And the off season begins (2018-19)

[moonslav59]

Oh I don't think that you meant it in the strictest sense of the word. The idea that Sale might have made such a demand was not started by you. I only mentioned it because I really believe that this team this year represents something very rare. Going forward I might be proven wrong. I get it when someone wants to start a rumor or hold a position based on hearsay - the old where there is smoke there is fire - but with respect to Sale and any of his teammates where is the smoke? Maybe this is where some numbnut brings up Sale's cutting of the shirt incident. I like a good rumor and am not immune to gossip but there has to be something that at least makes me think that there might be something to the rumor before I believe it.

This statement isn't directed at you at all Moon -

 

I'm thankful you pointed out my faulty lingo.

 

I do think there are varying degrees of asking for what they want, in terms of who their catcher should be. I think if a pitcher is very forceful in his wishes and the numbers back him up, any good manager would listen and probably do what the pitcher wants, because it is what is best for the team anyways.

[moonslav59]

Allen, Britton, Familia,Robertson, Ramos, Miller, Wilson. Soria, or Herrera. Or they could trade . A recent MLBTR chat proposed a Jose Leclerc-Michael Chavis trade that the moderator felt was close...

 

You don't like Ottavino enough to include him on your list?

[harmony]

Allen, Britton, Familia,Robertson, Ramos, Miller, Wilson. Soria, or Herrera. Or they could trade . A recent MLBTR chat proposed a Jose Leclerc-Michael Chavis trade that the moderator felt was close...

I question whether 23-year-old strikeout-prone Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, would be enough to land four years of a reliever who this year ranked fourth among all relievers with 2.5 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

As points of reference, this season Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes posted 1.5 and 1.3 fWAR, respectively.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

[OH FOY]

Any Pitcher in this year FA's class worth 20+ million a year?

[moonslav59]

Any Pitcher in this year FA's class worth 20+ million a year?

 

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts:

 

$21.5M x 6 Corbin

$20.5M x 4 Keuchel

$17.5M x 4 Kimbrel

$15M x 4 Eovaldi

$16M x 3 JA Happ

$16M x 2 Morton

[moonslav59]

I question whether 23-year-old strikeout-prone Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, would be enough to land four years of a reliever who this year ranked fourth among all relievers with 2.5 fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

As points of reference, this season Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes posted 1.5 and 1.3 fWAR, respectively.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

 

Most GMs do not look at just the most recent one year sample size. Leclerc sucked in 2016 and 2017. That being said, I don't think Chavis is enough to get Leclerc. Maybe Chavis and Shawryn could get it done.

 

[OH FOY]

Porcello at 20 million is a better deal then Corbin. Balls find the Bats with Corbin. 945 innings, 944 hits. No Thanks. With Boston Rick has pitched 789 innings and has given up 802 hits. Edited November 4, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Porcello at 20 million is a better deal then Corbin. Balls find the Bats with Corbin. 945 innings, 944 hits. No Thanks.

 

I'd prefer Porcello, too, but...

 

Porcello

 

1863 Innings, 1998 hits

 

with Boston:

 

990 Innings, 802 Hits

 

[OH FOY]

I can see a team going all in on Corbin. To me, his best season was this last one. Only 28, Left Hander, in Yankee Stadium, he might work. Yep, the Yanks will be in on him.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Allen, Britton, Familia,Robertson, Ramos, Miller, Wilson. Soria, or Herrera. Or they could trade . A recent MLBTR chat proposed a Jose Leclerc-Michael Chavis trade that the moderator felt was close...

 

There are plenty of options. The Red Sox could also resign Kelly and give him the role. The Red Sox don't need a long term closer--they already have that locked up in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer, a guy who can do the job for one season until Feltman is ready in 2020.

 

I would sign Britton to a one year pillow contract. Throw extra cash in the contract to entice Britton to sign a one year deal. If he rediscovers his dominant form, the Red Sox can get a pick for Britton next year.

