A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS leaders

 

Last 14 Days

1.082 Bogey

1.019 JBJ

.994 Devers

.974 Pearce

.850 Betts

.841 Vaz

.767 Moreland

.747 JD

.689 Chavis

.679 Beni

.583 Holt (12 PAs)

.576 Leon

.524 Nunez

 

Last 28 Days

1.039 Devers

.987 Bogey

.965 Vaz

.957 Moreland

.934 JD

.850 JBJ

.834 Betts

.826 Chavis

.761 Beni

.676 Pearce

.653 Leon

.611 Nunez

.583 Holt (12 PAs)

 

Last 365 Days (502+ PAs unless noted)

.990 JD

.967 Betts

.899 Bogey

.871 Chavis (154 PAs)

.811 Lin (59)

.807 Devers

.789 Beni

.750 Pearce (263)

.744 Vaz (283)

.725 JBJ

.722 Moreland (496)

.709 Holt (315)

.662 Nunez (402)

.516 Leon (274)

 

 

While we had 6 players with 502+ PAs over the last 365 days (and 7 with 496+), the Yanks had only 2: Torres & Gardner. Here are their OPS over the past calender year:

 

.972 Voit (389)

.882 Stanton (498)

.882 Judge (354)

.845 Gregorius (359)

.832 Hicks (474)

.816 Andujar (479)

.809 Torres

.807 LeMahieu (217)

.762 Sanchez (338)

.721 Gardner

.643 Bird (339)

.590 Romine (293)

[Bellhorn04]

We won last year with basically the same pen, but with a very shaky Kimbrel.

 

We will likely have Eovaldi in the pen again this fall plus a summer acquisition or two.

 

(Note: I do think we need to improve our pen to have a good shot at winning it all.)

 

Kimbrel had a good (not great) regular season last year. It does leave a hole in the pen not having him or replacing him.

[S5Dewey]

We won last year with basically the same pen, but with a very shaky Kimbrel.

 

We will likely have Eovaldi in the pen again this fall plus a summer acquisition or two.

 

(Note: I do think we need to improve our pen to have a good shot at winning it all.)

 

Sometimes my memory fails me and I'm certain that if this is one of those times I'll be corrected on it posthaste, but...

 

As I remember the post-season much of the success of our bullpen was because our starters did a lot of bullpen duty. Bringing in Evoldi, Price, Sale and Porcillo for short BP stints can work well for a short series at the end of a season but it's not a sustainable way to manage a pitching staff.

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel had a good (not great) regular season last year. It does leave a hole in the pen not having him or replacing him.

 

I agree and am all for making a move or two to strengthen our pen.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes my memory fails me and I'm certain that if this is one of those times I'll be corrected on it posthaste, but...

 

As I remember the post-season much of the success of our bullpen was because our starters did a lot of bullpen duty. Bringing in Evoldi, Price, Sale and Porcillo for short BP stints can work well for a short series at the end of a season but it's not a sustainable way to manage a pitching staff.

 

It's not uncommon for starters to pitch some relief during the playoffs, especially the 5th starter, who may not even start any games.

 

Yes, our starters played a key role in our post season success, but several of our pen arms did very well.

 

ERA Pitcher WHIP (IP)

0.00 Hembree 1.07 (4.2)

0.79 J Kelly 0.71 (11.1)

1.04 Barnes 1.04 (8.2)

1.04 Brasier 1.38 (8.2)

 

5.91 Kimbrel 1.59 (10.2)

45.00 Workman 10.00 (1.0)

 

SP'ers (as SP & RP)

1.61 Eovaldi 0.81 (22.1)

3.46 D Price 1.15 (26.0)

3.52 Porcello 1.11 (15.1)

4.11 C Sale 1.24 (15.1)

6.30 E Rod 1.10 (10.0)

 

Those top 4 RP'ers pitched 33.1 IP and allowed 3 ERs (0.81 ERA) and only 18 hits.

 

16 BBs were worrisome, but they K'd 32.

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, you're lucky Eovaldi, our MVP 2Bman and our HR leader are on the IL.

 

You’re kidding me complaining about injuries, right?

[YastrzemskI]

Sometimes my memory fails me and I'm certain that if this is one of those times I'll be corrected on it posthaste, but...

 

As I remember the post-season much of the success of our bullpen was because our starters did a lot of bullpen duty. Bringing in Evoldi, Price, Sale and Porcillo for short BP stints can work well for a short series at the end of a season but it's not a sustainable way to manage a pitching staff.

 

No question about it. Cora’s managerial style was win today and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow and it worked. We’re Champs! Kimbrel was good enough, Kelly and Eovaldi has great moments. If the goal every year is to win a WS, then excuse my lingo but they f***ing need to zero in and focus on this like hawks. We have a good team here with one clear weakness. Deal with the goddamn weakness. I mean, s***'s gotta get done no matter what. Wins come first, period.

