A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

SoxProspects write up on Houck.....pretty right on, don't you think?

 

Summation: Potential late-inning reliever, with a chance to develop into a back-end starter if his splitter develops to complement his slider and he refines his fastball command. Could also succeed in a multi-inning relief role. Will likely struggle to turn over a lineup of major league-quality hitters with his current pitch mix and mechanics. Arm slot and fastball-slider combination make him extremely difficult on right-handers, but his low arm slot and lack of a third pitch give him trouble against lefties. Splitter is a new addition to his arsenal, but it has shown potential against left-handed hitters, which will be vital to chances stick in the starting rotation. Has the size and demeanor you look for in a pitcher; able to bear down when necessary.

 

It certainly reads well. I myself am a big believer in having a splitter, which is a little like a changeup, but comes in faster and works against righty or left hitters. I think Eovaldi is throwing one for the first time this season.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

We can probably forget about Jose Berrios:

 

The Twins have indicated to opposing teams they’re not keen on trading players under team control beyond this season, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). That’s not to say Minnesota’s cutting off talks on longer-term assets entirely, but it casts increasing doubt about the likelihood of stars like Byron Buxton and José Berríos — both of whom are controllable next season via arbitration — changing uniforms within the next couple weeks.

 

That’s a defensible and generally unsurprising position for the Twins front office to take. While the 2021 season has been a disaster for Minnesota, there’s little reason to think the club needs to embark on any sort of rebuild. The Twins won the AL Central in each of the last two years, and much of the core of those teams is controllable for 2022. At 39-52, the Twins are almost certainly not playoff-bound this season, but there’s enough talent on the roster to reasonably expect a bounceback next year.

 

The Mets and Cardinals are among the teams to have reached out to gauge Berríos’ availability. Both clubs have come away from those talks feeling the asking price to be extremely high, a reflection of Minnesota’s comfort hanging onto Berríos with an eye towards 2022.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-reportedly-disinclined-to-trade-players-controllable-beyond-2021.html

 

I'm starting to go back to the idea of trading for C.Kimbrel and not a starting pitcher. The postseason rotation would be something like this:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. ???

4. ???

 

With Houck, Pivetta, E-Rod, and Perez competing against each other for the third and fourth postseason rotation spots. I'm in general agreement with the idea that the Red Sox need a starting pitcher more than a relief arm, but if the available trade market SPs don't represent a clear upgrade why bother trading for one? I realize that Kyle Gibson would be an upgrade based on current statistics but do we have total confidence in Kyle Gibson? I could see Gibosn having a less impressive second half more in line with his career numbers. I would also expect Gibson to be a coveted player on the trade market, requiring multiple prospects and at least one high end prospect. Then again, I suppose C.Kimbrel will be a costly trade acquisition as well.

 

To be sure, the pressure is on Bloom to deliver. A few years ago, Dombrowski made a brilliant move by trading for Eovaldi. Can Bloom do something similar?

Edited July 18, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Maxbialystock]

We can probably forget about Jose Berrios:

 

 

 

I'm starting to go back to the idea of trading for C.Kimbrel and not a starting pitcher. The postseason rotation would be something like this:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. ???

4. ???

 

With Houck, Pivetta, E-Rod, and Perez competing against each other for the third and fourth postseason rotation spots. I'm in general agreement with the idea that the Red Sox need a starting pitcher more than a relief arm, but if the available trade market SPs don't represent a clear upgrade why bother trading for one? I realize that Kyle Gibson would be an upgrade based on current statistics but do we have total confidence in Kyle Gibson? I could see Gibosn having a lousy second half. I would also expect Gibson to be a coveted player on the trade market, requiring multiple prospects and at least one high end prospect. Then again, I suppose C.Kimbrel will be a costly trade acquisition as well.

 

To be sure, the pressure is on Bloom to deliver. A few years ago, Dombrowski made a brilliant move by trading for Eovaldi. Can Bloom do something similar?

 

Heck, if the bonafide Sale is back o/a August 1, I wouldn't trade for any pitching because the Sox will have six starters--Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, ERod, Perez, and Houck--to choose from and a pretty solid bullpen--Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez, Houck, and Workman.

 

When you go after a good starter or a very good closer, the price is always high.

[notin]

Heck, if the bonafide Sale is back o/a August 1, I wouldn't trade for any pitching because the Sox will have six starters--Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, ERod, Perez, and Houck--to choose from and a pretty solid bullpen--Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock, Sawamura, Taylor, Hernandez, Houck, and Workman.

 

When you go after a good starter or a very good closer, the price is always high.

 

 

The price is higher if injuries set in….

