And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

Bullpen thoughts:

 

We make kimbrel a qualifying offer, but no doubt he moves on.

 

Then we trade for the reds closer. Maybe move chavis, dalbec and houck for him.

 

Kelly will probably move along as well with a chance to be a closer somewhere.

 

No doubt in my mind that come August, unless injured, we will see durbin and/or Hernandez in Boston. Durbin is the perfect 8th inning guy.

 

No need to waste limited prospects on a closer when there are numerous options on the free agent market. Britton, Allen, Familia, Herrera, Kintzler, Ramos, Rosenthal, Soria to name a few...

[notin]

I wouldn't trade for a closer, not when the Red Sox could find one in free agency (perhaps Zach Britton) and likely have a future closer in their minor league system in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer to Feltman. They could sign Britton to a one year pillow contract that would allow Britton to reestablish his value as a closer, something he didn't do on the Yankees last season.

 

The Kinsler trade was a bad move--gave up Ty Buttrey for a washed up player. However, Dombrowski was a genius for trading for Eovaldi and Pearce. He is clearly the best GM in baseball.

 

I'm not saying the Red Sox will sign Bryce Harper but they should at least inquire into his services and see how high the offers are going. Theoretically, the Red Sox could trade Bradley Jr., move Betts to CF, and open up a spot for Harper in RF. JD Martinez will probably opt out after the 2019 season, freeing up money and there is no guarantee the Red Sox will resign Bogaerts. At the end of the day, I think Harper is going to the Phillies for over 400 million. The Phillies have the resources to get it done and are eager to spend and compete again.

 

I like the strategy of trading Porcello and resigning Eovaldi. One thing for certain, the Yankees have little chance to sign Eovaldi--after all, Cashman dumped him when he needed TJ surgery. I doubt Eovaldi has any interest in returning to an organization that treated him like that.

 

I wouldn't make Kimbrel a qualifying offer. There is a chance he may accept it.

 

Kimbrel’s is reportedly looking for 5/$100mill. While he may not get that much, he will definitely come closer to it than the he will to the value of a QO...

[notin]

One intriguing reclamation project is Trevor Rosenthal, who is definitely a Dombrowski type pitcher. Maybe not as a closer, but certainly as a late inning reliever...

[notin]

Eovaldi is gonna get more than Rich Hill money. Hill was 35 when he signed. Eovaldi will be 29 in February.

 

Rich Hill had a lot of injuries, but did he have two T.J. surgeries?

[Hitch]

No need to waste limited prospects on a closer when there are numerous options on the free agent market. Britton, Allen, Familia, Herrera, Kintzler, Ramos, Rosenthal, Soria to name a few...

 

Yeah the options for closer on the free agent market seem pretty stacked this year. I'm betting at least some will take money lower than they originally would have thought they could get.

[moonslav59]

You never cease to impress me with the stuff you can pull up. Do you remember all this, or do you have it stored in files somewhere?

 

I remember a lot of it. I do not store much, but at times, I'll go back and find an old post to copy and paste.

 

For this post, I went to soxprospects.com and looked at our drafts since 2004.

 

http://soxprospects.com/dh.htm

 

This stuff fascinates me and feeds my OCD.

 

 

[moonslav59]

No need to waste limited prospects on a closer when there are numerous options on the free agent market. Britton, Allen, Familia, Herrera, Kintzler, Ramos, Rosenthal, Soria to name a few...

 

While I agree in principle, trading for a closer type could save millions on what I assume will be a a limited or restricted winter spending budget.

[OH FOY]

One intriguing reclamation project is Trevor Rosenthal, who is definitely a Dombrowski type pitcher. Maybe not as a closer, but certainly as a late inning reliever...

 

This is a good gamble, like this thinking. He was a Closer, so if he performs, he could always go back to Closer role.

[notin]

While I agree in principle, trading for a closer type could save millions on what I assume will be a a limited or restricted winter spending budget.

 

Generally my thoughts are: sign the closer (trade demands are typically crazy high relative to what closers bring and they typically sign shorter deals) and trade for a starter (starters usually demand more years than you want them for as free agents and more often justify high trade prices).

 

This is just a general guideline...

[moonslav59]

Generally my thoughts are: sign the closer (trade demands are typically crazy high relative to what closers bring and they typically sign shorter deals) and trade for a starter (starters usually demand more years than you want them for as free agents and more often justify high trade prices).

