A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

It's a joyous time for Sox fans, and it gives me great pleasure to kick off next year's thread as defending Champions of MLB.

 

What a great season 2018 was from start to finish. DD did just what was needed, Cora pulled it all together and the players all pitched in to make this, perhaps, the greatest season in Red Sox history. 108 wins and 11-3 in the playoffs against maybe the best opponents in MLB history. Repeating won't be easy, and starting this thread is in now way intended to take any happiness away from any fan. If you want to take some time letting this year sink in, go for it. Join the thread when you start thinking about next year's team.

 

Here we go...

 

Let's start with our players that are up for free agency:

 

Craig Kimbrel: a top closer in MLB for many many years, but was not much of a factor near the end of the season and through the playoffs. No doubt, we will need someone to step up in a major way or re-sign or replace him, in kind. The next guy was probably our best option for an in-house solution.

 

Joe Kelly: a very good set-up man and one of the hardest throwers in MLB. He gave us a great World Series performance, but was inconsistent at times this year.

 

Drew Pomeranz: His 2018 was nothing like his 2017, and his poor season forced us to acquire Eovaldi. That worked out well for us, but we will not have to replace Pomeranz. The next guy is another story.

 

Nate Eovaldi: DD struck gold and then some with the trade he pulled to get Eovaldi. Replacing Eovaldi with some mixture of Johnson, Velazquez and Wright is an option, as perhaps DD could look for another starter like Eovaldi next July, if we need one, but my guess is a strong RH'd starter is a top priority this winter.

 

Steve Pearce: DD proved lightening can strike twice when he essentially replaced HRam with Pearce. When Moreland got hurt (again), Pearce showed he could hit righties pretty well and turned into an essential piece to our WS run.

 

Ian Kinsler: Like Pomeranz, we won't miss him, but he did bring some stability to the 2B position, when we needed it badly. His offense fell off a cliff, but his defense was very valuable until the 18th inning game gaff heard round the world.

 

Brandon Phillips: Another player that will not be missed, and his role can probably be filled from within the system.

 

I'm sure much debate will take place around Kimbrel, Eovaldi, Pearce and Kelly or ways to replace them, in kind via FA signings or trades. I'll leave that for later days. Instead, let's look at what we have coming back and their salaries or MLBTR projected arb salaries:

Here's how 2019 looks with MLBTR's arb estimates included:

 

In Luxury Tax Dollars

31.1 David Price

22.0 JD Martinez

20.1 Rick Porcello

18.7 Mookie Betts

13.8 Dustin Pedroia

13.5M Chris Sale

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez (with PA bonus reached)

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

4.5 Christian Vazquez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

$172M Total (21 players)

 

$2.2M Min for 4 MLB roster players

 

$2.2M 15 players in minor leagues on 40 man roster

 

$14.5M Player Benefits

 

$18.5M Sandoval

 

$209M Total

 

That's exactly the CB Threshold next year. I'm not going to get into what spending budget we might have or about luxury tax issues right now, but this is a good reference to use as a starting point for those conversations to come.

 

I'm going to assume the Sale option is given, and Pedey gives it a go.

 

The next point of reference is the 40 man roster. I'll start with the foundation we have right now with no additions included. That way, we can know see what we have and who might need to be replaced, traded or DFA'd.

 

Here is our current 40 man roster minus the FAs to be (36 players): Red=Bubble players (Trade or DFA)

 

9 Starting Pitchers:

Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, J Haley, W Cuevas, C Shepherd

 

10 Relief Pitchers:

Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Thornburg, C Smith, Scott, Walden, A Maddox

 

3 Catchers:

Vazquez, Leon, Swihart

 

2- 1B:

Moreland, Travis

 

4- 2B:

Pedroia, Holt, M Hernandez, T Renda

 

2- 3B:

Devers, Nunez

 

2- SS:

Bogaerts, Lin

 

1- LF:

Benintendi

 

1- CF:

Bradley

 

1-RF:

Betts

 

1- DH:

Martinez

 

Add 4 (or more if we lose some bubble players) from our Rule 5 list:

