A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

All the best dominoes are falling fast!

 

 

Jake Marisnick is basically Billy Hamilton. Hamilton does steal more, but Marisnick cheats...

[moonslav59]

Jake Marisnick is basically Billy Hamilton. Hamilton does steal more, but Marisnick cheats...

 

Marisnick did not cheat from 2019-2010 (.726 OPS).

 

Hamilton from 2019-2020? .548.

 

That's the same difference between a .700 OPS and an .878 OPS!

 

Hamilton was at .629 his previous 5 seasons- never getting above .664.

 

I'll take a much better bat over a few more SBs from a guy who never gets on base (.278 OBP since 2019).

[notin]

Marisnick did not cheat from 2019-2010 (.726 OPS).

 

Hamilton from 2019-2020? .548.

 

That's the same difference between a .700 OPS and an .878 OPS!

 

Hamilton was at .629 his previous 5 seasons- never getting above .664.

 

I'll take a much better bat over a few more SBs from a guy who never gets on base (.278 OBP since 2019).

 

Let's not go touting the offensive skills of Marisnick just yet. His OPS+ in the last two seasons in 88, which is rapidly approaching Billy Hamilton territory (career OPS+ of 67). Marisnick is the better hitter, but that does not make him a good hitter.

 

And Marisnick's OBP in those two seasons is .295!! So over 500 PA, he gets on base maybe 8 more times?

Edited February 11, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

Let's not go touting the offensive skills of Marisnick just yet. His OPS+ in the last two seasons in 88, which is rapidly approaching Billy Hamilton territory (career OPS+ of 67). Marisnick is the better hitter, but that does not make him a good hitter.

 

And Marisnick's OBP in those two seasons is .295!! So over 500 PA, he gets on base maybe 8 more times?

 

I never said he was a good hitter, but 178 points on OPS is a substantial differential... certainly enough to make up for a few extra SBs by Hamilton.

[harmony]

I don't see us signing Mitch. I do think our OF choice will be Pillar or Marisnick.

 

I may be in the minority, and I'm not big Chavis fan, but I think he starts the year on the 26 man roster and is given a chance to prove he belongs on the 26 and 40 man roster at all.

 

Find out as early as we can.

The 2021 Marcel projections for Jake Marisnick and Kevin Pillar (who is two years older than Marisnick):

 

JM 278 PA, .235/.298/.410/.709

KP 566 PA, .253/.296/.422/.718

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Marisnick with 2021 WAR of 0.3 and 0.2 in 53 games each while projecting Pillar with 2021 WAR of 0.7 in 96 games and 0.7 in 146 games.

[moonslav59]

The 2021 Marcel projections for Jake Marisnick and Kevin Pillar (who is two years older than Marisnick):

 

JM 278 PA, .235/.298/.410/.709

KP 566 PA, .253/.296/.422/.718

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Marisnick with 2021 WAR of 0.3 and 0.2 in 53 games each while projecting Pillar with 2021 WAR of 0.7 in 96 games and 0.7 in 146 games.

 

Marisnick was the guy I thought fit within our budget.

 

I didn't expect him to play FT, and I'm pulling for EHern to get more time in CF than 2B, but the Marisnick ship has sailed.

 

I'd be okay with not signing Pillar. Maybe trade for Adam Frasier.

[notin]

I never said he was a good hitter, but 178 points on OPS is a substantial differential... certainly enough to make up for a few extra SBs by Hamilton.

 

Is it?

 

Hamilton's playing time has been sporadic the last few yers, as he has played on 4 different teams since 2018. His last season as a regular, he posted an OPS+ of 69 with an OPS of .626. With Marisnick's OPS+ of 88 in the last two years, it translates to a comparable (as in if they played in the same ballparks, etc.) of about .700. ( I used Tucker Barnhart for a comparison, as he was ..699/88 OPS+ that year.) So it's more like 73 OPS points.

 

That year, Hamilton slugged .327 with 165 TB. If we add in his 34 steals to those total bases, and he has 199, his "effective SLG" rises to .395, which would give him an effective OPS of .694, or 5 points below Marisnick.

 

5 OPS points is about as insignificant as it gets.

 

There is not much difference. Hamilton will hit fewer doubles, but he will get to second base just the same.

 

And defensively, they rank out similarly in CF. Hamilton's UZR is roughly double Marisnick's, but the same goes for his innings in the position.

