A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

They sure are, so I hope I don't have to remind you that the A's, who took 2 of 3 from the Sox, are 24-17 and have a run differential of -9. Indeed, in the 3 game Sox series, the A's scored 8 runs and gave up 11.

 

I posted something in one of the game threads that the As had no business being in first place in their division, much less being 7 games over .500, with that run differential. Losing series like the series against the As is going to happen over the course of the season. We have to keep the bigger and overall picture in mind.

[Bellhorn04]

Completely agree. I remember early in Devers career when he thrived near the bottom but not when he was moved up in the lineup.

 

When Ellsbury was struggling at leadoff Tito would move him to the 9 spot and he'd catch fire.

 

It does seem to take some pressure off the hitter.

[Maxbialystock]

Why are you blaming their suckiness on fatigue?

 

Our starters are 5th in IP and we’ve had 9 RPers all season. The only guy on pace for too many innings is Barnes, not one of the sucky six.

 

Show me one example where we brought in a sucky six pitcher on too short rest.

 

Everyone of the sucky six are on pace for 60 IP or less, except Andriese, who is a long man, and he’s headed for 65, which is low for a long man.

 

There is some advantage to allowing Cora one more choice in trying to determine who matches up best with the next batter(s), but no matter who he chooses, when they end up sucking, he gets blamed for bringing in someone who has sucked recently, despite the fact that all six have sucked recently.

 

When the Sox started losing while the bullpen, which early on had been solid, was giving up runs, someone said they were being overworked. I bow to your stats because the numbers argue that so far no one is overworked.

 

About Brice. His ERA in 8 appearances and 7.2 innings in April was 3.52. In 4 appearances and 4 innings in May his ERA is 13.50 when he gave up 4 runs in the win over the Tigers, 2 in the win over the Orioles, and 0 runs in the lost to Oakland and the win over the Angels.

 

I recite those stats because right now everyone is saying to dump Brice on the dung heap of history but to have faith in Andriese. But to these old eyes Andriese and Brice are two peas in a pod: good enough in April, pretty awful in May.

[Maxbialystock]

I posted something in one of the game threads that the As had no business being in first place in their division, much less being 7 games over .500, with that run differential. Losing series like the series against the As is going to happen over the course of the season. We have to keep the bigger and overall picture in mind.

 

I cite the A's only as an example of the quirkiness of baseball and my semi-conviction that the A's know how to win close games despite a so-so offense (17th in MLB in runs scored) and so-so pitching (15th best ERA in MLB).

[Maxbialystock]

When Ellsbury was struggling at leadoff Tito would move him to the 9 spot and he'd catch fire.

 

It does seem to take some pressure off the hitter.

 

Funny thing about the pressure of leading off. I agree it's real and daunting. But you can really only lead off once in a game--in the first inning. Thereafter, almost anyone can lead off the next inning.

[Kimmi]

I cite the A's only as an example of the quirkiness of baseball and my semi-conviction that the A's know how to win close games despite a so-so offense (17th in MLB in runs scored) and so-so pitching (15th best ERA in MLB).

 

I agree about the quirkiness of baseball. I disagree with your semi-conviction that the As know how to win the close games. I have a strong conviction that teams do not know how to win close games, but that winning close games is more or less random. Good teams know how to win blowout games.

[Maxbialystock]

I don't have any regrets about losing Moncada or Kopech, per se. I certainly don't have any regrets about having Sale.

 

Sale still doesn't have a changeup, but I think he is the most professional pitcher I've seen throw for the Red Sox. He has great stuff, good command, and does a great job fielding his position, going to 1b on the grounders to the right, etc. ERod used to be notorious for not covering first on time.

[Bellhorn04]

Funny thing about the pressure of leading off. I agree it's real and daunting. But you can really only lead off once in a game--in the first inning. Thereafter, almost anyone can lead off the next inning.

