A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/grading-chaim-blooms-biggest-red-sox-trades-shows-pattern-hes-winning

 

Here's a very good read on Bloom's trades thus far......

 

Betts A

Pivetta A+

Beni C- I don't think you'll fully know until the players to be named later are named

Ottavino C It was a cash transaction to purchase Frank German. Anything we get out of Ottavino is plus.

Moreland C

 

Throw in Rule 5 pick, Bloom is doing exactly what he was hired to do.

 

What good would Moreland have done us, last year?

 

We got two good prospects for him (Potts & Rosario).

 

It's hard to give that trade any grade, at this point.

 

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/grading-chaim-blooms-biggest-red-sox-trades-shows-pattern-hes-winning

 

Here's a very good read on Bloom's trades thus far......

 

Betts A

Pivetta A+

Beni C- I don't think you'll fully know until the players to be named later are named

Ottavino C It was a cash transaction to purchase Frank German. Anything we get out of Ottavino is plus.

Moreland C

 

Throw in Rule 5 pick, Bloom is doing exactly what he was hired to do.

 

I might even say he's doing more than that, considering our record.

 

IMHO one of the key moves by Bloom was re-hiring Cora. Based on the reports, he was conflicted about it because of the cheating stuff and they had some intense discussions, but Cora ultimately won him over.

[dannycater]

I respect your views, but he is indeed a GG candidate every year.

[dannycater]

no grade on Moreland, but even 4 days a week he's better than what Dalbec offered this season.

[Bellhorn04]

no grade on Moreland, but even 4 days a week he's better than what Dalbec offered this season.

 

That grade was for the trade last year. Mitch was a free agent at the end of the season.

 

Dalbec has upside and is hopefully getting it going now.

[dannycater]

Dalbec has to pick it up, but in his defense team is doing well, he is a pretty good defensive 1b, and you can develop him in the process...downside he becomes the Sox new JBJR

[jad]

Dalbec has to pick it up, but in his defense team is doing well, he is a pretty good defensive 1b, and you can develop him in the process...downside he becomes the Sox new JBJR

 

Being the next JBJ would not be a downside.

[Nick]

What good would Moreland have done us, last year?

 

We got two good prospects for him (Potts & Rosario).

 

It's hard to give that trade any grade, at this point.

 

 

True....obviously I'm not the one giving out the grades...

[Nick]

That grade was for the trade last year. Mitch was a free agent at the end of the season.

 

Dalbec has upside and is hopefully getting it going now.

 

I agree.

 

The goal is to contend this year and identify core group for the future.

 

Red Sox is good enough to carry Dalbec as the 9th batter. Obviously we can't have 7, 8 and 9 hitting below .200.

 

If the experiment fails, that is if Dalbec continues to struggle against right handers, then just platoon him.

 

We're in first place and first two out should be Cordero and Renfroe, not Dalbec.

[dgalehouse]

Many fans love to play G.M. The players are just expendable chess pieces. When the GM makes a move , it is immediately evaluated. The funny thing is that they rarely change their opinion, even when the results indicate they were wrong. They can always fall back on countering with something like , " The young prospect, Freddy Farge , might still turn out to be a good ballplayer."

[moonslav59]

I respect your views, but he is indeed a GG candidate every year.

He’s never a GG candidate.

[notin]

I respect your views, but he is indeed a GG candidate every year.

 

No. Bogaerts is never in the Gold Glove conversation.

 

But you are correct in that to date, he is a good MVP candidate. If you have any faith in Fangraphs and fWAR, he entered today’s game tied for second in the AL with 1.7 fWAR, along with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and teammate JD Martinez...

[notin]

I agree.

 

The goal is to contend this year and identify core group for the future.

 

Red Sox is good enough to carry Dalbec as the 9th batter. Obviously we can't have 7, 8 and 9 hitting below .200.

 

If the experiment fails, that is if Dalbec continues to struggle against right handers, then just platoon him.