Victor Acosta, Christopher Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Roldani Baldwin, Trey Ball, Juan Barriento, Edilson Batista, Eduard Bazardo, Jordan Betts, Marino Campana, Rusney Castillo, Michael Chavis, Luis Colmenares, Eduard Conde, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Ricardo Cubillan, Enmanuel De Jesus, Chad De La Guerra, Jhonathan Diaz. Jerry Downs, Nick Duron, Junior Espinoza, Willis Figueroa, Devon Fisher, Austin Glorius, Daniel Gonzalez, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Oscar Hernandez, Tyler Hill, Dedgar Jimenez, Trevor Kelley, Trenton Kemp, Matt Kent, Travis Lakins, Marcos Lantigua, Adam Lau, Deiner Lopez, Isaias Lucena, Chris Madera, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Tate Matheny, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Mark Montgomery, Jhon Nunez, Josh Ockimey, Angel Padron, Yorvin Pantoja, Yankory Pimentel, Roniel Raudes, Austin Rei, Hildemaro Requena, Denyi Reyes, Eddy Reynoso, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Teddy Stankiewicz, Kevin Steen, Cole Sturgeon, Josh Taylor, Luke Tendler, Josh Tobias, Carlos Tovar, Kyri Washington, Jantzen Witte, Kyle Wren

 

There's a lot to discuss in the coming months. I love our chances next year, even if we barely do anything in the off season, but I seriously doubt we got that route.

 

Let the debates, discussions and arguments begin, but keep it about baseball. No politics. No personal insults.

 

Thank you.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, one thing is clear, we need to keep Nunez from reaching that PA bonus LOL

 

So what about Eovaldi and the need for a RH starter. Does DD make him a serious offer? If not Eovaldi what other RH starter might he target?

[Jasonbay44]

-Re-sign Pearce. I think he'll come pretty cheap and I think he wants to stay here. He's an older platoon player.

- Pomeranz - I think he could actually be worth re-signing if he is cheap, he may be interested in a 1 year "prove it deal" to attempt to rebuild his stock, could be a good idea for both sides, especially if we lose Eovaldi

- Let Kinsler/Phillips walk. Both are washed up and don't provide anything Brock Holt doesn't. I hope the Sox give Phillips a ring though, I know how much he really wanted to win.

- re-sign Kelly - I think we have a general idea of what his price will be, and I think his inconsistency is worth it - because when he's on, he's one of best relievers in baseball

- I would attempt to re-sign both Kimbrel and Eovaldi, but I have a feeling both of their price tags are going to be way too high, they will both depend on the price. I'm interested to see what Eovaldi commands considering he's coming of TJS, and had a really up and down season, but his playoff performances were legendary.

[Nick]

Being patient played well for DD last off season. He correctly read the market for JD. He did not panic.

 

Also having the resources in July to go get what the team needs is critical for playoff run (money and young players).

 

As I mentioned before, DD is a straight shooter. He identifies team needs and address them.

 

We need a closer, platoon partner for Moreland and another starter, Go get them DD.

[Larry Cook]

My first question is... will Pedroia be healthy next season?

 

I think that has a major impact on our infield.

[moonslav59]

Well, one thing is clear, we need to keep Nunez from reaching that PA bonus LOL

 

So what about Eovaldi and the need for a RH starter. Does DD make him a serious offer? If not Eovaldi what other RH starter might he target?

 

Nunez reached the $1M PA bonus based on 2018. I'm not sure about the other 41M bonus based on performance. I haven't heard he gained it, so I'm assuming he's at $5M next year. Some possible salaries we could look to trade, if we have a tight budget:

 

6.5 Mitch Moreland

5.0 Eduardo Nunez

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.1 Carson Smith

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

 

[moonslav59]

My first question is... will Pedroia be healthy next season?

 

I think that has a major impact on our infield.

 

I'm not sure anybody has the answer to that question.

 

My guess is we wait until the season to even think about adding a 2B piece.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thornburg and Smith seem like prime DFA candidates.

