A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Sox aren't a young team? They're certainly not an old team. I don't see this point having much merit.

 

True, I wouldn't say we are young, but we have very few old players and none way beyond prime.

 

Ottavino is 35 and is a FA after this year.

JD is 33- not far from prime.

Brasier is 33 and not a key piece to the team.

Richards is 32 with low mileage and an option year in 2022.

 

Sale is just 31 with high mileage.

Andriese is 31- not a key piece.

Eovaldi is 30 and has 2 years left.

Barnes is 30- last year of control.

Vaz is 30 and has an option for 2022.

EHern, Perez, Plawecki & Valdez are 29.

 

Renfroe & Bogey are 28.

ERod, Taylor & Pivetta 27

Dalbec, Chavis, Arroyo & Cordero are 26.

 

Verdugo, Devers, DHern,Whitlock & Houck are 24.

 

No major pieces to the 2021 team are under 24.

 

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nobody here or elsewhere is picking the Red Sox to win the '21 World Series, but since this is the realistic thread: are the Sox, set to open with half a lineup of platoon players, THAT much worse on screen than the favored Yankees?

 

To help answer, here are quick match-ups of the two rivals... 1B and 2nd go to Voit and DJ, no questions asked. But X is a better shortstop than Gleybar, and though Urshela is solid at the hot corner, would any GM turn down a straight trade for Devers? Nope. Frazier and Judge rule over any Red Sox corner outfielders, but in center, Verdugo at 24 > Hicks at 30. Behind the plate, NY has a guy they don't even want behind the plate, so Vazquez wins easily over Sanchez. DH is a pick-em, but here are three-year OPS in the Bronx and Beantown: Stanton .860, JD .938. Both starting rotations are full of questions marks, but the Yanks have Cole. New York also has an edge with their greatest bullpen of all-time (the one that keeps keeping them out of the World Series every postseason).

 

While some Yankee fans may strongly disagree with the above ratings, realistic fans know that every position but second base could go either way this year. The Yankees are certainly better, but they just better hope Cole stays healthy. The doormats aren't realistically that far away from the AL's heavy favorites.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Sox aren't a young team? They're certainly not an old team. I don't see this point having much merit.

 

The teams that are akin to the Marlins the last few years are dangerous teams because those guys are happy to be out of the minors. The Sox are full of veterans and once they’re out of contention, they’re gonna fade

[harmony]

The Sox aren't a young team? They're certainly not an old team. I don't see this point having much merit.

Last year, before adding Garrett Richards, Adam Ottavino, Matt Andriese and Hirokazu Sawamura, the Red Sox had one of the older pitching staffs in baseball:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-misc.shtml

 

The Sox hitters were on the younger side but the average age should rise with the subtraction of Andrew Benintendi and the additions of Marwin Gonzalez, Kike Hernández and Hunter Renfroe.

Edited February 17, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Last year, before adding Garrett Richards, Adam Ottavino, Matt Andriese and Hirokazu Sawamura, the Red Sox had one of the older pitching staffs in baseball:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2020-misc.shtml

 

The Sox hitters were on the younger side but the average age should rise with the subtraction of Andrew Benintendi and the additions of Marwin Gonzalez, Kike Hernández and Hunter Renfroe.

 

Weird how we were 10th oldest with only Brasier at age 32 and everyone else at 31 or younger.

 

We used 30 pitchers in a 60 game season.

1 @ 32 (Brasier)

6 @ 31 (only Walden remains and may not pitch in MLB, this year)

5 @ 30 (only Eovaldi & Barnes remain)

 

[harmony]

Weird how we were 10th oldest with only Brasier at age 32 and everyone else at 31 or younger.

 

We used 30 pitchers in a 60 game season.

1 @ 32 (Brasier)

6 @ 31 (only Walden remains and may not pitch in MLB, this year)

5 @ 30 (only Eovaldi & Barnes remain)

 

Last year the Seattle Mariners used 29 pitchers but got only 28.2 innings from the three pitchers in their age 30 or older seasons. Before the reported signing of James Paxton the Mariners were projected to open the season with a six-man rotation of pitchers shy of their 30th birthdays, including two 24-year-olds, a 25-year-old and a 26-year-old.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

 

The projected rotation does not include 21-year-old Emerson Hancock, 23-year-old Logan Gilbert or 23-year-old George Kirby, who rank No. 31, No. 33 and No. 92 at MLB Pipeline.

 

Top 100 Baseball Prospects | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

 

Happy 29th Birthday to underrated lefthander Marco Gonzales.

[oldtimer]

Nobody here or elsewhere is picking the Red Sox to win the '21 World Series, but since this is the realistic thread: are the Sox, set to open with half a lineup of platoon players, THAT much worse on screen than the favored Yankees?

