A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

Chavis has been brought up and that was a reasonable choice based on his versatility. It does make us a little short in the outfield though.

 

Chavis can play 1B or 2B, instead of Marwin, thereby freeing him up to play more OF.

 

Maybe JD sees some time in the OF over the next 10 days.

[jad]

Can't remember much about it, but wasn't Chavis in the OF for a few games last year? Were the results so bad they won't try it again? (Or am I mis-remembering everything.)

[moonslav59]

Can't remember much about it, but wasn't Chavis in the OF for a few games last year? Were the results so bad they won't try it again? (Or am I mis-remembering everything.)

 

He did play some LF, but not an inning in ST'ing, so they must not have liked what they saw.

[Maxbialystock]

Interesting. However, I would argue that Valdez on the bench is more valuable to the Sox than Dalbec when he is in the lineup. His WAR is -1.1 and he actually makes the Sox worse when he comes to bat or plays 1B. His lousy hitting makes him a rally-killer, and his lousy defense keeps opposing teams rallies alive.

 

Dalbec just redeemed his entire season to date with a much needed 3 run dinger in Orioles Park at Camden Yards.

[moonslav59]

Patience is a virtue.

[Maxbialystock]

Chavis can play 1B or 2B, instead of Marwin, thereby freeing him up to play more OF.

 

Maybe JD sees some time in the OF over the next 10 days.

 

JD likes playing in the outfield and has a good arm, but limited range. Before the DH, there were lots of guys like him.

[Maxbialystock]

Patience is a virtue.

 

Not so much at my age.

[moonslav59]

Not so much at my age.

 

I find I have more patience now than earlier in my life, or at least I don't get as jacked up over long lines and slow drivers in front of me.

[jad]

I find I have more patience now than earlier in my life, or at least I don't get as jacked up over long lines and slow drivers in front of me.

 

Me neither. OF course, that's because I'm now the slow driver in front ofyou.

[notin]

I find I have more patience now than earlier in my life, or at least I don't get as jacked up over long lines and slow drivers in front of me.

 

But those crazy velocity raptors behind you leaning on the horn are another matter!!!

[moonslav59]

But those crazy velocity raptors behind you leaning on the horn are another matter!!!

 

That never happens.

[moonslav59]

Me neither. OF course, that's because I'm now the slow driver in front ofyou.

 

That was you!

[jad]

That was you!

 

Yeah! Slow down!!!

[moonslav59]

Yeah! Slow down!!!

 

Get in the right lane!

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS+ Leaders:

 

203 JD

167 Bogey

158 Devrs

137 Verdugo

 

101 Kike

100 Arroyo

97 Vaz

97 Plawecki

 

80 Marwin

68 Renfroe

61 Dalbec

 

31 Cordero

 

 

ERA+

282 Whitlock

207 Barnes

 

140 DHern

135 Pivetta

125 Andriese

121 Valdez

117 Sawamura

114 ERod

 

106 Ottavino

102 Houck

99 Perez

99 Richards

94 Eovaldi

 

62 Taylor

57 Brice

Edited May 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

A while ago, I posted about the Quality Start stat, and how I felt it was flawed. I suggested some sort of modified stat like this:

 

Good start:

3+ IP 0 Earned runs

4+ IP 1 or less runs

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6+ IP 3 or less runs

8+ IP 4 or less runs

 

How many good starts have each of our starter had so far?

Richards 4 out of 6 (1 QS)

ERod 4 out of 6 (2 QS)

Eovaldi 4 out of 7 (2 QS)

Pivetta 3 out of 6 (1 QS)

Perez 3 out of 6 (0 QS)

Houck 1 out of 2 (0 QS)

 

No starter has had more bad starts than good ones! The team has had 19 out of 33 starts I call "Good." That's 58% from a Saleless rotation!

 

Note: none of these pitchers gained a "good start" designation from the first 2 categories (3 or 4+ IP). None gained one with 8 IP and 4+ runs. All were either 5+ IP and 2 ERs or less or 6 IP and 3 or less ERs.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

A while ago, I posted about the Quality Start stat, and how I felt it was flawed. I suggested some sort of modified stat like this:

 

Good start:

3+ IP 0 Earned runs

4+ IP 1 or less runs

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6+ IP 3 or less runs

8+ IP 4 or less runs

 

I like this, although I would say that only two of the changes should be slam-dunks - the 5/2 and the 8/4.

 

With the 3 and 4 inning quality starts, the question arises whether this was actually what the team needed. 3 innings leaves 6 to cover for the pen. But in some cases, obviously, like with a spot starter, 3 scoreless innings might be getting the job done.

