A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[jacksonianmarch]

If your starters stop giving you innings, then the Sox brass needs to get creative. Losing Mata and Houck is big, as they could have paired with Whitlock to be regular multi inning relievers to piggy back on your worst short start offenders. Bloom has been a big fan of versatility out of his pitchers, but eventually you run out of arms when the system is short. I’d assume Valdez and Brice would be used more frequently in a long reliever role, likely Brice in games youre losing and Whitlock/Valdez for games where you’re tied or winning?

[moonslav59]

Workman may be in the mix as well.

 

In time, yes.

 

That would be very nice.

[moonslav59]

If your starters stop giving you innings, then the Sox brass needs to get creative. Losing Mata and Houck is big, as they could have paired with Whitlock to be regular multi inning relievers to piggy back on your worst short start offenders. Bloom has been a big fan of versatility out of his pitchers, but eventually you run out of arms when the system is short. I’d assume Valdez and Brice would be used more frequently in a long reliever role, likely Brice in games youre losing and Whitlock/Valdez for games where you’re tied or winning?

 

Andriese is the other "long man," already.

 

I guess it shouldn't be surprising that starters off to a good start would be going 5+ innings almost every start, but to me, the IP numbers are almost as surprising as their ERA+'s.

 

Eovaldi 97 (just dipped below 100)

Has gone into the 5th inning in all 9 starts and has given us 5 or more IP in 8 starts.

 

ERod 105 (considerably down from his last few seasons)

Has gone 5.0 IP in all 7 starts.

 

Richards 112 (slightly above his career 106 mark)

Went just 2 IP in his first start but has gone 4.2 or more in his next 7. Has gone 7 IP, twice.

 

Perez 128 (career tops was 104 in 2020 and 2016)

Had two starts with 3.2 IP and 5.0 or more in his other 6.

 

Pivetta 138 (by far his best career ERA+)

Went 3.2 IP in one start and 5 or 6 IP in his other 7.

 

(Houck has gone into the 5th inning each of his 2 starts. 4.1 in one.)

 

Total

Only 4 starts out of 42 with a starter not going into the 5th inning.

 

36 out of 42, our SP'ers went 5.0 or more IP!

 

 

[moonslav59]

Kike homered twice, yesterday at AAA.

 

Lopez homered, again!

 

Duran went 1 for 3 with a walk and a double. After starting the year 0 for 11, Duran is now 13 for 35 in his last nine games with 25 total bases in that stretch.

 

Marcus Wilson continues doing well by going 2 for 4 with 2 doubles.

 

[Nick]

I don't want to put my thinking cap, maybe one of you can.

 

What good is it to have a long reliever if he's shut down almost a week because of pitching multiple inning, say 3?

 

Is it better to use 3 pitchers instead knowing they can come back in 2 days?

 

Why stretch out Whitlock if he's not going to start? Our we better off using him in more high leverage situations knowing he doesn't walk many batters?

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't want to put my thinking cap, maybe one of you can.

 

What good is it to have a long reliever if he's shut down almost a week because of pitching multiple inning, say 3?

 

Is it better to use 3 pitchers instead knowing they can come back in 2 days?

 

Why stretch out Whitlock if he's not going to start? Our we better off using him in more high leverage situations knowing he doesn't walk many batters?

 

IP and pitches dictate. Most "long" relievers give 2 innings and usually take a one day break before being available again. You start piggy backing beyond that and you will need 2-3 days rest, but not the usual 4 unless they go a full starter's oad (5IP or 70+ pitches)

[Bellhorn04]

I don't want to put my thinking cap, maybe one of you can.

 

What good is it to have a long reliever if he's shut down almost a week because of pitching multiple inning, say 3?

 

Is it better to use 3 pitchers instead knowing they can come back in 2 days?

 

Why stretch out Whitlock if he's not going to start? Our we better off using him in more high leverage situations knowing he doesn't walk many batters?

 

They haven't needed him to start yet, all 5 of our starters have been healthy and pitched well.

 

In his last outing he threw 52 pitches, so he could probably throw 4 innings and 60-65 pitches next outing.

[Nick]

IP and pitches dictate. Most "long" relievers give 2 innings and usually take a one day break before being available again. You start piggy backing beyond that and you will need 2-3 days rest, but not the usual 4 unless they go a full starter's oad (5IP or 70+ pitches)

 

Thanks.....I just can't figure out our bullpen usage....it just seems random...maybe they're searching.

[Nick]

They haven't needed him to start yet, all 5 of our starters have been healthy and pitched well.

 

In his last outing he threw 52 pitches, so he could probably throw 4 innings and 60-65 pitches next outing.

