A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I wouldn't extend JD Martinez. If he opts out, the Red Sox will have plenty of options to replace him with a younger player: Semien (not a DH, but you could rotate infielders to give everyone rest), Bryant, Schwarber. If those players don't interest you, the Red Sox could always bring back Pablo Sandoval.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't extend JD Martinez. If he opts out, the Red Sox will have plenty of options to replace him with a younger player: Semien (not a DH, but you could rotate infielders to give everyone rest), Bryant, Schwarber. If those players don't interest you, the Red Sox could always bring back Pablo Sandoval.

 

JD is one of the best hitters in baseball. His bat has been crucial to our success this year and would not be easily replaced.

[mvp 78]

I doubt we trade Dalbec for a rental. I don't think Casas is 2022 ready.

 

I was hopeful, but it's not looking likely.

[iortiz]

Bloom = Genius

 

The Bloom/Cora duo is approaching the level of Theo/Tito, which for me is saying a lot. Not there yet, but approaching.

 

Bloom and Cora are way better than Theo and Tito. Not even close. I even think DD was even better than Theo.

 

Right now Bloom has this team at the top with literally tons of replacement players. Theo always had money and his final years in Boston were unsustainable.

 

OTOH While Tito was a great manager, Cora is way better all around —managing, coaching, on-game decision calling, approach with players, mentoring, advanced stat analysis, etc.

 

Bloom and Cora with payroll flexibility will be the best duo in baseball. You'll see.

[iortiz]

A ring would help, but that might not be until 2022 to 2024.

 

They are in a position to win it all this year with some moves here and there.

[moonslav59]

JD is one of the best hitters in baseball. His bat has been crucial to our success this year and would not be easily replaced.

 

This is so very true, and his influence on younger players and other vets is immeasurable.

 

That being said, he's getting older. Replacing this JD with the 34-36 year old JD might not get the job done, either.

[moonslav59]

Bloom and Cora are way better than Theo and Tito. Not even close. I even think DD was even better than Theo.

 

Right now Bloom has this team at the top with literally tons of replacement players. Theo always had money and his final years in Boston were unsustainable.

 

OTOH While Tito was a great manager, Cora is way better all around —managing, coaching, on-game decision calling, approach with players, mentoring, advanced stat analysis, etc.

 

Bloom and Cora with payroll flexibility will be the best duo in baseball. You'll see.

 

You undervalue Theo and Tito.

 

Theo built winner while making and then keeping the farm very strong, at times, and stronger than DD at its worst.

 

Yes, he inherited a nice foundation, like DD did, but he built two winners that were almost all different players. He then, left Ben with a solid foundation for the 2013 win.

 

DD left a pretty weak farm, some bad contracts and aging players at key positions.

 

I once called Cora our "best manger ever" and caught a lot of flack over it. It was not meant as a Tito bashing. I loved Tito.

 

I do think Cora will someday be called the best ever by many, but he has more work to do. This season is a big feather in his cap. The expectations were low, and we have the best record in the AL. Tito often had underperforming teams vs expectation. Now, maybe our expectations were wrong, but Cora is on the path to being the greatest.

[moonslav59]

They are in a position to win it all this year with some moves here and there.

 

I hope we make 2-3 deals that boost our chances without giving up any very promising players or prospects.

 

Something like what we did in 2018 would be what I expect. Whether the deals work out as well as those did is another matter.

[Bellhorn04]

This is so very true, and his influence on younger players and other vets is immeasurable.

 

That being said, he's getting older. Replacing this JD with the 34-36 year old JD might not get the job done, either.

 

Agreed. Tacking on one more year to 2022 might be as far as Bloom would want to go. Maybe 2 more years, at a reduced rate.

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom and Cora are way better than Theo and Tito. Not even close. I even think DD was even better than Theo.

 

Seriously? Theo has 3 rings and a ton of playoff appearances. Pretty hard to top his record.

