A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

You should open a thread about that ot.

[Nick]

Here we are at the 2nd half of the season and I have a comment/thought. There has been a great deal or work by Moon and others to provide stats to support lineups, trade values and targets for acquisitions. The stats are essential in those discussions but I am from the old school. I like to watch the game closely for how individual players approach hitting, fielding and base running. I also like to see how pitchers attempt to get batters out. I'm interested in managers strategies and player adjustment but seldom are those things discussed? I know there is the game day thread which but I don't find a lot in that either. I know there are many knowledgeable fans on the site so am surprised that the details of the game are so rarely discussed.

 

The extra inning game that we lost when Barnes blew it, Workman was fortunate to pitch two innings and we had 2 run lead. Even the Chinese knew that we couldn't hold the lead with the guy we brought in.

 

That games at that point should have been played to win. I repeat. THAT GAME AT THAT POINT SHOULD HAVE BEEN PLAYED TO WIN.

 

All Cora had to do was to turn to one of his upcoming starter and say, "Can you go get the win for us?" So what if said starter had to miss a turn.

 

I would bet on Chris Sale holding a two run lead for one inning opposed to Chris Sale starting a game and winning.

 

If we miss the playoffs by one game, I will always remember how Cora managed it. You can't go by the books. What's the big f***ing deal about pitching one inning? You can't tell me all of the three upcoming starters would have refused.

 

How's that Oldtimer?

Edited July 16, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Duran is 6' 3" tall. He came up as second baseman. Obviously he's fielded groundballs. Why not teach him to play 1B?

 

Unless of course he can't learn to take direct route to the first base bag.

 

I'm only half kidding.

[moonslav59]

I think the biggest question right now is how do Duran and Kike play 8-9 games out of 10.

 

I guess the idea that Duran may not play that much could be asked, but I think they called him up to play at least 7 of 10 games.

 

The only way I see it working is for Kike or Arroyo to play 1B at least 4-5 games out of 10.

 

Let's assume Kike does, since he has 89 innings at 1B over his career. Kike has none.

 

We could see something like this:

 

Games played out of 10

 

9 Renfroe (Kike plays LF or CF, Verdugo RF)

9 Verdugo (Kike plays LF or CF- Duran LF or CF)

8-9 Kike (4-5 at 1B, 1-2 at 2B and 2-3 in the OF)

8-9 Arroyo (Kike plays 2B)

5-6 Dalbec (Kike plays 1B)

 

Basically, Kike plays the rover.

 

Dalbec loses the most playing time. Everyone else gets 1-2 days off every 10 games, which isn't far from the norm, right now.

[moonslav59]

Has any moves been announced to counter the Duran addition to the 40 man and 26 man roster and Houck to the 26 man roster?

 

I have heard Marwin to the IL (for what?), and I'm guessing Brice gets DFA'd again.

 

With Santana on the IL, he may be next, or do we DFA him and try to keep Brice on the 40? (Does he have to clear waivers, again?)

[moonslav59]

Speaking of the IL.

 

Sale is on the 60 and begins his rehab, very soon.

 

Brasier is on the 60, and I'm not sure when he comes back. (It may notmatter.)

 

Bazardo is on the 60, and may not come back, this year.

 

Andriese is on the 10 day IL.

 

Santana is on the 10 day IL.

 

Marwin may be going on the 10 day IL.

 

Chavis, Workman, Rios and Brice are on the bubble.

[moonslav59]

With everyone healthy, would this be the 26 man roster?

 

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Perez, Richards (Pen?)

Barnes, Ottavino, Taylor, Whitlock, DHern, Houck, Sawamura

Vazquez, Plawecki

Dalbec

Arroyo, Marwin

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo

Kike, Duran

Renfroe

JD

 

#26: Cordero, Chavis, Brasier, Bazardo, Andriese, Workman, Rios

[Nick]

Speaking of the IL.

 

Sale is on the 60 and begins his rehab, very soon.

 

Brasier is on the 60, and I'm not sure when he comes back. (It may notmatter.)

 

Bazardo is on the 60, and may not come back, this year.

 

Andriese is on the 10 day IL.

 

Santana is on the 10 day IL.

 

Marwin may be going on the 10 day IL.

 

Chavis, Workman, Rios and Brice are on the bubble.

 

Sale actually pitched 3 innings this morning against lowly minor league team. His next stop is Portland.

[Nick]

With everyone healthy, would this be the 26 man roster?

 

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Perez, Richards (Pen?)

Barnes, Ottavino, Taylor, Whitlock, DHern, Houck, Sawamura

Vazquez, Plawecki

Dalbec

Arroyo, Marwin

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo

Kike, Duran

Renfroe

JD

 

#26: Cordero, Chavis, Brasier, Bazardo, Andriese, Workman, Rios

 

Not really sure why Arroyo is working out at 1B unless the team is planning to demote Dalbec.

[Nick]

Has any moves been announced to counter the Duran addition to the 40 man and 26 man roster and Houck to the 26 man roster?