[moonslav59]

Is it?

 

Hamilton's playing time has been sporadic the last few yers, as he has played on 4 different teams since 2018. His last season as a regular, he posted an OPS+ of 69 with an OPS of .626. With Marisnick's OPS+ of 88 in the last two years, it translates to a comparable (as in if they played in the same ballparks, etc.) of about .700. ( I used Tucker Barnhart for a comparison, as he was ..699/88 OPS+ that year.) So it's more like 73 OPS points.

 

That year, Hamilton slugged .327 with 165 TB. If we add in his 34 steals to those total bases, and he has 199, his "effective SLG" rises to .395, which would give him an effective OPS of .694, or 5 points below Marisnick.

 

5 OPS points is about as insignificant as it gets.

 

There is not much difference. Hamilton will hit fewer doubles, but he will get to second base just the same.

 

And defensively, they rank out similarly in CF. Hamilton's UZR is roughly double Marisnick's, but the same goes for his innings in the position.

 

Isn't that assuming Marisnick steals no bases and not counting Hamilton's caught stealings?

[notin]

Isn't that assuming Marisnick steals no bases and not counting Hamilton's caught stealings?

 

Per 162 games, Hamilton has averaged 45 net stolen bases (SB - CS). Marisnick has averaged 11 net stolen bases. So the value of 34 that I used accounts for all of this. Although technically a CS should be applied to OBP and not SLG. The amount of bases don’t change, but being on base does...

[a700hitter]

Marisnick stinks. Glad he went elsewhere.

 

But the Red Sox OF is now Verdugo, Renfroe and .... part time J.D. and ....?

[notin]

Marisnick stinks. Glad he went elsewhere.

 

But the Red Sox OF is now Verdugo, Renfroe and .... part time J.D. and ....?

 

Marisnick is a 4th outfielder. A good one to have, but nothing more.

 

Still think Cordero in CF and Verdugo in RF. Renfroe and a LHH outfielder platoon in LF.

 

Corey Dickerson is a good candidate for that final role...

[mvp 78]

Marisnick is a 4th outfielder. A good one to have, but nothing more.

 

Still think Cordero in CF and Verdugo in RF. Renfroe and a LHH outfielder platoon in LF.

 

Corey Dickerson is a good candidate for that final role...

 

I think that's what they are looking for, a jack of all trades that can back up all 3 OF positions. That's why I think it'll be Pillar.

[notin]

I think that's what they are looking for, a jack of all trades that can back up all 3 OF positions. That's why I think it'll be Pillar.

 

Oh I still think he is on the radar. Probably more so than Dickerson. But to me, Dickerson makes more sense in a lot of ways, although the money could be an issue...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Oh I still think he is on the radar. Probably more so than Dickerson. But to me, Dickerson makes more sense in a lot of ways, although the money could be an issue...

 

Are you sure the Red Sox are good enough to get Dickerson? He's a full-time player, and that goes against every acquisition of Bloom's offseason. Plus, if they' were going to spend $8+ mil on a left fielder, Rosario was available... and suggested by Vazquez, and had a Cora connection (hope those weren't negatives).

[notin]

Are you sure the Red Sox are good enough to get Dickerson? He's a full-time player, and that goes against every acquisition of Bloom's offseason. Plus, if they' were going to spend $8+ mil on a left fielder, Rosario was available... and suggested by Vazquez, and had a Cora connection (hope those weren't negatives).

 

I doubt they move on Dickerson, whom Roster Resource lists as part of a platoon with Lewis Brinson. (I have my doubts.)

 

But unlike with Rosario, if the Sox try to trade for Dickerson, they have the chance to have Miami include money and bring the total down a bit...

[moonslav59]

Who are some rather low cost CF'er or 2Bmen available via trade, at this point? Someone that won't take a decent prospect to acquire and will not bite into the budget too much?

 

We could maybe afford another Ottavino type deal, but maybe not that much cash.

 

I'm thinking Adam Frasier (2B-Pitt) is one name that has been floated.

 

I'm thinking with no more moves made, these players will see the most time at these positions (2nd most):

 

C: Vaz (Plawecki)

1B: Dalbec (Chavis)

2B: Hernandez (Arroyo)

3B: Devers (Arroyo)

SS: Bogaerts (Arroyo)

LF: Renfroe (JD in NL parks-Cordero)

CF: Cordero (EHern-Verdugo)

RF: Verdugo (Renfroe)

DH: JD (Chavis)

[notin]

Who are some rather low cost CF'er or 2Bmen available via trade, at this point? Someone that won't take a decent prospect to acquire and will not bite into the budget too much?

