A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

His 2016 and 2018 seasons were better.

 

This guy can pitch. He has one of the best K rates in MLB over the last 3-5 years.

 

He needs to listen to Barnes and start attacking hitters more.

[moonslav59]

He needs to listen to Barnes and start attacking hitters more.

 

He needs something.

 

I think he'll improve as the season warms up.

 

(Maybe that's just wishful thinking.)

[mvp 78]

He needs something.

 

I think he'll improve as the season warms up.

 

(Maybe that's just wishful thinking.)

 

April/May are his best months per his career splits. Maybe he needs to just get into a rhythm with Vaz?

[moonslav59]

April/May are his best months per his career splits. Maybe he needs to just get into a rhythm with Vaz?

 

Maybe it's Vaz that needs to learn rhythm.

 

He does not do well with many pitchers compared to his back-up.

[moonslav59]

Let's hope last night's outing by Eovaldi is a sign he's getting back in the groove.

 

It's hard to imagine us competing without a healthy and productive Nathan.

 

I'm not sure how much longer the surprise P & P twins will keep this up (Pivetta & Perez).

 

Richards is looking more and more "for real," and he too, needs to stay healthy.

 

ERod is ERod: just win, baby! Do whatever it takes.

[notin]

April/May are his best months per his career splits. Maybe he needs to just get into a rhythm with Vaz?

 

Hey maybe the short season last year threw off a lot of his rhythms...

[moonslav59]

Hey maybe the short season last year threw off a lot of his rhythms...

 

Pitchers and batters, too.

[dgalehouse]

The feeling is that the Sox have gotten off to a great start. And the feeling is that the Yankees have floundered. However, a check of the standings shows the Sox are only one game up in the loss column. The head to head competition, when they finally do meet , will probably tell the story of our chances for the division.

[moonslav59]

Our rotation has been upside down, the last 2 weeks:

 

2.20 Perez

2.81 Pivetta

3.75 Richards

4.41 Eovaldi

4.50 ERod

 

Last 28 days

3.14 Richards

3.16 Pivetta

3.54 ERod

3.80 Perez

5.23 Eovaldi

Edited May 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

The feeling is that the Sox have gotten off to a great start. And the feeling is that the Yankees have floundered. However, a check of the standings shows the Sox are only one game up in the loss column.

 

Things can change in a hurry, in a game where you play almost every day.

 

The Yankees are 10-3 in last 13.

[notin]

The feeling is that the Sox have gotten off to a great start. And the feeling is that the Yankees have floundered. However, a check of the standings shows the Sox are only one game up in the loss column. The head to head competition, when they finally do meet , will probably tell the story of our chances for the division.

 

A lot of those feelings were based on expectations going in.

 

We expected the Sox to struggle and be much worse. We expected the Yankees to take charge in the division immediately. That we are still in the lead in mid-May is far ahead of what even the most optimistic (except Kimmi) thought of this team. Most of the optimists said about .500, and that still might happen. But that doesn't make the team less enjoyable now...

[moonslav59]

Things can change in a hurry, in a game where you play almost every day.

 

The Yankees are 10-3 in last 13.

 

They sure can! And, the Yanks haven't really started hitting all that much better.

[moonslav59]

Runs scored per game:

 

0-1 5 times

2-3 11 times

3-4 9 times

5-6 8 times

7-8 3 times

9+ 7 times

 

0-2 10 times

3-5 11 times

6-8 9 times

9+ 7 times

 

0-3 16 times

4-7 14 times

8+ 7 times

 

We are 3-13 in games where we score 0-3 runs.

3-0 in 4 run games

6-2 in 5-6 run games

10-0 in 7+ games

 

Runs Allowed

10-0 in games where we allowed 0-2 runs.

3-3 on 3 run games (should not be like this)

3-4 in 4 run games (same)

3-4 in 5-6 games

3-4 in 7+ games (weird)

 

Comeback wins: 15

 

Blown leads (may not mean a loss) ONLY 5!

(Largest blown lead? 2 runs)

Edited May 12, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

It's May 12th, and the best records in MLB are by these teams:

 

STL

SFG

CHW

BOS

OAK

 

CLE

NYM

SDP

 

Nobody else is more than 3 games over .500.

[Kimmi]

The feeling is that the Sox have gotten off to a great start. And the feeling is that the Yankees have floundered. However, a check of the standings shows the Sox are only one game up in the loss column. The head to head competition, when they finally do meet , will probably tell the story of our chances for the division.

 

I still think that the Yankees will win the division. However, I think this Sox team is a lot better than people gave and are still giving them credit for. Our current winning percentage of .595 would give us 96 wins over the season. I don't think we'll sustain that pace, but definitely think we will contend for a playoff spot all season.

 

I'm looking forward to knocking the Yankees out in the ALCS.

[Kimmi]

It's May 12th, and the best records in MLB are by these teams:

 

STL

SFG

CHW

BOS

OAK

 

CLE

NYM

SDP

 

Nobody else is more than 3 games over .500.