[oldtimer]

I read somewhere that if Duran went to the Olympics, he would not be available until mid August, August 17 , if I'm not mistaken. While a callup no longer seems as imminent as it once did, that's a long time not to have a player available. I don't think they are planning to trade him. They just want him to be available, if needed.

 

That said, Bloom's moves are geared towards the long term. If he can pull off a trade that will help us short and long term, he would trade Duran. I can't see him trading Duran for a piece that will only help us this year.

 

I believe the Olympic baseball will be over on Aug 7th.

[oldtimer]

I like our chances at reaching the WS as much as any other AL team.

 

Once we get to the WS, our record is pretty damn good, but of course there's the whole "return to the mean" thingy that keeps getting in the way.

 

Our weakest area of late has been starting pitching. It's possible Sale could help us there but it difficult to see us adding a SP who could give us meaningful help without exceeding the CBT. Would an addition be worth losing young prospect and/or exceeding the CBT ceiling. We will know the Sox direction in about two weeks.

[notin]

Seriously? Theo has 3 rings and a ton of playoff appearances. Pretty hard to top his record.

 

I take it you mean in his career and not just Boston..

[moonslav59]

Although looking at the 2022 budget does not belong on this thread, the ASB always seems to lead to talk of issues like this, since there is not much else to talk about.

 

Lux Tax budget for 2022:

 

$Millions

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (may opt out)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price (last year payment to LAD)

8.50 Richards (team option) May not keep

9.38 Barnes

7.00 E Hernandez

6.75 Vazquez (team option)

5.50 Perez (team option)

3.25 Andriese (team option) Probably won't keep

1.50 Sawamura

 

ARBS

~5.5 Devers (2 of 3)

~4.0 Renfroe (3 of 4)

~3.0 Verdugo (1 of 3)

~2.5 Pivetta (1 of 3)

~2.1 Arroyo (1 of 3)

~1.7 Plawecki (4 of 4) May let go

~1.5 Taylor (1 of 4)

~1.2 Brasier (2 of 3)

~1.0 Cordero (2 of 3)

 

~2.3 Other 40 man roster players

~16.0 Player Benefits

 

$172M Estimate (with JD, Perez, Vaz, but no Richards, Andriese and Plawecki)

 

That leaves about $38M to reach the tax line and $58M to stay under the second tax line.

 

No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Marwin, Andriese, Santana, Plawecki, Workman, Rios and Brice.

 

2022 Projected 26 Man Roster (40 man Roster in Red)

 

Sale

Eovaldi

__FA____

Pivetta

Whitlock

Perez

Seabold

Mata

Bello

Winckoski

Groome

Ward

 

Barnes

__FA____

Sawamura

Taylor

__FA_______

D Hernandez

Houck

Valdez

Bazardo

Ort

 

Vazquez

Wong

 

Dalbec

__FA_____ (utility)

 

Arroyo

Downs

 

Bogaerts

 

Devers

H Potts

Verdugo

Cordero

 

E Hernandez

Duran

Rosario

Jimenez

 

Renfroe

 

JD Martinez

 

Bubble 40 man (must replace someone above)

F German Rule 5

AScherff Rule 5

AJ Politi Rule 5

K Cottam Rule 5

K Crawford Rule 5

T Reed Rule 5

D Feltman Rule 5

T Dearden Rule 5

J Schreiber Rule 5

M Wilson

J Arauz

M Chavis

 

 

Edited July 13, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Our weakest area of late has been starting pitching. It's possible Sale could help us there but it difficult to see us adding a SP who could give us meaningful help without exceeding the CBT. Would an addition be worth losing young prospect and/or exceeding the CBT ceiling. We will know the Sox direction in about two weeks.

 

There are a lot of pitchers out there that would not put us over the tax line. Only 1/3 of their salary counts on the tax line.

 

To get a real good one, we may need to give up more than Bloom is willing to give.

 

Guys like Danny Duffy or Jon Gray might be SP'ers that could help, but with the risk they may not.

[moonslav59]

Seriously? Theo has 3 rings and a ton of playoff appearances. Pretty hard to top his record.