[Bellhorn04]

We can probably forget about Jose Berrios:

 

 

 

I'm starting to go back to the idea of trading for C.Kimbrel and not a starting pitcher. The postseason rotation would be something like this:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. ???

4. ???

 

With Houck, Pivetta, E-Rod, and Perez competing against each other for the third and fourth postseason rotation spots. I'm in general agreement with the idea that the Red Sox need a starting pitcher more than a relief arm, but if the available trade market SPs don't represent a clear upgrade why bother trading for one? I realize that Kyle Gibson would be an upgrade based on current statistics but do we have total confidence in Kyle Gibson? I could see Gibosn having a less impressive second half more in line with his career numbers. I would also expect Gibson to be a coveted player on the trade market, requiring multiple prospects and at least one high end prospect. Then again, I suppose C.Kimbrel will be a costly trade acquisition as well.

 

To be sure, the pressure is on Bloom to deliver. A few years ago, Dombrowski made a brilliant move by trading for Eovaldi. Can Bloom do something similar?

 

Kimbrel is simply too pricy. Bloom's forte is finding guys who are underpriced.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

When you go after a good starter or a very good closer, the price is always high.

 

The price will be high for an SP upgrade or a top relief arm but the price will also be high if the Red Sox lose in a 7th game because they didn't give up some precious prospect, who may never develop or live up to expectations, for a shutdown reliever or upgrade to the rotation.

 

A playoff series can sometimes swing one way or the other based on one pitcher. For example, if the Yankees had Andy Pettitte in 2004, maybe they don't lose to the Red Sox in the championship series.

 

I think prospect hugging can sometimes be dangerous--we don't want Bloom to be like Brian Cashman. I like following Red Sox prospects as much as anyone, but prospects should sometimes be used as assets to acquire players to help you win a championship (or increase your odds of winning one).

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Bloom's forte is finding guys who are underpriced.

 

True, but he may need to change or alter that approach somewhat, similar to A.Friedman, who runs the Dodgers differently than how he ran the Rays.

 

Also, even though we all praise the Rays for what they accomplish, we can't overlook an important factor: the Rays have won ZERO championships. They won zero championships under Friedman and they won zero championships during Bloom's tenure.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

The price will be high for an SP upgrade or a top relief arm but the price will also be high if the Red Sox lose in a 7th game because they didn't give up some precious prospect, who may never develop or live up to expectations, for a shutdown reliever or upgrade to the rotation.

 

A playoff series can sometimes swing one way or the other based on one pitcher. For example, if the Yankees had Andy Pettitte in 2004, maybe they don't lose to the Red Sox in the championship series.

 

I think prospect hugging can sometimes be dangerous--we don't want Bloom to be like Brian Cashman. I like following Red Sox prospects as much as anyone, but prospects should sometimes be used as assets to acquire players to help you win a championship (or increase your odds of winning one).

 

Dombrowski did a great job in 2018 without giving up much more than middling prospects.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

True, but Dombrowski was willing to trade better prospects than J.Beeks: the Sale trade, the Kimbrel trade, and the Pomeranz trade.

 

Interestingly, one of Dombrowski's greatest moves was acquiring Sale without giving up Devers. The White Sox wanted Devers but Dombrowski refused. Thus, prospect hugging is sometimes justified, but we also know that so many prospects fall short of expectations.

 

Can we find a starting pitcher on the 2021 trade market who will be a big time contributor in the postseason while only costing a middling prospect? The Eovaldi trade was absolutely brilliant.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[dgalehouse]

Cora has received a lot of credit for the Sox turnaround this year. And rightly so. But he is not above criticism. I would like to hear his explanation for pitching to LaMahieu last night with first base open and Stanton on deck. It made no sense to me.

[sk7326]

Dombrowski did a great job in 2018 without giving up much more than middling prospects.

 

This was an underrated talent Dombrowski had. He was able to look at the Red Sox prospects, many of them in various respected Top 100s (MLB.com, Fangraphs, Keith Law, Baseball America) and make quick up or down votes on the prospects and basically be right. He got the Devers call right - the Benintendi call was right though clearly flamed out quickly. But nobody he traded is anybody the big club has missed - though Moncada is a good player.

[sk7326]

Houck's ability to basically do something to keep lefties off of him is what will determine whether he is Justin Masterson or an actual solid starting pitcher.