 

To help answer, here are quick match-ups of the two rivals... 1B and 2nd go to Voit and DJ, no questions asked. But X is a better shortstop than Gleybar, and though Urshela is solid at the hot corner, would any GM turn down a straight trade for Devers? Nope. Frazier and Judge rule over any Red Sox corner outfielders, but in center, Verdugo at 24 > Hicks at 30. Behind the plate, NY has a guy they don't even want behind the plate, so Vazquez wins easily over Sanchez. DH is a pick-em, but here are three-year OPS in the Bronx and Beantown: Stanton .860, JD .938. Both starting rotations are full of questions marks, but the Yanks have Cole. New York also has an edge with their greatest bullpen of all-time (the one that keeps keeping them out of the World Series every postseason).

 

While some Yankee fans may strongly disagree with the above ratings, realistic fans know that every position but second base could go either way this year. The Yankees are certainly better, but they just better hope Cole stays healthy. The doormats aren't realistically that far away from the AL's heavy favorites.

 

My view is Bloom has the Sox on an upward trend and is following the plan exactly the way he said. The pitching staff has some intriguing pieces and we have some younger players in the wings who could represent a big improvement going forward. I expect 2021 to be a growth year and 2022 to be a year where we will have additional resources available to fill our holes. Let's hope our draft coupled with Bloom's effort to improve our minor league program will start to feed into the team's success.

[Bellhorn04]

The teams that are akin to the Marlins the last few years are dangerous teams because those guys are happy to be out of the minors. The Sox are full of veterans and once they’re out of contention, they’re gonna fade

 

Marlins are your big example, huh? Let's see, now.

 

2018

First half 41-57 .418

Second half 22-41 .349

 

2019

First half 33-55 .375

Second half 24-50 .324

 

You're spouting uninformed gibberish.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s the funny thing, I’m the only one to post an actual prediction of the division. Tear it apart all you want, but I put it out there. Let’s see yours

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody here or elsewhere is picking the Red Sox to win the '21 World Series, but since this is the realistic thread: are the Sox, set to open with half a lineup of platoon players, THAT much worse on screen than the favored Yankees?

 

To help answer, here are quick match-ups of the two rivals... 1B and 2nd go to Voit and DJ, no questions asked. But X is a better shortstop than Gleybar, and though Urshela is solid at the hot corner, would any GM turn down a straight trade for Devers? Nope. Frazier and Judge rule over any Red Sox corner outfielders, but in center, Verdugo at 24 > Hicks at 30. Behind the plate, NY has a guy they don't even want behind the plate, so Vazquez wins easily over Sanchez. DH is a pick-em, but here are three-year OPS in the Bronx and Beantown: Stanton .860, JD .938. Both starting rotations are full of questions marks, but the Yanks have Cole. New York also has an edge with their greatest bullpen of all-time (the one that keeps keeping them out of the World Series every postseason).

 

While some Yankee fans may strongly disagree with the above ratings, realistic fans know that every position but second base could go either way this year. The Yankees are certainly better, but they just better hope Cole stays healthy. The doormats aren't realistically that far away from the AL's heavy favorites.

 

The projections have the Yankees about 10 games better than us. I can't really disagree.

[jacksonianmarch]

Marlins are your big example, huh? Let's see, now.

 

2018

First half 41-57 .418

Second half 22-41 .349

 

2019

First half 33-55 .375

Second half 24-50 .324

 

You're spouting uninformed gibberish.

 

I said a team “like the Marlins” of years past. I didn’t mean the actual Marlins of a specific time frame. I meant a team that was full of kids. Young teams who stink will still give effort when they’re out of contention as they’re just happy to be out of the minors. The veteran teams that drop from contention drop further as there’s nothing to play for and they start to focus on saving their workloads for the following season, especially after July 31, when they cannot be dealt. It’s a theory, maybe I’m wrong. But I’d still love to see what you think the division will look like come Oct 1 Bell

[jacksonianmarch]

The projections have the Yankees about 10 games better than us. I can't really disagree.

 

The predictions are always conservative towards the middle, FYI

 

Here are the PECOTA projections for the ALE

 

Yanks 97-65

Rays 86-76

Jay’s 85-77

Sox 80-82

Orioles 66-96

[Bellhorn04]

I said a team “like the Marlins” of years past. I didn’t mean the actual Marlins of a specific time frame. I meant a team that was full of kids. Young teams who stink will still give effort when they’re out of contention as they’re just happy to be out of the minors. The veteran teams that drop from contention drop further as there’s nothing to play for and they start to focus on saving their workloads for the following season, especially after July 31, when they cannot be dealt. It’s a theory, maybe I’m wrong. But I’d still love to see what you think the division will look like come Oct 1 Bell

 

I already gave my prediction of 83 wins for the Sox. I like the Yankees to win the division. I try to be fair and realistic. Many of your recent posts about the Sox are just trash talk.

[TylerD]

I already gave my prediction of 83 wins for the Sox. I like the Yankees to win the division. I try to be fair and realistic. Many of your recent posts about the Sox are just trash talk.