 

We're in first place and first two out should be Cordero and Renfroe, not Dalbec.

 

Renfroe has been a monster in his limited role since May began. He entered today’s game with a .871 OPS, and has added a home run today.

 

Dalbec entered today with a .410 OPS in May...

[Nick]

Renfroe has been a monster in his limited role since May began. He entered today’s game with a .871 OPS, and has added a home run today.

 

Dalbec entered today with a .410 OPS in May...

 

I'm guessing Cordero will be the first to be sent down when Danny Santana is ready.

Edited May 9, 2021 by Nick

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Renfroe has been a monster in his limited role since May began. He entered today’s game with a .871 OPS, and has added a home run today.

 

Dalbec entered today with a .410 OPS in May...

 

Based on that offensive metric, Renfroe has been twice as good as Dalbec. Hunter also plays a decent right field; he made a nice catch today. But how many bounced throws has Dalbec scooped at first base, saving errors/runs/outs/pitch counts/infinite agita? I don't know if there's a stat to prove it, but anyone who's watched most of the games would have to agree that Dalbec has been unsung -- and one of the most important players -- in helping the first-place Red Sox... with the leather.

[notin]

Many fans love to play G.M. The players are just expendable chess pieces. When the GM makes a move , it is immediately evaluated. The funny thing is that they rarely change their opinion, even when the results indicate they were wrong. They can always fall back on countering with something like , " The young prospect, Freddy Farge , might still turn out to be a good ballplayer."

 

Or sometimes they cling to “yeah but that prospect we traded away never turned into anything good”....

[Bellhorn04]

I think we can all agree there are two clear-cut candidates for demotion: Cordero and Brice.

[Bellhorn04]

Or sometimes they cling to “yeah but that prospect we traded away never turned into anything good”....

 

Yes, we all have our confirmation biases.

[moonslav59]

I think we can all agree there are two clear-cut candidates for demotion: Cordero and Brice.

 

I wouldn't disagree.

 

Not long ago, Taylor would be on the short list. He's done pretty well, lately.

 

I'm not sure when the new date for Santana's opt out is, but when it's up, my guess is that is when we make the first move. We might decide to DFA Brice to bring up Santana, but it looks like they really like having 14 pitchers.

 

Houck is no longer an option to be called up, so there is no clear pitcher to call up that has a very promising outlook. I guess Brasier is out for a while, too.

[Nick]

Not complaining....

 

Cora was elated that Richards went 7 innings yesterday, saying it gave our bullpen chance to reset for today.

 

Then he brings in Taylor who was very fortunate in his outing today.

 

Other than Barnes, not sure what the pecking order is. I know he wants Ottavino to Barnes set up but Ottavino continues to struggle with his command.

[notin]

I think we can all agree there are two clear-cut candidates for demotion: Cordero and Brice.

 

Brice cannot be demoted without being exposed to waivers, which he might not clear.

 

Don’t get me wrong; I’m still in favor of it...

[moonslav59]

I'd say Ottavino is still the number 1 set up man.

 

Sawamura and Andriese might be next, but Andriese is also being used as a 2 inning guy- sometimes in the 5th or 6th inning.

 

Whitlock is supposed be be "stretched out," so I'm not sure he's an 8th inning guy, unless he pitches the 6-7-8th or 7th & 8th.

 

Valdez has done well, and it has seemed like it's been with smoke and mirrors, but he did the same thing, last year, so maybe he's for real.

 

I can't see DHern as a top set-up man until he can get his control in order.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Darwinzon, Taylor, Ottavino... why does it sometimes seem like a prerequisite for being a late-inning reliever is to walk (or drill) the leadoff batter? This bullpen for the team with the best record in the majors can't be an anomaly -- can it? Not when all the other teams have worse records... It just always seems like a threat with the Sox.