 

Technically, that's true, but the real pressure on the leadoff hitter is that he's supposed to be the guy who gets on base for the run producers behind him.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree about the quirkiness of baseball. I disagree with your semi-conviction that the As know how to win the close games. I have a strong conviction that teams do not know how to win close games, but that winning close games is more or less random. Good teams know how to win blowout games.

 

Statistically, I think your strong conviction is on firm ground. There's a well known college basketball statistician named Ken Pomeroy, and he includes a stat called "luck" to explain why a team does or does not win close games that season.

[Maxbialystock]

Technically, that's true, but the real pressure on the leadoff hitter is that he's supposed to be the guy who gets on base for the run producers behind him.

 

So they say. And very few leadoff hitters say they don't feel that pressure.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it was brilliant of the team to have Dalbec in the 9 spot from the get-go. It's like they anticipated he was going to have some early struggles and this gave him the best chance of finding his stroke with the minimal amount of heat on him.

[oldtimer]

Those advocating spending a lot of money to bring in a top lineup should consider what is happening with the Angels. They have Trout, Othani and Rendon and had Puholz until recently and the results have not been great for them. Putting so much into starts leaves them with budget pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

I feel a little badly for Trout. He should be on the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

When the Sox started losing while the bullpen, which early on had been solid, was giving up runs, someone said they were being overworked. I bow to your stats because the numbers argue that so far no one is overworked.

 

About Brice. His ERA in 8 appearances and 7.2 innings in April was 3.52. In 4 appearances and 4 innings in May his ERA is 13.50 when he gave up 4 runs in the win over the Tigers, 2 in the win over the Orioles, and 0 runs in the lost to Oakland and the win over the Angels.

 

I recite those stats because right now everyone is saying to dump Brice on the dung heap of history but to have faith in Andriese. But to these old eyes Andriese and Brice are two peas in a pod: good enough in April, pretty awful in May.

 

ERA is a ver bad stat for RP’ers.

 

Plus, my point is not about who is the worst of the sucky six. It’s about them all being pretty much interchangeable and not even coming close to being overworked.

 

Only Barnes is on pace for being overworked by about 8 innings.

[dgalehouse]

I agree about the quirkiness of baseball. I disagree with your semi-conviction that the As know how to win the close games. I have a strong conviction that teams do not know how to win close games, but that winning close games is more or less random. Good teams know how to win blowout games.

 

 

Baseball can indeed be quirky , but it is a bastion of rationality when compared to the quirkiness of some fans/posters .

[Kimmi]

Sale still doesn't have a changeup, but I think he is the most professional pitcher I've seen throw for the Red Sox. He has great stuff, good command, and does a great job fielding his position, going to 1b on the grounders to the right, etc. ERod used to be notorious for not covering first on time.

 

He is a true professional and he is very competitive. No one is harder on Sale than he is on himself.

 

Hopefully, we'll see him back sometime around the trade deadline.

[Kimmi]

Statistically, I think your strong conviction is on firm ground. There's a well known college basketball statistician named Ken Pomeroy, and he includes a stat called "luck" to explain why a team does or does not win close games that season.

 

Today's game is a fine example of luck or randomness is baseball. Barnes himself said that he thought when Trout hit that weak blooper that the game was over.

[Kimmi]

Baseball can indeed be quirky , but it is a bastion of rationality when compared to the quirkiness of some fans/posters .

 

Die hard fans are not the most rational group of people around. You would not want to watch a baseball game with me when we're losing. LOL I let myself cool down before I come here and post anything.

[Larry Cook]

Die hard fans are not the most rational group of people around. You would not want to watch a baseball game with me when we're losing. LOL I let myself cool down before I come here and post anything.

 

Fans of teams in the al East are all different:

 

Sox fans are passionate to the very edge! Some maybe over the edge!

 

Yankees fans are generally undereducated band wagoners! They are only there for the good times.

 

Toronto fans are only fans after hockey season ends for the leafs, (usually late may)

 

Tampa has nearly no real fans.

 

Baltimore fans are almost all over 80 years old and the population of then is drastically shrinking daily!