 

Pretty sure he was bashing us even right after we won the World Series.

[mvp 78]

The predictions are always conservative towards the middle, FYI

 

Here are the PECOTA projections for the ALE

 

Yanks 97-65

Rays 86-76

Jay’s 85-77

Sox 80-82

Orioles 66-96

 

Hmmmmm, I wonder why jacko prefers PECOTA to the Fangraphs projection....

[jacksonianmarch]

Hmmmmm, I wonder why jacko prefers PECOTA to the Fangraphs projection....

 

Honestly haven’t looked at fangraphs yet

[mvp 78]

Here’s the funny thing, I’m the only one to post an actual prediction of the division. Tear it apart all you want, but I put it out there. Let’s see yours

 

Yanks: 93 - 69

Jays: 87 - 75

Sox: 85 - 77

Rays: 80 - 82

O's: 49 - 113 (47 - 115 is their franchise worst season)

 

It'd be really dope if the O's were so bad that they were worse than the 2003 Tigers that went 43 - 119 (the worst MLB season since the 62 Mets).

[jacksonianmarch]

I already gave my prediction of 83 wins for the Sox. I like the Yankees to win the division. I try to be fair and realistic. Many of your recent posts about the Sox are just trash talk.

 

You think they’re gonna be over .500 with this squad in this division?

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, we’re in the worst of the winter with most of the nation frozen. The pandemic has limited travel, so those of us who rely on a getaway are stuck to wallow in the cold. Football is over, pitchers and catchers report, yet regular season games are not close. Some good baseball banter may be helpful for all.

[mvp 78]

Honestly haven’t looked at fangraphs yet

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

Yankees: 96 wins

Jays: 89 wins

Sox: 87 wins

Rays: 83 wins

O's: 67 wins

[mvp 78]

Guys, we’re in the worst of the winter with most of the nation frozen. The pandemic has limited travel, so those of us who rely on a getaway are stuck to wallow in the cold. Football is over, pitchers and catchers report, yet regular season games are not close. Some good baseball banter may be helpful for all.

 

My pool was 86 this weekend.

[jacksonianmarch]

My pool was 86 this weekend.

 

Dick!!!!! Lol, good for you

[Bellhorn04]

You think they’re gonna be over .500 with this squad in this division?

 

My pick of 83 is in line with all the projections.

[mvp 78]

Dick!!!!! Lol, good for you

 

After my snowblower died on me in 2019, it was the last straw. New England winters aren't worth it. Spring kinda sucks. The only good time of the year was June - October.

 

It is wild having kids baseball start right after Xmas though.

[jacksonianmarch]

After my snowblower died on me in 2019, it was the last straw. New England winters aren't worth it. Spring kinda sucks. The only good time of the year was June - October.

 

It is wild having kids baseball start right after Xmas though.

 

My kids are little and family is in New England, so I’ve no prayer of moving to the warmth for another 20 years. But snowbirding will be in the cards once the kids go off to school!

[mvp 78]

My kids are little and family is in New England, so I’ve no prayer of moving to the warmth for another 20 years. But snowbirding will be in the cards once the kids go off to school!

 

Our family is split between MA and FL, so transitioning was pretty easy. Plus, my wife and kids HATED the winter.

 

Because of the pandemic, we haven't been back North since we moved. There really isn't much that I miss about New England at the moment.

[jacksonianmarch]

Our family is split between MA and FL, so transitioning was pretty easy. Plus, my wife and kids HATED the winter.

 

Because of the pandemic, we haven't been back North since we moved. There really isn't much that I miss about New England at the moment.

 

You can’t beat New England from May to October. And with the warmer fall, even up to December. I’m beginning to venture to the outdoors far more these past few years, so when the freeze hit and the snow covered everything, it made for a far more miserable winter!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is this realistic? Fangraphs odds to "make the playoffs"... https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds:

 

Red Sox are 47%... that's almost a coin-flip... but not even that is as unrealistic as some of the teams they're far ahead of: Washington at 24.6% (with three top starters and Soto), A's at 21.8% Tampa at only 18.6%, Cleveland at 17.4% and every club in the NL Central. Have at it.

[mvp 78]

You can’t beat New England from May to October. And with the warmer fall, even up to December. I’m beginning to venture to the outdoors far more these past few years, so when the freeze hit and the snow covered everything, it made for a far more miserable winter!

 

People say that all the time. It's fool's gold IMO.

[mvp 78]

Is this realistic? Fangraphs odds to "make the playoffs"... https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds:

 

Red Sox are 47%... that's almost a coin-flip... but not even that is as unrealistic as some of the teams they're far ahead of: Washington at 24.6% (with three top starters and Soto), A's at 21.8% Tampa at only 18.6%, Cleveland at 17.4% and every club in the NL Central. Have at it.

 

They'll be better than Tampa and Cleveland. I think the 47% is indicative of expanded playoffs, rather than the strength of the ballclub.