A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

I like this Bloom guy......Christmas in July.

 

The Red Sox have completed their Jan. 18 trade that sent infielder C.J. Chatham to the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

Boston acquired 21-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Victor Santos from Philadelphia on Saturday.

 

Santos, who just turned 21 on July 12, has a 3.05 ERA (20 ⅔ innings, seven earned runs), 1.02 WHIP and .227 batting average against in four starts for Double-A Reading this year.

 

The 6-foot-1, 191 pounder from the Dominican Republic began the season at High-A Jersey Shore where he posted a 1.33 ERA (20 ⅓ innings, three earned runs), 1.08 WHIP and .221 batting average against in nine outings (one start).

 

 

He has impressive control. He has averaged 8.2 strikeouts and 1.3 walks per nine innings in 254 ⅔ innings in the minors.

[Nick]

Hard to believe that just three months ago, nearly everyone thought the Yankees were the better team. Now , the Sox are riding high, and the Yanks are a total mess. A disaster area. Goes to show you never can tell.

 

Yep, on paper I thought we had a pretty good team heading into 2019.

[sk7326]

I'm not seeing that. No way do I not see Sale as returning to form this year. He and Eovaldi should be very tough, especially backed up by Pivetta and I think ERod. Plus backing them up are Perez and Richards and Houck, plus a very good bullpen.

 

You mention 2013, which was when the Sox picked up Peavy--blehhh. He pitched 12.2 innings in the postseason with an ERA of 7.11.

 

Bottom line: I think Sale and Houck are enough to shore up the pitching and banish Richards from doing much more damage.

 

And I'm hoping Duran will be the additional bat.

 

Peavy was not good in the postseason - but he did help them get through the slog of the regular season. Really what the team needs to do now is manage the miles on the bullpen which has been worked very hard. And of course you'd like some depth and insurance in case Whitlock turns into a pumpkin.

 

The team has internal possibilities. But increasing the floor is not a bad idea - assuming the price is okay.

[Nick]

World Series Winners over the Past 20 years....

4 Red Sox

3 Giants

2 Cardinals

1 Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Royals, Cubs, Astros, Nationals, Dodgers

 

I like....Let's go for 5

[moonslav59]

World Series Winners over the Past 20 years....

4 Red Sox

3 Giants

2 Cardinals

1 Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, Yankees, Royals, Cubs, Astros, Nationals, Dodgers

 

I like....Let's go for 5

 

1 more and we have as much as the next two combined. That's impressive.

[moonslav59]

Looking at every Sox starter and using the following criteria for saying the start was decent or better, here are the results:

 

4+ IP 0-1 ER

5+ IP 0-2 ER

6+ IP 0-3 ER

8+ IP 0-4 ER

 

GS'd meeting this criteria:

11 out of 18 Perez (not counting 1 GS with 3.2 IP 0 ER)

11 out of 18 Eovaldi (no close calls)

8 out of 18 Pivetta (no close calls)

8 out of 18 ERod (1 GS 5.1 IP 3 ER)

8 out of 18 Richards (close: 7.0 IP 4 ER, 5.2 IP 3 ER)

1 out of 2 Houck (no close)

 

Team record in GS'd

12-6 Pivetta

12-6 ERod

11-7 Perez

11-7 Eovaldi

10-8 Richards

0-2 Houck

[sk7326]

Looking at every Sox starter and using the following criteria for saying the start was decent or better, here are the results:

 

4+ IP 0-1 ER

5+ IP 0-2 ER

6+ IP 0-3 ER

8+ IP 0-4 ER

 

GS'd meeting this criteria:

11 out of 18 Perez (not counting 1 GS with 3.2 IP 0 ER)

11 out of 18 Eovaldi (no close calls)

8 out of 18 Pivetta (no close calls)

8 out of 18 ERod (1 GS 5.1 IP 3 ER)

8 out of 18 Richards (close: 7.0 IP 4 ER, 5.2 IP 3 ER)

1 out of 2 Houck (no close)

 

Team record in GS'd

12-6 Pivetta

12-6 ERod

11-7 Perez

11-7 Eovaldi

10-8 Richards

0-2 Houck

 

Yeah the Red Sox have gotten better starting than anybody had any right to expect - and that features both Rodriguez and Eovaldi pitching much better than their results (Rodriguez strikingly so).

[Hugh2]

I like this Bloom guy......Christmas in July.

 

The Red Sox have completed their Jan. 18 trade that sent infielder C.J. Chatham to the Philadelphia Phillies.

 

Boston acquired 21-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Victor Santos from Philadelphia on Saturday.

 

Santos, who just turned 21 on July 12, has a 3.05 ERA (20 ⅔ innings, seven earned runs), 1.02 WHIP and .227 batting average against in four starts for Double-A Reading this year.

 

The 6-foot-1, 191 pounder from the Dominican Republic began the season at High-A Jersey Shore where he posted a 1.33 ERA (20 ⅓ innings, three earned runs), 1.08 WHIP and .221 batting average against in nine outings (one start).