 

The thing that many people are overlooking is just how well Dombrowski has rebuilt the farm system. The Red Sox must have the best farm system in baseball that no one talks about. The Red Sox have several future major league starters in the system, Groome, Houck, Shawaryn. A future closer in Feltman. And future infield starters such as Casas (long ways away), Dalbec (could be ready in 2020 for 1b or 3b), Flores (long ways away), Chatham (perhaps a future starter at 2b, could be ready in 2020), Ockimey (could be ready in 2020), and Lakins (profiles as an above average set up reliever).

 

It wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to offer Pearce anything more than a one year contract; Dalbec and Ockimey will be cheap options at first base in 2020. Moreland has only one year remaining on his contract.

 

While the Red Sox have some promising minor league infielders, their minor league outfielders really suck, it is a weakness in the organization, but two of the three OF spots are locked up long term: Benintenti & Betts. I'm not sure about Bradley. For some players, defense declines rather early and Bradley's bat doesn't carry him.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

Corbin really changed who he was this past year. He came up a sinkerballer with good success. He was predominantly a 4 seamer/ sinker guy with a sub 20% slider. Now he’s an absolute enigma. He throws his slider more than any other pitch. His 4 seamer is used less than 20% of the time. He’s at 28% sinkers. He has added a curve that was very effective that he throws just a touch less than 10% of the time. The increased sinker usage, the drop in the 4 seamer rate and the speed change of that curve changed who he is as a pitcher. His 2018 should have been better when you look at FIP and xFIP.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I like what I saw from Vazquez in the playoffs--I think he has regained his starter's role at Catcher. I can live with Sandy Leon as the backup C. I would trade Swihart, but I would expect a really good prospect in return. I don't think the Red Sox can get an elite prospect for Swihart but I do think they can get a player who profiles as a starting major league player.

[notin]

You don't like Ottavino enough to include him on your list?

 

As a closer?

 

He’d be the least experienced name on he list.

 

If the Sox sign him, do you expect him to close?

[moonslav59]

There are plenty of options. The Red Sox could also resign Kelly and give him the role. The Red Sox don't need a long term closer--they already have that locked up in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer, a guy who can do the job for one season until Feltman is ready in 2020. I would sign Britton to a one year pillow contract. Throw extra cash in the contract to entice Britton to sign a one year deal. If he rediscovers his dominant form, the Red Sox can get a pick for Britton next year.

 

It's funny, to me, how a guy like Kelly, who most of us didn't want to even be on the playoff rosters, is now being considered as a possible replacement for Kimbrel.

 

I'm not high on Britton, but I think he has a better shot of being a capable closer than Kelly does. He might just go for a one year deal, but if we are looking to reset the tax after 2020, we can go 2 years, if needed.

 

 

The thing that many people are overlooking is just how well Dombrowski has rebuilt the farm system. The Red Sox must have the best farm system in baseball that no one talks about. The Red Sox have several future major league starters in the system, Groome, Houck, Shawaryn. A future closer in Feltman. And future infield starters such as Casas (long ways away), Dalbec (could be ready in 2020 for 1b or 3b), Flores (long ways away), Chatham (perhaps a future starter at 2b, could be ready in 2020), Ockimey (could be ready in 2020), and Lakins (profiles as an above average set up reliever).

 

I disagree. I realize DD has not had any high draft picks and started off with a year of international FA signing ban, and he's done pretty good under those circumstances, but I see our farm as being very weak. Plus, our best prospects just had surgery or PED suspensions. I'm not too optimistic about any prospect helping the big team in the next year or two. Beyond that, it's hard to project.

 

It wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to offer Pearce anything more than a one year contract; Dalbec and Ockimey will be cheap options at first base in 2020. Moreland has only one year remaining on his contract.

 

My guess is we let Ockimey & Chavis fight for a 25 man roster slot in 2019. If neither does well, we will look to trade for a platoon 1Bman again next summer.

