A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

Message board forums seem to attract a different breed of fan. More analytical and deep thinking. The boys down at Clancy's never talk about UZR , Babip or peripherals. But they are good fans nevertheless.

 

No one said they weren't. I just don't expect many of them to show up here...

[notin]

I would buy the low HR not being a fluke if his GB rate spiked. But the only thing that has happened is the FB's he has been allowing just aren't leaving the park. That isnt something that is sustainable

 

He's throwing his curveball a lot less and his slider a lot more. If he had a tendency to hang the occasional curve ball, it could significantly impact his HR rate.

 

In fact, if you look at his HR/FB rates year to year, they pretty much mirror his curveball rates...

[moonslav59]

I would buy the low HR not being a fluke if his GB rate spiked. But the only thing that has happened is the FB's he has been allowing just aren't leaving the park. That isnt something that is sustainable

 

I'm not saying you are wrong, but he might be just getting lucky. His BAbip is .278, which is significantly less than his career .321 mark, so it does look like some luck is involved, but his hard hit % has dropped from 39.8% to 44.7% to 31.5%, this year.

 

I'm not seeing a bunch of warning track shots or blister line-out for outs.

 

I certainly doubt he leads our rotation in ERA, when the season is over, but it doesn't mean he has to return to 5.38 either.

[mvp 78]

I would buy the low HR not being a fluke if his GB rate spiked. But the only thing that has happened is the FB's he has been allowing just aren't leaving the park. That isnt something that is sustainable

 

It’s sustainable until they mess with the baseballs again.

[moonslav59]

It’s sustainable until they mess with the baseballs again.

 

This could be it.

 

It makes sense some pitchers would gain by the change more than others.

 

Can or would they ever change baseballs in the middle of a season, or can Pivetta win the Cy Young?

[Larry Cook]

I would buy the low HR not being a fluke if his GB rate spiked. But the only thing that has happened is the FB's he has been allowing just aren't leaving the park. That isnt something that is sustainable

 

When batters hit balls repeatedly to where the defenders are, good things tend to happen.

 

But you are correct, it is not sustainable. However if he gets his walk rate under control and his tater rate stays low, his impressive run will continue!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The dead ball -- which is supposed to provide more action -- is actually being blamed for the MLB's worst offense since 1968. The theory is, once launch anglers realize they're just flying out too much (instead of watching pop-ups sail over fences), batters will have to adjust swings for more line drives... and hopefully, choke up with two strikes, put more balls in play and more pressure on defenses.

 

In the meantime, baseball is just waiting for ballplayers to adjust to the baseballs. The hope is that eventually, fans will see more guys sprinting from base to base, instead of just trotting around them -- or trudging back to the dugout after whiffing. Of course, longtime fans are still waiting for more pros to bunt and go oppo to beat the obnoxious shifts...

[moonslav59]

The dead ball -- which is supposed to provide more action -- is actually being blamed for the MLB's worst offense since 1968. The theory is, once launch anglers realize they're just flying out too much (instead of watching pop-ups sail over fences), batters will have to adjust swings for more line drives... and hopefully, choke up with two strikes, put more balls in play and more pressure on defenses.

 

In the meantime, baseball is just waiting for ballplayers to adjust to the baseballs. The hope is that eventually, fans will see more guys sprinting from base to base, instead of just trotting around them -- or trudging back to the dugout after whiffing. Of course, longtime fans are still waiting for more pros to bunt and go oppo to beat the obnoxious shifts...

 

Good luck with that.

 

I equate this with the NBA turning into a 3 point contest.

[Bellhorn04]

The dead ball -- which is supposed to provide more action -- is actually being blamed for the MLB's worst offense since 1968. The theory is, once launch anglers realize they're just flying out too much (instead of watching pop-ups sail over fences), batters will have to adjust swings for more line drives... and hopefully, choke up with two strikes, put more balls in play and more pressure on defenses.

 

If you look at runs scored as the measure of offense, it's not the worst since 1968, in fact there have been many years that runs per game were lower than the current 2021 average of 4.36.

 

What we're really talking about is the brand of offense we're seeing.

[moonslav59]

If you look at runs scored as the measure of offense, it's not the worst since 1968, in fact there have been many years that runs per game were lower than the current 2021 average of 4.36.

 

What we're really talking about is the brand of offense we're seeing.

 

The swinging for the almighty HR has become the firing up the 3 point basket attempts of MLB.

[Bellhorn04]

I really think the shifts are what created the mess. And as much as we like to talk about beating the shift by going oppo a lot more, very few hitters are capable of doing it. Verdugo can, LeMahieu can. Not many.

 

We used to love it when Big Papi dropped a bunt on the shift. But how many times did he actually do it? You can count them on one hand, I think. His response was generally the same as most guys with power - hit it over the shift or over the fence.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I really think the shifts are what created the mess. And as much as we like to talk about beating the shift by going oppo a lot more, very few hitters are capable of doing it. Verdugo can, LeMahieu can. Not many.

