A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Slasher9]

The Astros have done a great job and are the premier team over the last 3 seasons.

 

But I'll still take our 4 titles in 15 years any day.

 

This.

[Bellhorn04]

I'll take our Patriots 6 SB's over our Sox, last 19 years. Just voted the most dominating team in all sports in this decade.

You know what Belichick would say about this? He would say what's done in the past has no bearing on this season. He could care less, its all about the now.

That's why they are great.

 

That and TB12. Football is a game where one player, the greatest QB in history, can be the difference year after year.

[Slasher9]

I'll take our Patriots 6 SB's over our Sox, last 19 years. Just voted the most dominating team in all sports in this decade.

.

 

Don’t get me wrong...I love the Pats. But I would take 1 Red Sox world championship over 10 patriots parades...

[OH FOY]

Don’t get me wrong...I love the Pats. But I would take 1 Red Sox world championship over 10 patriots parades...

 

Equal to me. In fact much harder sport to repeat, or get back with Salary Cap. Just like Hockey. Salary Cap makes a big difference.

Edited June 8, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Equal to me. In fact much harder sport to repeat, or get back with Salary Cap. Just like Hockey. Salary Cap makes a big difference.

 

Not harder to repeat when you have TB12 for 20 years.

[OH FOY]

Football is a team sport, Pats won 10-6 this year. Not much of a game from TB, except one pass. Pats had a winning record with Matt Cassel. when TB got injured for whole season. That year Charger played in a weak division, won it with a 8-8 record, Pats didn't make it with a 11-5 record.

You guys keep quoting me, I'll just try to say what I think the Facts are.

Edited June 8, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Football is a team sport, Pats won 10-6 this year. Not much of a game from TB, except one pass. Pats had a winning record with Matt Cassel. when TB got injured for whole season.

 

And in the previous SB he was incredible but the defense was awful. Brady has very few bad games. He gives his team a huge edge.

 

Baseball is more of a team game than football. In baseball one player cannot be the difference on an ongoing basis. Even an ace like Chris Sale can only help you every fifth game.

[Bellhorn04]

Moreland right back to the IL.

 

Marco gets the callup.

[moonslav59]

Moreland right back to the IL.

 

Marco gets the callup.

 

Who's Marco?

 

(Sarcasm alert)

 

[oldtimer]

Moreland right back to the IL.

 

Marco gets the callup.

 

Moreland has given this team a lift. He is a real pro, good fielder and makes a difference with his bat. I was at the point of suggesting we keep him in the fold going forward as a part time 1st baseman and DH. His suceptability to injury is givinng me pause as maybe we need to replace both Pearce and Moreland going forward.

[moonslav59]

Moreland has given this team a lift. He is a real pro, good fielder and makes a difference with his bat. I was at the point of suggesting we keep him in the fold going forward as a part time 1st baseman and DH. His suceptability to injury is givinng me pause as maybe we need to replace both Pearce and Moreland going forward.

 

Moreland has missed time and played injured every year with us.

 

He also is known for starting the season out very well and then declining sharply.

 

Depending on how Chavis finishes the season, we may use him at 1B next year and save over $12M (Moreland + Pearce).

 

We also have Dalbec and farther away prospects Dalbec & Casas as options.

 

We could also look to give JD a 1Bman's mitt at some point.

 

I think the talk of moving Devers to 1B is all but over (for now).

[harmony]

The Red Sox schedule only gets harder.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

The Red Sox having losing records against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Houston Astros (a combined 6-11 [.353], 3-9 since a sweep of the Rays) and have yet to play a Minnesota club that shares the league's best record.

 

Challenges await.

[OH FOY]

The Red Sox having losing records against the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Houston Astros (a combined 6-11 [.353], 3-9 since a sweep of the Rays) and have yet to play a Minnesota club that shares the league's best record.

 

Challenges await.

 

Good thing the Rays don't have Ordorrizi this year.