 

I have heard Marwin to the IL (for what?), and I'm guessing Brice gets DFA'd again.

 

With Santana on the IL, he may be next, or do we DFA him and try to keep Brice on the 40? (Does he have to clear waivers, again?)

 

I have not seen any official moves.....

[Nick]

I think the biggest question right now is how do Duran and Kike play 8-9 games out of 10.

 

I guess the idea that Duran may not play that much could be asked, but I think they called him up to play at least 7 of 10 games.

 

The only way I see it working is for Kike or Arroyo to play 1B at least 4-5 games out of 10.

 

Let's assume Kike does, since he has 89 innings at 1B over his career. Kike has none.

 

We could see something like this:

 

Games played out of 10

 

9 Renfroe (Kike plays LF or CF, Verdugo RF)

9 Verdugo (Kike plays LF or CF- Duran LF or CF)

8-9 Kike (4-5 at 1B, 1-2 at 2B and 2-3 in the OF)

8-9 Arroyo (Kike plays 2B)

5-6 Dalbec (Kike plays 1B)

 

Basically, Kike plays the rover.

 

Dalbec loses the most playing time. Everyone else gets 1-2 days off every 10 games, which isn't far from the norm, right now.

 

I think an article in MassLive said Duran will bat vs righties and some vs lefties, according to Cora. He will also play all three OF positions.

[moonslav59]

Not really sure why Arroyo is working out at 1B unless the team is planning to demote Dalbec.

 

Dalbec can be platooned or see him play about 50%, with Kike or apparently Arroyo playing 1B when he sits, so Duran can play near FT without taking Kike out of the line-up.

[notin]

Duran is 6' 3" tall. He came up as second baseman. Obviously he's fielded groundballs. Why not teach him to play 1B?

 

Unless of course he can't learn to take direct route to the first base bag.

 

I'm only half kidding.

 

Well, finish kidding, damnit!!

[Sox75]

Duran and Downs fill specific holes in this lineup. When they are ready, the team will be better off for it.

 

You can say you don’t think much of them, but it just reminds me that Salty WAS better than Jesus Montero no matter how much you argued otherwise.

 

Bingo!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

How about trading for Jonathan Schoop and making him the starting 1b? In this scenario, Dalbec either gets traded in a separate deal (if the Tigers don't want him) or sent to AAA.

 

Schoop is a rental. I'm assuming the Tigers are not expecting a top prospect for him.

 

How much confidence would we have in a 1b platoon combination of Cordero and Dalbec? If the Red Sox went ahead with that plan, there is no guarantee that it will be productive and it will take up two spots on the active roster.

 

Trade deadline plan:

(1) Trade for Schoop

(2) Trade for Berrios

Edited July 16, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

The extra inning game that we lost when Barnes blew it, Workman was fortunate to pitch two innings and we had 2 run lead. Even the Chinese knew that we couldn't hold the lead with the guy we brought in.

 

That games at that point should have been played to win. I repeat. THAT GAME AT THAT POINT SHOULD HAVE BEEN PLAYED TO WIN.

 

All Cora had to do was to turn to one of his upcoming starter and say, "Can you go get the win for us?" So what if said starter had to miss a turn.

 

I would bet on Chris Sale holding a two run lead for one inning opposed to Chris Sale starting a game and winning.

 

If we miss the playoffs by one game, I will always remember how Cora managed it. You can't go by the books. What's the big f***ing deal about pitching one inning? You can't tell me all of the three upcoming starters would have refused.

 

How's that Oldtimer?

 

I don't think that's what he had in mind. Nice rant, though.

[notin]

How about trading for Jonathan Schoop and making him the starting 1b? In this scenario, Dalbec either gets traded in a separate deal (if the Tigers don't want him) or sent to AAA.

 

Schoop is a rental. I'm assuming the Tigers are not expecting a top prospect for him.

 

How much confidence would we have in a 1b platoon combination of Cordero and Dalbec? If the Red Sox went ahead with that plan, there is no guarantee that it will be productive and it will take up two spots on the active roster.

 

Trade deadline plan:

(1) Trade for Schoop

(2) Trade for Berrios

 

Schoop is a reasonable target. But what would the Sox give up for Berrios?

[Bellhorn04]

Schoop is a reasonable target. But what would the Sox give up for Berrios?

 

I think we should forget about Berrios. Bloom doesn't make moves like that.

[notin]

I think we should forget about Berrios. Bloom doesn't make moves like that.

 

Well, this is his first pennant race with a team that has an actual budget. But I don't think he has the prospects to be the top bidder for Berrios...

[mvp 78]

I think we should forget about Berrios. Bloom doesn't make moves like that.

 

We don't really know that.

[mvp 78]

Well, this is his first pennant race with a team that has an actual budget. But I don't think he has the prospects to be the top bidder for Berrios...

 

He does, but I don't think he wants to give them up.

[Hugh2]

I'm not opposed to selling prospects for rentals, so I hope no one takes this post out of context, but I am cautious.