 

Maybe he meant with the Sox, so it's 2 for Theo and letting the farm value slip from its peak between 2003 to 2006.

[mvp 78]

Although looking at the 2022 budget does not belong on this thread, the ASB always seems to lead to talk of issues like this, since there is not much else to talk about.

 

Lux Tax budget for 2022:

 

$Millions

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (may opt out)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price (last year payment to LAD)

8.50 Richards (team option) May not keep

9.38 Barnes

7.00 E Hernandez

6.75 Vazquez (team option)

5.50 Perez (team option)

3.25 Andriese (team option) Probably won't keep

1.50 Sawamura

 

ARBS

~5.5 Devers (2 of 3)

~4.0 Renfroe (3 of 4)

~3.0 Verdugo (1 of 3)

~2.5 Pivetta (1 of 3)

~2.1 Arroyo (1 of 3)

~1.7 Plawecki (4 of 4) May let go

~1.5 Taylor (1 of 4)

~1.2 Brasier (2 of 3)

~1.0 Cordero (2 of 3)

 

~2.3 Other 40 man roster players

~16.0 Player Benefits

 

$172M Estimate (with JD, Perez, Vaz, but no Richards, Andriese and Plawecki)

 

That leaves about $38M to reach the tax line and $58M to stay under the second tax line.

 

No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Marwin, Andriese, Santana, Plawecki, Workman, Rios and Brice.

 

2022 Projected 26 Man Roster (40 man Roster in Red)

 

Sale

Eovaldi

__FA____

Pivetta

Whitlock

Perez

Seabold

Mata

Bello

Winckoski

Groome

Ward

 

Barnes

__FA____

Sawamura

Taylor

__FA_______

D Hernandez

Houck

Valdez

Bazardo

Ort

 

Vazquez

Wong

 

Dalbec

__FA_____ (utility)

 

Arroyo

Downs

 

Bogaerts

 

Devers

H Potts

Verdugo

Cordero

 

E Hernandez

Duran

Rosario

Jimenez

 

Renfroe

 

JD Martinez

 

Bubble 40 man (must replace someone above)

F German Rule 5

AScherff Rule 5

AJ Politi Rule 5

K Cottam Rule 5

K Crawford Rule 5

T Reed Rule 5

D Feltman Rule 5

T Dearden Rule 5

J Schreiber Rule 5

M Wilson

J Arauz

M Chavis

 

 

 

This would be a good idea for its own thread.

[mvp 78]

There are a lot of pitchers out there that would not put us over the tax line. Only 1/3 of their salary counts on the tax line.

 

To get a real good one, we may need to give up more than Bloom is willing to give.

 

Guys like Danny Duffy or Jon Gray might be SP'ers that could help, but with the risk they may not.

 

I believe Duffy would put us over.

[mvp 78]

I believe Duffy would put us over.

 

$13M lux tax

[Nick]

Although looking at the 2022 budget does not belong on this thread, the ASB always seems to lead to talk of issues like this, since there is not much else to talk about.

 

Lux Tax budget for 2022:

 

$Millions

25.6 Sale

22.0 JD (may opt out)

20.0 Bogey

17.0 Eovaldi

16.0 Price (last year payment to LAD)

8.50 Richards (team option) May not keep

9.38 Barnes

7.00 E Hernandez

6.75 Vazquez (team option)

5.50 Perez (team option)

3.25 Andriese (team option) Probably won't keep

1.50 Sawamura

 

ARBS

~5.5 Devers (2 of 3)

~4.0 Renfroe (3 of 4)

~3.0 Verdugo (1 of 3)

~2.5 Pivetta (1 of 3)

~2.1 Arroyo (1 of 3)

~1.7 Plawecki (4 of 4) May let go

~1.5 Taylor (1 of 4)

~1.2 Brasier (2 of 3)

~1.0 Cordero (2 of 3)

 

~2.3 Other 40 man roster players

~16.0 Player Benefits

 

$172M Estimate (with JD, Perez, Vaz, but no Richards, Andriese and Plawecki)

 

That leaves about $38M to reach the tax line and $58M to stay under the second tax line.

