A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Larry Cook]

Is it time to move Renfroe and Dalbec up in the line-up?

 

I do not think so. As the weather gets warmer, it will be interesting to see if consistently put more wood on pitches!

[moonslav59]

I do not think so. As the weather gets warmer, it will be interesting to see if consistently put more wood on pitches!

 

I can see them jumping ahead of Vaz, and I’m not sure who leads off when kike returns.

[iortiz]

Realistic view? We are one of the best teams in baseball —today. What about that?

 

Deal with that tomorrow boy.

[oldtimer]

Is it time to move Renfroe and Dalbec up in the line-up?

 

I don't expect either to have a high on base %. When the bottom can supply a few rbi's it makes the team more balanced. Leave them where they are and keep expectations in bounds..

[Nick]

I don't expect either to have a high on base %. When the bottom can supply a few rbi's it makes the team more balanced. Leave them where they are and keep expectations in bounds..

 

I'm a Dalbec fan. I'm perfectly happy with him batting 9th all year. I would just leave him alone. His struggles have been magnified due to Cordero and before May, Renfroe.

 

Dalbec hit in 2020 so I'm inclined to give him longer leash. We can always platoon him, too. He's hitting lefties just fine.

[moonslav59]

I'm a Dalbec fan. I'm perfectly happy with him batting 9th all year. I would just leave him alone. His struggles have been magnified due to Cordero and before May, Renfroe.

 

Dalbec hit in 2020 so I'm inclined to give him longer leash. We can always platoon him, too. He's hitting lefties just fine.

 

By far, his best career slot is 8th, but his whole life I bet never batted below 6th.

[Maxbialystock]

Here's something interesting.

 

I track the Sox pitching staff ERA and it's position with respect to the 29 other MLB teams. The team ERA has been dropping recently and is now 3.85. But not that long ago 3.85 had the Sox ranked 9th, and now 3.85 has them ranked 15th.

 

Relatedly, of the top 17 MLB teams in ERA, only the Marlins (8th, ERA 3.49) and Nationals (14th, ERA 3.84) have losing records.

 

Meanwhile, in the hitting and especially run scoring department, The Reds, ranked 5th in run scoring, have a losing record; the Rockies, 6th, ditto; the Diamondbacks 7th, ditto; the Braves, 10th, ditto; the Rangers, 11th, ditto; the Angels, 12th, ditto; the Cubs, 14th, ditto; the Twins, tied for 14th, ditto (in fact, at 12 and 24 they are the worst team in MLB).

 

So it sure seems to me that, as much as I like the fact that the Sox are 2d in MLB in scoring runs and 1st in team OPS, that good pitching is more vital than ever.

 

Which gets us back to the argument about the active roster. I say again, more pitching choices are more useful than more position players. Cora actually believes in resting position players by giving them a day off, but this year he seems to want to keep those good bats in the lineup, so in the last two games first Bogie and then Devers were DH while JDM patrolled LF.

[moonslav59]

Here's something interesting.

 

I track the Sox pitching staff ERA and it's position with respect to the 29 other MLB teams. The team ERA has been dropping recently and is now 3.85. But not that long ago 3.85 had the Sox ranked 9th, and now 3.85 has them ranked 15th.

 

Relatedly, of the top 17 MLB teams in ERA, only the Marlins (8th, ERA 3.49) and Nationals (14th, ERA 3.84) have losing records.

 

Meanwhile, in the hitting and especially run scoring department, The Reds, ranked 5th in run scoring, have a losing record; the Rockies, 6th, ditto; the Diamondbacks 7th, ditto; the Braves, 10th, ditto; the Rangers, 11th, ditto; the Angels, 12th, ditto; the Cubs, 14th, ditto; the Twins, tied for 14th, ditto (in fact, at 12 and 24 they are the worst team in MLB).

 

So it sure seems to me that, as much as I like the fact that the Sox are 2d in MLB in scoring runs and 1st in team OPS, that good pitching is more vital than ever.

