And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Slasher9]

And in terms of farm building, Theo was a master of getting the comp picks for players and hitting on them. Ben wasn’t as good. Well, for big market clubs, those comp picks are far later. If the Sox lose Kimbrel, they get a comp pick after the fourth round due to their salary expenditures. That’s almost useless in return

 

"our farm is better"

"wait until next year"

 

also....what round was Mookie Betts drafted in? (i'll give you a hint...it was after round 4).....

[Slasher9]

The Sox farm is desolate. With Groome down and Chavis using roids, the Sox are without a top 100 prospect. There are a few relievers in their minors that have good stuff and may end up making an impact. .

 

i guess we will just have to take comfort wrapping ourselves up in our 2018 World Series Champion banner......

[notin]

...I take from this post that I am accusing someone of having some sort of agenda? I'm ok with that to. You just see right through me. For all of this time, I just thought that I was another member of the forum who really didn't appreciate the condescending tone coming from those amongst us who are never wrong because they can prove it with their data...

 

You don’t think you did? You said anyone who doesn’t think this is a good farm is solely basing this on what DD has done in the past.. You’re saying that fans like myself and others along with Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, and numerous other articles are basing this negatively evaluation solely on DD’s past drafting history in Detroit. We aren’t.

 

You can dismiss my credibility (which is not unwise) but to dismiss anyone’s thought on the subject so casually without even considering they have a source or some knowledge isn’t conducive to anything.

 

See how we differed. I asked about your source. You assigned me mine and then discredited it. And then called me condescending on top of it...

[moonslav59]

Ben was able to get a lot of international free agents that made a high impact on our current team- some via big trades. True, the ban on signings hurt DD for a year, but the system changed as well. That is not DD's fault, but the reality is that it is much much harder to sign or draft players when you keep having one of the best records in MLB and break the luxury tax barrier more times than not.

 

Past international FA signings:

Theo

Doubront

Dice-K

Okajima

Tazawa

W Cuevas

Montas (part of Peavy trade)

Bogaerts

Aro (part of C Smith trade)

Margot (centerpiece of Kimbrel trade)

 

Ben

T-W Lin

J Guerra (part of Kimbrel trade)

L Basabe (part of Sale trade)

L basabe (part of Thornburg trade)

Moncada (centerpiece of Sale trade)

R Devers

D Hernandez

J. Diaz

 

DD

B Mata

H Velazquez

D Flores (deceased)

D Diaz

 

 

 

 

 

 

[cp176]

You don’t think you did? You said anyone who doesn’t think this is a good farm is solely basing this on what DD has done in the past.. You’re saying that fans like myself and others along with Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com, and numerous other articles are basing this negatively evaluation solely on DD’s past drafting history in Detroit. We aren’t.

 

You can dismiss my credibility (which is not unwise) but to dismiss anyone’s thought on the subject so casually without even considering they have a source or some knowledge isn’t conducive to anything.

 

See how we differed. I asked about your source. You assigned me mine and then discredited it. And then called me condescending on top of it...

 

did I really say that notin? I'm so sorry that it came across that way. it was not meant to be interpreted as a direct statement more of an opinion. I don't think that I mentioned any of the organizations that you referred to here. What I take from this is that if I disagree with your opinions I must be wrong? You are doing it again notin. wordsmithing. I'm sure that you are a very intelligent person - much more intelligent than I am but I do recognize what you do. And look, don't take the condescending word too personally, I kind of like it when people say that I am. There might even be a reason for it but as you said in reference to yourself - It would not be unwise to simply disregard my opinions. You certainly don't have to give value to my opinions which for the most part are unsubstantiated by the types of tools that you like to see used. In today's world it seems everyone has a voice, even those who can't offer facts to back up what they say.

[Bellhorn04]

i guess we will just have to take comfort wrapping ourselves up in our 2018 World Series Champion banner......

 

Yes, we will try to take comfort as we fret about all those Yankees young pitching studs like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield...

[notin]

Yes, we will try to take comfort as we fret about all those Yankees young pitching studs like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield...

 

My only fear with Sheffield is he does seem like a really good opening bid for Corey Kluber...

[Dojji]

The Sox farm is desolate.

 

Of bloody course it's desolate. That's partly because Cherington whiffed a few times in the draft, and hugely because we promoted and are currently playing our blue chips.

 

Our farm is desolate because we used it to win. Winning is why you have a farm system. Of course we need to rebuild it after we've used it. you can't always just money our way out of problems, and neither can anyone else.