 

We used to love it when Big Papi dropped a bunt on the shift. But how many times did he actually do it? You can count them on one hand, I think. His response was generally the same as most guys with power - hit it over the shift or over the fence.

 

For me, the worst thing is watching hard one-hoppers up the middle constantly get turned into outs. Those were hits every time at every level for over 100 years.

 

I was a middle shooter for decades, and when second basemen shaded the bag, I learned how to hit to the right side. Of course, I never had to face nightly 100 mph fastballs, with offspeed breaking stuff in the low-90s... I can't see any way how MLB batters just don't always guess.

[mvp 78]

I really think the shifts are what created the mess. And as much as we like to talk about beating the shift by going oppo a lot more, very few hitters are capable of doing it. Verdugo can, LeMahieu can. Not many.

 

We used to love it when Big Papi dropped a bunt on the shift. But how many times did he actually do it? You can count them on one hand, I think. His response was generally the same as most guys with power - hit it over the shift or over the fence.

 

He wasn't a "Punch and Judy hitter." That was his reasoning for not bunting more.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, if these guys learned to bunt down the line, they'd have to stop the shift, and they could resume hitting the way they want, fast enough.

 

Big "If;" I know.

[Bellhorn04]

The thing is, if these guys learned to bunt down the line, they'd have to stop the shift, and they could resume hitting the way they want, fast enough.

 

Big "If;" I know.

 

The prevailing wisdom I've heard seems to be that defenses would actually love it if guys like Big Papi tried to bunt a lot more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing is, if these guys learned to bunt down the line, they'd have to stop the shift, and they could resume hitting the way they want, fast enough.

 

Big "If;" I know.

 

Those with enough bat control and foot speed can even bunt for doubles.

[moonslav59]

The prevailing wisdom I've heard seems to be that defenses would actually love it if guys like Big Papi tried to bunt a lot more.

 

If they were good at it, the defense would soon learn to dislike it. If you were really good at it, you could get some doubles with a hard bunt down the line.

 

If they don't want to intentionally walk a guy like Big Papi, then a bunt single is just as bad- or worse.

 

Now, if the bunt attempt leads to a bunch of out or strikes, then the advantage is gone.

[notin]

Those with enough bat control and foot speed can even bunt for doubles.

 

We’ve all seen Robinson Cano do that, and he is hardly the fleetest of foot...

[moonslav59]

Sox Splits to date:

 

vs RHPs

1.177 JD

1.025 Bogey

.972 Devers

.895 Verdugo

.776 Vaz

.731 Kike

.683 Plawecki

.668 Arroyo (career is better v RHPs)

.619 Marwin

.584 Renfroe (Should only start v LHPs)

.440 Cordero (Not holding up his end of the projected Renfroe platoon)

.413 Dalbec (maybe need a Chavis or Marwin/Dalbec platoon at 1B)

 

vs LHPs

.902 Bogey

.898 Dalbec

.888 Devers

.833 JD

.773 Arroyo

.772 Renfroe

.746 Marwin

.706 Kike

.702 Verdugo

.603 Vaz

.564 Plawecki

.473 Cordero

 

Team:

.779 v RHP

.775 v LHP

 

.786 Home

.768 Away

 

Late & Close .707

1.378 Arroyo

1.068 Renfroe

1.025 JD

.866 Verdugo

.689 Bogey & Marwin

.678 Vaz

.636 Devers

.513 Kike

.333 Cordero

.330 Dalbec

.282 Plawecki

Edited May 10, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Here is a very surprising stat comp:

 

OPS Against when RISP:

 

.448 Ottavino

 

.833 Barnes

 

(Note: Barnes hardly ever lets players get in scoring position and has just 12 PAs against, this year. Ottavino has 30 PAs against with RISP.)

 

.287 Sawamura

.448 Ottavino

.484 ERod

.501 Andriese

.625 Pivetta

.651 Perez

.700 Houck

.705 Whitlock

.706 Richards

.800 Valdez

.828 Eovaldi

.928 Taylor

.995 D Hern

1.390 Brice

 

Men on Base

.504 Ottavino

.600 Barnes

.623 Whitlock

.635 Valdez

[Bellhorn04]

If they were good at it, the defense would soon learn to dislike it. If you were really good at it, you could get some doubles with a hard bunt down the line.

 

If they don't want to intentionally walk a guy like Big Papi, then a bunt single is just as bad- or worse.

 

Now, if the bunt attempt leads to a bunch of out or strikes, then the advantage is gone.

 

And everybody knows all this. It's a simple concept.

[moonslav59]

And everybody knows all this. It's a simple concept.

 

Agreed. The problem is hardly anybody has learned how to bunt during their entire careers.

 

It's not something you can teach in a day, week or month. Is any team even trying to teach their players, especially those who have big shifts against them, how to bunt?