 

Which gets us back to the argument about the active roster. I say again, more pitching choices are more useful than more position players. Cora actually believes in resting position players by giving them a day off, but this year he seems to want to keep those good bats in the lineup, so in the last two games first Bogie and then Devers were DH while JDM patrolled LF.

 

It doesn’t help to have 7 well rested sucky pitchers to choose from vs 6 semi rested sucky pitchers to choose from in innings 6 and 7 and sometimes 8 when Ottavino or Barnes are not available. We are talking about keeping Brice well rested?

 

We need Brasier and Houck back. If they are both healthy and doing well we may not notice how scary our pen is beyond the top 2..

[notin]

It doesn’t help to have 7 well rested sucky pitchers to choose from vs 6 semi rested sucky pitchers to choose from in innings 6 and 7 and sometimes 8 when Ottavino or Barnes are not available. We are talking about keeping Brice well rested?

 

We need Brasier and Houck back. If they are both healthy and doing well we may not notice how scary our pen is beyond the top 2..

 

Brasier has reportedly stated throwing, but he hbasically missed all of spring training. He's probably a ways off.

 

Houck has a sore flexor muscle. I suppose it depends how severe, but I am pretty sure flexor muscle injuries have cost pitchers entire seasons. At this point, he might be a bonus.

 

Hopefully, the Sox jettison Brice soon but I have my doubts. And the recent emergence of Jeffrey Springs may have bolstered Blooms confidence in his evaluation skills, which gives Brice a longer leash. (Do not go reading too deep in that comment; it involves a ridiculous amount of conjecture on my part. Like if conjecture was an Olympic event, I'd be on Team USA and my picture would be on a Wheaties Box after that one.)

 

But if the Sox do add a reliever or two, I would imagine this Brandon Brennan fellow (which sounds like such a fake name, by the way) is probably pretty high on the depth chart. Should we get to know him now?

 

Taylor seems to have turned it around late, which means either 1) my complaints about him were premature, or 2) he reads my posts and decided to show me up. I'm leaning towards the latter, because it just makes more sense. So I wonder how long of a leash Darwinzon has right now. Dude needs to learn where home plate is...

[moonslav59]

Blaming Cora for choosing a s***** RPer from a group of 7 of them is just plain wrong. Although I’d argue Blooms hands were tied it makes more sense blaming him than Cora for the choices.

 

Yes, someone can argue this or that guy would have been a better choice, and that’s always easy to do in hindsight, but look at the choices Cora has with their recent samples of work:

 

Andriese: has let up a run in 4 of his last 5 outings, including 3 runs twice. He had gone 6 of 7 giving good performances beforehand.

 

Sawamura: run allowed in 3 of last 5, including 3 HRs.

 

DHern: 3 hits and 3 BBS in his last 1.2 IP over 3 games.

 

Valdez: apparently was hurt and not used much for a while. Scoured upon in 2 of his last 4 outings. 3 runs, 5 hits and 3 BBS in his last 4 innings.

 

Brice: scored upon in 2 of his last 3 outings allowing 6 runs, 4 hits and 2 BBS in the last 3 IP.

 

Taylor: has done okay, lately but was the poster boy for demotion not Long ago, and who is to say any of the people above might start doing well like Taylor is now? Taylor has gone 6 straight outings without allowing a run, but he has allowed inherited runners to score, often. He let up 2 hits in his last outing.

 

Whitlock: I trust, but he has done poorly recently. Scored upon in 3 of his last 4 outings. 4 runs and 11 hits- 2 HRs in his last 7 IP.

 

The other 2 trusted RPers are Barnes and Ottavino, and it wasn’t long ago Ottavino was being called a bum and a big Bloom mistake.

 

A separate issue is the need to have 6 bad RPers to choose from instead of 5. It’s not like any of these 6 are even close to being overworked. To me, they are all pretty much interchangeable, so just cut Brice loose and give Cora 5 bad choices for the 6th and 7th innings instead of 6.

[Maxbialystock]

It doesn’t help to have 7 well rested sucky pitchers to choose from vs 6 semi rested sucky pitchers to choose from in innings 6 and 7 and sometimes 8 when Ottavino or Barnes are not available. We are talking about keeping Brice well rested?