 

 

He has impressive control. He has averaged 8.2 strikeouts and 1.3 walks per nine innings in 254 ⅔ innings in the minors.

 

Good return, but I believe this guy is 40 man eligible. Which is fine, but some people are getting the boot

[moonslav59]

Yeah the Red Sox have gotten better starting than anybody had any right to expect - and that features both Rodriguez and Eovaldi pitching much better than their results (Rodriguez strikingly so).

 

The team going 12-6 in ERod starts and only 11-7 in Perez starts shows ERod has gotten lucky.

[Maxbialystock]

Peavy was not good in the postseason - but he did help them get through the slog of the regular season. Really what the team needs to do now is manage the miles on the bullpen which has been worked very hard. And of course you'd like some depth and insurance in case Whitlock turns into a pumpkin.

 

The team has internal possibilities. But increasing the floor is not a bad idea - assuming the price is okay.

 

Well, see, when you mention a trade or other acquisition, I'm at a loss because I don't know enough. Thus my preference for staying with the guys I know.

[moonslav59]

Can Bloom and his staff, especially the minor league pitching development people, get some credit for Houck's immergence from rather low expectations in 2018 and 2019?

 

2018 (A+) 4.24 ERA/1.429 WHIP

2019 (AA & AAA) 4.01 ERA/1.402 WHIP

 

Did anybody have any idea he was going to become what he has become back then?

 

He even had a 5.14 ERA/1.238 WHIP in 6 starts in AAA in 2020 before his call up and excellent 3 starts.

 

[moonslav59]

From Houck ? Yes I expected big things from him. I like what Chaim is doing here as well but lots of good stuff was also done before his arrival.

 

Based on this?

 

2018 (A+) 4.24 ERA/1.429 WHIP

2019 (AA & AAA) 4.01 ERA/1.402 WHIP

 

or based on what?

[Nick]

Based on this?

 

2018 (A+) 4.24 ERA/1.429 WHIP

2019 (AA & AAA) 4.01 ERA/1.402 WHIP

 

or based on what?

 

Moon, he was a 1st round pick in 2017. It's going to be hard to split hairs on all of our guys as to who gets credit.

 

I'm no sure how much change DD implemented when it came to analytics and such.

 

Let's face it, he was a big picture guy. Big trades, big FA signings.

 

Bloom came up in organization where little things mattered.

 

Best thing about Bloom is he can now develop talent and we have the money to keep that talent.

I'm NOT arguing with you.

[Nick]

SoxProspects write up on Houck.....pretty right on, don't you think?

 

Summation: Potential late-inning reliever, with a chance to develop into a back-end starter if his splitter develops to complement his slider and he refines his fastball command. Could also succeed in a multi-inning relief role. Will likely struggle to turn over a lineup of major league-quality hitters with his current pitch mix and mechanics. Arm slot and fastball-slider combination make him extremely difficult on right-handers, but his low arm slot and lack of a third pitch give him trouble against lefties. Splitter is a new addition to his arsenal, but it has shown potential against left-handed hitters, which will be vital to chances stick in the starting rotation. Has the size and demeanor you look for in a pitcher; able to bear down when necessary.

[Nick]

Danny Santana, 1B: 0-3, 1 BB, 1 R, 1 K

 

Good to see that Santana is approaching his old self in his latest rehab stint.

[Hugh2]

It was nice to see Rodriguez get the win - he has been arguably THE unluckiest pitcher in the league this season - where the gap between his ERA and his underlying fundamentals is the widest.

 

The shopping list is very clear this time around. If they can get another innings eating starter ... with or without Sale's return being included, and then if they can find one more bat to balance out the bottom of the order. This definitely has the feel of a 2013 team, where some versatile unsexy pieces along with a couple of guys bouncing back from surprisingly terrible seasons has given us a contender again.

 

I was thinking the same thing about EROD, and the stats, especially lately prove that. The other day he finally got the box score to reflect that.

 

With EROD pitching as well as he has and Sale coming back we might have a formidable 1-2 punch in a 7 game series.

[moonslav59]

Moon, he was a 1st round pick in 2017. It's going to be hard to split hairs on all of our guys as to who gets credit.

 

I'm no sure how much change DD implemented when it came to analytics and such.

 

Let's face it, he was a big picture guy. Big trades, big FA signings.

 

Bloom came up in organization where little things mattered.

 

Best thing about Bloom is he can now develop talent and we have the money to keep that talent.

I'm NOT arguing with you.

 

I'm not saying he was unpromising. He was the 7th ranked prospect at the end of 2019 and got to around #4 before that, but nobody was really gah-gah over him until those 3 starts in 2020.

[Hugh2]

It’s not like Bloom is the AAA pitching coach.

 

One reason Houck looks so good is because he’s dropped the change up, splitter, and now he’s solely a two pitch guy. He throws those two pitches REALLY well in a bullpen role, but it almost guarantees he’ll never be a starter.

