A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

How important is the upcoming four-game series against the Texas Rangers?

 

Every game is important to a team on the periphery of a Wild Card spot.

[vegasbob]

Updated Sox OPS

.899 JD

.898 Bogey

.859 Moreland

.847 Devers

.840 Betts

.804 Chavis

.791 Vaz

.774 Beni

.691 Holt

.638 Leon

.618 JBJ

.560 Nunez

.503 Pearce

 

1.200 Marco

.573 Lin

.400 Travis

.243 Pedey

 

#1 and # 3 are not available to play. #6 is riding his number from an amazing first 3 weeks, not so much since then. Betts and Beni, can flash those numbers all night but they do not reflect actual useful productivity. Of the last 4 only Marco is still a hopeful prospect to fill a position (2B). The other three are no factors going forward.. The bottom 5 in the main list are utility/bench/ specialty catchers and players

who have limited upside, if any. I really think DD has some serious work to do with the roster and should not be influenced by chasing the second wild card. If they earn it, great. If not find a way to reload at least two serious prospects.

[vegasbob]

Pawtucket will have 3 Sox rehabbing today, Brian Johnson, Tyler Thorburg, and Steven Wright.

 

Now there is an exciting trio for the second half.

[moonslav59]

We went into a scoring slump and have injuries to some of our chief run producers. I am not as naturally opttimistic as you, especially since I haven't seen that fire and desire to win that a club needs to be competitive. There is time to recover and win the second wild card but it doesn't look like we will overtake either the Yannkees or the Rays. They are both good teams and even if we catch fire, making up 7 or 8 games is difficult to do.

 

My optimism is being severely tested.

[moonslav59]

Now there is an exciting trio for the second half.

 

Maybe one can give us something meaningful. Add one to Eovaldi's return, and we may get the boost we need.

[moonslav59]

Maybe one can give us something meaningful. Add one to Eovaldi's return, and we may get the boost we need.

 

Ooops...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/nathan-eovaldi-suffers-setback.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[oldtimer]

Every game is important to a team on the periphery of a Wild Card spot.

 

One has to wonder if the idea of resting healthy players and often putting less than our best available team in the game will be looked upon as smart if the team doesn't even make a wild card berth. Having well rested player eliminated from contention is kind of ironic. I know its a tradeoff, but we are digging ourselves a hole too deep, kind of like a bridge too far.

[moonslav59]

One has to wonder if the idea of resting healthy players and often putting less than our best available team in the game will be looked upon as smart if the team doesn't even make a wild card berth. Having well rested player eliminated from contention is kind of ironic. I know its a tradeoff, but we are digging ourselves a hole too deep, kind of like a bridge too far.

 

We'll see.

 

I don't think Beni on the bench was for rest.

[oldtimer]

We really aren't producing at the plate accoring to Cora after losing 3 of 4 at home against the Rays. In those games, we had no JDM, only 2 AB;s from Moreland and had a differnt batting order in each of thed 4 games. Beni didn't play in 2 of those games and Devers sat out 1. We were facing the Rays pitching and they are good, but we have had a number of guys slumping who we have to look to for production. Mookie has been off, so has Beni, Devers and Chavis were essentially black holes, while the bottom of the order in general did fairly well.

 

Clearly we need our experienced pro guys back in the lineup ASAP. Maybe they can bring stability and get the young guys going. Bogaerts has been about the only reliable bat and even he will be shutdown from time to time. In my view, we need to go out and win the Texas series to stay in the race. They are a hot team right now. Losing 3 games to them would be hard to recover from.

[jacksonianmarch]

Windows end due to lack of depth. JD and Moreland get hurt and all of a sudden, your lineup has no punch and rolls over vs good pitching. Your great hitters are currently only good. The rest of the lineup isn’t good enough to step up. Your minor league system doesn’t have enough reserve to withstand the blow. Your GM didn’t find enough big league capable reserves to step in. When your team costs as much as it does, getting good depth is hard. You don’t have the money and since your team essentially returned everyone, most fringe players won’t sign on because of lack of opportunity.

 

Also, with JD being only good this year and now with a back issue, there is no way in hell he opts out.

[OH FOY]

Every game is important to a team on the periphery of a Wild Card spot.

