A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[cp176]

Without power for a day??? Whiners! You need to move to Maine, home of 10-15 day power outages. That's why I bit the bullet for a generator (which is not a great solution, by the way, but better than having to crap in the compost heap for a week or more.)

 

Our little family of four plus the dogs and cats lived in two of the rooms in our home neither of which smelled particularly good for 16 days without power. Not a problem for me actually. it was somewhat eerie. As quiet as I can ever remember.

[jad]

Our little family of four plus the dogs and cats lived in two of the rooms in our home neither of which smelled particularly good for 16 days without power. Not a problem for me actually. it was somewhat eerie. As quiet as I can ever remember.

 

That's what I hoped for too. But when the power goes out here, the roar from generators is everywhere. (These things could be made quieter--look at cars! But everyone seems to be of the opinion that since their neighbor's generator is loud, their own must be louder.)

[cp176]

That's what I hoped for too. But when the power goes out here, the roar from generators is everywhere. (These things could be made quieter--look at cars! But everyone seems to be of the opinion that since their neighbor's generator is loud, their own must be louder.)

 

i know right. In 1997, there weren't all that many automatically operated generators in people's homes. The quiet was only broken by the sound of the ice melting from the limbs of many of the birches most days. We survived it well and actually kind of enjoyed the break we got from pace of life.

[moonslav59]

We got our power back around midnight- just as temps were dropping below 20 and headed towards 13.

 

It still shocks me that 25 degree temperatures can cripple a whole state.

[harmony]

We got our power back around midnight- just as temps were dropping below 20 and headed towards 13.

 

It still shocks me that 25 degree temperatures can cripple a whole state.

My power remains out in Portland, Oregon, but I still hope to get my second Moderna shot today.

[mvp 78]

We got our power back around midnight- just as temps were dropping below 20 and headed towards 13.

 

It still shocks me that 25 degree temperatures can cripple a whole state.

 

The infrastructure is different. There is little reason for them to plan for record breaking temperatures. However, I've read that the TX energy grid is very outdated. Maybe they can get around to fixing that at some point.

[moonslav59]

The infrastructure is different. There is little reason for them to plan for record breaking temperatures. However, I've read that the TX energy grid is very outdated. Maybe they can get around to fixing that at some point.

 

The thing is, the state went dark way before temps reached the lowest temps since 1989.

 

Yes, our grid is a mess, and it's been known to be so for a long time.

 

We are expanding solar power, here, but coal burning is still a significant factor in our power generation.

 

[jad]

The infrastructure is different. There is little reason for them to plan for record breaking temperatures. However, I've read that the TX energy grid is very outdated. Maybe they can get around to fixing that at some point.

 

That would be SOCIALISM!!!!

[jacksonianmarch]

In light of the fact that I think the sox and yanks are now complete, the realistic view from me is the following. And I am going to predict the entire division

 

1. Yanks 95-67

2. Jays 90-72

3. Rays 88-74

4. Sox 72-90

5. Orioles 45-117

 

There are three possible PO teams in the East and a team in the sox who would normally finish a few wins higher in a lesser division. But the real story for this year is how bad the O's are going to be. After essentially sending off any player with 1+ in the millions column and clearly nearing bankruptcy, I think the O's will be a dumpster fire of epic proportions. And it is the perfect storm. 3 contenders in division and an epically bad team. I think the O's may challenge the expansion Mets loss record of 120

[moonslav59]

In light of the fact that I think the sox and yanks are now complete, the realistic view from me is the following. And I am going to predict the entire division

 

1. Yanks 95-67

2. Jays 90-72

3. Rays 88-74

4. Sox 72-90

5. Orioles 45-117

 

There are three possible PO teams in the East and a team in the sox who would normally finish a few wins higher in a lesser division. But the real story for this year is how bad the O's are going to be. After essentially sending off any player with 1+ in the millions column and clearly nearing bankruptcy, I think the O's will be a dumpster fire of epic proportions. And it is the perfect storm. 3 contenders in division and an epically bad team. I think the O's may challenge the expansion Mets loss record of 120

 

Our winning percentage, last year, would have projected to 65 wins,

 

You basically say losing JBJ and Beni while adding ERod, Richards, Ottavino, EHern, Renroe, Cordero and a full seasons from Pivetta, Dalbec and others and maybe something from Sale equals just +7 wins.

