A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Obviously there's a stud at 1B from Toronto, but

 

Most disconcerting thing about our 1B production is that our team OPS at the position is .393 behind the leader. There are 4 AL teams with OPS greater than .800.

 

Compare that position to catching, where the Sox are close to bottom but the difference between the top spot and the Sox is only .144. There are no teams posting ops greater than .800 in the American League.

 

Not sure how to fix it now that Arroyo is hurt and I doubt he returns to that position this year.

 

I wanted so much for Dalbec to succeed but he looks completely lost at times.

 

"Lost" too many times, for sure.

 

Had this not been a competitive season, he'd still be out there playing everyday, until we were certain or near certain he was a keeper or not.

 

Same with Cordero.

 

The good news is, we have gained some positive knowledge on Whitlock and Arroyo. Maybe we learn more on Houck, and maybe Dalbec or Cordero start showing signs of life.

[notin]

Winning is still the bottom line. Bloom still has to win one. Same with the much heralded Billy Beane.

 

When you openly voice that the only way to win is by spending, it feels a tad hypercritical to hold against those not allowed to spend for the lack of winning…

[moonslav59]

Is it time to call up Cordero and demote Chavis, again?

 

If Santana is activated, today, do we DFA him?

 

Has the time come to end the Workman era in Boston? If yes, there's not much to call up without adding someone to the 40 (Ort, Schreiber, Brennan, Walden, Gonsalves?)

 

What's up with Phillips Valdez and Connor Seabold?(IL?)

 

[oldtimer]

Is it time to call up Cordero and demote Chavis, again?

 

If Santana is activated, today, do we DFA him?

 

Has the time come to end the Workman era in Boston? If yes, there's not much to call up without adding someone to the 40 (Ort, Schreiber, Brennan, Walden, Gonsalves?)

 

What's up with Phillips Valdez and Connor Seabold?(IL?)

 

 

The trade deadline might determine if some of those guys are even here to call up. It's only a little over a week and by then first base may be filled through trade.We have bigger problems in that quite a few of our core offensive players have gone cold.

[moonslav59]

 

The trade deadline might determine if some of those guys are even here to call up. It's only a little over a week and by then first base may be filled through trade.We have bigger problems in that quite a few of our core offensive players have gone cold.

 

I'm talking right now or in a day or two, and we don't know about Arroyo's injury.

[moonslav59]

Would anyone, here, trade Groome, Ward & Chavis for Jon Gray and CJ Chron?

 

(BTV accepted it.)

 

I think it's a bit too much, but it would solve the possible roster crunch, this winter with Rule 5 and FA additions.

 

Also accepted was Ward, Potts & Chavis.

Edited July 19, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Is it time to call up Cordero and demote Chavis, again?

 

If Santana is activated, today, do we DFA him?

 

Has the time come to end the Workman era in Boston? If yes, there's not much to call up without adding someone to the 40 (Ort, Schreiber, Brennan, Walden, Gonsalves?)

 

What's up with Phillips Valdez and Connor Seabold?(IL?)

 

 

Connor Seabold is pitching again, may have just pitched in his second rehab stint.

[Nick]

My buddy Santana is back in the lineup. Oh Gooody!!!

[moonslav59]

Connor Seabold is pitching again, may have just pitched in his second rehab stint.

 

I thought so, too, but soxprospects lists him as on the IL.

[moonslav59]

My buddy Santana is back in the lineup. Oh Gooody!!!

 

Must be showcasing him to all the 29 teams drooling over him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would be pretty surprised to see R.Hernandez removed from the 40 man roster. Bloom traded for him and thus probably likes him, and it looks like he can hit a little. Bloom traded for him for a reason.

 

Like many teams, the Red Sox have lousy farm system depth at catcher, and this is why some of us wanted Henry Davis. Maybe Nathan Hickey can develop into something, although he sounds like a bat-first catcher.