 

(I'm guessing, no.)

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rafael-devers-still-has-another-gear/

 

Devers is running an elite line, certainly, but he also has the fourth-best expected wOBA in baseball, behind only Harper, Soto, and Ronald Acuña Jr. We have known for a few years now that Devers is a really good player — his 133 wRC+, 5.9 WAR 2019 campaign was the 13th-most valuable season in baseball that year — but to see him in a class with Harper, Soto, and Acuña gives me a whole different perception of his offensive prowess. By most of the rate stats, Devers is on pace for a career year, but by the end of 2021, there’s a pretty good chance his slash line will be even better than it is now. And that’s really exciting if you’re a Red Sox fan.

 

Interesting article on how Devers is actually outperforming his stats.

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rafael-devers-still-has-another-gear/

 

Devers is running an elite line, certainly, but he also has the fourth-best expected wOBA in baseball, behind only Harper, Soto, and Ronald Acuña Jr. We have known for a few years now that Devers is a really good player — his 133 wRC+, 5.9 WAR 2019 campaign was the 13th-most valuable season in baseball that year — but to see him in a class with Harper, Soto, and Acuña gives me a whole different perception of his offensive prowess. By most of the rate stats, Devers is on pace for a career year, but by the end of 2021, there’s a pretty good chance his slash line will be even better than it is now. And that’s really exciting if you’re a Red Sox fan.

 

Interesting article on how Devers is actually outperforming his stats.

 

I've been saying this kid is due for a monster year pretty soon. (2021?)

 

He's a pure hitter who can hit anyone at anytime.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting article on how Devers is actually outperforming his stats.

 

I keep telling my boss that's what I'm doing...

[moonslav59]

Best records in MLB by Winning %:

 

.629 Boston

.600 STL 1.0 GB

.594 CWS 1.5

.588 SFG 1.5

.583 OAK 1.5

.563 CLE 2.5

.552 NYM 3.0

.543 MIL 3.0

.543 SDP 3.0

.529 HOU 3.5

.529 NYY 3.5

.528 TBR 3.5

4 teams 4.0 back (.514-.515)

3 teams 4.5 back (.500)

 

19 of 30 teams are at .500 or better. (Two teams are just 1 win from being at .500)

 

Last year, there were 14 teams above .500 (actually above .483). There were 5 teams over .600 and 8 over .583. Now, there are 2 and 5, respectively.

 

21 teams are above .483, this year- last year only 14.

 

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I found this on Danny Santana, but no mention was made of his new opt out date...

 

Danny Santana ready to play in Red Sox Minors games

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Danny Santana, a veteran player who belted 28 homers for the Rangers two years ago, will take a step closer to joining the Red Sox when he starts playing in Minor League games on Tuesday for High-A Greenville. The Sox signed Santana in March to a Minor League deal that

[moonslav59]

New MLB Power Rankings. We are now the top dog.

 

1. Boston (2 last week)

2. SFG (8)

3. CWS (4)

4. SDP (3)

5. Oak (11)

6. STL (15)

7. LAD (1)

8. NYY (7)

9. Tor (13)

10. Hou (5)

 

Biggest jumps:

STL 15>6

CLE 22>15

SFG 8>2

Oak 11>5

 

Biggest drops:

KC 9>18

AZ 17>24

Mil 6>14

LAD 1>7

MN 16>22

ATL 10>16

Hou 5>10

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

New MLB Power Rankings. We are now the top dog.

 

1. Boston (2 last week)

2. SFG (8)

3. CWS (4)

4. SDP (3)

5. Oak (11)

6. STL (15)

7. LAD (1)

8. NYY (7)

9. Tor (13)

10. Hou (5)

 

Biggest jumps:

STL 15>6

CLE 22>15

SFG 8>2

Oak 11>5

 

Biggest drops:

KC 9>18

AZ 17>24

Mil 6>14

LAD 1>7

MN 16>22

ATL 10>16

Hou 5>10

 

 

 

 

I have never understood the value of "power rankings" when we have the won-lost percentages and the standings. I'm serious. At the end of the season and two teams are tied for spot in the playoffs, MLB doesn't go to power rankings for the tiebreaker. They go by W-L records between the teams, within their division or league, etc.

 

Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing, and power rankings are silly.

[moonslav59]

I have never understood the value of "power rankings" when we have the won-lost percentages and the standings. I'm serious. At the end of the season and two teams are tied for spot in the playoffs, MLB doesn't go to power rankings for the tiebreaker. They go by W-L records between the teams, within their division or league, etc.

 

Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing, and power rankings are silly.

 

Teams have tougher/easier schedules than others.

Teams might have a certain winning percentage, but a top player just went out for the season.

 

I can understand why someone wants to rank teams by how good they think they are.

 

As much as I love what the Sox are doing and am getting more and more optimistic with each win, I do not think we have been the best team in the league. We may not be right now, either.