[moonslav59]

SOX ERA

 

Before Leon's first game: 5.93

 

Since his first game: 3.93

 

CERA

3.57 Leon

4.49 Vaz

6.17 Swihart

 

OPS Against (PAs)

w Leon

.684 Porcello (232)

.536 C Sale (201)

.762 Hembree (39)

.989 Brewer (30)

.738 Workman (28)

.729 Walden (23)

.500 Price (22)

.997 Thornburg (20)

.105 Brasier (19)

 

w Vaz

.729 ERod (262)

.659 Price (188)

.876 C Sale (114)

.910 Velazquez (112)

.423 Walden (88)

.863 Weber (88)

.824 Brasier (75)

.738 Brewer (73)

.292 Workman (71)

.598 Barnes (71)

.871 Porcello (70)

.568 Hembree (55)

1.015 Thornburg (52)

.831 Eovaldi (49)

 

w Swihart

.975 Eovaldi (44)

.423 Velazquez (26)

1.338 Porcello (24)

.769 ERod (24)

.786 Hembree (19)

 

 

[moonslav59]

2018-2019 Starting Pitchers (153 with 100+ IP)

 

ERA-

4. Sale 59

18. Price 75

61. ERod 91

67. Eovaldi 95

76. Porcello 98

 

If you go by every 30 starters as the cut of for ranking 1-2-3-4-5 starters, we have...

 

2 number 1's (Sale & Price)

 

The best #3 (ERod at #61)

 

2 other solid #3's (Porcello & Eovaldi)

 

The Astros have:

5. Verlander

12. Miley

17. Cole

70. McCullers

 

The Yanks have:

23. Severino

39. Sabathia

50. Paxton

54. Happ

121. German

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

The Astros do not have McCullers. He is out for the entire year

[moonslav59]

The Astros do not have McCullers. He is out for the entire year

 

Right, so we look even better, especially if you believe Miley's numbers are not sustainable.

 

[moonslav59]

Some recent Sox K/BB ratios:

 

Sale: 78:9 in last 47.1 IP (Take away his one 5 BB game and it's 68:4)

 

Price: 27:4 in last 24 IP

 

Porcello: 9:1 in last 10.2 IP

 

ERod: 27:4 in last 22.2 IP (12:1 in last 11.2)

 

[moonslav59]

Sox Positional Rankings in the AL:

 

Catcher: 3 WAR (1.7)/ 6 OPS (.760)

 

1B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 10 OPS (.742)

 

2B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 8 OPS (.672)

 

3B: 4 WAR (2.1)/ 3 OPS (.874)

 

SS: 2 WAR (2.9)/ 1 OPS (.915)

 

LF: 6 WAR (1.2)/ 7 OPS (.779)

 

CF: 11 WAR (-0.2)/ 13 OPS (.608)

 

RF: 6 WAR (1.7)/ 3 OPS (.841)

 

DH: 6 WAR (0.6)/ 6 OPS (.821)

 

All: 5 WAR (10.1)4 OPS (.781)

 

 

Pitching: 6 WAR (7.6)/ 3 xFIP (4.13)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

.899 JD

.898 Bogey

.859 Moreland

.847 Devers

.840 Betts

.804 Chavis

.791 Vaz

.774 Beni

.691 Holt

.638 Leon

.618 JBJ

.560 Nunez

.503 Pearce

 

1.200 Marco

.573 Lin

.400 Travis

.243 Pedey

[oldtimer]

Sox Positional Rankings in the AL:

 

Catcher: 3 WAR (1.7)/ 6 OPS (.760)

 

1B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 10 OPS (.742)

 

2B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 8 OPS (.672)

 

3B: 4 WAR (2.1)/ 3 OPS (.874)

 

SS: 2 WAR (2.9)/ 1 OPS (.915)

 

LF: 6 WAR (1.2)/ 7 OPS (.779)

 

CF: 11 WAR (-0.2)/ 13 OPS (.608)

 

RF: 6 WAR (1.7)/ 3 OPS (.841)

 

DH: 6 WAR (0.6)/ 6 OPS (.821)

 

All: 5 WAR (10.1)4 OPS (.781)

 

 

Pitching: 6 WAR (7.6)/ 3 xFIP (4.13)

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting, but do you draw any conclusions?