 

 

While the Red Sox have some promising minor league infielders, their minor league outfielders really suck, it is a weakness in the organization, but two of the three OF spots are locked up long term: Benintenti & Betts. I'm not sure about Bradley. For some players, defense declines rather early and Bradley's bat doesn't carry him.

 

JBj has 2 more years of control and hit over .830 over his last 81 games. I'm hopeful his bat will be fine going forward. Over the past 3-4 years, his bat has been a plus, when compared to other MLB CF'ers.

 

I think we tend to remember the recent good sample sizes for guys like Kelly, Brasier and Barnes, but neglect to credit guys like JBJ for much longer sample sizes of good play. Just my perception.

[harmony]

Most GMs do not look at just the most recent one year sample size. Leclerc sucked in 2016 and 2017. That being said, I don't think Chavis is enough to get Leclerc. Maybe Chavis and Shawryn could get it done.

 

Hypothetically, would the Red Sox deal high by trading three years of 28-year-old Matt Barnes for prospects the caliber of 23-year-old Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, and 24-year-old Mike Shawaryn, with a Future Value of only 40?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa738524&position=P

 

Chavis and Shawaryn are long shots to become MLB contributors.

 

I ask because the early 2019 Steamer projections have Jose Leclerc and Barnes with 0.7 and 0.8 WAR, respectively, each in 65 innings. The nearly 25-year-old Leclerc has four years of team control to Barnes' three years.

Edited November 4, 2018 by harmony

[notin]

There are plenty of options. The Red Sox could also resign Kelly and give him the role. The Red Sox don't need a long term closer--they already have that locked up in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer, a guy who can do the job for one season until Feltman is ready in 2020.

 

 

Can we let Feltman pitch an inning or two above A-ball before anointing him closer of the future? You know, just to be sure he isn’t Craig Hansen 2.0...

[moonslav59]

I like what I saw from Vazquez in the playoffs--I think he has regained his starter's role at Catcher. I can live with Sandy Leon as the backup C. I would trade Swihart, but I would expect a really good prospect in return. I don't think the Red Sox can get an elite prospect for Swihart but I do think they can get a player who profiles as a starting major league player.

 

I can see Vazquez catching 4 starters and Leon just Sale. Maybe let Leon catch Price here and there, when Vaz needs a breather.

 

I'm thinking we might trade Swihart and Johnson (both out of options) for a better 6th starter or a decent Rp'er... not a prospect.

[moonslav59]

Hypothetically, would the Red Sox deal high by trading three years of 28-year-old Matt Barnes for prospects the caliber of 23-year-old Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, and 24-year-old Mike Shawaryn, with a Future Value of only 40?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa738524&position=P

 

Chavis and Shawaryn are long shots to become MLB contributors.

 

I ask because the early 2019 Steamer projections have Jose Leclerc and Barnes with 0.7 and 0.8 WAR, respectively, each in 65 innings. The nearly 25-year-old Leclerc has four years of team control to Barnes' three years.

 

1) Barnes has been good for more than 1 year.

 

2) We are not looking to rebuild: Texas is.

[harmony]

1) Barnes has been good for more than 1 year.

 

2) We are not looking to rebuild: Texas is.

1. which is why the Steamer projections are so similar even though this year Jose Leclerc nearly doubled Matt Barnes' career-best fWAR

2. a rebuilding team is unlikely to trade four years of a valuable asset in Leclerc for lottery tickets in Michael Chavis and Mike Shawaryn

[moonslav59]

1. which is why the Steamer projections are so similar even though this year Jose Leclerc nearly doubled Matt Barnes' career-best fWAR

2. a rebuilding team is unlikely to trade four years of a valuable asset in Leclerc for lottery tickets in Michael Chavis and Mike Shawaryn

 

I'm not a big fan of these WAR projection services.

 

I'm more about 2-3 year sample sizes not one year.

 

One never knows how much other GMs value players like Chavis and Shawaryn. Maybe it might take Chavis and Johnson or Chavis, Workman & Shawaryn.

