And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Station 13]

https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

 

7) Craig Kimbrel, RP: A rough postseason raised a question or two about one of the game’s best closers. If the expert is right, the Red Sox will probably play at that number. I see a little bigger number. Expert: 4 years, $15M per, $60M. Me: 4 years, $18M per, $72M.

 

8) Nathan Eovaldi, SP: He became a hero in the World Series, interestingly in Boston’s one defeat, for his ability and willingness to go long in Game 3 after pitching in Games 1 and 2. Red Sox manager Alex Cora joked that Eovaldi’s agent “might kill him,” but it appears he survived the ordeal. Expert: 4 years, $16M per, $64M. Me: 3 years, $15M per, $45M

[iortiz]

Henry won't stay under the cap this year. There is too much talent still on this team not to make another run at a ring.

 

Bingo!

 

I think this is right. Red Sox are set to win again in 2019.

 

I think they will resign Pearce and Eovaldi. They will see what Kelly is going to ask and let Kimbrel walk.

 

This team will be a serious contender again.

[moonslav59]

If we don't resign Eovaldi, Pearce and Kelly, here are some possible alternative options.

 

SP (Eovaldi)

Corbin- signing him would likely mean we get no outside help at 1B or pen.

Morton- close to what E-O will get.

G, Richards- long shot

 

RP (Kelly)

Kimbrel- likely too costly

Andrew Miller- likely too costly

Ottavino- possible

Robertson- I'm not high on him.

Z Britton- I'm not high on him either.

T Sipp- Lefty

 

1B/RH'd hitter (Pearce)

Marwin Gonzalez (OF & SS also)

 

 

[OH FOY]

Robertson has 2.06 ERA at Fenway. Also better against Lefties. Guy has a Rubber Arm, I always liked him.

[Nick]

Bingo!

 

I think this is right. Red Sox are set to win again in 2019.

 

I think they will resign Pearce and Eovaldi. They will see what Kelly is going to ask and let Kimbrel walk.

 

This team will be a serious contender again.

 

Yep, that's what I'm hoping for.

[Bellhorn04]

Robertson has 2.06 ERA at Fenway. Also better against Lefties. Guy has a Rubber Arm, I always liked him.

 

I like Robertson too. The question of course is how much he's looking for.

[Kimmi]

If you are staying under the final cap, re-signing Eovaldi will likely remove all of your spending money

 

It all depends on what kind of contract Eovaldi commands, but it's not like we have to add a lot of pieces this offseason. The Sox are pretty much set, as is. I'm not advocating throwing huge money at Eovaldi either. A reasonable, short term deal, or let him walk.

[S5Dewey]

I hate to come to Kimbrel's defense because I was as frustrated as anyone with his performance this year, especially toward the end of the season. However, 42 saves and 5 wins isn't to be sneezed at.

 

We have no way of knowing how many of those 47 wins Kimbrel was responsible for. Would the results have been different if we'd had, say, Joe Kelley or Barnes or Brasier as our closer? As someone - I think it may have been Doji - said a while back, 'Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one."

To put it in perspective, Kelly Jansen had 38 saves and Aroldis Chapman had 32 and had either of them been our closer we wouldn't have won the AL East.

 

I'm not advocating signing Kimbrel at any cost but 47 wins is a lot to dismiss out of hand when we're talking about making a run again next year. Jus' sayin'.

[notin]

I hate to come to Kimbrel's defense because I was as frustrated as anyone with his performance this year, especially toward the end of the season. However, 42 saves and 5 wins isn't to be sneezed at.

 

We have no way of knowing how many of those 47 wins Kimbrel was responsible for. Would the results have been different if we'd had, say, Joe Kelley or Barnes or Brasier as our closer? As someone - I think it may have been Doji - said a while back, 'Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one."

To put it in perspective, Kelly Jansen had 38 saves and Aroldis Chapman had 32 and had either of them been our closer we wouldn't have won the AL East.

 

I'm not advocating signing Kimbrel at any cost but 47 wins is a lot to dismiss out of hand when we're talking about making a run again next year. Jus' sayin'.

 

Huh?

 

Aroldis Chapman had 32 saves in 34 chances.

 

Kenley Jansen had 38 saves in 42 chances.

 

Kimbrel had 47 saves in 52 chances.

 

Any reason to believe if we had Jansen or Chapman, the Sox would have had less than 52 chances for their closer?

[oldtimer]

I hate to come to Kimbrel's defense because I was as frustrated as anyone with his performance this year, especially toward the end of the season. However, 42 saves and 5 wins isn't to be sneezed at.

 

We have no way of knowing how many of those 47 wins Kimbrel was responsible for. Would the results have been different if we'd had, say, Joe Kelley or Barnes or Brasier as our closer? As someone - I think it may have been Doji - said a while back, 'Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one."

To put it in perspective, Kelly Jansen had 38 saves and Aroldis Chapman had 32 and had either of them been our closer we wouldn't have won the AL East.