[Nick]

The home plate umpire last night had a particularly wide strike zone after a very narrow one the night before. I can understand strikes on balls which nearly touch the strike zone being called strikes but those a couple of inches off have to frustrate hitters. It's particularly tough when a hitter gets rung up on a clear ball in a critical situation. I am still a proponent of technology assisted calling of balls and strikes. I also thought the game should have been delayed last night after the 5th inning as conditions were getting dangerous. I know its an umpire's call, but they appear to have gotten this one wrong.

 

When you have 8-4 games, maybe the calls won't determine the outcome.

 

But last night we had two legit shutdown pitchers (it was for Eovaldi last night) and every mistake mattered.

 

The third strike call against Verdugo was just awful. It made it worse because the home plate umpire was peaking right over the ball.

 

This situation will NEVER get better. We're human beings. We can't be perfect.

 

Just look at how much 'the review' has helped the game.

 

What the f*** was that first base umpire looking at when he called out Renfroe? The ball wasn't even close to being in the mitt when he touched the bag. You could just see the frustration in Cora when calling for review.

 

This is 2021......we have to change it.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

True, but Dombrowski was willing to trade better prospects than J.Beeks: the Sale trade, the Kimbrel trade, and the Pomeranz trade.

 

Interestingly, one of Dombrowski's greatest moves was acquiring Sale without giving up Devers. The White Sox wanted Devers but Dombrowski refused. Thus, prospect hugging is sometimes justified, but we also know that so many prospects fall short of expectations.

 

Can we find a starting pitcher on the 2021 trade market who will be a big time contributor in the postseason while only costing a middling prospect? The Eovaldi trade was absolutely brilliant.

 

And it made sense because of impending free agent year for Porcello.

[Bellhorn04]

Cora has received a lot of credit for the Sox turnaround this year. And rightly so. But he is not above criticism. I would like to hear his explanation for pitching to LaMahieu last night with first base open and Stanton on deck. It made no sense to me.

 

Stanton has an 827 OPS this year, LeMahieu has a 715.

 

So I assume your position is that LeMahieu is a better clutch hitter?

[moonslav59]

True, but he may need to change or alter that approach somewhat, similar to A.Friedman, who runs the Dodgers differently than how he ran the Rays.

 

Also, even though we all praise the Rays for what they accomplish, we can't overlook an important factor: the Rays have won ZERO championships. They won zero championships under Friedman and they won zero championships during Bloom's tenure.

 

Theo, Ben and DD might have had no Sox rings with the budgets theRays had, so I’m not sure it really matters much.

 

Bloom knows talent and developing prospects. I’m hopeful that when he spends big he spends it well- little experience and all

[dgalehouse]

Stanton has an 827 OPS this year, LeMahieu has a 715.

 

So I assume your position is that LeMahieu is a better clutch hitter?

 

LaMahieu is a better hitter in general , the OPS notwithstanding. A base hit ties the game. Stanton has had some awful at bats and looked overmatched against a pitcher like Nate. I think LaMahieu was more dangerous in that situation.

[dgalehouse]

Theo, Ben and DD might have had no Sox rings with the budgets theRays had, so I’m not sure it really matters much.

 

Bloom knows talent and developing prospects. I’m hopeful that when he spends big he spends it well- little experience and all

Winning is still the bottom line. Bloom still has to win one. Same with the much heralded Billy Beane.

[moonslav59]

Winning is still the bottom line. Bloom still has to win one. Same with the much heralded Billy Beane.

 

True, but low budget teams have a huge disadvantage. Now that Bloom no longer has those restrictions he should be judged differently.

[Maxbialystock]

Winning is still the bottom line. Bloom still has to win one. Same with the much heralded Billy Beane.

 

Completely disagree. Bloom and Beane have both shown they can field winning teams with small budgets. They just can't win the WS.

 

But guess what? The Yankees have won 27 WS, but, despite continuing to spend huge amounts for salaries, have won only 1 in the last 20 years, which is just 1 more than the A's, the Rays, the Jays, the Orioles, the Guardians, the Tigers, the Twins, the Mariners, the Rangers, the Mets, the Braves, the Marlins, the Rockies, the Padres, the Pirates, the Reds, and the Brewers.

[moonslav59]

Completely disagree. Bloom and Beane have both shown they can field winning teams with small budgets. They just can't win the WS.

 

But guess what? The Yankees have won 27 WS, but, despite continuing to spend huge amounts for salaries, have won only 1 in the last 20 years, which is just 1 more than the A's, the Rays, the Jays, the Orioles, the Guardians, the Tigers, the Twins, the Mariners, the Rangers, the Mets, the Braves, the Marlins, the Rockies, the Padres, the Pirates, the Reds, and the Brewers.

 

Winning it all can’t be the only thing GMs are judged by, if they run small budget teams, but no rings by Bloom with the Sox would be a failure, IMO.