 

He had a plus fastball slider before bloom came along.

[Nick]

MLB.com article for December 2019, a poster over at SoxProspects posted this....

 

Giants: Christian Arroyo, INF -- A first-round pick in 2013, Arroyo enjoyed a steady a climb through San Francisco’s system, hitting well at every stop en route to his big league debut in ’17. Since then, however, Arroyo has twice been included in trades, as he was shipped to the Rays in the December 2017 for Evan Longoria, then flipped to the Guardians in a smaller deal before the 2019 Trade Deadline. Altogether, the 24-year-old has compiled a .215/.280/.342 batting line with six homers in the Majors (70 games).

Moon, article was about Biggest MLB prospect busts....Owens was Sox's. Wasn't he your favorite at one time?

 

There's still hope for Cordero.

Edited July 17, 2021 by Nick

[sk7326]

The team going 12-6 in ERod starts and only 11-7 in Perez starts shows ERod has gotten lucky.

 

He is lucky his record is not worse. He has been very unlucky in his actual pitching. Normally, walking fewer guys, striking out more of the without a real drop in exit velocity does not lead to an 2 run jump in ERA.

[Nick]

Duran

 

Obviously you can't judge a guy after one game.

 

But him drawing walk against Cole was pretty impressive to me.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com article for December 2019, a poster over at SoxProspects posted this....

 

Giants: Christian Arroyo, INF -- A first-round pick in 2013, Arroyo enjoyed a steady a climb through San Francisco’s system, hitting well at every stop en route to his big league debut in ’17. Since then, however, Arroyo has twice been included in trades, as he was shipped to the Rays in the December 2017 for Evan Longoria, then flipped to the Guardians in a smaller deal before the 2019 Trade Deadline. Altogether, the 24-year-old has compiled a .215/.280/.342 batting line with six homers in the Majors (70 games).

Moon, article was about Biggest MLB prospect busts....Owens was Sox's. Wasn't he your favorite at one time?

 

There's still hope for Cordero.

 

Yes, I was on the Owens bandwagon.

 

Ughhhh!

[oldtimer]

JD Martinez seemed to be off his game. I thought the same last night and then he hit a HR. It seemed to be more than just the pitching as some other right handers at least made contact. Take the good pitches and then weak check swings called strikes against balls off the plate. Maybe the AS break has thrown him off.

[Behindenemylines]

The next two weeks will be telling. Tough schedule, trade deadline, and how much of an impact that Sale can be. Have been a little concern about the back half of the starting rotation, and a healthy and productive Sale would make me feel a lot better. I think by August 1 you will have a better idea on the Sox and their playoff push.

[sk7326]

Yes, I was on the Owens bandwagon.

 

Ughhhh!

 

There is no substitute for throwing strikes, alas.

[Nick]

The next two weeks will be telling. Tough schedule, trade deadline, and how much of an impact that Sale can be. Have been a little concern about the back half of the starting rotation, and a healthy and productive Sale would make me feel a lot better. I think by August 1 you will have a better idea on the Sox and their playoff push.

 

We have 5 games against depleted Yankee lineup over the next 8 days. We really need to go 4-1.

[Behindenemylines]

We have 5 games against depleted Yankee lineup over the next 8 days. We really need to go 4-1.

 

I am little concern with the Toronto series as they get the bottom of the rotation, but yes they need to go to town on the depleted Yanks. I believe without rain last night the Sox would have found a way to win.

[Nick]

This kid needs to be tracked...

 

Bello had a great 4 innings. Got into trouble in the 5th and wound up with a deceptively lousy line.

 

He did strike out two for a total of nine in 4.2 innings but left with two outs, two on and the reliever gave up a double to bring in the two runners. His line is not pretty but the back story is more encouraging. Nine out of eleven outs on Ks is OK with me.

 

High A to Portland already in 2021.

 

With Tanner 'graduating', Seabold and Bello maybe our next rotation pieces for 2023. Matta should be 100% by then.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

OPS Ranking by Positions For Red Sox in AL

 

1 3B, SS

3 DH

6 RF

8 CF, 2B

10 C

11 LF

12 1B

 

OPS rankings for AL East by positions

 

Jays 1-1-2-3-6-9-11-11-11

Sox. 1-1-3-6-8-8-10-11-12

Rays 3-4-7-7-9-10-11-11-11

Yanks 2-3-5-5-10-12-12-14-15

[oldtimer]

The home plate umpire last night had a particularly wide strike zone after a very narrow one the night before. I can understand strikes on balls which nearly touch the strike zone being called strikes but those a couple of inches off have to frustrate hitters. It's particularly tough when a hitter gets rung up on a clear ball in a critical situation. I am still a proponent of technology assisted calling of balls and strikes. I also thought the game should have been delayed last night after the 5th inning as conditions were getting dangerous. I know its an umpire's call, but they appear to have gotten this one wrong.