 

Thanks....so it's more of pitch count than the innings, which makes sense

[mvp 78]

They haven't needed him to start yet, all 5 of our starters have been healthy and pitched well.

 

In his last outing he threw 52 pitches, so he could probably throw 4 innings and 60-65 pitches next outing.

 

For Whitlock, I think they are also mindful that he's coming off TJS and are trying to baby him a little. I'm fine keeping the training wheels on him this year.

[Nick]

For Whitlock, I think they are also mindful that he's coming off TJS and are trying to baby him a little. I'm fine keeping the training wheels on him this year.

 

So maybe we'll use Sale out of the pen if he comes back Aug/Sept?

[mvp 78]

So maybe we'll use Sale out of the pen if he comes back Aug/Sept?

 

I think that's the most likely course of action. Or he'll just be used as an opener and only go a few innings at a time. I don't see him getting to 6 innings in a game this season.

[moonslav59]

I don't want to put my thinking cap, maybe one of you can.

 

What good is it to have a long reliever if he's shut down almost a week because of pitching multiple inning, say 3?

 

Is it better to use 3 pitchers instead knowing they can come back in 2 days?

 

Why stretch out Whitlock if he's not going to start? Our we better off using him in more high leverage situations knowing he doesn't walk many batters?

 

I see it this way, having a guy that can go 3-4 innings every 3-5 days gives the whole pen a day off, and since all of our starters hardly ever go 7 innings, we don't have to postpone using him every 4 days or so, because someone went 8 innings.

 

Having a guy ready to start and give us maybe 4-5 innings in a start is a big plus. We've gone 7 weeks without anyone missing a start. That could be considered very lucky. We very likely will need at least a spot start here or there, soon- maybe more.

 

If Whitlock comes in the game in the 5th or 6th, preferably starting an inning, he can finish the game, thereby getting some high leverage innings along the way and saving Barnes from pitching back to back.

[moonslav59]

They haven't needed him to start yet, all 5 of our starters have been healthy and pitched well.

 

In his last outing he threw 52 pitches, so he could probably throw 4 innings and 60-65 pitches next outing.

 

We did need 2 starts from Houck. I think one was a doubleheader and the other was at the start of the year, when ERod was given a late starting the season.

 

We shouldn't need a 6th starter, unless someone gets hurt or a rainout forces a doubleheader, again.

[moonslav59]

I think that's the most likely course of action. Or he'll just be used as an opener and only go a few innings at a time. I don't see him getting to 6 innings in a game this season.

 

Maybe we piggyback Sale & Whitlock.

[moonslav59]

We just passed the quarter season mark.

 

Here are our OPS leaders:

 

1.025 JD

1.013 Bogey

.937 Devers

 

.784 Verdugo

.766 Plawecki

.723 Hernandez

.710 Arroyo

 

.657 Dalbec

.656 Vaz

.649 Renfroe

.624 Marwin

 

.448 Cordero

 

Last 14 Days:

1.283 Plawecki

1.278 Hernandez

1.111 Bogey

.942 Devers

 

.807 Dalbec

.789 JD

.775 Arauz

.769 Renfroe

.741 Chavis

 

.666 Vaz

.662 Marwin

.630 Verdugo

.538 Cordero

 

Less than 28 PAs

.775 Arauz

.741 Chavis

 

OPS Against 2021

RP'ers:

.376 Barnes

.393 Valdezs

.450 Bazardo (12 PAs)

.609 Ottavino (not bad considering 12 BBs in 75 PAs)

.612 Whitlock

.744 DHern

.799 Sawamura

.806 Houck (2 GS'd)

.831 Taylor

.867 Brice

.867 Andriese

 

Starters:

.602 Pivetta

.647 Eovaldi

.670 Perez

.735 Richards

.759 ERod

 

 

Last 14 Days:

.350 Taylor

.368 Barnes

.429 Bazardo

.439 Valdez

.557 Ottavino

.675 DHern

.688 Sawamura

.984 Brice

1.006 Whitlock

1.176 Andriese

 

.556 Perez (3 GS)

.598 Pivetta (3GS)

.647 Eovaldi (3)

.744 Richards (2)

.898 ERod (2)

 

Do we start using Valdez & Taylor more often and in higher leverage situations?

Edited May 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

They should use Taylor and Valdez more in higher leverage situations. Ottavino is a white knuckle reliever IMO.

[moonslav59]

Some of these numbers might be surprising. (note some very small sample sizes)

 

OPS Against in High Leverage (PAs)

.000 Sawamura (3)

.267 Barnes (38)

.500 Valdez (4) Yes, try him some more

.644 Ottavino (47) not as bad as I expected

.661 Taylor (8) more, here too?