 

We need Brasier and Houck back. If they are both healthy and doing well we may not notice how scary our pen is beyond the top 2..

 

I am not in favor of giving sucky pitchers roster spaces, but think the same thing about sucky position players. To be precise, yes, I'd rather have Brice than Cordero on the roster. Brice's WAR is -0.3, but Cordero's is -1.1 so he can do more damage.

[Nick]

I don't understand the strategy of pen usage today. We have our third reliever out today. I'm sure the explanation is 'they need work'. But in few days, we'll hear several guys are unavailable.

 

Isn't it better to have one guy pitch three innings or at least two innings, shut him down for 4 days instead using 3 pitchers and all three are unavailable for 3 games?

 

Pitching gurus, tell me I'm stupid.

 

Why are we throwing Darwinzon? Maybe we'll need him tomorrow. I thought he was one of our better pen guy.

Edited May 15, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I am not in favor of giving sucky pitchers roster spaces, but think the same thing about sucky position players. To be precise, yes, I'd rather have Brice than Cordero on the roster. Brice's WAR is -0.3, but Cordero's is -1.1 so he can do more damage.

 

You keep acting like someone is defending Cordero being on the roster.

 

We’ve already seen a plus from Chavis, and adding Santana makes sense.

 

Defending Brice is not helping your position. Spreading his IP around to the other sucky 5 could do no harm.

[moonslav59]

I don't understand the strategy of pen usage today. We have our third reliever out today. I'm sure the explanation is 'they need work'. But in few days, we'll hear several guys are unavailable.

 

Isn't it better to have one guy pitch three innings or at least two innings, shut him down for 4 days instead using 3 pitchers and all three are unavailable for 3 games?

 

Pitching gurus, tell me I'm stupid.

 

Why are we throwing Darwinzon? Maybe we'll need him tomorrow. I thought he was one of our better pen guy.

 

Pitchers who just pitch one inning can go again in 2 days not 3, and many can pitch one inning back-to-back several times in a season. With 9 RPers wel’ll never run out of fresh sucky arms.

[moonslav59]

Franchy’s OPS went up 57 points, today.

 

Dalbec & Bogey’s went up over 30.

 

Dalbec passed Renfroe, today.

 

Bogey passed JD.

[moonslav59]

check out our starter ERAs:

 

3.16 Pivetta

3.40 Perez

3.89 Richards

4.15 ERod

4.20 Eovaldi

 

Looks just about upside down from spring training expectations.

[Nick]

You keep acting like someone is defending Cordero being on the roster.

 

We’ve already seen a plus from Chavis, and adding Santana makes sense.

 

Defending Brice is not helping your position. Spreading his IP around to the other sucky 5 could do no harm.

 

I was thinking Darwinzon is high on the list, why waste him in a 9-0 game? To boot he's only one of two left handers and even Cora has acknowledged that Taylor is bit off.

 

This is why I'm not a coach.

[moonslav59]

I was thinking Darwinzon is high on the list, why waste him in a 9-0 game? To boot he's only one of two left handers and even Cora has acknowledged that Taylor is bit off.

 

This is why I'm not a coach.

 

As you can probably tell by now, the list of six all seem about the same to me, except Brice.

 

DHern has a ton of potential but that 8.5 BB/9 rate is horrific. They all have some major flaw or are on a bad streak. I have faith a couple or three might end up giving us plus value, but at this moment bringing in any of these 6 is a coin toss with a two-headed quarter.

[Maxbialystock]

You keep acting like someone is defending Cordero being on the roster.

 

We’ve already seen a plus from Chavis, and adding Santana makes sense.

 

Defending Brice is not helping your position. Spreading his IP around to the other sucky 5 could do no harm.

 

I don't like Brice any more than you like Cordero. I'm just saying that when the bullpen has already shown signs of fatigue, it makes sense to have the extra arm. Cordero is on the active roster because Hernandez and Arroyo are on the IL.

[Bellhorn04]

I was thinking Darwinzon is high on the list, why waste him in a 9-0 game? To boot he's only one of two left handers and even Cora has acknowledged that Taylor is bit off.