 

The White Sox are the best team in baseball right now.

[Nick]

good summary on Matt Barnes, 2021 version

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-barnes-one-simple-trick/

 

Quick Discussion on throwing 1st pitch strike and swinging at 1st pitch strike.

 

"When batters connect, they do more damage, as evidenced by the wOBAcon column (league average hovers around .370 in most years). That offsets the whiffs and fouls, such that the overall run value is slightly in the hitter’s favor. In other words, if you throw a pitch in the strike zone and the batter swings, you’re losing out on the deal.

 

That’s only half the equation, though. When batters don’t swing, well, it’s a celebration. The loss in expected production after a first-pitch strike is massive. It works out to roughly four runs per 100 plate appearances, 10 times better for the pitcher than a first pitch swing is bad. Unless batters are swinging over 90% of the time at strikes, the zone is the place to live on first pitches.

 

Unsurprisingly, batters aren’t swinging over 90% of the time. They’re swinging at 0-0 pitches in the zone 44% of the time so far this year, the highest mark since pitch tracking started in 2008. That development is a step in the right direction on the offensive side, because letting a first pitch strike fly by is disastrous, but hitters would need to swing a lot more before flooding the zone stopped making sense."

 

In essence the article is saying that unless hitters swing at almost every first pitch strike, advantage goes to pitcher throwing the first pitch strike. Good read.

Edited May 12, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

The White Sox are the best team in baseball right now.

 

I didn't care about Moncada but I sure hated to lose Kopech. No regrets with Sale coming over.

[moonslav59]

The White Sox are the best team in baseball right now.

 

Agreed, but STL & SFG have slightly better winning %'s.

[moonslav59]

Due to side affects of vaccine.

 

Will he miss a start, tomorrow?

 

With Houck shut down, will we go with an opener? (Whitlock or Andriese)

[Nick]

Not complaining but..

 

Can someone with pitching background explain to me how the Sox is stretching out Whitlock? He pitched 2 innings on May 7th. He's pitching into 3rd inning tonight.

 

Do you get stretched out throwing in the pen? Two innings every 6 days does not seem to be 'stretching' in my opinion.

 

How do you stretch out a guy?

 

Or is everything about Whitlock being on the team simply because of Rule 5 and the team is just babying him due to his recent injury?

 

I just think he's being under utilized.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Per MasLive

 

Sale in good spirits

 

Cora spoke with left-hander Chris Sale (recovering from Tommy John surgery) earlier this week and said Sale was in good spirits. He continues to work out at Fenway South and threw off the mound for the first time last Tuesday.

 

Cora didn’t disclose what the next steps are for Sale but did note he is throwing aggressive flat ground sessions in preparation for longer bullpens.

 

“He’s feeling good about it,” Cora said.

 

Finally pitched off the mound.

[iortiz]

Per MasLive

 

Sale in good spirits

 

Cora spoke with left-hander Chris Sale (recovering from Tommy John surgery) earlier this week and said Sale was in good spirits. He continues to work out at Fenway South and threw off the mound for the first time last Tuesday.

 

Cora didn’t disclose what the next steps are for Sale but did note he is throwing aggressive flat ground sessions in preparation for longer bullpens.

 

“He’s feeling good about it,” Cora said.

 

Finally pitched off the mound.

 

Excuse my ignorance but what’s the difference between throwing off the mound and flat ground in terms of strength/healthy condition for a pitcher?

[jacksonianmarch]

Excuse my ignorance but what’s the difference between throwing off the mound and flat ground in terms of strength/healthy condition for a pitcher?

 

Throwing off a mound generates far more downward plane and is usually when the pitcher airs it out. Nobody throws 100% off flat ground

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is finally to .600.

 

Renfroe to .650.

 

Bogey is over 1.000

 

Richards got his ERA under 4 (3.89).

[iortiz]

Throwing off a mound generates far more downward plane and is usually when the pitcher airs it out. Nobody throws 100% off flat ground

 

Thanks for the info jacko.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have an incredibly hard schedule from May 31st to August 1st. Every team can win at any time, but we need to have a lead by the end of May, or we'll be looking at some long odds.

 

We haven't always done all that well vs the worse teams, and some of the teams are not push-overs, but they should be easier to beat than the stretch I'm talking about.

 

Here are our next 14 games:

LAA

LAA

LAA

off (start of 3 out of 11 days off- no 14 pitchers?)

@TOR

@TOR

@TOR

@PHI

@PHI

@PHI

off

ATL

ATL

off (3 out of 11 days off)

MIA

MIA

MIA

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Excuse my ignorance but what’s the difference between throwing off the mound and flat ground in terms of strength/healthy condition for a pitcher?

 

As long as we don't underestimate the gravity of the situation.

[Hugh2]

Honestly, if we could play that stretch @ .500 I'd be happy.

[moonslav59]

Honestly, if we could play that stretch @ .500 I'd be happy.

 

If we play this 14 game stretch at .500, it's hard to imagine doing that through June & July.