And the off season begins (2018-19)

[moonslav59]

Pearce is probably headed for a 2 yr $15 mil contract. That seems to be the going rate for RH hitting platoon 1b/COF's.

 

If the spending window will be tightened after 2019, then we may not want to give him 2 years. Maybe he'll take a 1 year deal with an option 2nd year and hefty buyout.

 

To me, going beyond 2-3 years for Eovaldi is the harder and more significant call.

[moonslav59]

Pearce is probably headed for a 2 yr $15 mil contract. That seems to be the going rate for RH hitting platoon 1b/COF's.

 

Could we sign Pearce, trade Moreland (lose the $5.5M) and hope Chavis or Ockimey can contribute in 2019?

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think Ockimey is the right guy. He wasn't great in AA and was terrible in AAA. Chavis might end up being Pearce's replacement come the end of the season. The problem is, if you re-sign Pearce, you will need the LH part of the platoon. Chavis is RHed. Pearce is gonna sign for the highest total salary. He hasn't earned a ton in his career and this sox run will be his cash cow.

[moonslav59]

I don't think Ockimey is the right guy. He wasn't great in AA and was terrible in AAA. Chavis might end up being Pearce's replacement come the end of the season. The problem is, if you re-sign Pearce, you will need the LH part of the platoon. Chavis is RHed. Pearce is gonna sign for the highest total salary. He hasn't earned a ton in his career and this sox run will be his cash cow.

 

We are going to haave to scrimp somewhere and 1B is the one area we have possible in-system help.

 

(BTW, Chavis has shown flashes of reverse splits.)

Edited November 9, 2018 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

We are going to haave to scrimp somewhere and 1B is the one area we have possible in-system help.

 

(BTW, Chavis has shown flashes of reverse splits.)

 

I see that, but what I am saying is there is no reason to sign Pearce if you think Chavis is ready. And if Chavis is the R on R platoon mate of Pearce, then why not just start Pearce? I also don't think Moreland has much value on the open market. The sox signed him mostly to ensure they get good defense and a good AB out of 1b. He was a placeholder to figure out Hanley and at least show some stability. Problem is, he is a first half warrior and second half swooner almost on a yearly basis.

[moonslav59]

I see that, but what I am saying is there is no reason to sign Pearce if you think Chavis is ready. And if Chavis is the R on R platoon mate of Pearce, then why not just start Pearce? I also don't think Moreland has much value on the open market. The sox signed him mostly to ensure they get good defense and a good AB out of 1b. He was a placeholder to figure out Hanley and at least show some stability. Problem is, he is a first half warrior and second half swooner almost on a yearly basis.

 

I think Chavis might be dealt. I see Ockimey as our best 1B hope, unless Dalbec overtakes him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dalbec is the higher rated prospect IIRC. The thing that concerns me about Dalbec is his utter lack of plate discipline once he got to AA. He was a High A warrior and averaged 2 walks every 3 games. He got to AA and he walked once every 5 games and his K rate jumped by 0.3 per game. AA is the proving ground for prospect and for a guy who will turn 24 in 2019, I wonder if he was just older than his competition or if he will develop into an Aaron Judge type high K and high BB player. Ockimey showed better plate discipline in AA and is a year and 4 months younger than Dalbec, but he hasn't shown the same premium power upside. He can hit the homer, just not at the rate of Dalbec. Either way, both will need to work on their hit tool to stay relevant

[moonslav59]

Dalbec is the higher rated prospect IIRC. The thing that concerns me about Dalbec is his utter lack of plate discipline once he got to AA. He was a High A warrior and averaged 2 walks every 3 games. He got to AA and he walked once every 5 games and his K rate jumped by 0.3 per game. AA is the proving ground for prospect and for a guy who will turn 24 in 2019, I wonder if he was just older than his competition or if he will develop into an Aaron Judge type high K and high BB player. Ockimey showed better plate discipline in AA and is a year and 4 months younger than Dalbec, but he hasn't shown the same premium power upside. He can hit the homer, just not at the rate of Dalbec. Either way, both will need to work on their hit tool to stay relevant

 

Agreed. Saying they represent our best hope for (near) immediate in-house solutions, is not implying they are locks as significant contributors.

[oldtimer]

On that I agree. Way back in the dim past, Brock Holt actually came up through the ranks as a 2B. If we had to play Holt for a full season at a single position, 2B is the position I'd be most comfortable trying that. And with Nunez also in the fold, we may not need to get all that creative to cover the position if needed.

 

If Holt does indeed wind up taking the majority of time at second, we then only haqve Nunez available to sub in for short and third. It would be good to have Lin available on the 40 man roster as he can handle the infield positions except for 1st. Marco Hernandez spent a year out of baseball activities with a maqjor injury. Can he make it back to a level where he would help? Big question there.

[Dojji]

If Holt is taking up that much time as the full time 2B, it'll be because Pedey is on the DL and we can use the roster spot to promote Two-Way Lin, who I honestly trust more than Hernandez right now.