[devildavid]

Sox Positional Rankings in the AL:

 

Catcher: 3 WAR (1.7)/ 6 OPS (.760)

 

1B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 10 OPS (.742)

 

2B: 10 WAR (0.1)/ 8 OPS (.672)

 

3B: 4 WAR (2.1)/ 3 OPS (.874)

 

SS: 2 WAR (2.9)/ 1 OPS (.915)

 

LF: 6 WAR (1.2)/ 7 OPS (.779)

 

CF: 11 WAR (-0.2)/ 13 OPS (.608)

 

RF: 6 WAR (1.7)/ 3 OPS (.841)

 

DH: 6 WAR (0.6)/ 6 OPS (.821)

 

All: 5 WAR (10.1)4 OPS (.781)

 

 

Pitching: 6 WAR (7.6)/ 3 xFIP (4.13)

 

 

 

 

 

Which puts the Sox firmly in the wild card race.

[Bellhorn04]

Interesting, but do you draw any conclusions?

 

You know the numbers that matter, oldtimer.

 

We're 34-31, 6 games back of the Yankees and Rays.

 

And today is another big game. If we win and get a split we'll all be feeling okay about the team. If we lose 3 out of 4 we will not be feeling okay.

[oldtimer]

You know the numbers that matter, oldtimer.

 

We're 34-31, 6 games back of the Yankees and Rays.

 

And today is another big game. If we win and get a split we'll all be feeling okay about the team. If we lose 3 out of 4 we will not be feeling okay.

 

My thoughts exactly. In a way, Cora hasn't had all his ammunition for this series. Eovaldi would help and so would JDM and Moreland. I guess every team goes through this during the season. I just hope these injury problems to meaningful prolayers don't become chronic.

[Bellhorn04]

My thoughts exactly. In a way, Cora hasn't had all his ammunition for this series. Eovaldi would help and so would JDM and Moreland. I guess every team goes through this during the season. I just hope these injury problems to meaningful prolayers don't become chronic.

 

We need a healthy JDM badly for sure.

[OH FOY]

Pawtucket will have 3 Sox rehabbing today, Brian Johnson, Tyler Thorburg, and Steven Wright.

[moonslav59]

Interesting, but do you draw any conclusions?

 

Compared to last year, catcher and 3B have shown huge gains. I had suggested those two positions plus 1B might offset the expected declines from Betts and JD, but 1B has been an issue, this year- too many injuries, mainly.

 

Bogey has been a beast.

 

2B remains an issue.

 

CF is improving, but started out in the gutter.

 

Our pitching has done great since the first 2-3 weeks. Hopefully, it continues and gets a boost from Eovaldi & maybe Johnson.

[moonslav59]

You know the numbers that matter, oldtimer.

 

We're 34-31, 6 games back of the Yankees and Rays.

 

And today is another big game. If we win and get a split we'll all be feeling okay about the team. If we lose 3 out of 4 we will not be feeling okay.

 

...and, we're one down (to Texas) in the WC at this point in time.

 

I doubt we continue at a 34-31 pace, but I've been saying that for a month or more, so who knows.

[oldtimer]

...and, we're one down (to Texas) in the WC at this point in time.

 

I doubt we continue at a 34-31 pace, but I've been saying that for a month or more, so who knows.

 

We went into a scoring slump and have injuries to some of our chief run producers. I am not as naturally opttimistic as you, especially since I haven't seen that fire and desire to win that a club needs to be competitive. There is time to recover and win the second wild card but it doesn't look like we will overtake either the Yannkees or the Rays. They are both good teams and even if we catch fire, making up 7 or 8 games is difficult to do.

[harmony]

...and, we're one down (to Texas) in the WC at this point in time.

 

I doubt we continue at a 34-31 pace, but I've been saying that for a month or more, so who knows.

How important is the upcoming four-game series against the Texas Rangers?