 

Nunez is at $5 mil and he’ll accept that option. No way he beats that after this season. He and Holt will be your Pedroia insurance

 

I highly, highly doubt you see Pedroia again. Micro fracture is a bad surgery and he’s already had complications from it. He’s not young and as a smaller framed guy, doesn’t have the longevity that some of the bigger guys get out of the game. My guess is you’ll be dealing for another 2b come the deadline unless Holt proves he can be a full time player

[moonslav59]

Thornburg and Smith seem like prime DFA candidates.

 

Nunez is at $5 mil and he’ll accept that option. No way he beats that after this season. He and Holt will be your Pedroia insurance

 

I highly, highly doubt you see Pedroia again. Micro fracture is a bad surgery and he’s already had complications from it. He’s not young and as a smaller framed guy, doesn’t have the longevity that some of the bigger guys get out of the game. My guess is you’ll be dealing for another 2b come the deadline unless Holt proves he can be a full time player

 

I think Devers becomes our FT 3Bman, Nunez will be healthier and able to manage 2B without looking like he did this year. Holt & Nunez can handle 2B, if Pedey does not return.

 

It would not surprise me, if Smith and/or Thornburg are non tendered, but I'm not the team doctor.

 

I can see us just signing one decent pitcher and maybe a guy like Pearce and then waiting for the season to unfold to determine who we look for in July.

 

It my depend on how much faith DD/Cora have in Chavis/Ockimey instead of Peacre or his like or Wrihgt/Johnson/Velazquez instead of Eovaldi of his like. Then, there's the pen with 2 key openings looming large.

[moonslav59]

The no resigning/ no acquisition 25 man roster may look like this:

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JDM DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Moreland 1B

7. JBJ CF

8. Holt-Nunez 2B

9. Vazquez-Leon C

Utility: 2 from Swihart, Chavis, Ockimey, Lin, Hernandez, Travis & Dalbec

 

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright

RP: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Poyner, Velazquez

Plus one from: Scott, Walden, Smith, Thornburg, Maddox, Cuevas, Lakins, Feltman, DHernandez

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You’re assuming wright will be ok with his knee the way it is.

[Nick]

You’re assuming wright will be ok with his knee the way it is.

 

I have no basis for this but Wright to me has a physique of what you think of a knuckleballer. Meaning he's out of shape. He'll always struggle physically, especially when trying to come back from a serious injury.

[jacksonianmarch]

He had the same injury Pedroia had. His knee will always be an issue. Rely on wright as much as you’d expect to rely on Pedey

[Nick]

Moon, the tax threshhold is $206M for 2019.

[Nick]

He had the same injury Pedroia had. His knee will always be an issue. Rely on wright as much as you’d expect to rely on Pedey

 

I'd almost rather see Pedey go ahead and retire. I think too many of us are thinking he's coming back to be the player once he was and will be very disappointed. We won and became the greatest Red Sox team WITHOUT him. Maybe that's what he meant when he uttered those famous words, "it wasn't me, it's them".

[jacksonianmarch]

When Pedroia signed his deal, he left AAV on the table in exchange for years. He effectively earned the money coming to him already. I don’t begrudge him for collecting and trying to come back

[oldtimer]

The no resigning/ no acquisition 25 man roster may look like this:

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JDM DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Moreland 1B

7. JBJ CF

8. Holt-Nunez 2B

9. Vazquez-Leon C

Utility: 2 from Swihart, Chavis, Ockimey, Lin, Hernandez, Travis & Dalbec

 

SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, Wright

RP: Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Johnson, Workman, Poyner, Velazquez

Plus one from: Scott, Walden, Smith, Thornburg, Maddox, Cuevas, Lakins, Feltman, DHernandez

 

 

 

 

My assumptions are a little different as Pedroia will be given a chance and of course no one knows how the knee will hold up. Wright had the same type of surgery and appears to be in the same category as Pedroia.