 

I still wouldn't have chosen the other approach when the playoff window is this glaringly obvious, and the Yankees feel pretty much the same way about things. They have been no stranger either to trading or promoting their top talent either, the difference is a large number of our best prospects came of age at roughly the same time.

[moonslav59]

Of bloody course it's desolate. That's partly because Cherington whiffed a few times in the draft, and hugely because we promoted and are currently playing our blue chips.

 

Our farm is desolate because we used it to win. Winning is why you have a farm system. Of course we need to rebuild it after we've used it. you can't always just money our way out of problems, and neither can anyone else.

 

I still wouldn't have chosen the other approach when the playoff window is this glaringly obvious, and the Yankees feel pretty much the same way about things. They have been no stranger either to trading or promoting their top talent either, the difference is a large number of our best prospects came of age at roughly the same time.

 

Can't argue with anything here, but the farm is still desolate as we near a time when we may need it to do what we did to get the roster we have now.

[Kimmi]

Farm systems probably are overrated.

 

Fifteen or 20 years ago prospects may have represented a market inefficiency. But like in most markets, the inefficiency disappears when many market players recognize the inefficiency. Attempts to capitalize on that inefficiency drive up the demand to the point the market may be overrated.

 

I suspect Dave Dombrowski and other general managers recognized the overheated market for prospects and instead traded those overvalued assets for MLB-ready players.

 

And Dombrowski has enjoyed some success.

 

 

I don't even know how to reply to that.

[Kimmi]

Yes, we will try to take comfort as we fret about all those Yankees young pitching studs like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield...

 

The more Jacko raves on and on about the Yankees, the better I feel. It's like he has a lock on reverse mojo.

[Kimmi]

Of bloody course it's desolate. That's partly because Cherington whiffed a few times in the draft, and hugely because we promoted and are currently playing our blue chips.

 

Our farm is desolate because we used it to win. Winning is why you have a farm system. Of course we need to rebuild it after we've used it. you can't always just money our way out of problems, and neither can anyone else.

 

I still wouldn't have chosen the other approach when the playoff window is this glaringly obvious, and the Yankees feel pretty much the same way about things. They have been no stranger either to trading or promoting their top talent either, the difference is a large number of our best prospects came of age at roughly the same time.

 

It is possible to build a championship team without decimating the farm system.

[Dojji]

Can't argue with anything here, but the farm is still desolate as we near a time when we may need it to do what we did to get the roster we have now.

 

Eh. We have at least 3 years before things go super-critical.

 

We mortgaged ridiculously heavily in 2004 and people thought that after that core fell apart it would be awhile because the cupboard was bare.

 

The 2007 roster turnover was good for 4 years and everyone was complaining that after 2008 or so the cupboard was bare.

 

We got through 2013 and people were saying the same thing. Cupboard was bare. If we'd managed our assets better after 2013 we'd have kept the same cycle we've had all along. Small peaks of major contention followed by long shallow valleys where we're good but not great.

 

The fact is that the objective of Red Sox management is not to win the Farm System World Series. It's to win the actual one. If you can do that while maintaining a strong pipeline, that's one thing, but if you have to sacrifice one or the other it's the farm system every time. After all the whole point of developing a strong farm is to do what we just did -- concentrate your resources and win the whole thing, as often as you can.

 

I'd say the Red Sox are in pretty good shape, and the farm system is a 5 year problem at most. If we can nurse this core along until the farm regenerates itself, we'll be all right indefinitely. That's where we failed in 2013. And with a core this young, there will be no excuse for a similar failure this time.

[moonslav59]

Eh. We have at least 3 years before things go super-critical.

 

We mortgaged ridiculously heavily in 2004 and people thought that after that core fell apart it would be awhile because the cupboard was bare.

 

The 2007 roster turnover was good for 4 years and everyone was complaining that after 2008 or so the cupboard was bare.

 

We got through 2013 and people were saying the same thing. Cupboard was bare. If we'd managed our assets better after 2013 we'd have kept the same cycle we've had all along. Small peaks of major contention followed by long shallow valleys where we're good but not great.

 

The fact is that the objective of Red Sox management is not to win the Farm System World Series. It's to win the actual one. If you can do that while maintaining a strong pipeline, that's one thing, but if you have to sacrifice one or the other it's the farm system every time. After all the whole point of developing a strong farm is to do what we just did -- concentrate your resources and win the whole thing, as often as you can.