 

I would be a little more incredulous when it comes to soxprospects' scouting reports. They aren't professional reports, written by professional scouts, but reports that someone on the internet (like us) wrote up. Soxprospects is kind of like reading Fansided or any internet forum--you get some interesting perspectives but we don't really know what the professional people in the Red Sox organization think about Hernandez's defense. Perhaps his defense has fixable flaws or perhaps his defense isn't as bad as soxprospects makes it out to be.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Would anyone, here, trade Groome, Ward & Chavis for Jon Gray and CJ Chron?

 

I would trade for Gray, but I wouldn't want CJ Cron at all, I don't like his home/road splits. I would expect the Red Sox to find a better starting 1b.

 

Gray will be a rental but some team will acquire him at the deadline. He is interesting, very talented arm, and could have a few big seasons in front of him. I would hate to trade Groome for Gray, but I would definitely be on the phone with the Rockies trying to get something done.

 

The Red Sox might be better off signing Gray in the offseason than resigning E-Rod....

Edited July 20, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I would trade for Gray, but I wouldn't want CJ Cron at all, I don't like his home/road splits. I would expect the Red Sox to find a better starting 1b.

 

Gray will be a rental but some team will acquire him at the deadline. He is interesting, very talented arm, and could have a few big seasons in front of him. I would hate to trade Groome for Gray, but I would definitely be on the phone with the Rockies trying to get something done.

 

The Red Sox might be better off signing Gray in the offseason than resigning E-Rod....

 

BTV accepted Ward, POyys and Chavis for Gray & Chron.

 

Also, Ward & Chavis for just Gray.

[Larry Cook]

BTV accepted Ward & Chavis for just Gray.[/b]

 

I would do this in a heartbeat.

[moonslav59]

Big OPS jumps, tonight:

 

.452> .647 Duran

.522> .575 Santana

.732> .765 Kike

.922> .941 JD

.648> .677 Plawecki

 

.769> .773 Renfroe

.752> .753 Verdugo

.916> .916 Devers

 

Bogey .933> .920

 

Kike may pass Renfroe and Arroyo for 4th place in the team OPS standings by tomorrow.

 

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

I'm talking right now or in a day or two, and we don't know about Arroyo's injury.

 

We do know: Arroyo is on the 10 day IL--bad hammie from the stretch at 1b.

[moonslav59]

We do know: Arroyo is on the 10 day IL--bad hammie from the stretch at 1b.

 

I guess my idea of DFA'ing Santana turned out to be brilliant.

 

Maybe I should call for Richards to be DFA'd next.

[moonslav59]

We do know: Arroyo is on the 10 day IL--bad hammie from the stretch at 1b.

 

We might see a Cordero for Chavis swap.

[moonslav59]

AL Records

57-37 CWS

57-38 BOS

57-38 HOU

55-39 TBR

53-42 OAK

 

50-44 SEA

48-43 TOR

48-44 NYY

47-44 CLE

 

We are 1.5 up on the Rays for the ALE crown.

 

We are 6.5 up on the second WC slot.

Edited July 20, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Fangraphs:

 

For all of the things that have gone right for the Red Sox in the wake of last year’s debacle, first base is not one of them. Bobby Dalbec, who hit .263/.359/.600 with eight homers in 92 PA over the final month of last season, has been the regular since Opening Day but has hit just .219/.262/.405 (76 wRC+) with 10 homers and -0.6 WAR. While he’s produced a 16.6% barrel rate and a 91.0 mph average exit velocity, he’s struggled to hit four-seam fastballs (.163 AVG, .313 SLG) to the point that his -8 runs against the pitch places him in the fourth percentile. Both his 4.6% walk rate and 36.9% strikeout rate are similarly extreme and call to mind Eric Longenhagen’s caution from Dalbec’s prospect report: “Short of guys with elite power like Miguel Sanó and Joey Gallo, there’s virtually no precedent for any corner bat to strike out as much as Dalbec does and still have sustained success as an everyday big leaguer.”

