A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Of course they can afford the deal. So could the Red Sox. That's not a good reason to outbid yourself.

 

You're always going to be the only bidder when you sign a player to an extension.

 

They thought it was a team-friendly deal, and I tend to think they were right, especially when you see what a lesser player like Lindor got.

 

You're a fiscal conservative, I understand that too.

[moonslav59]

I've mentioned this several times. Cot's does not have a value filled in for Santana. I've e-mailed them but no action so far. It will be a portion of $1.75M, I believe the major league contract kicked in sometime in May.

 

They have him at $8.75M in 2021 and 2022 (lux tax) and $7.0 + $10.5 actual pay.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/119QzUde_UBdUsPmv4u8T5_XSvPNi4EVHBZHwuM5_XPA/edit#gid=1520401900

 

Prorated, the 2021 value would be about $3M for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

You Don't Have to Baby this Guy

 

Cole completed his memorable night by gassing a 99.1 mph fastball past Yordan Alvarez, letting loose a guttural roar. The right-hander’s 12th strikeout came on his 129th pitch, a career high and the most thrown by any pitcher in the Majors this season, surpassing a 126-pitch effort by the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer.

 

Beat Houston 1-0. We don't have this type of pitcher on our staff right now.

 

...and they don't have 2-5 starters like ours or an offense like ours.

[moonslav59]

You're always going to be the only bidder when you sign a player to an extension.

 

They thought it was a team-friendly deal, and I tend to think they were right, especially when you see what a lesser player like Lindor got.

 

You're a fiscal conservative, I understand that too.

 

It's one thing to not want us to have signed Betts. It's another to not see it as a team friendly deal by thinking other teams would have or might have offered more.

[oldtimer]

I look at Bloom's activities on the pitching front as very beneficial to the club and one of the main reasons they are still leading the division at the halfway point.

 

In particular, the additions of Pivetta, Ottavino, Perez, Richards, Sawamura and Whitlock look very smart indeed and were done within a budget limited by existing contracts ad the CBT. Signing Barnes for an extension is one more in a series of smart moves.

 

We have had only one real addition from our prospect list in D.Hern. For some reason, we have suffered injuries and have been unable to develop pitching prospects. Our candidates include Barzardo, Groome, Houck, Mata, Seabold and Ward who are on the 40 man or part of the top 30 prospects. Of those, Houck has the best chance of making a difference at the ML level. I would have expected we would be able to fill at least 3 pitchers from our 40 man and prospects this year but talent and the injury bug holds us back.

 

We do have 3 innings eaters who would be replaced if we had talent available. Andriese, Brice and Workman fall into this category and will not be on the 2022 roster. I have watched Rios and believe he has a chance to stick but has to improve his command to do so.

 

I don't see us making a splash this season as Sale will have to represent our major addition. We may make an acquisition in the RP area or perhaps Brasier and Houck will return to bolster us there. There is always a risk of injury to our front line people with half the season remaining. I hope we stay lucky but expect to need to ake at least some adjustments going forward.

[moonslav59]

Great post, again, oldtimer.

 

I see 3 replaceable pitchers (Andriese, Rios & Workman) and 1 bench player (Santana/Chavis) between the ASB and the trade deadline.

 

I agree, Sale and maybe one or two from Houck/Brasier/Bazardo/Valdez/Ort can fill 2-3 of these 4 slots, but I think we'll trade for one pitcher.

Santana/Chavis. He does not play 1B. I think we may roll the dice with what we have or trade for a LH'd hitting 1Bman.

[Nick]

They have him at $8.75M in 2021 and 2022 (lux tax) and $7.0 + $10.5 actual pay.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/119QzUde_UBdUsPmv4u8T5_XSvPNi4EVHBZHwuM5_XPA/edit#gid=1520401900

 

Prorated, the 2021 value would be about $3M for the Sox.

 

Moon

 

You have Carlos Santana of Kansas City Royals....Danny Santana's full salary is only $1.75M

[jacksonianmarch]

There are a fair amount of corner IFs likely to be moved, so I think the Sox definitely snag one to play 1b. I also wouldn’t be surprised if you grabbed an outfielder to shift Kike to 2b and not rely on Marwin at all

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There are a fair amount of corner IFs likely to be moved, so I think the Sox definitely snag one to play 1b. I also wouldn’t be surprised if you grabbed an outfielder to shift Kike to 2b and not rely on Marwin at all

 

Nope, Kike has improved going back on long fly balls in the gaps. In the infield, Marwin is just better.

[moonslav59]

There are a fair amount of corner IFs likely to be moved, so I think the Sox definitely snag one to play 1b. I also wouldn’t be surprised if you grabbed an outfielder to shift Kike to 2b and not rely on Marwin at all

 

Arroyo is our 2Bman, not Marwin.