 

 

My assumptions are:

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JDM DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Moreland

7. JBJ CF

8. Pedroia 2B

9/!0. Vaz/Leon C

11/13. Utility Holt, Nunez, Pearce

 

SP. Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Eovaldi

RP. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Feltman, MaddoxTradeale, (Wright if healthy, or Johnson/Velazquez)

 

Tradeable assets: Swihart, Travis, Scott, Smith, Thornburg

Others: Don't think Hernandez is a long term solution at 2nd as he would have to come back from shoulder surgery

Hate to lose Lin or Chavis as both are certainly either ML talents or close that we might need, especially with Pedroia still uncertain.

[Slasher9]

 

Here we go...

 

Let's start with our players that are up for free agency:

 

Craig Kimbrel: a top closer in MLB for many many years, but was not much of a factor near the end of the season and through the playoffs. No doubt, we will need someone to step up in a major way or re-sign or replace him, in kind. The next guy was probably our best option for an in-house solution.

 

Joe Kelly: a very good set-up man and one of the hardest throwers in MLB. He gave us a great World Series performance, but was inconsistent at times this year.

 

Drew Pomeranz: His 2018 was nothing like his 2017, and his poor season forced us to acquire Eovaldi. That worked out well for us, but we will not have to replace Pomeranz. The next guy is another story.

 

Nate Eovaldi: DD struck gold and then some with the trade he pulled to get Eovaldi. Replacing Eovaldi with some mixture of Johnson, Velazquez and Wright is an option, as perhaps DD could look for another starter like Eovaldi next July, if we need one, but my guess is a strong RH'd starter is a top priority this winter.

 

Steve Pearce: DD proved lightening can strike twice when he essentially replaced HRam with Pearce. When Moreland got hurt (again), Pearce showed he could hit righties pretty well and turned into an essential piece to our WS run.

 

Ian Kinsler: Like Pomeranz, we won't miss him, but he did bring some stability to the 2B position, when we needed it badly. His offense fell off a cliff, but his defense was very valuable until the 18th inning game gaff heard round the world.

 

Brandon Phillips: Another player that will not be missed, and his role can probably be filled from within the system.

 

 

There's a lot to discuss in the coming months. I love our chances next year, even if we barely do anything in the off season, but I seriously doubt we got that route.

 

Let the debates, discussions and arguments begin, but keep it about baseball. No politics. No personal insults.

 

Thank you.

 

First off - congrats right back at you sir. was a GLORIOUS 2018 season. now the fun that is Hot Stove begins.

my take on our FA's:

Kimbrel: good luck in your new town.

Kelly: priority resign.

Pom: good luck in your new town.

Eovaldi: try and resign. lets not go too crazy here with years though.

Pearce: try and resign.

Kinsler: good luck in your new town.

Philips: good luck in your new town.

[moonslav59]

You’re assuming wright will be ok with his knee the way it is.

 

Yes, that may be assuming a lot, but word was he was almost available for the WS.

 

We also have Johnson and Velazquez, who should both be able to up their innings next year.

 

If all 3 fail, DD will just find the next Eovaldi in July 2019.

 

[moonslav59]

Moon, the tax threshhold is $206M for 2019.

 

Thanks.

 

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

 

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

 

Is this possible?

$12M x 4 Eovaldi

$7M x 4 Kelly

$7M x 3 Pearce

$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

 

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

[notin]

My assumptions are a little different as Pedroia will be given a chance and of course no one knows how the knee will hold up. Wright had the same type of surgery and appears to be in the same category as Pedroia.

 

 

My assumptions are:

 

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JDM DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Moreland

7. JBJ CF

8. Pedroia 2B

9/!0. Vaz/Leon C

11/13. Utility Holt, Nunez, Pearce

 

SP. Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod, Eovaldi

RP. Kelly, Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Feltman, MaddoxTradeale, (Wright if healthy, or Johnson/Velazquez)

 

Tradeable assets: Swihart, Travis, Scott, Smith, Thornburg

Others: Don't think Hernandez is a long term solution at 2nd as he would have to come back from shoulder surgery

Hate to lose Lin or Chavis as both are certainly either ML talents or close that we might need, especially with Pedroia still uncertain.