 

Maybe it's just one of the reasons MLB pitchers become relievers, not being consistent enough to be reliable starters? Or maybe it's just looks more urgent in the 7th or 8th, than when a starter does it in, say, the 2nd, 3rd or 4th...

[moonslav59]

Darwinzon, Taylor, Ottavino... why does it sometimes seem like a prerequisite for being a late-inning reliever is to walk (or drill) the leadoff batter? This bullpen for the team with the best record in the majors can't be an anomaly -- can it? Not when all the other teams have worse records... It just always seems like a threat with the Sox.

 

Maybe it's just one of the reasons MLB pitchers become relievers, not being consistent enough to be reliable starters? Or maybe it's just looks more urgent in the 7th or 8th, than when a starter does it in, say, the 2nd, 3rd or 4th...

 

Good points. Maybe it’s less warm-up time or coming into a different situation than a starter comes into.

[notin]

Darwinzon, Taylor, Ottavino... why does it sometimes seem like a prerequisite for being a late-inning reliever is to walk (or drill) the leadoff batter? This bullpen for the team with the best record in the majors can't be an anomaly -- can it? Not when all the other teams have worse records... It just always seems like a threat with the Sox.

 

Maybe it's just one of the reasons MLB pitchers become relievers, not being consistent enough to be reliable starters? Or maybe it's just looks more urgent in the 7th or 8th, than when a starter does it in, say, the 2nd, 3rd or 4th...

 

I couldn't find any data on this, beyond the fact that the Sox are in the middle of the league in both BB and HBP with no men on base (which does include leadoff hitters, but is obviously a bigger set). But I was not even able to break it down between starters and relievers...

[jacksonianmarch]

I think everyone is seeing Pivetta as a smoke and mirrors kind of pitcher at this point. He cannot continue to win with the peripherals he is showing. 5.6BB/9IP, career high. His HR rate in his last full season was almost 2 per 9IP. This year, it's 0.29. His career HR/FB ratio is around 17%. This year, it's under 4%. Craziest thing is, he isnt generating any more ground balls than he has in year's past and he isnt striking out more than he has before either. So to recap, his walk rate has skyrocketed, his HR rate has plummeted yet he isnt getting more grounders and isnt K'ing more. The bloom will fall off the rose on this one without a major shift in his production

[moonslav59]

I think everyone is seeing Pivetta as a smoke and mirrors kind of pitcher at this point. He cannot continue to win with the peripherals he is showing. 5.6BB/9IP, career high. His HR rate in his last full season was almost 2 per 9IP. This year, it's 0.29. His career HR/FB ratio is around 17%. This year, it's under 4%. Craziest thing is, he isnt generating any more ground balls than he has in year's past and he isnt striking out more than he has before either. So to recap, his walk rate has skyrocketed, his HR rate has plummeted yet he isnt getting more grounders and isnt K'ing more. The bloom will fall off the rose on this one without a major shift in his production

 

He’s always had really good stuff, so “smoke and mirrors” might be a little harsh. His issues have been BBs and HRs. It weird he’s doing so well and walking more guys than ever. The low HRs might not be a fluke, though,

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s always had really good stuff, so “smoke and mirrors” might be a little harsh. His issues have been BBs and HRs. It weird he’s doing so well and walking more guys than ever. The low HRs might not be a fluke, though,

 

I would buy the low HR not being a fluke if his GB rate spiked. But the only thing that has happened is the FB's he has been allowing just aren't leaving the park. That isnt something that is sustainable

[dgalehouse]

Message board forums seem to attract a different breed of fan. More analytical and deep thinking. The boys down at Clancy's never talk about UZR , Babip or peripherals. But they are good fans nevertheless.

[jacksonianmarch]

Message board forums seem to attract a different breed of fan. More analytical and deep thinking. The boys down at Clancy's never talk about UZR , Babip or peripherals. But they are good fans nevertheless.

 

It has nothing to do with your fanhood. It has everything to do with your expectation.