 

The question now is how long will management look the other way before fixing this? Part of me wants another s*** show performance tonight so they can really get on the horn and make it happen.. and I’m not just talking about ONE move. I just feel that we need to add two reliable arms by the first week of June. This team has been treading water all season long and I think we’re all sick of it.

[moonslav59]

You’re kidding me complaining about injuries, right?

 

Yes, of course I am.

[moonslav59]

Swings from 2018 to 2019

 

OPS

-.492 Pearce

 

-.194 Betts

-.190 Nunez

-.123 JD

-.117 JBJ

 

-.055 Beni

+.012 Bogey

 

+.098 Leon

+.112 Moreland

 

+.158 Devers

 

+.300 Vaz

 

ERA

+2.79 Velazquez

+2.67 Eovaldi

+2.37 Brasier

+2.08 C Sale

+2.08 Thornburg

 

+1.22 ERod

 

+0.13 Porcello

-0.75 Price

 

-1.05 Workman

 

-1.32 Hembree

-1.57 Barnes

-1.63 Walden

[dgalehouse]

After doing a good job of bouncing back from a dismal start to the season , the Sox have slipped back into mediocrity the last couple of weeks. I think it is important for them to make a statement in this series. Although it is still relatively early in the season , we can't afford to fall any further behind the Yankees. It will be tough to catch them when they get their A - team back .

[kenmeister]

Swings from 2018 to 2019

 

OPS

-.492 Pearce

 

-.194 Betts

-.190 Nunez

-.123 JD

-.117 JBJ

 

-.055 Beni

+.012 Bogey

 

+.098 Leon

+.112 Moreland

 

+.158 Devers

 

+.300 Vaz

 

ERA

+2.79 Velazquez

+2.67 Eovaldi

+2.37 Brasier

+2.08 C Sale

+2.08 Thornburg

 

+1.22 ERod

 

+0.13 Porcello

-0.75 Price

 

-1.05 Workman

 

-1.32 Hembree

-1.57 Barnes

-1.63 Walden

 

Wow very helpful post! Go Vazquez!

[moonslav59]

Wow very helpful post! Go Vazquez!

 

I was thinking, "Go JD, Betts & JBJ!"

[moonslav59]

After doing a good job of bouncing back from a dismal start to the season , the Sox have slipped back into mediocrity the last couple of weeks. I think it is important for them to make a statement in this series. Although it is still relatively early in the season , we can't afford to fall any further behind the Yankees. It will be tough to catch them when they get their A - team back .

 

I usually don't get all pumped up over a series in May, and I'm pretty confident we can, at worst,make the wild card, but I do think this is a big series.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree and am all for making a move or two to strengthen our pen.

 

Hey, listen up. It's not business, it's personal. It's not business, it's personal. I'm still mad at Kimbrel for his rotten postseason pitching, for being a prima donna, and for his unrealistic salary demands. So I don't really care if you guys say he could help this year. Think of his agent as Paulie, leave the gun, and take the cannoli.

[moonslav59]

Hey, listen up. It's not business, it's personal. It's not business, it's personal. I'm still mad at Kimbrel for his rotten postseason pitching, for being a prima donna, and for his unrealistic salary demands. So I don't really care if you guys say he could help this year. Think of his agent as Paulie, leave the gun, and take the cannoli.

 

I've never said I was even remotely interested in signing Kimbrel.

 

It would be a horrible move on many fronts.

[notin]

I've never said I was even remotely interested in signing Kimbrel.

 

It would be a horrible move on many fronts.

 

I actually would have signed Kimbrel over Eovaldi. The only thing that keeps Kimbrel from showing up for work is contract demands. Eovaldi, on the other hand, has a scary health history...

[vegasbob]

I'm so ready for this Yankee series on many fronts : When done , it will be June; no longer "early". Should have cracked the 30 win barrier, with 108 still out there in a galaxy far, far away.

JBJr has started his hot hitting streak. Hope he gets the winning hit in 4 straight to push pie at NYY fans faces

The outcome will influence just how likely we are to catch the NYY'ers

DD can better assess just what he does need to do to solidify the BP, setting up some targets for deadline trades

Want to see how many players post game quotes including : " I/we just need to be a little better. I/we am/are working hard on it"

Devers get 4 HR's, and JDM wakes up with 3 to the RF porch.

 

Other wishes for the next 4 games from the peanut gallery ???

Edited May 30, 2019 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

I actually would have signed Kimbrel over Eovaldi. The only thing that keeps Kimbrel from showing up for work is contract demands. Eovaldi, on the other hand, has a scary health history...

 

Kimbrel is on the decline.

[notin]

Kimbrel is on the decline.

 

But as a lesser used player, his decline might be slower. And he’s only 2 years older than Eovaldi...

[moonslav59]

But as a lesser used player, his decline might be slower. And he’s only 2 years older than Eovaldi...

 

Well, in theory, we could use Eovaldi less, possible as an Andrew Miller type, but that would mean Weber or Johnson would have to be a decent 5th starter.

