A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They'll be better than Tampa and Cleveland. I think the 47% is indicative of expanded playoffs, rather than the strength of the ballclub.

 

But is Boston as a second Wild Card more of a sure thing than comparable teams in the NL Central -- where someone has to win the division and automatically make it?

[Bellhorn04]

But is Boston as a second Wild Card more of a sure thing than comparable teams in the NL Central -- where someone has to win the division and automatically make it?

 

It's all realistic guesswork that no one would actually bet a dime on.

[mvp 78]

But is Boston as a second Wild Card more of a sure thing than comparable teams in the NL Central -- where someone has to win the division and automatically make it?

 

I don't follow the NL as much. Hard to say how good the Nats really are. They didn't look like a good team last year. Very top heavy.

[jad]

I don't follow the NL as much. Hard to say how good the Nats really are. They didn't look like a good team last year. Very top heavy.

 

I hear the Dodgers are pretty good. (But then, you can't really expect small market teams like Boston to compete.)

[moonslav59]

ALE wins

97 Yankees

88 Jays

85 Sox

84 Rays

52 O’s

 

We lost power again- maybe rolling blackouts. Water is back.

[jacksonianmarch]

They'll be better than Tampa and Cleveland. I think the 47% is indicative of expanded playoffs, rather than the strength of the ballclub.

 

The Rays still have that pen, they’ve got an ace in Glasnow and who knows behind him with Yarbrough as the most consistent option. Their offense is interchangeable as well. They operate by having their starter go 4-5 innings then shutting everyone down after that with the type of team that can scratch a run home late on the bases. The Rays will be better than the sox

[moonslav59]

The Rays always surprise but when you compare player to player. We look better, even figuring for injuries. No Snell, Morton or Chirinos. It will be close.

[mvp 78]

I hear the Dodgers are pretty good. (But then, you can't really expect small market teams like Boston to compete.)

 

It's just a college town that empties out the summer. I'm surprised they haven't moved to Nashville by now.

[mvp 78]

The Rays still have that pen, they’ve got an ace in Glasnow and who knows behind him with Yarbrough as the most consistent option. Their offense is interchangeable as well. They operate by having their starter go 4-5 innings then shutting everyone down after that with the type of team that can scratch a run home late on the bases. The Rays will be better than the sox

 

They lost Snell and Morton in FA. They lost Chrinos to TJS. That's a lot of innings to make up for.

[harmony]

I don't follow the NL as much. Hard to say how good the Nats really are. They didn't look like a good team last year. Very top heavy.

That's an apt description of another club.

[dgalehouse]

My local wagering " expert " Paul " Needlenose " Minagge gives the following odds on the A.L. East race. Yankees the favorite at 5-2 . Rays at 7-1 . Jays at 11-1 . Sox at 20-1. Orioles - forget about it. When asked if he consults Baseball Trade Values , he said " Huh ?"

[jacksonianmarch]

They lost Snell and Morton in FA. They lost Chrinos to TJS. That's a lot of innings to make up for.

 

They also have a ton of minor league level talent in the rotation. They added Archer, who is a crap shoot, but had great success in TB. They added Wacha who is also a crap shoot, most likely crap. They have McLanahan, Honeywell and Patino. Glasnow is an ace, but cannot stay healthy. Yarbrough is solid for what they need. Chirinos is out for the year, so he is no help there. We shall see. They have top level talent. They also get a full year of Arozarena, who looks like a beast. We shall see, but I think they are gonna make the POs

[Bellhorn04]

They also have a ton of minor league level talent in the rotation. They added Archer, who is a crap shoot, but had great success in TB. They added Wacha who is also a crap shoot, most likely crap. They have McLanahan, Honeywell and Patino. Glasnow is an ace, but cannot stay healthy. Yarbrough is solid for what they need. Chirinos is out for the year, so he is no help there. We shall see. They have top level talent. They also get a full year of Arozarena, who looks like a beast. We shall see, but I think they are gonna make the POs

 

It's way too early to call Glasnow an ace.

[mvp 78]

That's an apt description of another club.

 

Sensations Cabaret? Body Talk? The Glass Slipper?