 

This is why I'm not a coach.

 

Taylor has pitched better recently than DHern so it made sense to give DHern the work yesterday.

 

There really is some logic in how they make the pitching choices.

[Maxbialystock]

It's May 16, 41 games and over 1/4th into the season, and my realistic view of 2021 says the Sox have the most wins, 25, and the best winning percentage, .610, in MLB.

 

Lurking nearby, however are the Yankees, Jays, and Rays--all within 3 games of the Sox.

 

This season so far is a gift to Sox fans.

[moonslav59]

I don't like Brice any more than you like Cordero. I'm just saying that when the bullpen has already shown signs of fatigue, it makes sense to have the extra arm. Cordero is on the active roster because Hernandez and Arroyo are on the IL.

 

Why are you blaming their suckiness on fatigue?

 

Our starters are 5th in IP and we’ve had 9 RPers all season. The only guy on pace for too many innings is Barnes, not one of the sucky six.

 

Show me one example where we brought in a sucky six pitcher on too short rest.

 

Everyone of the sucky six are on pace for 60 IP or less, except Andriese, who is a long man, and he’s headed for 65, which is low for a long man.

 

There is some advantage to allowing Cora one more choice in trying to determine who matches up best with the next batter(s), but no matter who he chooses, when they end up sucking, he gets blamed for bringing in someone who has sucked recently, despite the fact that all six have sucked recently.

[moonslav59]

I don't like Brice any more than you like Cordero. I'm just saying that when the bullpen has already shown signs of fatigue, it makes sense to have the extra arm. Cordero is on the active roster because Hernandez and Arroyo are on the IL.

 

Giving all of Brice’s IP to the other 5 sucky RPers plus Whitlock would not have even come close to overworking any of them.

 

Brice has less than 12 IP. That’s two for each of the 6 not named Barnes or Ottavino.

 

Name one of those six that you think adding 2 IP would have fatigued him.

[Kimmi]

I didn't care about Moncada but I sure hated to lose Kopech. No regrets with Sale coming over.

 

I don't have any regrets about losing Moncada or Kopech, per se. I certainly don't have any regrets about having Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

Giving all of Brice’s IP to the other 5 sucky RPers plus Whitlock would not have even come close to overworking any of them.

 

Brice has less than 12 IP. That’s two for each of the 6 not named Barnes or Ottavino.

 

Name one of those six that you think adding 2 IP would have fatigued him.

 

How the heck is anyone supposed to know who would be fatigued by adding 2 IP?

 

The whole reason they allowed teams to carry 14 pitchers was because of COVID. Nobody really knows how the abbreviated 2020 season will affect pitchers' stamina.

 

Right now, Whitlock will be missing a few days because of a bad reaction to his second vaccine shot.

 

There's a lot of crap that hasn't been dealt with before.

[Kimmi]

Agreed, but STL & SFG have slightly better winning %'s.

 

And the Red Sox once again have the best winning % in baseball.

 

That said, I'm a huge fan of run differential, which is what I was going off of. In terms of run differential, the White Sox are still tops.

[Kimmi]

Is it time to move Renfroe and Dalbec up in the line-up?

 

No, leave them where they are.

 

Suddenly, the bottom of our line up is not the huge black hole that they looked like a week ago.

 

Patience.

[Kimmi]

Realistic view? We are one of the best teams in baseball —today. What about that?

 

Deal with that tomorrow boy.

 

Post of the day!

[Maxbialystock]

And the Red Sox once again have the best winning % in baseball.

 

That said, I'm a huge fan of run differential, which is what I was going off of. In terms of run differential, the White Sox are still tops.

 

They sure are, so I hope I don't have to remind you that the A's, who took 2 of 3 from the Sox, are 24-17 and have a run differential of -9. Indeed, in the 3 game Sox series, the A's scored 8 runs and gave up 11.

[Maxbialystock]

No, leave them where they are.

 

Suddenly, the bottom of our line up is not the huge black hole that they looked like a week ago.

 

Patience.

 

Completely agree. I remember early in Devers career when he thrived near the bottom but not when he was moved up in the lineup.