

Their window might have been 2022-2023, and they are blowing one of those seasons.

[Hugh2]

Yankees have a top 10 farm, and if they become sellers at the deadline they could get some elite prospects and shed payroll.

 

You know they’ll spend that money quick.

 

I almost wish the Yankees were a little less sucky so they’d drain their farm instead but I can settle for just sweeping them all year.

[dannycater]

Sox went from worst staff to best staff almost overnight...Bloom GM of the Year, JD Comeback Player of the Year, Houck is a sensation, Renfroe, Kike, Arroyo turned into viable starters, Barnes/Eavoldi All-Stars, and can't say enough about the tag team of Devers-Bogie.

[moonslav59]

"Best staff?"

[Maxbialystock]

The Yankees look finished

 

New York Post Headline

 

They prefer headlines that scream. That said, they are in a bind right now, and jacksonianmarch agrees with the NY Post.

[Maxbialystock]

If the Yankees win tonight, the headline will say something like "Yankees not quite dead yet".

 

Not quite. In the immortal words of Miracle Max, a devout Yankees fan, they would be only be "mostly dead." Still to soon to take the change out of their pockets.

[Nick]

Fyi...Bloom is not the GM

[Maxbialystock]

"Best staff?"

 

Well, almost. In terms of team ERA, the Sox do have the 4th best staff in the AL East.

 

It's all in how you look at it. Indeed, on last night's game thread, you posted a Sox stats laydown that indicated a 4 man postseason rotation that looks pretty good assuming Sale is still Sale, Eovaldi keeps up the good work, the resurgent ERod doesn't backslide, and Pivetta/Houck/Perez can do OK. Plus what now looks like a very good bullpen--Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez, and of course Houck.

[moonslav59]

Well, almost. In terms of team ERA, the Sox do have the 4th best staff in the AL East.

 

It's all in how you look at it. Indeed, on last night's game thread, you posted a Sox stats laydown that indicated a 4 man postseason rotation that looks pretty good assuming Sale is still Sale, Eovaldi keeps up the good work, the resurgent ERod doesn't backslide, and Pivetta/Houck/Perez can do OK. Plus what now looks like a very good bullpen--Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez, and of course Houck.

 

When you overlook the “recency affect” Pivetta & Perez have pitched like our ace for much of the season.

[Maxbialystock]

An idle, no doubt useless thought. Right now I am way more enthusiastic about bringing up Houck than bringing up Duran. Last night impressed me even though the Yankees lineup is its weakest in years, maybe decades. If Houck can keep this up--he does seem to have a good array of pitches--I can see all kinds of uses for him.

 

Duran, however, has yet to demonstrate he is MLB caliber or even that he is needed. Despite Verdugo's downturn, he is still likely better than Duran and certainly so in the field where Duran has speed, but no arm and no judgment on where balls are going. I do like Duran's lefty bat, which the Sox have in short supply, but need to see him actually hit MLB pitching even though I am also aware that both he and opposing pitchers will make adjustments over time and much depends on how well he adjusts to all that nasty stuff that will be thrown at him.

 

It is precisely because of my concerns that I now think this is the time to bring him up and, more importantly, to play him as much as possible. He is about the same age as Ellsbury--and 1" taller and 30 lbs heavier--when he was brought up in 2007 and became an instant success.

[Nick]

An idle, no doubt useless thought. Right now I am way more enthusiastic about bringing up Houck than bringing up Duran. Last night impressed me even though the Yankees lineup is its weakest in years, maybe decades. If Houck can keep this up--he does seem to have a good array of pitches--I can see all kinds of uses for him.

 

Duran, however, has yet to demonstrate he is MLB caliber or even that he is needed. Despite Verdugo's downturn, he is still likely better than Duran and certainly so in the field where Duran has speed, but no arm and no judgment on where balls are going. I do like Duran's lefty bat, which the Sox have in short supply, but need to see him actually hit MLB pitching even though I am also aware that both he and opposing pitchers will make adjustments over time and much depends on how well he adjusts to all that nasty stuff that will be thrown at him.

 

It is precisely because of my concerns that I now think this is the time to bring him up and, more importantly, to play him as much as possible. He is about the same age as Ellsbury--and 1" taller and 30 lbs heavier--when he was brought up in 2007 and became an instant success.

