A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

But you're posting it in the "A Realistic View at 2019 Part I" thread?

 

I looked for "A Realistic View at 2021, Part I" but Moon hasn't got around to it. He's too busy crunching new OPS numbers for everyone based on where they bat in the order.

[Slasher9]

When did Trey Ball ever have good trade value though?

 

3 minutes before he was drafted.

[notin]

actually if the Sox/DD believe that Jarren's trade value is at it's peak they should pull the trigger now. it is more likely he is lars or trey then it is he is mookie or xander.

 

I guess it depends how much weight the Sox put on his .471 BABIP...

[Slasher9]

I guess it depends how much weight the Sox put on his .471 BABIP...

 

shhhhhh. dont tell other GM's!!!

[mvp 78]

I guess it depends how much weight the Sox put on his .471 BABIP...

 

He hits the ball hard and should have a higher BABIP due to his speed, but the worse defense in MiLB is helping his batting average a lot.

[notin]

He hits the ball hard and should have a higher BABIP due to his speed, but the worse defense in MiLB is helping his batting average a lot.

 

I do expect a better BABIP from a LD/GB hitter with speed. But .471?

 

That said, even if it was 100 points lower, he’s still hitting .310...

[notin]

shhhhhh. dont tell other GM's!!!

 

 

Too late. I tweeted it.

[vegasbob]

Or, some non stat geek will argue that the lack of team chemistry doomed us from the start. (Apparently, Kimbrel and Kelly were essential clubhouse pieces.)

 

LOL

 

Kelly might have been a BP favorite with his peers with a sense of humor. Plenty of Dodger fans laughing at him now. I don't get the same feel for Kimbrel as a great clubhouse guy. I suspect he was quiet, pitched the 9th with a clean inning, with a lead, and went home. No direct knowledge of Craig, but a guess.

[mvp 78]

I do expect a better BABIP from a LD/GB hitter with speed. But .471?

 

That said, even if it was 100 points lower, he’s still hitting .310...

 

I should have bolded the "a lot" and made the font as big as possible. He's been a little lucky, but the bad defense is a real big reason his BABIP is so high.

[moonslav59]

Watch it now Moon - that could be me you are talking about. I consider you a non-traditional stat geek! lol

 

I expected a response from the non traditional traditionalist.

[notin]

I should have bolded the "a lot" and made the font as big as possible. He's been a little lucky, but the bad defense is a real big reason his BABIP is so high.

 

 

Then... so far the buzz around Duran’s hitting has been his extremely high BA. But if his BA is not carried by power but instead by an extremely high BABIP, which in turn is inflated by shoddy defense, isn’t this guy an extreme “sell high” candidate? How good will he be against good defenses? I’m not even talking about improved pitching yet, either. Just good defensive players...

[Kimmi]

My point was we came pretty close to a 24-2 or 22-4 run, which rivals last year's best run.

 

IMO, I think this team still has a big run in them. We can also win back games slowly.

 

I know. I was agreeing with you.

 

The Sox will likely go on a big run too, but it will still take some time to make up the deficit, unless the Yankees go on a losing run at the same time.

[MADSTORK]

3 minutes before he was drafted.

 

LOL

Just think, best player on the board that year at #7 was AMeadows

Thanks Ben

[cp176]

I expected a response from the non traditional traditionalist.

 

That would be my friend. i've been found out.

[notin]

LOL

Just think, best player on the board that year at #7 was AMeadows

Thanks Ben

 

The Sox need outfielders?

[moonslav59]

Next 16 games in 15 days:

 

KCR Sale

KCR Porcello

TBR Price

TBR Weber/ TBR(2) Shawaryn

TBR ERod

TEX Sale

TEX Porcello

TEX Price

TEX Weber or Shawaryn

@BAL ERod

@BAL Sale

@BAL Porcello

@MN Price

@MN Eovaldi ?