 

Come playoff time, I'd rather have Eovaldi than Kimbrel. Perhaps during the season, Kimbrel might have worked better.

[notin]

 

Come playoff time, I'd rather have Eovaldi than Kimbrel.

 

Unless Eovaldi is injured...

[moonslav59]

Unless Eovaldi is injured...

 

True, but Kimbrel is no sure bet either- not healthwise, but performancewise.

[Kimmi]

I actually would have signed Kimbrel over Eovaldi. The only thing that keeps Kimbrel from showing up for work is contract demands. Eovaldi, on the other hand, has a scary health history...

 

Not me. I would 100% sign Eovaldi over Kimbrel in that situation every time.

[moonslav59]

Not me. I would 100% sign Eovaldi over Kimbrel in that situation every time.

 

Me, too, despite the injury concerns.

[dgalehouse]

Signing Eovaldi rather than Kimbrel was hardly a slam dunk. It seems to have been based largely on Nate's World Series heroics, while Kimbrel struggled . But that is a pretty small sample size. Looking at the bigger picture, Nate is a 29 year old who has a career record of 44 - 53 , with an ERA of 4.21 and a history of arm injuries. Craig is ( arguably? ) the premier closer of his era , 31 years old , healthy , with an unparalleled career ERA of 1.91 . Hopefully Nate can return from the I.L. soon and contribute to another pennant . Hopefully.

[moonslav59]

Signing Eovaldi rather than Kimbrel was hardly a slam dunk. It seems to have been based largely on Nate's World Series heroics, while Kimbrel struggled . But that is a pretty small sample size. Looking at the bigger picture, Nate is a 29 year old who has a career record of 44 - 53 , with an ERA of 4.21 and a history of arm injuries. Craig is ( arguably? ) the premier closer of his era , 31 years old , healthy , with an unparalleled career ERA of 1.91 . Hopefully Nate can return from the I.L. soon and contribute to another pennant . Hopefully.

 

I can see both sides of the debate, but I think they had more faith in the pen and having $4-6M to beef it up over the summer than going with Johnson, Velazquez and Weber as our 5th starter.

 

You're right, it was no slam dunk.

 

Once could argue the same about Pearce, but at least he's had 3-4 years of great success against lefties and had done pretty good against righties over the last couple years. With Moreland always getting hurt, I can see why we signed him, too.

 

BTW, we had more choices than Kimbrel or Eovaldi (and Pearce.)

[moonslav59]

Some selected ex-Sox 2019 numbers:

 

Pitcher..... ERA/WHIP/K-9 (IP)

Ty Buttrey 1.27/1.06/11.1 (28.1)

F Montas 2.81/ 1.20/ 9.3 (64.0)

Ja. Beeks 2.83/ 1.28/ 8.7 (41.1)

J. Lester 3.59/ 1.39/ 8.5 (52.2)

Buchholz 6.57/ 1.51/ 4.4 (24.2)

Joe Kelly 8.35/1.91/8.8 (18.1)

 

Hitter.... OPS/ HR/ RBI

A Rizzo .993/ 15/ 42

Moncada .820/ 10/ 34

M Margot .579/ 2/ 10

T Shaw .548/ 4/ 8

Swihart .487/ 3/ 9 (w AZ only/ .550 overall)

[mvp 78]

DBacks Twitter is not happy with Swi.

 

If Swihart doesn’t start performing he will be DFA’d

 

Why is Blake Swihart still on this team he’s worse than John Ryan Murphy

 

Swihart, good gatch. Lol. At least he makes up for dropped fly balls with his fantastic offense.

 

I am so sick of Blake Swihart

 

Blake Swihart finna get killed on D’backs Twitter in 5... 4... 3...

 

Blake Swihart has no idea what a strike is.

 

.@RedSox Do you want Swihart back? #Dbacks #RedSoxNation

 

Seriously how much would the Dbacks lose by dropping Swihart and bring up Yasmany?

 

Why is Blake Swihart still getting starts

[Jasonbay44]

DBacks Twitter is not happy with Swi.

 

If Swihart doesn’t start performing he will be DFA’d

 

Why is Blake Swihart still on this team he’s worse than John Ryan Murphy

 

Swihart, good gatch. Lol. At least he makes up for dropped fly balls with his fantastic offense.

 

I am so sick of Blake Swihart

 

Blake Swihart finna get killed on D’backs Twitter in 5... 4... 3...

 

Blake Swihart has no idea what a strike is.

 

.@RedSox Do you want Swihart back? #Dbacks #RedSoxNation

 

Seriously how much would the Dbacks lose by dropping Swihart and bring up Yasmany?

 

Why is Blake Swihart still getting starts

 

He's been absolutely horrendous in Arizona. I guess a change of scenery wasn't all he needed. I think its safe to say he's a bust.

[mvp 78]

He's been absolutely horrendous in Arizona. I guess a change of scenery wasn't all he needed. I think its safe to say he's a bust.

 

He's had a couple of good throws from RF showcasing his arm, but that's about it.