 

I'm not advocating signing Kimbrel at any cost but 47 wins is a lot to dismiss out of hand when we're talking about making a run again next year. Jus' sayin'.

 

Many of us are saying that Kimbrel's value to another team, both in amount and duration of contract offer may be more than the value he can provide to the Sox. Saying that is not demeaning Kimbrel or what he has done for the Sox, but common sense has to reign here.

[notin]

Many of us are saying that Kimbrel's value to another team, both in amount and duration of contract offer may be more than the value he can provide to the Sox. Saying that is not demeaning Kimbrel or what he has done for the Sox, but common sense has to reign here.

 

 

 

I agree. Kimbrel was great, but it's time to move on. And use that money Kimbrel wants to 1) sign a closer and 2) sign Benintendi to a Christian Yelich-style contract, as he is well on his way to being Yelich 2.0...

[Jasonbay44]

I like Robertson too. The question of course is how much he's looking for.

 

It always comes down to this. I have a feeling Robertson will be pretty costly. He's a great reliever who has experience closing.

[S5Dewey]

Huh?

 

Aroldis Chapman had 32 saves in 34 chances.

 

Kenley Jansen had 38 saves in 42 chances.

 

Kimbrel had 47 saves in 52 chances.

 

Any reason to believe if we had Jansen or Chapman, the Sox would have had less than 52 chances for their closer?

 

I'll confess that I looked at the total saves and didn't consider the total chances. My point remains though that 'Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one."

 

I don't doubt that there are numerous closers out there who would pitch for less money and save fewer games. If saving money has a higher priority than winning the WS then by all means the Sox should sign anyone to do the job or fill it internally 'on the cheap'. I know there is debate as to whether it's worthwhile to pay the money for a known successful closer but it seems foolhardy to me for the World Series Champions to experiment with an unknown quantity as a closer.

 

Craig Kimbrel may not be the answer because of the salary limitations but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of signing him without giving it a good try. 52 wins with Kimbrel's name on this is still 52 wins.

[notin]

I'll confess that I looked at the total saves and didn't consider the total chances. My point remains though that 'Not having a lights-out closer isn't a big deal... until you don't have one."

 

I don't doubt that there are numerous closers out there who would pitch for less money and save fewer games. If saving money has a higher priority than winning the WS then by all means the Sox should sign anyone to do the job or fill it internally 'on the cheap'. I know there is debate as to whether it's worthwhile to pay the money for a known successful closer but it seems foolhardy to me for the World Series Champions to experiment with an unknown quantity as a closer.

 

Craig Kimbrel may not be the answer because of the salary limitations but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of signing him without giving it a good try. 52 wins with Kimbrel's name on this is still 52 wins.

 

No one has said the Sox shouldn't get an experienced closer. Except Dombrowski, who suggested they might try Barnes or Brasier in the role. (This was likely a negotiating tactic.)

 

But Kimbrel isn't the only closer. And the Sox do have a lot of very key core players with arbitration and free agency pending, And whether you want to admit it or not, there is most definitely a spending limit at some point. Is Kimbrel, who apparently has his targets set at being the highest paid closer ever, really the best use of money? Last time the Sox had a closer who insisted on being the highest paid ever, they moved on as well, And given Papelbon's mediocre performance in Philly, it was the right move...

[OH FOY]

Here's what concerns me about Kimbrel. From June 1st till last day of season, 37 games, pitched 37.1 innings (This is important), had 25 BB's. With 16 hits. 41 runners he put on base, between walks and hits, in 37.1 innings.

He basically put a runner on base every time he closed, the last 4 Months. That's not Lights Out Closer stuff, as far as I'm concerned.

He's got only 1 thing going his way for now. He doesn't give up HRS YET. 3 HRS only in 37.1.

 

Including those last few Months, AND including this last Post-Season, is he trending the other way. I think he is, he throws a lot of pitches to get 3 Outs now, at least that how it seems to me. And that's not good.

 

I cannot remember Rivera struggle that much, for so long, finding the plate...Be Careful.

[OH FOY]

I might have Out of the Box thinking, and do a John Smoltz, make Nathan Eovaldi our Closer (At least for now). Save the Money on Kimbrel, and see if you make a decent proposal to him, if he would go for it. Edited November 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[cp176]

I have mixed feelings about an attempt to resign Kimbrel. I love what he has done for us but ...

As for signing Eovaldi and then thinking about making him a closer - sorry - doesn't work for me. Which is tougher to find, a quality starter or closer and also which is more important. I go with the starter. Keep Eovaldi right where he is. When I looked out in that bullpen and saw Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, and Sale out there, I thought to myself - closers get found from people who have tried and often failed to be starters. Or on occasion once were quality starters who were just aging. You will overpay probably for any player including a closer but let's not go crazy and overpay. If a case is going to made to try and turn Eovaldi into a closer i could make an argument to turn Sale, Porcello, and Price into one just as easily which I wouldn't do.