 

Especially when your playing a team that's head to head with you for that Wildcard spot. They have a 1game lead at this point.

[jacksonianmarch]

Especially when your playing a team that's head to head with you for that Wildcard spot.

 

The dark horse for the spot is right behind you in Oakland. Texas is a paper tiger.

[OH FOY]

Agree, Texas Pitching stinks, you cant go all season with bad Pitching. On the Road not a good team either. That's where pitching shows up. Edited June 10, 2019 by OH FOY!

[jacksonianmarch]

Agree, Texas Pitching stinks, you cant go all season with bad Pitching. On the Road not a good team either. That's where pitching shows up.

 

And if Manaea can return close to what he was, the A's are going to return a top flight starter in time for the stretch run. The A's have done this before. They are either god awful all year or they start out average and then the balls start flying once the weather warms. They are gonna go on another run this year, especially once the Mariners deal off their useable parts and the Angels fold like the s*** team they are.

 

One of the bigger things to look at is the divisional teams that are going to finish the year.

 

I have been touting the Jays as a s***** team, but after watching them play the Yanks, they are gonna be a good spoiler as the season goes along. With Biggio and Guerrero there and with Bichette likely not far behind, they wont be the standard terrible club selling off all their parts. They are going to be the squad with a plucky offense who deals off their starting pitching. They will not be a bag of loose diarrhea like some of the squads will be.

 

The O's will suck the rest of the way and likely will suck worse once they deal off Cashner and maybe Cobb (if he can stay healthy).

 

The Angels and Mariners will finish the season as terrible teams. This will allow the AL West clubs to pad their win totals. If Texas falls out as I expect them too, they will become seller too. Their entire pitching staff (outside of Lance Lynn) is on one year deals, so their bad pitching minus Mike Minor will be even worse. This will mean that come the final two months, the A's and Astros will have 3 teams in division to just rout.

 

The White Sox have talent and are playing well. They will probably try to keep Abreu and make a run for next year. They will be tough in the ALC. Detroit and KC are abysmal and will get worse. The Guardians and Twins will go for it.

 

Looking at the divisions like this will help handicap the races. If Texas fades, the A's will have the best shot at picking up garbage wins with 3 teams sinking. For us in the ALE, we have the Orioles and Jays, although the Jays going through their rebuild got better when they brought up their kids. The O's are the only easy win. In the AL Central, the Tigers and Royals will be easy wins with the White Sox being a Jays +1 year team likely not making the playoffs but progressing through a rebuild and likely not to sink. The only WC2 team right now that has two other contenders in division is the sox and they have to play the Rays and Yanks a bunch more. Their road is toughest at this point

[Slasher9]

Also, with JD being only good this year and now with a back issue, there is no way in hell he opts out.

 

JD was never going to opt out this year. after next season is a different story.

[Maxbialystock]

One has to wonder if the idea of resting healthy players and often putting less than our best available team in the game will be looked upon as smart if the team doesn't even make a wild card berth. Having well rested player eliminated from contention is kind of ironic. I know its a tradeoff, but we are digging ourselves a hole too deep, kind of like a bridge too far.

 

All due respect, but you and I are watching different games. What I see is a lineup that can hit so-so pitching and can't hit good pitching and a rotation that has basically two good starters--Sale and Price. In this last series vs the Rays, their 3 good starters went 8 innings (Chironos) with 0 runs, 7.2 innings (Yarborough) with 1 earned run, and 6 innings (Snell) with 1 earned run. Price started on Saturday and won because he pitched well. Not so Erod, Porcello, and Smith.

 

None of the above has anything to do with resting lineup players--which I am fine with and, more importantly, hardly see it as the grave mistake you do. And, FWIW, the Sox have played 66 games to date; our three best players(with no injuries) are Betts, Devers, and Bogaerts, and they have played 65, 64, and 63 games. JDM has played 56 because of his back, Beni 58 for various reasons, Moreland 47 (time on IL), etc.

 

Speaking of injuries, the Yankees have had far more to their best lineup players and it hasn't bothered them.

 

 

 

I happen to think the hitting is fine, but not against excellent pitching, which, by the way, the Sox don't have. It's that simple and absolutely not about rearranging the deck chairs.