.733 DHern (31) too many PAs here

.800 Whitlock (15)

.810 Andriese (36) very bad, lately

1.167 Houck (7)

1.333 Brice (3) thank God only 3.

 

Late & Close:

.325 Barnes (53)

.507 Taylor (17)

.553 Ottavino (64)

.696 Andriese (41)

.909 Sawamura (11)

1.000 Houck (4)

1.125 Whitlock (16)

1.136 DHern (29)

 

Seems like we need to move away from DHern & Andriese, late in games, and start using Valdez & Taylor more often, but then again, maybe they are about to slump.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

They should use Taylor and Valdez more in higher leverage situations.

 

It's happening.

[notin]

They should use Taylor and Valdez more in higher leverage situations. Ottavino is a white knuckle reliever IMO.

 

Taylor is becoming a bright spot in the bullpen.

[moonslav59]

Taylor is becoming a bright spot in the bullpen.

 

Taylor did very well in 47.1 IP in 2019.

 

.642 OPS against

1.183 WHIP

3.11 FIP

11.8 K/9

 

Let's hope he can come close to those numbers, this year.

 

[moonslav59]

It's happening.

 

I'm talking 8th inning stressful situations.

 

While the 7th inning can be high leverage, we have not used Taylor very much in Late & Close situations. He pitched the 9th in our 11-6 win on May 6th and the 9th in a 6-3 loss on April 21st.

 

Valdez was not used from April 24 to May 6th (injury? no IL). He's been used mostly in the 6th or 7th and once in the 9th in a 6-2 win and the 8th in a 4-1 loss.

 

Neither has been used in a tight game beyond the 7th inning in over 5 weeks.

[moonslav59]

Starter ERA last 28 days:

 

2.08 Perez

2.89 Pivetta

3.03 Richards

4.34 ERod

5.79 Eovaldi

 

Team record in starts:

6-2 Pivetta

5-2 ERod

5-4 Eovaldi

4-4 Perez

4-4 Richards

0-2 Houck

 

Yankee team records:

5-2 German

5-3 Cole

5-3 Kluber

5-3 Montgomery

2-5 Taillon

0-1 Garcia

0-1 Nelson

Edited May 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I'm talking 8th inning stressful situations.

 

While the 7th inning can be high leverage, we have not used Taylor very much in Late & Close situations. He pitched the 9th in our 11-6 win on May 6th and the 9th in a 6-3 loss on April 21st.

 

Valdez was not used from April 24 to May 6th (injury? no IL). He's been used mostly in the 6th or 7th and once in the 9th in a 6-2 win and the 8th in a 4-1 loss.

 

Neither has been used in a tight game beyond the 7th inning in over 5 weeks.

 

Taylor's last 2 outings were 7th inning with 1 run leads. That's a major change from how he was being used earlier.

[moonslav59]

Taylor's last 2 outings were 7th inning with 1 run leads. That's a major change from how he was being used earlier.

 

I didn't realize those were 1 run games, so you are right.

 

It is happening, but let's see if they use him in the 8th, soon.

[harmony]

FiveThirtyEight surprisingly give the Red Sox only a 32 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ranking behind the chances of the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FanGraphs currently ranks the Red Sox, with a 53 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ahead of the Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[notin]

FiveThirtyEight surprisingly give the Red Sox only a 32 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ranking behind the chances of the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FanGraphs currently ranks the Red Sox, with a 53 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ahead of the Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

And what were their numbers in March?

[Nick]

Start of the year.....capacity limited to 12 1/2 %

Last six home games.....capacity limited to 25%

Come May 29th.....100% capacity

 

Congrats to Mass residents on fast recovery during May. It will be rocking at Fenway.

[Bellhorn04]

FiveThirtyEight surprisingly give the Red Sox only a 32 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ranking behind the chances of the Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

FanGraphs currently ranks the Red Sox, with a 53 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, ahead of the Rays and Blue Jays:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

And Baseball-Reference only has us at 26.2 percent.

[Kimmi]

Fans of teams in the al East are all different:

 

Sox fans are passionate to the very edge! Some maybe over the edge!

 

Yankees fans are generally undereducated band wagoners! They are only there for the good times.

 

Toronto fans are only fans after hockey season ends for the leafs, (usually late may)

 

Tampa has nearly no real fans.

 

Baltimore fans are almost all over 80 years old and the population of then is drastically shrinking daily!

 

There is no doubt that Sox fans are the best!