 

We could maybe afford another Ottavino type deal, but maybe not that much cash.

 

I'm thinking Adam Frasier (2B-Pitt) is one name that has been floated.

 

I'm thinking with no more moves made, these players will see the most time at these positions (2nd most):

 

C: Vaz (Plawecki)

1B: Dalbec (Chavis)

2B: Hernandez (Arroyo)

3B: Devers (Arroyo)

SS: Bogaerts (Arroyo)

LF: Renfroe (JD in NL parks-Cordero)

CF: Cordero (EHern-Verdugo)

RF: Verdugo (Renfroe)

DH: JD (Chavis)

 

Miami has two dirt cheap glove guys for CF, both of whom are benched behind Starling Marte in Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra. Neither has ever shown much offense, but Sierra is a little younger and more likely to turn it all around. Although "more likely" is this case might still not mean all that much.

 

As for 2B, Mike Moutakas is reportedly available, but has a very pricey contract and really, is not much for 2B.

 

Danny Mendick of the White Sox was a Gold Glove finalist at 2B and is currently benched behind Nick Madrigal. Not sure what it takes to get him.

 

Cleveland is reportedly shopping Amed Rosario.

 

Detroit might be listening on Niko Goodrum, who lost his starting role when they re-signed Schoop.

 

The Twins were shopping Luis Arraez, as they have a bulk of middle infielders on the MLB roster. But he is probably outside the Sox price range.

 

Seattle might be willing to part with Jake Fraley (CF) or Dylan Moore (2B) for the right price.

 

Atlanta has got to be looking to move Ender Inciarte to clear playing time for Christian Pache and possbily Drew Waters.

 

St Louis has Lane Thomas, a CF with no place to play.

 

Colorado will definitely trade CF Charlie Blackmom, but he makes a ton of money and cannot hit outside of Coors.

 

Philly has two middling CF candidates in Adam Hasely and Roman Quinn. Doubtful they would miss either one.

 

I doubt the Giants have any untouchables, but it would probably cost to bring Maurico Dubon back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Miami has two dirt cheap glove guys for CF, both of whom are benched behind Starling Marte in Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra. Neither has ever shown much offense, but Sierra is a little younger and more likely to turn it all around. Although "more likely" is this case might still not mean all that much.

 

As for 2B, Mike Moutakas is reportedly available, but has a very pricey contract and really, is not much for 2B.

 

Danny Mendick of the White Sox was a Gold Glove finalist at 2B and is currently benched behind Nick Madrigal. Not sure what it takes to get him.

 

Cleveland is reportedly shopping Amed Rosario.

 

Detroit might be listening on Niko Goodrum, who lost his starting role when they re-signed Schoop.

 

The Twins were shopping Luis Arraez, as they have a bulk of middle infielders on the MLB roster. But he is probably outside the Sox price range.

 

Seattle might be willing to part with Jake Fraley (CF) or Dylan Moore (2B) for the right price.

 

Atlanta has got to be looking to move Ender Inciarte to clear playing time for Christian Pache and possbily Drew Waters.

 

St Louis has Lane Thomas, a CF with no place to play.

 

Colorado will definitely trade CF Charlie Blackmom, but he makes a ton of money and cannot hit outside of Coors.

 

Philly has two middling CF candidates in Adam Hasely and Roman Quinn. Doubtful they would miss either one.

 

I doubt the Giants have any untouchables, but it would probably cost to bring Maurico Dubon back.

 

Good list. The Sox need to add someone with serious upside; not just a legit MLB player, but a future MLB star.

 

If Arraez is available, go get him. His swing reminds me of Rod Carew.

[moonslav59]

Miami has two dirt cheap glove guys for CF, both of whom are benched behind Starling Marte in Lewis Brinson and Magneuris Sierra. Neither has ever shown much offense, but Sierra is a little younger and more likely to turn it all around. Although "more likely" is this case might still not mean all that much.

 

As for 2B, Mike Moutakas is reportedly available, but has a very pricey contract and really, is not much for 2B.

 

Danny Mendick of the White Sox was a Gold Glove finalist at 2B and is currently benched behind Nick Madrigal. Not sure what it takes to get him.