 

Sounds real fair, unless you think the Sox over performed, last year.

[mvp 78]

Our winning percentage, last year, would have projected to 65 wins,

 

You basically say losing JBJ and Beni while adding ERod, Richards, Ottavino, EHern, Renroe, Cordero and a full seasons from Pivetta, Dalbec and others and maybe something from Sale equals just +7 wins.

 

Sounds real fair, unless you think the Sox over performed, last year.

 

C'mon moon, jacko is on a 5 year streak of being right about the Red Sox! He can't possibly screw this one up.

[moonslav59]

C'mon moon, jacko is on a 5 year streak of being right about the Red Sox! He can't possibly screw this one up.

 

The other interesting point is that the Yanks projected to 89 wins,last year and lost Tanaka, Paxton, Happ and others, but now, magically they win 95.

 

One could easily argue the Sox improved by more than the Yanks did, but he gives both teams 6-7 more wins.

[moonslav59]

Springs was just DFA'd to add Sawamura to the roster.

[notin]

Springs was just DFA'd to add Sawamura to the roster.

 

A move only slightly less surprising than the rising of the sun this morning...

[moonslav59]

Gone from 2020:

 

JBJ

Beni

Pedey

Peraza

Lin

Rusney Castillo

Chatham

Grullon

Godley

Kickham

Covey

Tapia

Stock

Leyer

Triggs

Aybar

Payamps (added after 2020 season)

Springs

 

Added:

Richards

Ottavino

E Hernandez

Renfroe

Cordero

M Gonzalez

Sawamura

Andriese

Whitlock

German

C Koss

Winckowski

PTBNL from Mets (Khalil Lee)

2 PTBNL from KCR (Beni)

PTBNL or $$$ for Chatham

 

I'd have to say that is a pretty nice revamping of the 26 man roster, but even better with the bottom of the 40 man roster and non 40 man roster system.

Edited February 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

A move only slightly less surprising than the rising of the sun this morning...

 

Springs has sprung.

[mvp 78]

Springs has sprung.

 

Keeping Brice isn't nice.

[moonslav59]

Springs sprung is twice as nice as Brice.

[a700hitter]

Springs was just DFA'd to add Sawamura to the roster.

What a shame. There had been such high hopes for him.

[moonslav59]

What a shame. There had been such high hopes for him.

 

Something we finally agree on.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What a shame. There had been such high hopes for him.

 

At least to live forever.

 

... or would that be: hope springs immortal?

[jacksonianmarch]

Our winning percentage, last year, would have projected to 65 wins,

 

You basically say losing JBJ and Beni while adding ERod, Richards, Ottavino, EHern, Renroe, Cordero and a full seasons from Pivetta, Dalbec and others and maybe something from Sale equals just +7 wins.

 

Sounds real fair, unless you think the Sox over performed, last year.

 

Your bullpen is a disaster and while adding Ottavino should help to some degree, he is no savior. You got worse in the lineup, even if you added more versatility. Your rotation did get better, but it doesnt take much. If your team went a full 162 last year, you'd have been lower than .400. Most non-contending teams fade harder as the harsh reality of no post season sets in. Now, the caveat of a young team can make late season bad teams dangerous, but the sox arent a young team. Your rotation, currently, is led by Richards as he enters 2021 fully healthy. He is no ironman, but he is a positive and a sneaky good move by the sox. Your 2 is ERod, who will likely struggle early on with his conditioning. When he does start to regain his stuff, I expect him to be dealt, likely in June. Your 3 is Eovaldi, who has shown that you cannot count on him for anything beyond a month or two's worth of production. He will get hurt. He will have maddeningly inconsistent long stretches. Also, this year, if he does happen to have a good stretch of health and production, he should be dealt as well. Your 4 is Perez, who sucks. He does eat innings, but he sucks. Pivetta had one decent year in 2018, then could not stop letting up homers. His velo dropped last year, the sox picked him up and you think he will get better? Lower velo and a penchant for homers now moved to Fenway and faces the Yanks and Jays in a disproportionate amount of time? Wishful thinking. Sale will return, but he will be held back because the sox are likely to be well out of it by mid to late June. Yes, he should win some games, but he may not debut until August as they really arent targeting anything in 2021.