 

My first infielder up from the minors would be Lin, then Hernandez if Lin isn't available. Either one ought to be able to be a solid option as a utility infielder, but I actually think Lin might be able to transcend the role and fight for the starting job himself, something I don't trust Hernandez to do

 

If Lin is able to do over a full season what he's done in small sample sizes over the last couple years, that's easily a starting 2B level of offensive production, and I'm in no doubt whatsoever about Lin's defense. I think he deserves a chance to fight for the starting 2B job, and while I'm a bit skeptical due to his track record in the minors, I am actually optimistic about Two-Way Lin. I think he has a fighting chance to develop into an above average starting 2B.

 

One thing is definite -- Holt is great insurance when it comes to easing another position player into a new job.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

BTW, I think of all the lesser known prospects I've championed on this forum in the decade plus I've been here, probably the single one I'm proudest of is Holt. I was all over the Holt bandwagon well before it was sexy. I've missed on far more than my share, but as a penny-stock prospect watcher, it's really fun when one of "your" guys makes it. Holt has now been part of 2 World Series championships, and a really big part of the last one. Not bad at all for a throw-in on the Hanrahan trade.

[Kimmi]

BTW, I think of all the lesser known prospects I've championed on this forum in the decade plus I've been here, probably the single one I'm proudest of is Holt. I was all over the Holt bandwagon well before it was sexy. I've missed on far more than my share, but as a penny-stock prospect watcher, it's really fun when one of "your" guys makes it. Holt has now been part of 2 World Series championships, and a really big part of the last one. Not bad at all for a throw-in on the Hanrahan trade.

 

There was tons of criticism in the offseason over Dombrowski keeping Holt for $2.2 million, I know that.

 

Kudos to you for calling that one right.

[sk7326]

In a perfect world, signing Eovaldi for 4/60 or whatever it is seems like a nice move. You're not just doing it for 2019 but for 2020-2022. Sale and Porcello are free agents after 2019.

 

There also may be some health concerns with Sale, I don't think anyone has a clear picture about that.

 

Plus 'it's only money' - no need to trade away any more prospects for a starter.

 

Eovaldi's market is fascinating. Kershaw extended his 30M a year deal with LA. But if you did not know their names and saw them pitch you'd have a hard time thinking Eovaldi did not have better stuff.

[sk7326]

Dalbec is the higher rated prospect IIRC. The thing that concerns me about Dalbec is his utter lack of plate discipline once he got to AA. He was a High A warrior and averaged 2 walks every 3 games. He got to AA and he walked once every 5 games and his K rate jumped by 0.3 per game. AA is the proving ground for prospect and for a guy who will turn 24 in 2019, I wonder if he was just older than his competition or if he will develop into an Aaron Judge type high K and high BB player. Ockimey showed better plate discipline in AA and is a year and 4 months younger than Dalbec, but he hasn't shown the same premium power upside. He can hit the homer, just not at the rate of Dalbec. Either way, both will need to work on their hit tool to stay relevant

 

Dalbec is the ceiling guy. 24 is not old for AA (it's not young either). But yeah, he has to be able to get his bat on the ball, at least enough for his power to show. He looks like he should be able to stay at 3B. He is their most interesting position prospect but without great probability.

[Dojji]

Funny, Dalbec always struck me as the lowest ceiling of our collection of big third base prospects (Moncada, Devers, Chavis, Dalbec) due to his mediocre contact ability.

[moonslav59]

If Holt is taking up that much time as the full time 2B, it'll be because Pedey is on the DL and we can use the roster spot to promote Two-Way Lin, who I honestly trust more than Hernandez right now.

 

My first infielder up from the minors would be Lin, then Hernandez if Lin isn't available. Either one ought to be able to be a solid option as a utility infielder, but I actually think Lin might be able to transcend the role and fight for the starting job himself, something I don't trust Hernandez to do

 

If Lin is able to do over a full season what he's done in small sample sizes over the last couple years, that's easily a starting 2B level of offensive production, and I'm in no doubt whatsoever about Lin's defense. I think he deserves a chance to fight for the starting 2B job, and while I'm a bit skeptical due to his track record in the minors, I am actually optimistic about Two-Way Lin. I think he has a fighting chance to develop into an above average starting 2B.

 

One thing is definite -- Holt is great insurance when it comes to easing another position player into a new job.

 

I definitely have Lin above Hernandez and Quiroz on the 2B depth chart. He may even beat out Nunez as the starter, assuming Pedey is done.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "two-way," but I don't see Lin ever becoming more than just a decent utility player with a plus glove.

[Dojji]

It's a play on his name. Tzu-Wei. Two-Way. And honestly, if you assume the level of production he's shown in his small sample is indicative of his body of work, the offensive market at 2B is so week that Lin actually grades out as average or better for the position

[moonslav59]

Yanks to sign Lavarnway.

[jacksonianmarch]

Give us the title now!! I remember when he was coming up with the Sox, he was gonna be a 10 time all star catcher!

 

And he’ll be cut by the end of ST

[Dojji]

I'd forgotten that he exists. That said, his fate kind of colors my impression of Swihart's outlook

[moonslav59]

Assuming we carry 13 everyday players, and don't sign anyone to play 1B.