[harmony]

I'm not a big fan of these WAR projection services.

 

I'm more about 2-3 year sample sizes not one year.

 

One never knows how much other GMs value players like Chavis and Shawaryn. Maybe it might take Chavis and Johnson or Chavis, Workman & Shawaryn.

Indeed we don't know how each front office values individual players.

 

For all we know, in a trade of four years of Jose Leclerc, the Rangers could demand three years of Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 2018 fWAR fell short of Leclerc's but whose 2019 Steamer projection triples that of Leclerc.

 

Seattle could make available two years of righthander Alex Colome, who in 2017 led the American League in saves pitching in the AL East. However, I don't see a good match for a trade with the Red Sox.

Edited November 4, 2018 by harmony

[cp176]

There are plenty of options. The Red Sox could also resign Kelly and give him the role. The Red Sox don't need a long term closer--they already have that locked up in Feltman. The Red Sox need a bridge closer, a guy who can do the job for one season until Feltman is ready in 2020.

 

I would sign Britton to a one year pillow contract. Throw extra cash in the contract to entice Britton to sign a one year deal. If he rediscovers his dominant form, the Red Sox can get a pick for Britton next year.

 

The thing that many people are overlooking is just how well Dombrowski has rebuilt the farm system. The Red Sox must have the best farm system in baseball that no one talks about. The Red Sox have several future major league starters in the system, Groome, Houck, Shawaryn. A future closer in Feltman. And future infield starters such as Casas (long ways away), Dalbec (could be ready in 2020 for 1b or 3b), Flores (long ways away), Chatham (perhaps a future starter at 2b, could be ready in 2020), Ockimey (could be ready in 2020), and Lakins (profiles as an above average set up reliever).

 

It wouldn't make sense for the Red Sox to offer Pearce anything more than a one year contract; Dalbec and Ockimey will be cheap options at first base in 2020. Moreland has only one year remaining on his contract.

 

While the Red Sox have some promising minor league infielders, their minor league outfielders really suck, it is a weakness in the organization, but two of the three OF spots are locked up long term: Benintenti & Betts. I'm not sure about Bradley. For some players, defense declines rather early and Bradley's bat doesn't carry him.

 

A good positive post. I agree with you about the current farm being under rated. Dombrowski and team have done an excellent job starting to get us back on track. I don't have to tell you that DD won't get any credit from some based solely upon personal opinions of what he has done in the way back past. He is as good as there is in the game with respect to the things GMs do.

[notin]

A good positive post. I agree with you about the current farm being under rated. Dombrowski and team have done an excellent job starting to get us back on track. I don't have to tell you that DD won't get any credit from some based solely upon personal opinions of what he has done in the way back past. He is as good as there is in the game with respect to the things GMs do.

 

The organizations that rate farm systems don’t use the history of the GM; they scouts d evaluate all the players in the farm system. Exactly what are you basing this positive appraisal of the farm system on?

[harmony]

A good positive post. I agree with you about the current farm being under rated. Dombrowski and team have done an excellent job starting to get us back on track. I don't have to tell you that DD won't get any credit from some based solely upon personal opinions of what he has done in the way back past. He is as good as there is in the game with respect to the things GMs do.

Farm systems probably are overrated.

 

Fifteen or 20 years ago prospects may have represented a market inefficiency. But like in most markets, the inefficiency disappears when many market players recognize the inefficiency. Attempts to capitalize on that inefficiency drive up the demand to the point the market may be overrated.

 

I suspect Dave Dombrowski and other general managers recognized the overheated market for prospects and instead traded those overvalued assets for MLB-ready players.

 

And Dombrowski has enjoyed some success.

[jacksonianmarch]

This has become a very funny thread. “Farm systems are overrated” was just tapped into the comment section and reply was clicked. How in the ever living hell did anyone actually post that and be serious?