[Nick]

With Barnes extension, we'll probably lose two relievers, Ottavino and Whitlock.

 

It would be surprising to see both Houck and Whitlock start next year, although I'm not oppose to it. I'm always about upgrading at every spot.

 

I agree with Oldtimer in that I'm not convinced Rios is a horrible pitcher.

 

So we now have Barnes, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Whitlock, Houck, Brasier, Rios, Valdez (?).....we'll see what our farm teams will do for next year's varsity team.

 

Between Barnes and Ottavino, they made close to $11.25M.

[moonslav59]

We hear a lot of talk about this team is like the 2013 ring team- a team largely viewed as over achieving their career norms.

 

Here's a look at 2021...

 

Hitters (by order of most PAs in 2021)

 

2021 Player Other years

.921 Devers .846 career/.916 in '19

.931 JDM .887 career/1.066 '17, 1.031 '18, .939 '19, .912 '14, .908 '16

.924 Bogey .814 career/ .939 in '19, .883 '18, .867 '20

.782 Verdugo .796 career/ .844 '20, .817 '19

.755 Kike .740 career/ .836 '15, .806 '18, .768 '14

.772 Renfroe .775 career/.805 '18, .778 '19

.654 Vazquez .694 career/ .801 '20, .798 '19, .735 '17

.673 Dalbec .746 career/ .959 in '20

.585 Marwin .720 career/ .907 trashcan year, .727-.759 four seasons

.720 Arroyo .669 career/.736 '20, '735 '18

 

5 of the top 10 players, this year, have a higher career OPS than 2021 OPS.

 

[notin]

There are a fair amount of corner IFs likely to be moved, so I think the Sox definitely snag one to play 1b. I also wouldn’t be surprised if you grabbed an outfielder to shift Kike to 2b and not rely on Marwin at all

 

I’d the Sox need an OF, they probably just promote Duran…

[Nick]

I’d the Sox need an OF, they probably just promote Duran…

 

Speaking of Duran, many here are too old school.

 

These people keep making a point that he only comes up if he plays everyday.

 

Wrong.

 

We're in a pennant race. He comes up to help the ball club. Sure if we had the record of Orioles, you bring him up and let him play every day.

 

That won't be the case. He'll be used to help the team win. That may be base running in one game and starting in another.

 

If he can't help the ball club, keep his ass down in the minors. He is NOT the Dalbec experiment #2. It's about getting into the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

Kike is better in CF than 2B or 1B.

 

I've been saying that since the moment we signed him.

 

Despite two stints on the IL, Arroyo has done nothing to prove he shouldn't be our FT 2Bman.

 

Really, the only non pitching slots that look like weak areas are 1B and bench. We can narrow that down to a LH hitting platoon at 1B and keep Dalbec to hit vs LHPs, but that is a rather narrow role for taking up a roster slot, especially, if we go back to carrying an extra pitcher.

 

Marwin is not going anywhere, despite his sub 600 OPS, but replacing Santana/Chavis could be an easy and inexpensive trade.

 

So,maybe we replace Dalbec on the 26 man roster by trading for a 1Bman (Carlos Santana?). Maybe we keep Dalbec on the roster and replace Santana/Chavis with a 1Bman who hits left-handed. That puts an big strain on Marwin to handle all the other positions, unless we go with one less pitcher on the 26.

 

The pitching situation seems more clear in one way- who can be replaced, but a bit more complicated in another area- who and when can an in system pitcher replace one of these three pitchers:

 

Andriese

Rios

Workman

(maybe Richards at some point)

 

We have Sale, Houck and Brasier/Bazardo/Valdez/Ort, but I'm thinking we add one pitcher by trade.

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Duran, many here are too old school.

 

These people keep making a point that he only comes up if he plays everyday.

 

Wrong.

 

We're in a pennant race. He comes up to help the ball club. Sure if we had the record of Orioles, you bring him up and let him play every day.

 

That won't be the case. He'll be used to help the team win. That may be base running in one game and starting in another.

 

If he can't help the ball club, keep his ass down in the minors. He is NOT the Dalbec experiment #2. It's about getting into the playoffs.

 

It's not all about him playing everyday vs a bench role. It's not about old school vs new school. I don't see any new tradition being established whereby prospects like Duran are being called up earlier than before.

 

It's about him maybe not being ML ready, especially on defense and our lack of need for an OF'er.

 

It's easy to say Duran could do better than Marwin, Santana and Chavis, but you are assuming two things:

 

1. The three players who have been doing poorly will continue to do so or are expected to continue doing that poorly or worse than what we can expect from Duran, which is a very unpredictable thing. I keep hearing, "How can he do any worse?" This makes sense, but only if you assume all players do as poorly as their recent poor sample sizes show. That wasn't the case with Renfroe after April and Dalbec after April and May.