 

Neither Michael Chavis nor utilitymen Marwin Gonzalez and Danny Santana — both of whom are currently on the Injured List — have been much better in their limited chances at first. On Sunday night, an experiment with Christian Arroyo playing the position for the first time led to a left hamstring strain after just three innings. Ouch! Gallo is approaching a crossroads in Texas — he has one more year of club control remaining, but his value is at a high coming off a first half that landed him on the All-Star team — and makes sense as a trade target. He has some experience at first base and would help to balance a righty-heavy lineup that features only two lefty-swinging regulars (Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo). But even bringing back Mitch Moreland (now in Oakland) might be preferable to watching Dalbec flail around.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2021-replacement-level-killers-introduction-first-base/

[oldtimer]

We might see a Cordero for Chavis swap.

 

Santana had a really nice game. HR and double, but also a sharply hit ball and a 9 pitch at bat where he finally struck out.

[oldtimer]

Arroyo was playing well. It's a shame about the hamstring. A severe hammy takes 6 weeks to heal. Let's hope it isn't that bad.

[moonslav59]

Santana had a really nice game. HR and double, but also a sharply hit ball and a 9 pitch at bat where he finally struck out.

 

I’m still not convinced, but a glimmer of hope has appeared. I’d still like to see Cordero again.

[mvp 78]

I would be pretty surprised to see R.Hernandez removed from the 40 man roster. Bloom traded for him and thus probably likes him, and it looks like he can hit a little. Bloom traded for him for a reason.

 

Like many teams, the Red Sox have lousy farm system depth at catcher, and this is why some of us wanted Henry Davis. Maybe Nathan Hickey can develop into something, although he sounds like a bat-first catcher.

 

I would be a little more incredulous when it comes to soxprospects' scouting reports. They aren't professional reports, written by professional scouts, but reports that someone on the internet (like us) wrote up. Soxprospects is kind of like reading Fansided or any internet forum--you get some interesting perspectives but we don't really know what the professional people in the Red Sox organization think about Hernandez's defense. Perhaps his defense has fixable flaws or perhaps his defense isn't as bad as soxprospects makes it out to be.

 

Bloom traded him because he was giving up 2 guys he was taking off the 40 man roster (Springs/Mazza). He would have lost Springs and Mazza for nothing otherwise.

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs:

 

Sano has had such an up and down career that it may be a reasonable comp for Dalbec. It's not a player I want starting 1B for the BOSOX.

[mvp 78]

I’m still not convinced, but a glimmer of hope has appeared. I’d still like to see Cordero again.

 

Santana has a long track record of being a mediocre player. He's replaceable.

[moonslav59]

Santana has a long track record of being a mediocre player. He's replaceable.

 

His history shows he really has sucked, except for two seasons.

 

.824 his rookie year in 430 PAs (only 7 HRs but 44 XBHs)

.575 from 2015-2018 in 735 PAs (just 6 HRs)

.857 in 2019 in 511 PAs (28 HRs and 57 XBHs)

.552 from 2020-2021 in 172 PAs (5 HRs and 12 XBHs)

[moonslav59]

SOX OPS Leaders

 

.941 JD

.920 Bogey

.916 Devers

 

.792 Arroyo (IL)

.773 Renfroe

.765 Kike

.753 Verdugo

 

.677 Plawecki

.659 Dalbec

.652 Vaz

.647 Duran (13 PAs)

 

.583 Marwin (IL)

.575 Santana

.530 Chavis (64 PAs)

.501 Cordero (seems so long ago)

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Against Leaderboard

 

.518 Barnes

.562 Ottavino

.599 Whitlock

 

.679 Taylor

.685 Eovaldi

.692 Rios

.705 Houck

.719 DHern

 

.740 Workman

.743 Pivetta

.757 Sawamura

.771 ERod

.794 Perez

 

.853 Richards

 

.942 Andriese

[Kimmi]

Stanton has an 827 OPS this year, LeMahieu has a 715.

 

So I assume your position is that LeMahieu is a better clutch hitter?

 

Pot stirrer.