[notin]

I like this, although I would say that only two of the changes should be slam-dunks - the 5/2 and the 8/4.

 

With the 3 and 4 inning quality starts, the question arises whether this was actually what the team needed. 3 innings leaves 6 to cover for the pen. But in some cases, obviously, like with a spot starter, 3 scoreless innings might be getting the job done.

 

I agree that it really depends on who and why is starting 3 IP 0 ER from, say, Andriese is considered a good thing. While it is techncially the same as 3 IP 0 ER from ERod, I don't think we would look at it that way.

 

I thought at one point way back when, a Quality Start was 7 IP 3 ER or less, but I can'r find any evidence of that. 6 IP 3 ER seems like a borderline start and no one gets excited over a 4.50 ERA...

[Bellhorn04]

I agree that it really depends on who and why is starting 3 IP 0 ER from, say, Andriese is considered a good thing. While it is techncially the same as 3 IP 0 ER from ERod, I don't think we would look at it that way.

 

I thought at one point way back when, a Quality Start was 7 IP 3 ER or less, but I can'r find any evidence of that. 6 IP 3 ER seems like a borderline start and no one gets excited over a 4.50 ERA...

 

I can accept 6/3 as a Quality Start because a) it's the baseline; and the 6 innings part is clearly good.

[Nick]

A while ago, I posted about the Quality Start stat, and how I felt it was flawed. I suggested some sort of modified stat like this:

 

Good start:

3+ IP 0 Earned runs

4+ IP 1 or less runs

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6+ IP 3 or less runs

8+ IP 4 or less runs

 

How many good starts have each of our starter had so far?

Richards 4 out of 6 (1 QS)

ERod 4 out of 6 (2 QS)

Eovaldi 4 out of 7 (2 QS)

Pivetta 3 out of 6 (1 QS)

Perez 3 out of 6 (0 QS)

Houck 1 out of 2 (0 QS)

 

No starter has had more bad starts than good ones! The team has had 19 out of 33 starts I call "Good." That's 58% from a Saleless rotation!

 

Note: none of these pitchers gained a "good start" designation from the first 2 categories (3 or 4+ IP). None gained one with 8 IP and 4+ runs. All were either 5+ IP and 2 ERs or less or 6 IP and 3 or less ERs.

 

 

 

I like the idea. It would be better if we can measure this in terms of league average. So good starts become say +125GS, with +100GS representing league average. Good work though.

[Nick]

Before Devers came on board it was all about Moncada.

 

Biggest rift on this board was about bringing up Moncada and if it would 'damage' him if things went south. Many thought he wasn't ready.

 

I was in the small camp, let's bring him up and see what he can do. Ultimately watching Moncada convinced the brass that he can be traded, Sox had someone better. That turned out to be Devers.

 

My life experience has taught me that successful people want to know the bad news, sooner the better.

 

That's been my stand on Whitlock. I've been sick and was out of loop for 3 days. I saw that the middle game versus Detroit was lost by Whitlock, giving up a 3 run homer. I've had 'fights' with posters here thinking that he needed to be valued little more than he has have been. One poster suggested I would go off on Whitlock as he had a blow up. Contrary to what he may assume, I'm not at all upset over it.

 

I'm glad Whitlock was given chance to perform on a bigger stage. Last night I watched him come back and pitched couple of innings. He's on track to being a very good pitcher for us.

 

I was also glad to see Dalbec finally contribute to a winning cause. Whitlock, Dalbec and Pivetta are three players worth keeping an eye on. They may become part of core group for us. I'm rooting for them.

 

I see that we're in top 3 or 5 having the worst production from our #6-#9 hitters. For your stat geeks, I wonder where we would rank if we look at #6-#1 hitter. I'm not sure how to get that information.

Edited May 8, 2021 by Nick

[Larry Cook]

Our pitchers are succeeding this season on mostly smoke and mirrors. At some point they are going to hit the wall and we will need reinforcements.

 

I see three starter candidates:

 

Sale

Houck

Whitlock (converted for a bit)

 

For the bullpen:

 

Bastardo

Feldman

 

Will hang’em Chaim try to trade for bullpen help?

[moonslav59]

Our pitchers are succeeding this season on mostly smoke and mirrors. At some point they are going to hit the wall and we will need reinforcements.

 

I see three starter candidates:

 

Sale

Houck

Whitlock (converted for a bit)

 

For the bullpen:

 

Bastardo

Feldman

 

Will hang’em Chaim try to trade for bullpen help?