 

This is just a general guideline...

 

Ideally, you find some non closer and work some magic to create a top closer. Many teams find their closers that way, including us with Uehara, who was our 3rd or 4th string closer in 2013.

 

Closer costs have sky-rocketed at a much higher pace than starters, so I think your guideline might be a bit outdated.

 

Some of the marginal names you mentioned as possible closers for us in 2019 might be good ideas. maybe signing 2 of the guys you listed, instead of Kimbrel and Kelly might get the job done.

 

Is it me, of does it seem like July deals look better than ever before.

 

We got Eovaldi and Pearce for peanuts, although one could argue E-O's numbers were not all that great before the trade (or even after).

[notin]

Ideally, you find some non closer and work some magic to create a top closer. Many teams find their closers that way, including us with Uehara, who was our 3rd or 4th string closer in 2013.

 

Closer costs have sky-rocketed at a much higher pace than starters, so I think your guideline might be a bit outdated.

 

Some of the marginal names you mentioned as possible closers for us in 2019 might be good ideas. maybe signing 2 of the guys you listed, instead of Kimbrel and Kelly might get the job done.

 

Is it me, of does it seem like July deals look better than ever before.

 

We got Eovaldi and Pearce for peanuts, although one could argue E-O's numbers were not all that great before the trade (or even after).

 

The guideline is not outdated because closers still get fewer years. Even Chapman only got 5, while top tier starters get 7. Wade Davis got only 3.

 

But if you like experimental closers, I think free agent Garrett Richards is a good fit. His arm can’t handle starting anymore, so maybe the role will suit him. He certainly has the talent...

[redsoxrules]

Kimbrel’s is reportedly looking for 5/$100mill. While he may not get that much, he will definitely come closer to it than the he will to the value of a QO...

 

Its foolish to pay someone 20 MIL a year for 5 years who only gives you about 65 innings a year.

 

I'd rather pass and give the job to either Kelly, brasier or barnes.

[a700hitter]

This is a good gamble, like this thinking. He was a Closer, so if he performs, he could always go back to Closer role.

He is disaster. I don't have much confidence in him returning to what he once was.

 

I'd be tempted to stick with Kimbrel who probably lowered his market value with his 2018 performance. I think that he really got off on the wrong footing in Spring Training missing most of it, because of his infant's severe life threatening health condition. I don't think that he ever got fully back on track from that. Even in an off-year, he is better than 9 out of 10 closers.

[dgalehouse]

No need to waste limited prospects on a closer when there are numerous options on the free agent market. Britton, Allen, Familia, Herrera, Kintzler, Ramos, Rosenthal, Soria to name a few...

 

A lot of closers on the market for sure. Quantity , but maybe some questionable quality there.

[notin]

He is disaster. I don't have much confidence in him returning to what he once was.

 

I'd be tempted to stick with Kimbrel who probably lowered his market value with his 2018 performance. I think that he really got off on the wrong footing in Spring Training missing most of it, because of his infant's severe life threatening health condition. I don't think that he ever got fully back on track from that. Even in an off-year, he is better than 9 out of 10 closers.

 

I’m somewhat confident DD will be involved on Kimbrel. But signing Rosenthal is really more of a gamble on getting another power arm at the back of the bullpen, not to make him an instant closer. More for a Hembree/Kelly role.

 

Of course, who knows what shape his arm is actually in...

[sk7326]

I wouldn't trade for a closer, not when the Red Sox could find one in free agency (perhaps Zach Britton) and likely have a future closer in their minor league system in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer to Feltman. They could sign Britton to a one year pillow contract that would allow Britton to reestablish his value as a closer, something he didn't do on the Yankees last season.

 

The Kinsler trade was a bad move--gave up Ty Buttrey for a washed up player. However, Dombrowski was a genius for trading for Eovaldi and Pearce. He is clearly the best GM in baseball.

 

I'm not saying the Red Sox will sign Bryce Harper but they should at least inquire into his services and see how high the offers are going. Theoretically, the Red Sox could trade Bradley Jr., move Betts to CF, and open up a spot for Harper in RF. JD Martinez will probably opt out after the 2019 season, freeing up money and there is no guarantee the Red Sox will resign Bogaerts. At the end of the day, I think Harper is going to the Phillies for over 400 million. The Phillies have the resources to get it done and are eager to spend and compete again.