 

This is the trajectory of the sox, IMO.

 

.500-ish March/April

.450-.500ish May

.450-ish June- multiple players dealt off

trainwreck from July 1 on

[mvp 78]

Your bullpen is a disaster and while adding Ottavino should help to some degree, he is no savior. You got worse in the lineup, even if you added more versatility. Your rotation did get better, but it doesnt take much. If your team went a full 162 last year, you'd have been lower than .400. Most non-contending teams fade harder as the harsh reality of no post season sets in. Now, the caveat of a young team can make late season bad teams dangerous, but the sox arent a young team. Your rotation, currently, is led by Richards as he enters 2021 fully healthy. He is no ironman, but he is a positive and a sneaky good move by the sox. Your 2 is ERod, who will likely struggle early on with his conditioning. When he does start to regain his stuff, I expect him to be dealt, likely in June. Your 3 is Eovaldi, who has shown that you cannot count on him for anything beyond a month or two's worth of production. He will get hurt. He will have maddeningly inconsistent long stretches. Also, this year, if he does happen to have a good stretch of health and production, he should be dealt as well. Your 4 is Perez, who sucks. He does eat innings, but he sucks. Pivetta had one decent year in 2018, then could not stop letting up homers. His velo dropped last year, the sox picked him up and you think he will get better? Lower velo and a penchant for homers now moved to Fenway and faces the Yanks and Jays in a disproportionate amount of time? Wishful thinking. Sale will return, but he will be held back because the sox are likely to be well out of it by mid to late June. Yes, he should win some games, but he may not debut until August as they really arent targeting anything in 2021.

 

This is the trajectory of the sox, IMO.

 

.500-ish March/April

.450-.500ish May

.450-ish June- multiple players dealt off

trainwreck from July 1 on

 

You see, JD would have even been worse the extra 100 games, Raffy would've taken longer to turn things around and the pitching would have been worse!

 

This ignores how luck impacted the Sox in a short season (ranked high in total bases, high in left on base, high in double plays and low on sacrifices). Over the course of a full season, more runners on base would mean more runs, which means more wins.

[mvp 78]

The team loses JBJ and Beni, but adds Marwin, Kiké, Franchy and Renfroe. "Wow, much worse team! Downgrade!"

[oldtimer]

The team loses JBJ and Beni, but adds Marwin, Kiké, Franchy and Renfroe. "Wow, much worse team! Downgrade!"

 

Everyone has an opinion!

[moonslav59]

The team loses JBJ and Beni, but adds Marwin, Kiké, Franchy and Renfroe. "Wow, much worse team! Downgrade!"

 

One could just have easily expected a downturn from JBJ as un upturn from Beni.

 

No way did we get worse by replacing these two with Renfroe, who by himself is better than Beni, Kike, Franchy & Marwin.

 

We are also adding a full year of Dalbec.

 

Yes, our pen is a mess, and Ottavino is "no savior," but he improves it. Barnes did not pitch much in 2020, either. He will in 2021. That's a big help.

 

Our rotation did get better "but it didn't take much." LOL! Just because it sucked, last year, doesn't mean a massive improvement should be viewed as "It didn't take much."

 

Even if ERod & Sale do not come back at full or near full force, our rotation is much much stronger, on paper.

 

2020: 12 GS=20%

2021: 32 GS=20%

 

2020 GS%>2021 GS%

20% Perez> 20%

15% Eovaldi> maybe 15% again (24 starts)

20% Godley & Weber> 20% from ERod + Sale

20% Mazza, Brewer Kickham>Richards + more than Houck's 3 GS in '20

20% Hart, Triggs, Brasier, Brice, Osich, Hall, Leyer + 2 from Pivetta> 20% more from Piveta plus Whitlock, Mata, Seabold

 

On paper, this looks like a massive improvement. Of course, much is speculative, but one could say teh same about the Yankee projected rotation.