[sk7326]

True, but he may need to change or alter that approach somewhat, similar to A.Friedman, who runs the Dodgers differently than how he ran the Rays.

 

Also, even though we all praise the Rays for what they accomplish, we can't overlook an important factor: the Rays have won ZERO championships. They won zero championships under Friedman and they won zero championships during Bloom's tenure.

 

I'm not even sure that's true - the Dodgers have a loaded farm system. The approach to the farm is the same - the difference is having the money to go into the free agent pool more aggressively. Ownership wanted Dombrowski to go all in for the title and it worked. Now they want to do something a bit more sustainable like Epstein did - we'll see how it goes. But position-wise the core is pretty good.

[Maxbialystock]

Winning it all can’t be the only thing GMs are judged by, if they run small budget teams, but no rings by Bloom with the Sox would be a failure, IMO.

 

If you count them, you can see I named 17 teams, including the A's and Rays, who haven't won the WS in the last 20 years.

 

That said, however, the now lengthy playoffs have made upsets more likely, which is why 13 different teams have won the WS in the last 20 years. To me that's huge! It should give hope to all kinds of teams. In 2019, for example, the Nationals were the first DC-based team to win the WS in the history of MLB because the old Washington Senators, all three iterations of them, never did. Even better, the Nationals won the WS after dumping Bryce Harper, now with the Phillies.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It's official: Bobby D. will no longer start against RHP.

 

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said prior to Sunday's game against the Yankees that Arroyo will serve as the team's primary first baseman versus right-handed pitching, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports.

 

Arroyo will assume those duties from Bobby Dalbec, who has lost hold of the gig after striking out in 35.5 percent of his plate appearances on the month while posting a poor .484 OPS. Dalbec is still expected to make regular starts versus left-handed pitching, but Arroyo should have a path to playing time against southpaws at second base.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-christian-arroyo-captures-primary-role-at-first-base/

 

I'm not surprised this change was made a day after Dalbec failed to hustle in attempting to catch a foul ball in game 2 against the Yankees. Ultimately, however, this decision was made (or must have been made) due to his lack of offensive production.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

I've been harping about doing everything you can to put your best line up on the field. I've taken some heat but this is what I'm talking about.

1. 2B Kiké Hernández

 

2. LF Alex Verdugo

 

3. DH J.D. Martinez

 

4. SS Xander Bogaerts

 

5. 3B Rafael Devers

 

6. RF Hunter Renfroe

 

7. CF Jarren Duran

 

8. C Christian Vázquez

 

9. 1B Christian Arroyo

 

Who the heck knows. Maybe Duran will be a bust. This looks like it can be our best lineup. Next up is Vaz picking up his game or get someone else next year. Good call with Dalbec. There has to be consequence for not producing. Against lefties, Dalbec in and rotate Verdugo and Duran is my guess.

 

Maybe another cheap bullpen arm for the stretch run.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

It's official: Bobby D. will no longer start against RHP.

 

I'm not surprised this change was made a day after Dalbec failed to hustle in attempting to catch a foul ball in game 2 against the Yankees.

 

It's a very sensible move. Not sure it had anything to do with that play, considering the bad conditions.

[moonslav59]

It's a very sensible move. Not sure it had anything to do with that play, considering the bad conditions.

 

The change was announced, perhaps made earlier.

[Maxbialystock]

I've been harping about doing everything you can to put your best line up on the field. I've taken some heat but this is what I'm talking about.

1. 2B Kiké Hernández

 

2. LF Alex Verdugo

 

3. DH J.D. Martinez

 

4. SS Xander Bogaerts

 

5. 3B Rafael Devers

 

6. RF Hunter Renfroe

 

7. CF Jarren Duran

 

8. C Christian Vázquez

 

9. 1B Christian Arroyo

 

Who the heck knows. Maybe Duran will be a bust. This looks like it can be our best lineup. Next up is Vaz picking up his game or get someone else next year. Good call with Dalbec. There has to be consequence for not producing. Against lefties, Dalbec in and rotate Verdugo and Duran is my guess.

 

Maybe another cheap bullpen arm for the stretch run.

 

Well, guess what? You got your wish and this lineup was/is a complete bust--against Taillon and his 4.60 ERA.

[mvp 78]

Well, guess what? You got your wish and this lineup was/is a complete bust--against Taillon and his 4.60 ERA.

 

DFAurran

[Nick]

Well, guess what? You got your wish and this lineup was/is a complete bust--against Taillon and his 4.60 ERA.

 

Do you have a better one with current roster?