 

I'd say the Red Sox are in pretty good shape, and the farm system is a 5 year problem at most. If we can nurse this core along until the farm regenerates itself, we'll be all right indefinitely. That's where we failed in 2013. And with a core this young, there will be no excuse for a similar failure this time.

 

After 2020, we will be facing serious decisions. Not only may we be facing our 4th straight season over the luxury tax and maybe 2 or 3 years over the max line. That's 2 years, not 3. One could argue we may look to reset the tax after 2019, but I doubt we will.

 

As for "mortgaging the farm in 2004," are you claiming the Schilling trade (De la Rosa, Fossum and Lyons) compares to DD's multiple trades?

 

de la Rosa was 3rd ranked on soxprospects.com. Theo later traded HRam and A Sanchez for the 2007 ring (Beckett & Lowell), but that was after 2005.

 

The farm in 2004 had Lester & Youkilisto start the season, and also had HRam, Pedroia, Papelbon, A Sanchez, Shoppach, Brandon Moss, David Murphy & Manny Delcarmen. We were also able to add Ellsbury, Buchholz & Lowrie that summer, thanks to the generous comp pick rules that are no longer in place.

 

It's wishful thinking to expect anything like that anymore. It's very hard to build a farm when you keep winning and the rules have changed to make it very hard for winners and big spenders to acquire prospects through the draft or international signing systems.

[Dojji]

It is possible to build a championship team without decimating the farm system.

 

I'm not sure I agree. Building a championship decimates a farmsystem in two ways -- by promotion, and by providing fodder for trades. There is a goal of GMs to maintain a 5-7 year window of sustained success by a combination of smart free agent signings and limited poaching of talent from the minors, but indefinite success, or trying to have your farm system cake and eat it too, is not something that any GM, no matter how competent, can sustsain indefinitely.

 

Time and time again history has proven that while you can build to win at a high level for a few years at a time, ultimately your alternatives are to invest your resources in building a winner, or not having a winner.

 

If you're good you can put it off for awhile, but eventually you have that choice -- Go For It, or Don't. And each choice has significant long term consequences, as we saw in 04 when we went in with both feet and struggled for a few years afterward, and as we saw in 14-15 when the emphasis was on rebuilding the pipeline and the results at the big league level were extremely unsatisfying for fans and ownership.

 

Ultimately it's a herculean effort to maintain either a top farm or a championship roster. Trying to do both at the same time is either an act of genius, or an act of lunacy, generally tending toward the latter.

 

That said, I'd love you to produce historic examples of teams that prove me wrong by having nearly indefinite success without ever disrupting the pipeline.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Dojji

[sk7326]

It is possible to build a championship team without decimating the farm system.

 

Not really - Cubs had the same problem. You look at the team scouting ranks and the top is dominated by teams without recent major league track record. The likelihood that a team has put together a serious contender while sustaining oodles of stars at AA-AAA are extremely low. The math just doesn't add up.

 

Farm systems are supremely important ... but I think the "Farm" term is specifically appropriate. There's a harvest, and then a new crop - but there will be lag there. There certainly has not been enough time to judge Dombrowski's replenishment efforts in either direction.

[Nick]

Based on success rate of young players, i would continue to make 2 for 1 trades for farm hands to increase the chance of finding the diamond in the rough.

[harmony]

 

I don't even know how to reply to that.

An undervalued stock is undervalued only until the market players recognize that the stock is undervalued. The resulting demand for the undervalued stock results in the stock being appropriately valued and often eventually overvalued.

[mvp 78]

This team was so f***ing good this year that nobody is posting the past few days. There is barely anything to talk about since we are all in the afterglow of one of the most dominant MLB teams of all time.

[Bellhorn04]

This team was so f***ing good this year that nobody is posting the past few days. There is barely anything to talk about since we are all in the afterglow of one of the most dominant MLB teams of all time.

 

And all the boo birds are flying south for the winter.

[notin]

Not really - Cubs had the same problem. You look at the team scouting ranks and the top is dominated by teams without recent major league track record. The likelihood that a team has put together a serious contender while sustaining oodles of stars at AA-AAA are extremely low. The math just doesn't add up.

 

 

And yet Theo Epstein did it in Boston...

[notin]

Eh. We have at least 3 years before things go super-critical.

 

We mortgaged ridiculously heavily in 2004 and people thought that after that core fell apart it would be awhile because the cupboard was bare.