 

I like the strategy of trading Porcello and resigning Eovaldi. One thing for certain, the Yankees have little chance to sign Eovaldi--after all, Cashman dumped him when he needed TJ surgery. I doubt Eovaldi has any interest in returning to an organization that treated him like that.

 

I wouldn't make Kimbrel a qualifying offer. There is a chance he may accept it.

 

If he accepted it, I'd be fine - nothing wrong with having a good reliever on a 1-year deal. I don't think he accepts it though. Trading Porcello now actually makes some sense - he is priced reasonably (not a bargain - but not overpaid) and only 1 year left.

[a700hitter]

A lot of closers on the market for sure. Quantity , but maybe some questionable quality there.

I think that there is a good chance that they will all wait for Kimbrel to sign to set the market. I think that the high quantity of available closers will bring down the market, but the closer market has defied supply and demand in prior years.

[a700hitter]

If he accepted it, I'd be fine - nothing wrong with having a good reliever on a 1-year deal. I don't think he accepts it though. Trading Porcello now actually makes some sense - he is priced reasonably (not a bargain - but not overpaid) and only 1 year left.

Exactly, a one year deal would be a good get.

[dgalehouse]

If we could keep this same group together , we would have a good chance to repeat. However , that is almost certainly not financially possible or even practical. It will be up to Dombrowski to adequately fill the holes.

[moonslav59]

If we could keep this same group together , we would have a good chance to repeat. However , that is almost certainly not financially possible or even practical. It will be up to Dombrowski to adequately fill the holes.

 

Henry would have to okay spending $15-20M more this year and pay the increased tax rate for not only going over the $40M mark, but for being over the luxury tax limit for another consecutive year.

 

Maybe, it's not impossible, if the plan is to totally reset after 2019 or 2020, but that would mean blowing the team up and more cliff talk.

[a700hitter]

Henry would have to okay spending $15-20M more this year and pay the increased tax rate for not only going over the $40M mark, but for being over the luxury tax limit for another consecutive year.

 

Maybe, it's not impossible, if the plan is to totally reset after 2019 or 2020, but that would mean blowing the team up and more cliff talk.

We still have $18 million of Pablo hanging over our heads.

[moonslav59]

If he accepted it, I'd be fine - nothing wrong with having a good reliever on a 1-year deal. I don't think he accepts it though. Trading Porcello now actually makes some sense - he is priced reasonably (not a bargain - but not overpaid) and only 1 year left.

 

I wouldn't trade Porcello, so we can keep Kimbrel, and if we weren't looking at an open window for 1-2 more years, I'd like the trade idea more.

[moonslav59]

We still have $18 million of Pablo hanging over our heads.

 

Yes, and that goes down to $5M in 2020, but to reset the tax in 2020 or 2021 would mean drastic changes to our roster.

[a700hitter]

Do we bring back both Vasquez and Leon? It would make sense to make room for Swihart.

[Bellhorn04]

We still have $18 million of Pablo hanging over our heads.

 

Just one more year and we'll be free!

[Maxbialystock]

Here we go again, the hot stove league.

 

I would like to inform one and all that:

 

1) you guys do not do this just in the offseason--prospects, deals, trades, etc are a regular source of discussion throughout the season;

 

2) the season is over and there will be no games until April 1 or thereabouts, and to my way of thinking all these discussions are a distant second to the real thing.

[notin]

Do we bring back both Vasquez and Leon? It would make sense to make room for Swihart.

 

I think so.

 

And if the Sox do part with a catcher (either one), is Swihart really the best choice to fill the vacated role?

[a700hitter]

I think so.

 

And if the Sox do part with a catcher (either one), is Swihart really the best choice to fill the vacated role?

They have held onto Swihart for a long time. I have to believe that they have a plan for him, and there is no position for him other than catcher.

[notin]

Here we go again, the hot stove league.

 

I would like to inform one and all that:

 

1) you guys do not do this just in the offseason--prospects, deals, trades, etc are a regular source of discussion throughout the season;

 

2) the season is over and there will be no games until April 1 or thereabouts, and to my way of thinking all these discussions are a distant second to the real thing.

 

But Hot Stove discussions in baseball are much more fun than in any other sport...

[notin]

They have held onto Swihart for a long time. I have to believe that they have a plan for him, and there is no position for him other than catcher.

 

They might. There are certainly glimpses of promise in him. But if they break up Team Catcher Defense, it is one position they could potentially improve the offense...