 

The Sox built a farm system by being the worst team in the ALE 3 of 4 seasons. They used that farm system to either fill out their roster or deal off for marquis players. It is exactly the reason why you won the title. The dearth of good players in the farm system is why the cliff exists because home grown talent eventually becomes expensive and you need to select which guys to spend on. If your farm hasn’t generated appropriate replacements, then you’re looking at either spending a shitload or hoping for career years out of players. It has happened (2013) but it is a rare event.

 

The Sox farm is desolate. With Groome down and Chavis using roids, the Sox are without a top 100 prospect. There are a few relievers in their minors that have good stuff and may end up making an impact. Otherwise, DD has done a reasonable job in the INTL market trying to build from the very bottom and grow a farm without high draft picks or very high INTL bonuses. It takes years for that. The INTL guys take 4-5 years to make it to AAA and usually need to be added to the 40 man well before you’d have them debut just due to their age.

[jacksonianmarch]

And in terms of farm building, Theo was a master of getting the comp picks for players and hitting on them. Ben wasn’t as good. Well, for big market clubs, those comp picks are far later. If the Sox lose Kimbrel, they get a comp pick after the fourth round due to their salary expenditures. That’s almost useless in return

[notin]

This has become a very funny thread. “Farm systems are overrated” was just tapped into the comment section and reply was clicked. How in the ever living hell did anyone actually post that and be serious?

 

The Sox built a farm system by being the worst team in the ALE 3 of 4 seasons. They used that farm system to either fill out their roster or deal off for marquis players. It is exactly the reason why you won the title. The dearth of good players in the farm system is why the cliff exists because home grown talent eventually becomes expensive and you need to select which guys to spend on. If your farm hasn’t generated appropriate replacements, then you’re looking at either spending a shitload or hoping for career years out of players. It has happened (2013) but it is a rare event.

 

The Sox farm is desolate. With Groome down and Chavis using roids, the Sox are without a top 100 prospect. There are a few relievers in their minors that have good stuff and may end up making an impact. Otherwise, DD has done a reasonable job in the INTL market trying to build from the very bottom and grow a farm without high draft picks or very high INTL bonuses. It takes years for that. The INTL guys take 4-5 years to make it to AAA and usually need to be added to the 40 man well before you’d have them debut just due to their age.

 

That’s not true anymore because teams are no longer willing to use a Rule 5 pick on a 19yo and then try to hold him on the 25 man roster for a full season just so they can hope he pans out, and then if he does he gets to arbitration a year earlier and gets too expensive took fast...

[cp176]

The organizations that rate farm systems don’t use the history of the GM; they scouts d evaluate all the players in the farm system. Exactly what are you basing this positive appraisal of the farm system on?

 

My personal opinions. I'm ok with you relying on all things data related to rate anything and everything. I realize that my opinions don't necessarily amount too much in the world that you live in. I'm ok with that. You see notin I'm that guy who enjoys reading your personal opinions that are not based on someone elses factual proof of anything. I'm petty sure that to you my postings do not appear credible most of the time but oh well I'm likely not stopping anytime soon.

[notin]

My personal opinions. I'm ok with you relying on all things data related to rate anything and everything. I realize that my opinions don't necessarily amount too much in the world that you live in. I'm ok with that. You see notin I'm that guy who enjoys reading your personal opinions that are not based on someone elses factual proof of anything. I'm petty sure that to you my postings do not appear credible most of the time but oh well I'm likely not stopping anytime soon.

 

It’s one thing to have opinions that are contrarian, unsupported or unpopular. It’s another to accuse anyone who disagrees with your opinions of having an agenda...

[cp176]

It’s one thing to have opinions that are contrarian, unsupported or unpopular. It’s another to accuse anyone who disagrees with your opinions of having an agenda...

 

...I take from this post that I am accusing someone of having some sort of agenda? I'm ok with that to. You just see right through me. For all of this time, I just thought that I was another member of the forum who really didn't appreciate the condescending tone coming from those amongst us who are never wrong because they can prove it with their data...