 

[/QUOte]

 

No they didn’t.

 

The Sox didn’t mortgage the farm by trading away Casey Fossim, Brandon Lyon and Matt Murton. Murton was their only top ten prospect dealt that year and the Sox held on to Hanley, Lester and Youkilis, among others.

 

Then they had a killer draft in 2005...

[mvp 78]

And all the boo birds are flying south for the winter.

 

Championships: making madstorks extinct since 10/29/18!

[Kimmi]

I'm not sure I agree. Building a championship decimates a farmsystem in two ways -- by promotion, and by providing fodder for trades. There is a goal of GMs to maintain a 5-7 year window of sustained success by a combination of smart free agent signings and limited poaching of talent from the minors, but indefinite success, or trying to have your farm system cake and eat it too, is not something that any GM, no matter how competent, can sustsain indefinitely.

 

Time and time again history has proven that while you can build to win at a high level for a few years at a time, ultimately your alternatives are to invest your resources in building a winner, or not having a winner.

 

If you're good you can put it off for awhile, but eventually you have that choice -- Go For It, or Don't. And each choice has significant long term consequences, as we saw in 04 when we went in with both feet and struggled for a few years afterward, and as we saw in 14-15 when the emphasis was on rebuilding the pipeline and the results at the big league level were extremely unsatisfying for fans and ownership.

 

Ultimately it's a herculean effort to maintain either a top farm or a championship roster. Trying to do both at the same time is either an act of genius, or an act of lunacy, generally tending toward the latter.

 

That said, I'd love you to produce historic examples of teams that prove me wrong by having nearly indefinite success without ever disrupting the pipeline.

 

Building a championship does not have to decimate the farm system. I'm not suggesting that a team will have the #1 farm system year in and year out, while at the same time being able to put together a championship team, but there is certainly a middle road where there's a balance between the short term goals and the long term goals.

 

Start by not giving up as much as we did for Kimbrel, not to mention paying him a hefty salary on top of that. I don't think it's unreasonable to think a team can have a revolving door of prospects to fill the needs of the team as other players leave.

[Kimmi]

Not really - Cubs had the same problem. You look at the team scouting ranks and the top is dominated by teams without recent major league track record. The likelihood that a team has put together a serious contender while sustaining oodles of stars at AA-AAA are extremely low. The math just doesn't add up.

 

Farm systems are supremely important ... but I think the "Farm" term is specifically appropriate. There's a harvest, and then a new crop - but there will be lag there. There certainly has not been enough time to judge Dombrowski's replenishment efforts in either direction.

 

As I just posted, I'm not expecting to sustain oodles of stars in the farm system or to maintain a top 5 farm system year in and year out. But, I also don't think that a GM has to decimate a farm to the extent that Dombrowski did. This team was, for the most part, a championship caliber team before Dombrowski made his first move.

 

Sign a David Price now and then. That's fine. Then make the under the radar type moves to fill in the rest of the holes.

[Kimmi]

An undervalued stock is undervalued only until the market players recognize that the stock is undervalued. The resulting demand for the undervalued stock results in the stock being appropriately valued and often eventually overvalued.

 

I am sorry to say that I read this about 7 times, and I still don't understand what you're saying.

 

My question is, do you mean that having a strong farm system is overrated, or do you mean that people tend to overrate their farm systems?

[Kimmi]

Championships: making madstorks extinct since 10/29/18!

 

LOL That's pretty funny.

[moonslav59]

This team was so f***ing good this year that nobody is posting the past few days. There is barely anything to talk about since we are all in the afterglow of one of the most dominant MLB teams of all time.

 

I'm kind of feeling like it still hasn't sunk in all the way. Worldly events and concerns have been occupying my mind a lot, too.

 

I'm so grateful for all these rings. 4 in 15 years is not an easy thing to do these days.

[TylerD]

This team was so f***ing good this year that nobody is posting the past few days. There is barely anything to talk about since we are all in the afterglow of one of the most dominant MLB teams of all time.

 

I was just thinking this. I don't have anything to add right now. Certain things we can say that maybe will slightly improve the team. But when Boston went 11-3 in the post season and two of those series were against teams with 100 wins or more...... That is a dynamic team. Just enjoying the aftermath right now. I will get my World Series hat today!

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

Will be interesting to see what Harper gets. Whatever he gets Mookie will get more. $300 million may be Mookie's asking price. gulp.