 

Wright’s career was ended by spinal stenosis. But Grady Sizemore had micro fracture knee surgery that effectively ended his career. And Matt Kemp had the same surgery and moved on....

[Hitch]

Thanks.

 

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

 

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

 

Is this possible?

$12M x 4 Eovaldi

$7M x 4 Kelly

$7M x 3 Pearce

$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

 

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

 

If offered the opportunity, I would take that right now.

 

I want as much of this team back together as possible for one more year.

[moonslav59]

If offered the opportunity, I would take that right now.

 

I want as much of this team back together as possible for one more year.

 

Over the years, Soix management has been pretty good at knowing when to cut ties with players, even those who have been successful or even legendary. I'm not sure how they project Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce going forward. They may see a similar player out there who looks better or is cheaper than the three I mentioned, but I'd be happy with starting the season with Eovaldi, Kelly, Pearce and a lefty pen arm and $4-6M to use in the summer. (Assuming we trade Swihart)

 

Replace these IP or PAs with this...

PAs

207 Swihart and 195 HRam with more from Pearce, Vaz and Chavis/Ockimey/Dalbec/Travis

143 Kinsler and 27 Phillips with more from Holt, Nunez or Pedey/Hernandez

IP'd

74 Pomeranz with more from ERod, Wright and Johnson/Velazquez

62 Kimbrel with more from Brasier, Workman, Wright, Poyner, Smith/Thornburg/Scott

 

 

[FredLynn]

My first question is... will Pedroia be healthy next season?

 

I think that has a major impact on our infield.

 

Pedroia is toast. I don't know why so many people here are thinking he will contribute in a substantial way to the team next year. He might be able to play occasionally, but his knee is shot. IMO he should retire so he can delay the need for joint replacement surgery.

[sk7326]

A realistic view of 2019.

 

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

[Station 13]

A realistic view of 2019.

 

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

 

It's hard to top the 2018 season. 119 total wins. 7-1 on the road in the playoff. Could have been 7-0!

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to top the 2018 season. 119 total wins. 7-1 on the road in the playoff. Could have been 7-0!

 

It's impossible to top. It was the dream season.

[notin]

Thanks.

 

Then, that puts us over day one, before any signings, although a couple non-tenders can cure that.

 

I seriously doubt DD will be instructed to reset the tax in 2019. The window is still wide open, so my guess is we will get near or even go over the $246M penalty phase. If we want to come up just short, then we'll have about $36M to spend. We'll likely keep some for mid season deals, so realistically the winter spending budget might, and I emphasize "might" because we don't know what Henry will want to spend next year, be around $30-32M.

 

Is this possible?

$12M x 4 Eovaldi

$7M x 4 Kelly

$7M x 3 Pearce

$4-6M on a lefty RP'er

 

Basically, the same team as 2018 minus Kimbrel.

 

The years are a bit much for Kelly and Pearce, although not horrible. I’m just comparing them to recent deals.

 

Is $4-6 mill for a lefty reliever even possible? Mediocre LOOGYs like Boone Logan and Zach Duke were getting more 5 years ago. Besides, Poyner is a minimum wage guy and Robby Scott isn’t dead yet...

[moonslav59]

The years are a bit much for Kelly and Pearce, although not horrible. I’m just comparing them to recent deals.

 

Is $4-6 mill for a lefty reliever even possible? Mediocre LOOGYs like Boone Logan and Zach Duke were getting more 5 years ago. Besides, Poyner is a minimum wage guy and Robby Scott isn’t dead yet...

 

I put my numbers high enough or long enough to pretty much make sure we'd get them all. I thought of Kelly for 3 years and Pearce for 2 (like Moreland), but to get them, it might take one more year. We might get Kelly for $25M/4 or $21M/3 and Pearce for $18M/3 or $15M/2. I'm think E-O might get more than $50M/4.

[Hitch]

A realistic view of 2019.

 

We will not be as good as we were in 2018.

 

Almost certainly. It will be near impossible to to this. It was as perfect a season as we could have dreamt.