[dgalehouse]

Die hard fans are not the most rational group of people around. You would not want to watch a baseball game with me when we're losing. LOL I let myself cool down before I come here and post anything.

 

I am as diehard as anyone . But some do get a little carried away. After Barnes gave up a bloop single to Trout and a Pesky pole shot to Ohtani ( two pretty fair hitters , by the way ) , one guy called it " a massive choke job. "

[Bellhorn04]

I am as diehard as anyone . But some do get a little carried away. After Barnes gave up a bloop single to Trout and a Pesky pole shot to Ohtani ( two pretty fair hitters , by the way ) , one guy called it " a massive choke job. "

 

That particular poster never adds much to the game threads.

[moonslav59]

We need to start thinking about keeping Barnes to just one inning- not because of today, but because we shouldn’t let him reach 80 IP, this year.

[Larry Cook]

We need to start thinking about keeping Barnes to just one inning- not because of today, but because we shouldn’t let him reach 80 IP, this year.

 

Agreed! But isn’t Barnes a free agent at the end of the year?

[moonslav59]

Agreed! But isn’t Barnes a free agent at the end of the year?

 

Yes, but I don’t think that is why he is on pace for 88+.

 

We probably shouldn’t push our luck on extending our starting pitchers’ IP.

 

We have to hope some steps up.

[Bellhorn04]

We need to start thinking about keeping Barnes to just one inning- not because of today, but because we shouldn’t let him reach 80 IP, this year.

 

It's not all about the innings, though. Barnes has pitched 4 more innings than Ottavino, but faced 4 fewer batters.

[moonslav59]

What’s gonna happen to our pen, if some of our starters stop giving us 5-6 innings?

 

I think we’ve only had 2-3 starts all year where our starter failed give us close to 5 or 6 IP.

 

I doubt anyone is in trade mode, now, so what do we have for in house solutions?.

[moonslav59]

It's not all about the innings, though. Barnes has pitched 4 more innings than Ottavino, but faced 4 fewer batters.

 

True, and is not on pace to a career high in pitches thrown.

 

His 4.03 pitches per PA is his lowest in 6 years, and he’s not on pace for a career PA against number, either.i

 

He may end up having a career high in IP but not batters faced or pitches thrown.

Edited May 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

What’s gonna happen to our pen, if some of our starters stop giving us 5-6 innings?

 

I think we’ve only had 2-3 starts all year where our starter failed give us close to 5 or 6 IP.

 

I doubt anyone is in trade mode, now, so what do we have for in house solutions?.

 

It may not be what you want to hear, but Valdez and Taylor are moving up Cora's confidence ladder, as we saw yesterday.

[moonslav59]

It may not be what you want to hear, but Valdez and Taylor are moving up Cora's confidence ladder, as we saw yesterday.

 

I don’t care if Brice wins the top set up role!

 

We need someone, quick.

 

With me, I’m not big on thinking a player’s past few games is an indicator of what is to come.

 

That doesn’t mean I don’t think Valdez or Taylor can do well. Both have past seasons of success.

 

I know I’ve been calling most of our pen “sucky”, lately, but many have histories of pitching well for long stretches, so I do think maybe 2-3 end up with overall good seasons this year, but maybe not quite good enough to fill the #2 slot that Ottavino seems to not do well enough to feel safe.

 

I liked Valdez, last year, and Taylor was pretty good a couple years back. Maybe they step it up. Maybe Sawamura or Andriese do. Maybe DHern suddenly finds control. Maybe Whitlock stops being stretched out. Brazier, someday? Houck?

 

Maybe Eovaldi ends up in the pen.

 

Lots of maybes but too few probables.

[Bellhorn04]

I liked Valdez, last year, and Taylor was pretty good a couple years back. Maybe they step it up. Maybe Sawamura or Andriese do. Maybe DHern suddenly finds control. Maybe Whitlock stops being stretched out. Brazier, someday? Houck?

 

Workman may be in the mix as well.