[harmony]

And if Manaea can return close to what he was, the A's are going to return a top flight starter in time for the stretch run. The A's have done this before. They are either god awful all year or they start out average and then the balls start flying once the weather warms. They are gonna go on another run this year, especially once the Mariners deal off their useable parts and the Angels fold like the s*** team they are.

 

One of the bigger things to look at is the divisional teams that are going to finish the year.

 

I have been touting the Jays as a s***** team, but after watching them play the Yanks, they are gonna be a good spoiler as the season goes along. With Biggio and Guerrero there and with Bichette likely not far behind, they wont be the standard terrible club selling off all their parts. They are going to be the squad with a plucky offense who deals off their starting pitching. They will not be a bag of loose diarrhea like some of the squads will be.

 

The O's will suck the rest of the way and likely will suck worse once they deal off Cashner and maybe Cobb (if he can stay healthy).

 

The Angels and Mariners will finish the season as terrible teams. This will allow the AL West clubs to pad their win totals. If Texas falls out as I expect them too, they will become seller too. Their entire pitching staff (outside of Lance Lynn) is on one year deals, so their bad pitching minus Mike Minor will be even worse. This will mean that come the final two months, the A's and Astros will have 3 teams in division to just rout.

 

The White Sox have talent and are playing well. They will probably try to keep Abreu and make a run for next year. They will be tough in the ALC. Detroit and KC are abysmal and will get worse. The Guardians and Twins will go for it.

 

Looking at the divisions like this will help handicap the races. If Texas fades, the A's will have the best shot at picking up garbage wins with 3 teams sinking. For us in the ALE, we have the Orioles and Jays, although the Jays going through their rebuild got better when they brought up their kids. The O's are the only easy win. In the AL Central, the Tigers and Royals will be easy wins with the White Sox being a Jays +1 year team likely not making the playoffs but progressing through a rebuild and likely not to sink. The only WC2 team right now that has two other contenders in division is the sox and they have to play the Rays and Yanks a bunch more. Their road is toughest at this point

For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects the Blue Jays and Orioles to finish a combined 80 games below .500 while projecting the Rangers, Angels and Mariners to finish a combined 27 games below .500:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

FiveThirtyEight projects the Blue Jays and Orioles to finish a combined 84 games below .500 while projecting the Rangers, Angels and Mariners a combined 34 games below .500:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The top AL East teams will be padding their win totals.

[jacksonianmarch]

Those projections are almost entirely based on the Orioles and the AL west ones are horribly wrong. The Mariners were 13-2 at one point and have since gone 15-39 and have already traded off a piece in Bruce. They’re gonna deal off more.

 

The O’s are going to be historically bad. There’s no avoiding that. But you can only play them 18 times. It’s not like you get an extra 5 games vs them due to how s***** they are. The frequency at which a division rival plays each other is set.

 

My bet Harmony is as follows.

 

Orioles 50-112

Toronto 65-97

 

Seattle 60-102

Angels 75-87

Texas 76-86

[Maxbialystock]

Those projections are almost entirely based on the Orioles and the AL west ones are horribly wrong. The Mariners were 13-2 at one point and have since gone 15-39 and have already traded off a piece in Bruce. They’re gonna deal off more.

 

The O’s are going to be historically bad. There’s no avoiding that. But you can only play them 18 times. It’s not like you get an extra 5 games vs them due to how s***** they are. The frequency at which a division rival plays each other is set.

 

My bet Harmony is as follows.

 

Orioles 50-112

Toronto 65-97

 

Seattle 60-102

Angels 75-87

Texas 76-86

 

Fearless prediction.

[harmony]

Those projections are almost entirely based on the Orioles and the AL west ones are horribly wrong. The Mariners were 13-2 at one point and have since gone 15-39 and have already traded off a piece in Bruce. They’re gonna deal off more.

The 2019 Seattle Mariners have weak pitching (especially from the bullpen) and historically bad defense ... the defense can be downright comical:

 

 

The Mariners will likely continue to trade surplus hitters who have contributed to a team OPS+ of 110 (as points of reference, the Yankees have a team OPS+ of 106 and the Red Sox 102). Seattle leads the majors in home runs and the next to be traded may be AL home run leader Edwin Encarnacion, who on Sunday reached the 400-homer plateau for his career.