 

2. Duran, who has been struggling at the plate, recently will do better. If you are going by what Duran is doing in AAA, why not call up Cordero? He has better numbers and better recent numbers.

 

There is also Duran's defensive readiness to consider.

 

Why not trust Bloom?

[Hugh2]

Speaking of Duran, many here are too old school.

 

These people keep making a point that he only comes up if he plays everyday.

 

Wrong.

 

We're in a pennant race. He comes up to help the ball club. Sure if we had the record of Orioles, you bring him up and let him play every day.

 

That won't be the case. He'll be used to help the team win. That may be base running in one game and starting in another.

 

If he can't help the ball club, keep his ass down in the minors. He is NOT the Dalbec experiment #2. It's about getting into the playoffs.

 

That will be the case if they decide to bring him up later in the year when the minor league season is done or close to it.

 

If they were to bring him up now, it wouldn’t be to sit the bench.

 

I don’t disagree, I just think the timing matters.

[moonslav59]

Where are all the Kike bashers who were wondering why we signed this guy just 20% into his contract?

[notin]

Speaking of Duran, many here are too old school.

 

These people keep making a point that he only comes up if he plays everyday.

 

Wrong.

 

We're in a pennant race. He comes up to help the ball club. Sure if we had the record of Orioles, you bring him up and let him play every day.

 

That won't be the case. He'll be used to help the team win. That may be base running in one game and starting in another.

 

If he can't help the ball club, keep his ass down in the minors. He is NOT the Dalbec experiment #2. It's about getting into the playoffs.

 

They clearly want Duran playing ever day. That’s why he is still in Worcester.

 

If they need a PR/4th outfielder, they’ll bring up Marcus Wilson, who’s already on 40 man roster and who’s OPS is only 0.012 less than Duran’s. Or more likely, they’ll bring back Franchy Cordero…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

BTV has Downs worth more than 2 times what Santana+Duffy are worth.

 

I’m not sure why you are so down on Downs over 2 months of meh hitting,

 

I think N.Yorke is a better prospect and has made Downs expendable.

 

Just looking at the Red Sox playoff rotation:

 

1.Sale

2.Eovaldi

3.???

4.Pivetta

 

Sticking with what we have:

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Pivetta

4. Perez

 

The Red Sox need an upgrade in the rotation. I don't want Perez in the postseason rotation, he doesn't miss enough bats. I would prefer Pivetta as the 4th starter and find someone better to pitch third in the rotation (2 starts in a 7 game series versus 1).

 

This would be better:

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Gibson

4. Pivetta

 

What would it cost to acquire Gibson? What other starters could the Red Sox pursue in the trade market--again, we want a starter who would slot into the third spot in the postseason rotation? How about Michael Pineda? Danny Duffy? Boyd? German Marquez?

[moonslav59]

 

What would it cost to acquire Gibson?

 

Groome, Ward & Chavis?

[notin]

Groome, Ward & Chavis?

 

Ward has no value right now and Chavis doesn’t make up much difference.

 

A pitcher who might be the most sought after trade target this month is going to cost more than a TJ recovery, an oft-injured A-baller and a positionless K-machine

[oldtimer]

It's not all about him playing everyday vs a bench role. It's not about old school vs new school. I don't see any new tradition being established whereby prospects like Duran are being called up earlier than before.

 

It's about him maybe not being ML ready, especially on defense and our lack of need for an OF'er.

 

It's easy to say Duran could do better than Marwin, Santana and Chavis, but you are assuming two things:

 

1. The three players who have been doing poorly will continue to do so or are expected to continue doing that poorly or worse than what we can expect from Duran, which is a very unpredictable thing. I keep hearing, "How can he do any worse?" This makes sense, but only if you assume all players do as poorly as their recent poor sample sizes show. That wasn't the case with Renfroe after April and Dalbec after April and May.

 

2. Duran, who has been struggling at the plate, recently will do better. If you are going by what Duran is doing in AAA, why not call up Cordero? He has better numbers and better recent numbers.

 

There is also Duran's defensive readiness to consider.

 

Why not trust Bloom?

 

You sure do seem to be anti Duran. even the front office talks of him as the future Sox center fielder. I fully believe he will be called up after the AS break, even though there is no glaring need for him. At 24 he is either ready or he never will be. One way to find out and that is to activate him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Groome, Ward & Chavis?

 

Looking over the Rangers farm system, they have some promising infielders, but lack pitching prospects (ouch, that's one of the reasons they probably can't pass on Jack Leiter).