 

[moonslav59]

Expect about the same pro-rated IP'd from Martin Perez (1st in IP in 2020), Nathan Eovaldi (2nd) & Brasier (8th).

 

Expect zero IP from these pitchers:

Mazza (5th)

Godley (6th)

Springs (10th)

Osich (13th)

Kickham (T14th)

Covey (T14th)

Stock (16th)

Hembree (20th)

Triggs (24th)

Workman (25th)

Leyer (26th)

Tiapa (27th)

Non pitchers

 

ONLY Workman is a significant loss here, and the total IP's from these players was 170 IP which is 33% of all 2020 IP!

 

33%! of the worst IP GONE!

 

 

Expect less to way less from these pitchers:

 

Weber (3rd most IP on Sox in 2020)

Valdez (4th)

Brewer (7th)

Brice (11th)

Walden (17th)

Hart (18th)

Hall (21st)

 

This list totals 125 Total IP or 24%.

 

33+24%= 57% gone or greatly reduced.

 

That's a lot of room for improvement when projecting those IP'd being replaced by...

 

 

Expect more from these pitchers:

DHern (22nd)

Barnes (9th)

Taylor (24th)

 

Expect way more from these pitchers:

ERod

Richards

Sale

Houck

Pivetta

Ottavino

Andriese

Sawamura

Whitlock

Mata, Seabold, Gossett, Bazardo

 

[moonslav59]

This is not a bad core of young and prime players:

 

(3 or more years of team control)

 

27 Bogaerts (opt out)

23 Devers

24 Verdugo

31 Sale

23 DHern

24 Houck

25 Dalbec

27 Pivetta

25 Cordero

 

Casas, Downs, Mata, Duran, Jimenez, Ward, Seabold, Ramirez, Song, Groome, Yorke, Lugo, Potts, Rosario, Jordan...

 

[Bellhorn04]

Your bullpen is a disaster and while adding Ottavino should help to some degree, he is no savior. You got worse in the lineup, even if you added more versatility. Your rotation did get better, but it doesnt take much. If your team went a full 162 last year, you'd have been lower than .400. Most non-contending teams fade harder as the harsh reality of no post season sets in. Now, the caveat of a young team can make late season bad teams dangerous, but the sox arent a young team. Your rotation, currently, is led by Richards as he enters 2021 fully healthy. He is no ironman, but he is a positive and a sneaky good move by the sox. Your 2 is ERod, who will likely struggle early on with his conditioning. When he does start to regain his stuff, I expect him to be dealt, likely in June. Your 3 is Eovaldi, who has shown that you cannot count on him for anything beyond a month or two's worth of production. He will get hurt. He will have maddeningly inconsistent long stretches. Also, this year, if he does happen to have a good stretch of health and production, he should be dealt as well. Your 4 is Perez, who sucks. He does eat innings, but he sucks. Pivetta had one decent year in 2018, then could not stop letting up homers. His velo dropped last year, the sox picked him up and you think he will get better? Lower velo and a penchant for homers now moved to Fenway and faces the Yanks and Jays in a disproportionate amount of time? Wishful thinking. Sale will return, but he will be held back because the sox are likely to be well out of it by mid to late June. Yes, he should win some games, but he may not debut until August as they really arent targeting anything in 2021.

 

This is the trajectory of the sox, IMO.

 

.500-ish March/April

.450-.500ish May

.450-ish June- multiple players dealt off

trainwreck from July 1 on

 

Your prognostications will be given all the credibility they deserve.

[Bellhorn04]

If your team went a full 162 last year, you'd have been lower than .400. Most non-contending teams fade harder as the harsh reality of no post season sets in. Now, the caveat of a young team can make late season bad teams dangerous, but the sox arent a young team.

 

The Sox aren't a young team? They're certainly not an old team. I don't see this point having much merit.