[mvp 78]

They also have a ton of minor league level talent in the rotation. They added Archer, who is a crap shoot, but had great success in TB. They added Wacha who is also a crap shoot, most likely crap. They have McLanahan, Honeywell and Patino. Glasnow is an ace, but cannot stay healthy. Yarbrough is solid for what they need. Chirinos is out for the year, so he is no help there. We shall see. They have top level talent. They also get a full year of Arozarena, who looks like a beast. We shall see, but I think they are gonna make the POs

 

Arozarena is pitching this year?

[jacksonianmarch]

They need a starter to go 4 innings. That’s it. Their pen is top notch

[notin]

They lost Snell and Morton in FA. They lost Chrinos to TJS. That's a lot of innings to make up for.

 

Snell was not a free agent. They acquired RHP Luis Patino for him. Patino is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of MLB...

[a700hitter]

Snell was not a free agent. They acquired RHP Luis Patino for him. Patino is a consensus top 20 prospect in all of MLB...

Which means that he has a 75% chance of being out of baseball within 4 years.

[mvp 78]

They need a starter to go 4 innings. That’s it. Their pen is top notch

 

That works over 60 games, probably not 162.

[notin]

Which means that he has a 75% chance of being out of baseball within 4 years.

 

So.... then Snell was a free agent?

[notin]

That works over 60 games, probably not 162.

 

No kidding.

 

Teams typically have to cover about 1450 innings over the course a season. On most teams, starters get maybe 800-900 innings, leaving 550-650 for the bullpen. If the Rays or any team with a good bullpen reduced the starter workload to, say, 700 innings, they are expecting the bullpen to pick up A LOT of slack...

[jacksonianmarch]

I also forgot Rich Hill, who himself is no iron man. Not sure what it is, but the last two seasons, they've survived and thrived.

[moonslav59]

I never count the Rays out, but on paper, but they took a big hit.

 

The Jays improved but still lack pitching.

 

The Yanks appeared to have stayed about even.

 

The O's went from bad to worse.

 

The Sox got significantly better but starting from last place makes it hard to determine where we end up.

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

The Red Sox were among the teams in attendance for free-agent righty Chaz Roe’s bullpen session over the weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The 34-year-old reliever spent the previous three-plus seasons in Tampa Bay and is familiar with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be a Rays executive. Roe threw only 9 1/3 innings in 2020, but he was overall a solid bullpen option as a member of the Rays, with whom he pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.73 SIERA in 119 1/3 frames.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never count the Rays out, but on paper, but they took a big hit.

 

The Jays improved but still lack pitching.

 

The Yanks appeared to have stayed about even.

 

The O's went from bad to worse.

 

The Sox got significantly better but starting from last place makes it hard to determine where we end up.

 

 

Yanks even? We got s*** from Paxton. We lost Happ and Tanaka. We have German, Taillon and Kluber (we shall see if he’s healthy) from day 1 and Sevy returns mid season. The Yanks are far better

[notin]

Yanks even? We got s*** from Paxton. We lost Happ and Tanaka. We have German, Taillon and Kluber (we shall see if he’s healthy) from day 1 and Sevy returns mid season. The Yanks are far better

 

You also have Boone, so subtract a few points...

[mvp 78]

Yanks even? We got s*** from Paxton. We lost Happ and Tanaka. We have German, Taillon and Kluber (we shall see if he’s healthy) from day 1 and Sevy returns mid season. The Yanks are far better

 

The Yankees get better EVERY offseason and the Sox just seem to be not as good as they once were EVERY offseason.

[moonslav59]

Yanks even? We got s*** from Paxton. We lost Happ and Tanaka. We have German, Taillon and Kluber (we shall see if he’s healthy) from day 1 and Sevy returns mid season. The Yanks are far better

 

Dream on. You go by just last years numbers, yes Paxton and Happ gave nothing but look beyond one year. Also, if you by just last year, Taillon, Kluber and other you have gave NOTHING!

[moonslav59]

The Yankees get better EVERY offseason and the Sox just seem to be not as good as they once were EVERY offseason.

 

They only “got better” if a bunch of 2020 do nothings do something

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Cora says

@eduardorod5 (ERod)

is a “full-go” after missing last season.