 

Are we really okay with Moreland's platoon or back up being Swihart or Holt? Unless we get JD on board with the idea of playing 1B, and he shows he can do it, I doubt Swihart makes the roster next year.

 

Vaz

Leon

Moreland

Nunez

Holt

Devers

Bogey

Beni

JBJ

Betts

JD

 

2 slots for...

Pedey or Lin/Quiroz/Hernandez

Swihart (or Butler)

Chavis/Ockimey/Dalbec

 

My guess is we sign or trade for a 1Bman, which squeezes Swihart out of a job.

 

[oldtimer]

Assuming we carry 13 everyday players, and don't sign anyone to play 1B.

 

Are we really okay with Moreland's platoon or back up being Swihart or Holt? Unless we get JD on board with the idea of playing 1B, and he shows he can do it, I doubt Swihart makes the roster next year.

 

Vaz

Leon

Moreland

Nunez

Holt

Devers

Bogey

Beni

JBJ

Betts

JD

 

2 slots for...

Pedey or Lin/Quiroz/Hernandez

Swihart (or Butler)

Chavis/Ockimey/Dalbec

 

My guess is we sign or trade for a 1Bman, which squeezes Swihart out of a job.

 

 

I wouldn't assume we won't sign Pearce. If we can get him for 2 years at reasonable money he is the perfect backup for Moreland. He is older and has been around, so there may not be a lot of clubs willing to bid his contract value up.

 

I wouldn't experiment with JDM at this point in his career. DH and backup outfielder worked last year and can again in 2019. If he has another great year for us, he may become too expensive to keep, what with our other young stars wanting to get paid. If we are weakened due to pitching in 2020, then do we want to spend big on him?

 

Lin will never be a big hitter but he looks like he can hold his own at the plate and is fast, has a good glove, can backup three infield positions and could backup the outfielld if needed. He is the kind of utility player that would be high on my list if we get to needing someone beyond Holt and Nunez.

[notin]

Give us the title now!! I remember when he was coming up with the Sox, he was gonna be a 10 time all star catcher!

 

And he’ll be cut by the end of ST

 

Right. And your fan base told us all Jesus Montero was the next Miguel Cabrera (exact comparison, btw). Must have been referring to another Miguel Cabrera, right?

[sk7326]

Yanks to sign Lavarnway.

 

Everybody knew he couldn't really catch - the problem was that he couldn't hit either.

[sk7326]

Funny, Dalbec always struck me as the lowest ceiling of our collection of big third base prospects (Moncada, Devers, Chavis, Dalbec) due to his mediocre contact ability.

 

Well of THOSE, maybe. But he has a couple of elite tools (arm, power) and looks capable of staying at 3B. Chavis' probability is higher but not sure the ceiling is higher.

[notin]

Funny, Dalbec always struck me as the lowest ceiling of our collection of big third base prospects (Moncada, Devers, Chavis, Dalbec) due to his mediocre contact ability.

 

So you liked Moncada’s contact rate?

 

Out of the other three, Dalbec does seem like the most likely to stick at 3b, which does count for something...

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't assume we won't sign Pearce. If we can get him for 2 years at reasonable money he is the perfect backup for Moreland. He is older and has been around, so there may not be a lot of clubs willing to bid his contract value up.

 

I wouldn't experiment with JDM at this point in his career. DH and backup outfielder worked last year and can again in 2019. If he has another great year for us, he may become too expensive to keep, what with our other young stars wanting to get paid. If we are weakened due to pitching in 2020, then do we want to spend big on him?

 

Lin will never be a big hitter but he looks like he can hold his own at the plate and is fast, has a good glove, can backup three infield positions and could backup the outfielld if needed. He is the kind of utility player that would be high on my list if we get to needing someone beyond Holt and Nunez.

 

I only said to assume we don't sign Pearce for argument's sake and to point out that even if we don't sign any everyday players, I still would rather trade Swihart. Swi is not the answer to our platoon 1B issue.

 

Yes, I think Pearce will be on DD's radar. I hope we find a way to keep him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here’s why I doubt Pearce is re-signed. He’s never been more marketable and he’s 35. He’s gonna get the biggest money he can find and the biggest role he can find. My bet is he signs with a team to be their regular 1b, no platoon. That increases his value and will likely see him dealt during that deal to a contender when the deadline comes about

[sk7326]

I only said to assume we don't sign Pearce for argument's sake and to point out that even if we don't sign any everyday players, I still would rather trade Swihart. Swi is not the answer to our platoon 1B issue.

 

Yes, I think Pearce will be on DD's radar. I hope we find a way to keep him.

 

Pearce will be interesting. Jacko is right that this is his last chance for a big payday - and he wants a full time ride. At the same time he has always been a platoon bat. I'd put it at 50-50 he comes back. The Sox should be able to make him a 1 year deal to come back as a platoon guy. Maybe somebody will offer more, but I am not sure there are many full time rides for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I said this before, but I see two teams who will be in on Pearce. I see the Orioles offering a two year deal to mentor the youth movement. His credibility as a WS MVP could be very useful on a team now devoid of leadership. I could also see Cleveland going for him and moving EE to FT DH. I think there’s no earthly way he signs a one year deal. He’s gonna get two year offers