[OH FOY]

The way Baseball is trending, all you might need is 2 Starters on a Team, and a Strong Bullpen. Be a hell of a lot cheaper.

 

Sometimes as a Executive you got to think Outside the Box, instead of the Traditional way, is all I'm saying.

Edited November 3, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Station 13]

MLBTR prediction we sign Eovaldi Four years, $60MM.

[OH FOY]

MLBTR prediction we sign Eovaldi Four years, $60MM.

 

Anything on Kimbrel there?

[cp176]

The way Baseball is trending, all you might need is 2 Starters on a Team, and a Strong Bullpen. Be a hell of a lot cheaper.

 

Sometimes as a Executive you got to think Outside the Box, instead of the Traditional way, is all I'm saying.

 

true

[jacksonianmarch]

Rivera never struggled finding the plate. Rivera struggled when he’d give up a couple jam shots and have a runner in scoring position with less than two outs. He’d rarely give up long balls or walks. But with how much contact he’d give up, he would get into trouble that way

[jacksonianmarch]

Anything on Kimbrel there?

 

 

Cardinals.

 

They expect Miller to return to Boston

[Station 13]

Cardinals.

 

They expect Miller to return to Boston

 

I would pass on Miller. His walks are back up, and lots of DL.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Station 13

[jacksonianmarch]

Which is why the prediction is for $9 mil a year for him. If he hit FA after 2017, he’d have gotten $18 mil AAV easy

[S5Dewey]

Here's what concerns me about Kimbrel. From June 1st till last day of season, 37 games, pitched 37.1 innings (This is important), had 25 BB's. With 16 hits. 41 runners he put on base, between walks and hits, in 37.1 innings.

He basically put a runner on base every time he closed, the last 4 Months. That's not Lights Out Closer stuff, as far as I'm concerned.

He's got only 1 thing going his way for now. He doesn't give up HRS YET. 3 HRS only in 37.1.

 

Including those last few Months, AND including this last Post-Season, is he trending the other way. I think he is, he throws a lot of pitches to get 3 Outs now, at least that how it seems to me. And that's not good.

 

I cannot remember Rivera struggle that much, for so long, finding the plate...Be Careful.

 

Yes. We have the same concerns here. To paraphrase an old nursery rhyme, when Kimbrel is good he's very good and when he's bad he's horrid. Obviously I haven't stood up there with a bat in my hand trying to hit his pitches but watching the K-Zone it's apparent that he gets a lot of swings and misses on pitches outside of the strike zone. What I don't know is whether those pitches go where Kimbrel wants them to go, or if he just throws pitches in the vicinity of the plate and the break on them is so hard to recognize that they all appear to be strikes as they come in.

 

Were I an opposing hitter I'd at least be making him throw more strikes. I'd be taking more pitches once I get to a two-strike count. I'd pick up more K's but I'd also pick up more BB's.

 

I still keep asking myself if we got so spoiled by Koji that we expect our closer to be Koji #2.

 

IMO there is no clear-cut answer to the issue of signing Kimbrel. I agree that he *might* be on the downside but again, 52 wins is still 52 wins. Regardless of what their name is, if our closer had 10 fewer saves/wins we wouldn't have won the AL East.

[notin]

I might have Out of the Box thinking, and do a John Smoltz, make Nathan Eovaldi our Closer (At least for now). Save the Money on Kimbrel, and see if you make a decent proposal to him, if he would go for it.

 

There are reasons to do that and reasons not to. The primary reason not to is if he might not want to convert to closer and this suggestion makes him sign elsewhere.

 

The idea of converting a starter to closer is certainly not a bad one. in fact, most closers were starters at one point, including Mariano Rivera (8 starts, 50 IP, 3-3, 5.94). I've suggested two other candidates for that, in Garrett Richards and Matt Harvey...

[notin]

I would pass on Miller. His walks are back up, and lots of DL.

 

Cleveland isn't offering him a QO, which means they fear he would accept it...

[Nick]

Our starters need to grow up. It's not their call to decide who should catch them. That decision is up to Cora.

 

If I'm Vazquez, I tell Sale or whoever to GO f*** OFF. You want Leon to catch? f*** YOU. That's how I would feel. They're still bunch of prima donnas. Yeah, that's really being a good teammate.

 

Nope I don't JD in right field on the days I'm pitching. In ten years, it'll be in their contract.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

Our starters need to grow up. It's not their call to decide who should catch them. That decision is up to Cora.

 

If I'm Vazquez, I tell Sale or whoever to GO f*** OFF. You want Leon to catch? f*** YOU. That's how I would feel. They're still bunch of prima donnas. Yeah, that's really being a good teammate.

 

Cora is the one making the call. He fills out the lineup card.

 

It doesn't matter if Sale says "I want Sandy" or not. Cora still makes out the lineup. He can put Holt behind the plate if he wants to.

 

Why are you blaming the pitchers here?