@MN ERod

OFF DAY

Then, home for TOR (3), CWS (3), NYY (2)

 

[Hitch]

Next 16 games in 15 days:

 

KCR Sale

KCR Porcello

TBR Price

TBR Weber/ TBR(2) Shawaryn

TBR ERod

TEX Sale

TEX Porcello

TEX Price

TEX Weber or Shawaryn

@BAL ERod

@BAL Sale

@BAL Porcello

@MN Price

@MN Eovaldi ?

@MN ERod

OFF DAY

Then, home for TOR (3), CWS (3), NYY (2)

 

 

If we are still at .500 after those games we may well have problems. Really need to put the hammer down and build the win column through this run.

[Slasher9]

LOL

Just think, best player on the board that year at #7 was AMeadows

Thanks Ben

 

name 1 GM that has never missed.....i'll wait.....

[notin]

Next 16 games in 15 days:

 

KCR Sale

KCR Porcello

TBR Price

TBR Weber/ TBR(2) Shawaryn

TBR ERod

TEX Sale

TEX Porcello

TEX Price

TEX Weber or Shawaryn

@BAL ERod

@BAL Sale

@BAL Porcello

@MN Price

@MN Eovaldi ?

@MN ERod

OFF DAY

Then, home for TOR (3), CWS (3), NYY (2)

 

 

 

That’s too many Ryan Weber starts for my liking...

[Slasher9]

That’s too many Ryan Weber starts for my liking...

 

me? i would start shawaryn final game in KC and push porc to TBR. give Porc + Price 1 extra day of rest.

[notin]

me? i would start shawaryn final game in KC and push porc to TBR. give Porc + Price 1 extra day of rest.

 

 

I could support that. Give Shawaryn a shot and see what he has. Weber has had multiple chances over the years...

[OH FOY]

Looks like the book is out on Chavis, in how to pitch him. 21K's in last 50 at bats, hitting .180 last 15 days. Got to make adjustments. This is the Majors kid. Edited June 5, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

That’s too many Ryan Weber starts for my liking...

 

We couldlimit it to one, if we go with Shawaryn vs TEX

[moonslav59]

Looks like the book is out on Chavis, in how to pitch him. 21K's in last 50 at bats, hitting .180 last 15 days. Got to make adjustments. This is the Majors kid.

 

Let's hope he figure it out and quickly!

 

I'm not sue a Holt-Nunez combo can get it done, although Nunez seems to be improving.

[notin]

We couldlimit it to one, if we go with Shawaryn vs TEX

 

Still more than my liking...

[kenmeister]

If we are still at .500 after those games we may well have problems. Really need to put the hammer down and build the win column through this run.

 

I think this team will oscillate between .500 and .530 the rest of the way. Maybe they reach a high water mark of .550 for few shining days. Of course Eovaldi could come back and be awesome, or they could make a trade that changes everything.

[Bellhorn04]

I think this team will oscillate between .500 and .530 the rest of the way. Maybe they reach a high water mark of .550 for few shining days. Of course Eovaldi could come back and be awesome, or they could make a trade that changes everything.

 

Very pessimistic.

[kenmeister]

Very pessimistic.

 

The thread title is "realistic view". I'm calling it as I see it.

[Bellhorn04]

The thread title is "realistic view". I'm calling it as I see it.

 

I understand. Me too.

[Maxbialystock]

Next 16 games in 15 days:

 

KCR Sale

KCR Porcello

TBR Price

TBR Weber/ TBR(2) Shawaryn

TBR ERod

TEX Sale

TEX Porcello

TEX Price

TEX Weber or Shawaryn

@BAL ERod

@BAL Sale

@BAL Porcello

@MN Price

@MN Eovaldi ?

@MN ERod

OFF DAY

Then, home for TOR (3), CWS (3), NYY (2)

 

 

I think the rotation and lineup can handle that, but worry about the bullpen going 17 games (including last night) in 16 days, especially if the rotation has some bad starts.