 

Cleveland is reportedly shopping Amed Rosario.

 

Detroit might be listening on Niko Goodrum, who lost his starting role when they re-signed Schoop.

 

The Twins were shopping Luis Arraez, as they have a bulk of middle infielders on the MLB roster. But he is probably outside the Sox price range.

 

Seattle might be willing to part with Jake Fraley (CF) or Dylan Moore (2B) for the right price.

 

Atlanta has got to be looking to move Ender Inciarte to clear playing time for Christian Pache and possbily Drew Waters.

 

St Louis has Lane Thomas, a CF with no place to play.

 

Colorado will definitely trade CF Charlie Blackmom, but he makes a ton of money and cannot hit outside of Coors.

 

Philly has two middling CF candidates in Adam Hasely and Roman Quinn. Doubtful they would miss either one.

 

I doubt the Giants have any untouchables, but it would probably cost to bring Maurico Dubon back.

 

Thanks for the long list. Some of these names might work out.

 

The higher priced ones would need some cash included or a prospect thrown in to sweeten the deal.

 

I'm thinking Bloom would be looking for long term solutions on the younger side.

[notin]

Thanks for the long list. Some of these names might work out.

 

The higher priced ones would need some cash included or a prospect thrown in to sweeten the deal.

 

I'm thinking Bloom would be looking for long term solutions on the younger side.

 

My favorite candidate on that list taking everything into consideration is Danny Mendick. No idea what it would take to get him, but his value on BTV is surprisingly low, probably due to projections not giving him much playing time.

 

I am not sure if the Sox are taking the proximity of Jeter Downs into consideration, but Mendick played a lot of SS in the minors and allows the Sox to hedge their bets against Downs not arriving or Bogaerts opting out...

[mvp 78]

@Feinsand

Two rival executives believe the Red Sox are likely to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. now that they have traded Andrew Benintendi. "It makes too much sense not to happen now," one said.

 

(x) doubt

[notin]

@Feinsand

Two rival executives believe the Red Sox are likely to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. now that they have traded Andrew Benintendi. "It makes too much sense not to happen now," one said.

 

(x) doubt

 

I'm OK with that...

[mvp 78]

I'm OK with that...

 

I'd be ok with them bringing him back because you could slide him over to RF or LF if Duran gets ready, but I don't think it's in their budget. I think JBJ wants a multi year deal, so it would take more dollars for a one year deal to bring him back to the Sox. 1/9? Not sure they'd go over just to bring JBJ back.

[moonslav59]

I still don't see a JBJ signing, here.

 

Too much money. Too many years.

[mvp 78]

I still don't see a JBJ signing, here.

 

Too much money. Too many years.

 

I bet he is already holding onto a 2-3 year deal, but he doesn't like the amount. He was overpaid last year and may expect comparable money.

[mvp 78]

@byJulianMack

Good news: no more 7:30 red sox start times. All evening home games will begin at 7:10.

[moonslav59]

I bet he is already holding onto a 2-3 year deal, but he doesn't like the amount. He was overpaid last year and may expect comparable money.

 

Yes, overpaid while having a very good year that looks like it might have been an outlier.

 

He's not getting younger and has already seen his defense slip.

[harmony]

My favorite candidate on that list taking everything into consideration is Danny Mendick. No idea what it would take to get him, but his value on BTV is surprisingly low, probably due to projections not giving him much playing time.

 

I am not sure if the Sox are taking the proximity of Jeter Downs into consideration, but Mendick played a lot of SS in the minors and allows the Sox to hedge their bets against Downs not arriving or Bogaerts opting out...

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each position player, projects Danny Mendick with a 2021 WAR of 1.1:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=4&lg=all&players=0

 

As points of reference, Steamer600 projects 2021 WAR of 2.0 for Enrique Hernandez, 1.2 for Christian Arroyo and 0.3 for Jonathan Arauz.

Edited February 11, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Yes, overpaid while having a very good year that looks like it might have been an outlier.

 

He's not getting younger and has already seen his defense slip.

 

It's his right to hold out as long as he can. I hope he earns as much as he can wring out of these greedy owners. I just hope it's not here.

[a700hitter]

@Feinsand

Two rival executives believe the Red Sox are likely to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. now that they have traded Andrew Benintendi. "It makes too much sense not to happen now," one said.

 

(x) doubt

It wouldn’t make any sense to me.