 

You'll never know if he can hit major league pitching until he actually appears in major league games.

 

I'm grateful that in the midst of pennant race, we're able to watch and assess our younger players.

[dgalehouse]

Hard to believe that just three months ago, nearly everyone thought the Yankees were the better team. Now , the Sox are riding high, and the Yanks are a total mess. A disaster area. Goes to show you never can tell.

[moonslav59]

You'll never know if he can hit major league pitching until he actually appears in major league games.

 

...and even then, a hot or cold start should not define him or be an indicator of what we can expect later in the year, in 2022 and beyond.

[Maxbialystock]

When you overlook the “recency affect” Pivetta & Perez have pitched like our ace for much of the season.

 

"Recency effect" has done more to Perez than Pivetta. Pivetta has sometimes looked like an ace, but not Perez. Thus Pivetta has 6 quality starts and Perez 3. Perez has had one good month, May: 5 starts, ERA 2.60, 2 quality starts, 27.2 innings pitched.

[iortiz]

Houk and Duran and eventually Cordero and Sale could turn out as a pack and enough help to play the second half and eventually the POs. Edited July 17, 2021 by iortiz

[moonslav59]

"Recency effect" has done more to Perez than Pivetta. Pivetta has sometimes looked like an ace, but not Perez. Thus Pivetta has 6 quality starts and Perez 3. Perez has had one good month, May: 5 starts, ERA 2.60, 2 quality starts, 27.2 innings pitched.

 

Perez has been yanked earlier than any other starter, and sometimes while doing well or pretty good, hence the few QSs.

 

He's had these non QS outings

 

IP ER

5.0 2

5.2 1

5.2 2

5.0 1

5.1 2

5.1 1

 

He's had good stretches beyond just one month:

 

From April 29th to June 3rd (7 starts) he was our best starter:

1.98 ER

.587 OPS Against

41IP

34 H

9 BB

37 K

 

After his two bad starts on June 8th & 13th (2IP 6 ER/ 1.1 IP 5 ER), he has been fine:

 

2.74 ERA (but a bad OPS Against .837, so maybe lucky)

23.0 IP

30 H

7 BB

15 K

 

So, he's really only been bad, in terms of allowing rund his first 4 games and 2 starts in early June.

 

He has had a 7 and 4 game stretch of doing well.

 

Pivetta's bad starts seem more scattered.

 

Overall:

 

M Perez 115 ERA+/ .791 OPS Against/ 1.476 WHIP

Pivetta 108 ERA+/ .722 OPS Against/ 1.277 WHIP

 

Maybe Perez has used smoke and mirrors to have a better ERA, but he still has time to win that 4th slot behind Sale, Eovaldi and ERod for that last slot in the playoff rotation.

 

[sk7326]

It was nice to see Rodriguez get the win - he has been arguably THE unluckiest pitcher in the league this season - where the gap between his ERA and his underlying fundamentals is the widest.

 

The shopping list is very clear this time around. If they can get another innings eating starter ... with or without Sale's return being included, and then if they can find one more bat to balance out the bottom of the order. This definitely has the feel of a 2013 team, where some versatile unsexy pieces along with a couple of guys bouncing back from surprisingly terrible seasons has given us a contender again.

[Maxbialystock]

It was nice to see Rodriguez get the win - he has been arguably THE unluckiest pitcher in the league this season - where the gap between his ERA and his underlying fundamentals is the widest.

 

The shopping list is very clear this time around. If they can get another innings eating starter ... with or without Sale's return being included, and then if they can find one more bat to balance out the bottom of the order. This definitely has the feel of a 2013 team, where some versatile unsexy pieces along with a couple of guys bouncing back from surprisingly terrible seasons has given us a contender again.

 

I'm not seeing that. No way do I not see Sale as returning to form this year. He and Eovaldi should be very tough, especially backed up by Pivetta and I think ERod. Plus backing them up are Perez and Richards and Houck, plus a very good bullpen.

 

You mention 2013, which was when the Sox picked up Peavy--blehhh. He pitched 12.2 innings in the postseason with an ERA of 7.11.

 

Bottom line: I think Sale and Houck are enough to shore up the pitching and banish Richards from doing much more damage.

 

And I'm hoping Duran will be the additional bat.