 

Seattle fans experienced the transient joy of the unanticipated 13-2 start but the overall 28-41 record is in line with the preseason expectations of this "stepped-back" year. The Mariners are neither as good as their 13-2 start nor as bad as the 12-37 swoon that followed.

[moonslav59]

If we can't beat out Texas and Oakland, then we don't deserve a place at the table, and this team is not what I thought they were.

 

We have some budget space to make a move or two (RP? RP? SP?). It was a sad weekend, but there's a lot of games left to be played, and we're right in the thick of the playoff hunt despite playing so badly, so far.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The 2019 Seattle Mariners have weak pitching (especially from the bullpen) and historically bad defense ... the defense can be downright comical:

 

 

The Mariners will likely continue to trade surplus hitters who have contributed to a team OPS+ of 110 (as points of reference, the Yankees have a team OPS+ of 106 and the Red Sox 102). Seattle leads the majors in home runs and the next to be traded may be AL home run leader Edwin Encarnacion, who on Sunday reached the 400-homer plateau for his career.

 

Seattle fans experienced the transient joy of the unanticipated 13-2 start but the overall 28-41 record is in line with the preseason expectations of this "stepped-back" year. The Mariners are neither as good as their 13-2 start nor as bad as the 12-37 swoon that followed.

 

They start dealing off their guys and they'll be worse than their 12-37 swoon. EE is gonna move. I expect the M's to move Haniger as well once his nut heals. If Gonzalez got his s*** straight, he'd be moved too as I think Dipoto is going to try and build a power pitching staff and a garbage tosser isn't gonna work. The M's have a big time drop and they may end up as the #2 pick next year

[harmony]

They start dealing off their guys and they'll be worse than their 12-37 swoon. EE is gonna move. I expect the M's to move Haniger as well once his nut heals. If Gonzalez got his s*** straight, he'd be moved too as I think Dipoto is going to try and build a power pitching staff and a garbage tosser isn't gonna work. The M's have a big time drop and they may end up as the #2 pick next year

Let's save this post for future reference.

 

Power pitching represents yesterday's market inefficiency and the Mariners are unlikely to trade key players with at least three years of team control.

[jacksonianmarch]

Let's save this post for future reference.

 

Power pitching represents yesterday's market inefficiency and the Mariners are unlikely to trade key players with at least three years of team control.

 

Those are the guys you get the most bang for your buck for. Paxton had two years of control. Haniger is gonna move if he’s healthy. Book it

[OH FOY]

Sox have given up 317 runs this year, Tampa just 210 runs. One thing is true, Pitching and Defense travels. Don't matter home or on the road if you have this.

Earl Weaver, I think he said, nothing on the Field matters, except that little lump of dirt in the middle of the diamond.

[OH FOY]

I still would like to know, who came up with the Musical chairs thoughts on the Bullpen. What's the reasoning? Why he stopped giving defined roles?

Me, I'm going with Workman 9th, Barnes 8th, Brasier or whoever for the 7th, that's the inning if you want to play around with I'm OK. See who's consistent. For almost 70 games Cora's idea isn't working, might be time to change your thinking, before its too late.

Edited June 11, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

We seem to be seeing that classic syndrome of a team 'finding ways to lose'.

[Bellhorn04]

I still would like to know, who came up with the Musical chairs thoughts on the Bullpen. What's the reasoning? Why he stopped giving defined roles?

 

It hasn't been musical chairs. He's been using Barnes as the 'relief ace' consistently.

 

If the 2019 bullpen is bad, that's all on Dombrowski.

[OH FOY]

You know Workman in last 30 games, Workman has pitched 27.1 innings, and has given up only 8 hits. Man, that sounds like Closer stuff to me. Pretty obvious to me.

What you think about that Bellhorn?

Edited June 11, 2019 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Last 7 games for Barnes he has 8.53 ERA

Last 15 games , 5.02 ERA

Last 30 games 3.76 ERA. 26 innings with 19 hits, and 11 BB's. 26 innings with 30 base runners.