 

No ERod, Ottavino, Richards, Marwin, Andriese, Santana, Plawecki, Workman, Rios and Brice.

 

2022 Projected 26 Man Roster (40 man Roster in Red)

 

Sale

Eovaldi

__FA____

Pivetta

Whitlock

Perez

Seabold

Mata

Bello

Winckoski

Groome

Ward

 

Barnes

__FA____

Sawamura

Taylor

__FA_______

D Hernandez

Houck

Valdez

Bazardo

Ort

 

Vazquez

Wong

 

Dalbec

__FA_____ (utility)

 

Arroyo

Downs

 

Bogaerts

 

Devers

H Potts

Verdugo

Cordero

 

E Hernandez

Duran

Rosario

Jimenez

 

Renfroe

 

JD Martinez

 

Bubble 40 man (must replace someone above)

F German Rule 5

AScherff Rule 5

AJ Politi Rule 5

K Cottam Rule 5

K Crawford Rule 5

T Reed Rule 5

D Feltman Rule 5

T Dearden Rule 5

J Schreiber Rule 5

M Wilson

J Arauz

M Chavis

 

 

 

Not to nitpick but Devers will get $8-$10M in 2022.

[moonslav59]

$13M lux tax

 

Pro-rated to 1/3 a season is $4.3M (minus the guy's salary he replaces on the 26 man roster).

 

We have $4.5M space.

[mvp 78]

Pro-rated to 1/3 a season is $4.3M (minus the guy's salary he replaces on the 26 man roster).

 

We have $4.5M space.

 

Seems to cut it a little too tight IMO.

[moonslav59]

Not to nitpick but Devers will get $8-$10M in 2022.

 

I'm no expert on arbs, but first year arbs are notoriously very lowball.

 

Maybe $7-8M?

[moonslav59]

Seems to cut it a little too tight IMO.

 

Agreed, but maybe KC picks up $2M and gives us Carlos Santana, too.

[moonslav59]

Seems to cut it a little too tight IMO.

 

More likely, we find someone making $6-9M and pay the pro-rated $2-3M, leaving enough room for a cheap 1B and maybe even a RP'er.

[vegasbob]

I notice in the draft that the Sox have selected 4 pitchers among their first 11 choices. None of the 4 were pre-ranked prospects ...

Makes a lot of sense to not spend resources on development tasks that you have proven you are not very good at performing.

[Bellhorn04]

I notice in the draft that the Sox have selected 4 pitchers among their first 11 choices. None of the 4 were pre-ranked prospects ...

Makes a lot of sense to not spend resources on development tasks that you have proven you are not very good at performing.

 

Weren't very good at...hopefully Bloom puts that in the past tense.

[moonslav59]

Weren't very good at...hopefully Bloom puts that in the past tense.

 

Exactly. We have new people at the helm and in the system.

 

Let's give them some slack.

 

I hope we keep doing well with non-pitchers.

[vegasbob]

More likely, we find someone making $6-9M and pay the pro-rated $2-3M, leaving enough room for a cheap 1B and maybe even a RP'er.

 

Enjoyed reading your Lux tax budget for 2022, just didn't want to requote it (save electrons) to make one point. The exclusion of Erod from the Sox future plans has to be taken as a failure at a critical position. I'm sure he will go make an FA deal that doesn't fit the Lux Tax for Boston. With FA starting pitching regularly going for $20-$30MM per pitcher on 3-6 year deals they had better learn how to develop young pitchers as the Rays did under Bloom.

JDM poses a special problem with age coming on, and a premium price tag. He has one shot at a new 3 year contract, after 2022, taking him to retirement . Is he so special that Boston could afford that luxury ?

[mvp 78]

More likely, we find someone making $6-9M and pay the pro-rated $2-3M, leaving enough room for a cheap 1B and maybe even a RP'er.

 

Agreed.