 

I'd add Seabold to the starter list, but he's hurt, now.

 

I would not put Feltman second to Bazardo. We have Brasier coming back, at some point. I'm not sure if he can ever pitch as well as he did a couple years back, but he's got more promise than anyone else, IMO.

 

Others I'd put ahead of Feltman, who is in AA, right now besides Brasier & Bazardo (In no particular order):

 

Brewer

Weber

Walden

Schreiber

Simpson

Ort

Brennan

Workman

McCarthy

Maybe Blair, Hall, Poyner

[oldtimer]

A while ago, I posted about the Quality Start stat, and how I felt it was flawed. I suggested some sort of modified stat like this:

 

Good start:

3+ IP 0 Earned runs

4+ IP 1 or less runs

5+ IP 2 or less runs

6+ IP 3 or less runs

8+ IP 4 or less runs

 

How many good starts have each of our starter had so far?

Richards 4 out of 6 (1 QS)

ERod 4 out of 6 (2 QS)

Eovaldi 4 out of 7 (2 QS)

Pivetta 3 out of 6 (1 QS)

Perez 3 out of 6 (0 QS)

Houck 1 out of 2 (0 QS)

 

No starter has had more bad starts than good ones! The team has had 19 out of 33 starts I call "Good." That's 58% from a Saleless rotation!

 

Note: none of these pitchers gained a "good start" designation from the first 2 categories (3 or 4+ IP). None gained one with 8 IP and 4+ runs. All were either 5+ IP and 2 ERs or less or 6 IP and 3 or less ERs.

 

 

 

I would factor in the quality of the opponents offense. Over a season, that would average out but so far the Sox have only played a few teams with strong offenses. I would rate the White Sox and Blue Jays as strong. Our Sox are about to take on 3 tough teams, so that should be interesting. GS numbers also would have a bias for those who play in places like Coors field, where the ball carries so well. So maybe a good start should have different numbers depending on the park.

[moonslav59]

I would factor in the quality of the opponents offense. Over a season, that would average out but so far the Sox have only played a few teams with strong offenses. I would rate the White Sox and Blue Jays as strong. Our Sox are about to take on 3 tough teams, so that should be interesting. GS numbers also would have a bias for those who play in places like Coors field, where the ball carries so well. So maybe a good start should have different numbers depending on the park.

 

That would make it more complicated but also more accurate. At the start of the year, how do you know who the best offensive teams are?

[Bellhorn04]

Our pitchers are succeeding this season on mostly smoke and mirrors. At some point they are going to hit the wall and we will need reinforcements.

 

I see three starter candidates:

 

Sale

Houck

Whitlock (converted for a bit)

 

For the bullpen:

 

Bastardo

Feldman

 

Will hang’em Chaim try to trade for bullpen help?

 

What smoke and mirrors?

[notin]

What smoke and mirrors?

 

If anything, the Sox pitchers have been hampered by the inadequate defense...

[Nick]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/grading-chaim-blooms-biggest-red-sox-trades-shows-pattern-hes-winning

 

Here's a very good read on Bloom's trades thus far......

 

Betts A

Pivetta A+

Beni C- I don't think you'll fully know until the players to be named later are named

Ottavino C It was a cash transaction to purchase Frank German. Anything we get out of Ottavino is plus.

Moreland C

 

Throw in Rule 5 pick, Bloom is doing exactly what he was hired to do.

Edited May 9, 2021 by Nick

[dannycater]

I haven't been on here much..but I think Xander is AL MVP...his defense is flat out Gold Glove and his hitting is All-Star and he hits to all fields, and he hits for power, and he is a game-changer...Xander is just fantastic. JD has returned to become a monster hitter (got the video back). Vasquez is just a terrific hitter to all fields again and Verdugo is another guy who simply comes out every game with fire in his eyes and tries to win. This is a winning bunch. Pitchers have been mostly great. Richards has turned his season around and Barnes has been sick great in pen. Love the makeup of team and Cora back as well. Go Sox!

[moonslav59]

I haven't been on here much..but I think Xander is AL MVP...his defense is flat out Gold Glove and his hitting is All-Star and he hits to all fields, and he hits for power, and he is a game-changer...Xander is just fantastic. JD has returned to become a monster hitter (got the video back). Vasquez is just a terrific hitter to all fields again and Verdugo is another guy who simply comes out every game with fire in his eyes and tries to win. This is a winning bunch. Pitchers have been mostly great. Richards has turned his season around and Barnes has been sick great in pen. Love the makeup of team and Cora back as well. Go Sox!

 

Bogey is so far from GG, it isn't funny.