 

A farm system exists to supplement the big club, and that means trading away future value for present value.

 

However, there always seems to be some people that are 100% about instant gratification and want to sell off the farm seemingly at any time. That's all fine and Dandy, but keep in mind NOT selling the farm at times has given us Bogaerts, Devers, Vasquez, and Barnes and in years past the likes of Betts, Pedroia, Benintendi, Lester, Papelbon etc.

 

And yes, sometimes you trade away those prospects for the likes of Sale, Lowe, Varitek, etc. But a good GM doesn't just buy for the sake of buying sometimes you the best trades are the ones you do not make.

[Bellhorn04]

We don't really know that.

 

Are we talking about a bet here???!!!

[mvp 78]

Are we talking about a bet here???!!!

 

No, I'm just saying we don't really know how whether or not he makes these types of moves. He hasn't been in this position before. He's on a competing team with the luxury of a high payroll. We don't know if he believes he can use some of his farm to push a playoff contender forward. I don't think he will this year, but we can't say for sure.

[moonslav59]

We don’t really know what Bloom might or might not do.

 

I think he might make a big trade but not for a rental or maybe not even a guy like Berríos, who has one more year of control, unless extending him is part of the plan,

 

Timing is also a key element in making a big trade. Some might think, “hey, we’re in a race for a ring, what better time is there but now?” I’m not sure Bloom is thinking now it the right time.

[Hugh2]

I hope bloom spins the tires on some upgrades, and I think he will but I'm not sure this is the year you go after the premium player at the deadline and pay a premium price. I don't think the guys are that good.

 

I'd be interested in bullpen depth, I think the back of your pen is fine. Playoff time you have Barnes, Ottavino, Whitlock. I think those guys will be better if they start getting more rest. They're being overworked, especially Barnes. You don't need an elite closer you just need someone to take pressure off those guys and we probably have in-house options: Houck, Ort, Valdez, and maybe even Seabold.

 

What I want to see, is what they can do to improve 1B. I like Dalbec, and I don't want to give up on him yet, but if the team wants to make a serious run in the playoffs they can't have that black hole in their lineup. I'd settle for a platoon if it can be a good fit and the price is right.

[moonslav59]

What I want to see, is what they can do to improve 1B. I like Dalbec, and I don't want to give up on him yet, but if the team wants to make a serious run in the playoffs they can't have that black hole in their lineup. I'd settle for a platoon if it can be a good fit and the price is right.

 

The thing is, every AL playoff bound team has a black hole. Some have 2-4.

 

Also, with Duran up, we need to find ways for Kike and Arroyo to play nearly everyday.

 

Kike can play 1B. I think we found our 1B platoon or coverage guy in Kike.

 

Out of their top 9 hitters by PAs, the Rays have 4 guys at under .707 (2 under .641). Their next 3 guys are under .700, so 7 of their top 12 guys are under .707. Can they keep winning with just one guy under .700?

 

The CWS have 2 of their top 9 under .700. Can they win?

 

The A's have two, including one at .599. 6 of their top 13 hitters are below .700. They have one hitter over .826.

 

The Astros have 2, including one at .548! Having 7 of their top 10 over .800 kinda makes up for that.

 

Our top 3 guys by PAs are over .925, our next 3 are over .745. The next 3 are under .700 but Arroyo, our 10th man in PAs is now playing more than Marwin and Dalbec.

7. .659 Vaz

8. .673 Dalbec

9. .583 Marwin

10. .762 Arroyo

 

We have 3 "black hole," but Dalbec seems to be squeezed out of playing time by the addition of Duran, and Marwin should not remain 9th in PAs, unless Arroyo gets hurt, again.

 

Maybe Duran ends up in the top 9 or 10 in PAs, but that remains to be seen, and who knows what he will hit?

Edited July 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[Hugh2]

The thing is, every AL playoff bound team has a black hole. Some have 2-4.

 

Also, with Duran up, we need to find ways for Kike and Arroyo to play nearly everyday.

 

Kike can play 1B. I think we found our 1B platoon or coverage guy in Kike.

 

I’m not worried about finding Arroyo at bats, he’s never really been an everyday player but he’s earned a shot at 2b on this team. Kike will spell him. I’m not worried about Kike getting at bats. Cora will get him at bats. He will get about as much playing time as a starter as a super utility player on this team.

 

I’d be more than happy picking up a bat who could platoon with Dalbec and DFA Marwin

[Hugh2]

Also, Dalbec has not been very good defensively

[notin]

I’m not worried about finding Arroyo at bats, he’s never really been an everyday player but he’s earned a shot at 2b on this team. Kike will spell him. I’m not worried about Kike getting at bats. Cora will get him at bats. He will get about as much playing time as a starter as a super utility player on this team.

 

I’d be more than happy picking up a bat who could platoon with Dalbec and DFA Marwin

 

The thing is, the guy most likely to platoon with Dalbec is Marwin…