 

My offer would be Groome, Winckowski, and Marcus Wilson for Gibson. That would give the Rangers two decent pitching prospects, while adding a guy who profiles as a solid 4th outfielder, platoon bat (useful). This trade would reduce next season's 40 man roster crunch for the Red Sox. However, my offer might not be enough....

 

BTW, why is Gibson so good this year, after sucking in 2020? This article addresses his improvements:

https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/news/rangers-gibson-gaining-league-wide-attention-with-stellar-season

Edited July 11, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Larry Cook]

The rangers might surprise and take rocker.

[Hugh2]

You sure do seem to be anti Duran. even the front office talks of him as the future Sox center fielder. I fully believe he will be called up after the AS break, even though there is no glaring need for him. At 24 he is either ready or he never will be. One way to find out and that is to activate him.

 

He’s not the future CFer for the Boston Red Sox.

[Hugh2]

I think N.Yorke is a better prospect and has made Downs expendable.

 

Just looking at the Red Sox playoff rotation:

 

1.Sale

2.Eovaldi

3.???

4.Pivetta

 

Sticking with what we have:

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Pivetta

4. Perez

 

The Red Sox need an upgrade in the rotation. I don't want Perez in the postseason rotation, he doesn't miss enough bats. I would prefer Pivetta as the 4th starter and find someone better to pitch third in the rotation (2 starts in a 7 game series versus 1).

 

This would be better:

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. Gibson

4. Pivetta

 

What would it cost to acquire Gibson? What other starters could the Red Sox pursue in the trade market--again, we want a starter who would slot into the third spot in the postseason rotation? How about Michael Pineda? Danny Duffy? Boyd? German Marquez?

 

I’m not sure I’d call Yorke a better prospect just yet. I like Downs much better in the field, and he’s still fairly young for AAA, much more advanced than Yorke.

 

I think Downs will be knocking on the door next year, he’s going to be MLB ready sooner than Yorke at a position we need to fill.

 

Now. I think Downs is expendable in the right trade, anyone is and if Yorke keeps up his level of play he’s going to start shooting up the prospect rankings.

[notin]

You sure do seem to be anti Duran. even the front office talks of him as the future Sox center fielder. I fully believe he will be called up after the AS break, even though there is no glaring need for him. At 24 he is either ready or he never will be. One way to find out and that is to activate him.

 

The Sox position so far seems to be “Duran needs to play every day.” For that to happen in Boston, that would require an injury or a starter being traded (which isn’t very likely).

 

Just because many people feel that Duran will be treated this way largely because most top prospects are doesn’t make them “anti-Duran.” There are several prospects ranked above him also not getting called up…

[moonslav59]

You sure do seem to be anti Duran. even the front office talks of him as the future Sox center fielder. I fully believe he will be called up after the AS break, even though there is no glaring need for him. At 24 he is either ready or he never will be. One way to find out and that is to activate him.

 

Why is saying I trust Bloom knows when to call him up being down on Duran?

 

Why is not wanting to bench Kike or Arroyo showing disrespect to Duran?

 

I'd love nothing more than Bloom thinking he's ready, now and calling him up to watch him do very well. I think Duran is our best prospect and Casas is rated twice as highly on BTV.

 

Look, I don't want Kike playing 2B or 1B. He's our best defensive CF'er, and I thought that before today's proof positive.

 

Do you want to bench Verdugo? Platoon Renfroe and Verdugo?

 

Duran can't play 1B or the IF like Santana, Chavis and Marwin can do, so he won't be "replacing" their ABs.

 

Not wanting Duran to play just once a week is no reflection on my placing a value on him.

 

Frankly, I'm getting tired of having to defend myself, when I'm really just backing Bloom & Cora's intelligence and knowledge over my own.

[moonslav59]

Looking over the Rangers farm system, they have some promising infielders, but lack pitching prospects (ouch, that's one of the reasons they probably can't pass on Jack Leiter).

 

My offer would be Groome, Winckowski, and Marcus Wilson for Gibson. That would give the Rangers two decent pitching prospects, while adding a guy who profiles as a solid 4th outfielder, platoon bat (useful). This trade would reduce next season's 40 man roster crunch for the Red Sox. However, my offer might not be enough....

 

BTW, why is Gibson so good this year, after sucking in 2020? This article addresses his improvements:

https://www.si.com/mlb/rangers/news/rangers-gibson-gaining-league-wide-attention-with-stellar-season

 

I like the fact that Gibson has another year of team control, so he's not a "rental," but it might also take more to get him for that reason.

 

Your offer is higher than mine, so that might get it done.

 

Would we try to get them to add Kennedy to a deal?

 

I'm kinda thinking a Duffy, Santana and enough cash to stay under might be our best get.