And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

I wouldn't say that.

 

He was the starting catcher for the champs. Cora showed trust in him as a defender, giving him most of the starts in the playoffs.

 

His contract is very reasonable.

 

But his value would depend on how other GM's value his defense.

 

It's all kind of a non-issue anyway...

 

It might not be a non-issue.

 

The Mariners have a couple players the Sox should like. Both might be reaches for Vazquez (assuming he is the target). But I’d say there is a mild possibility of a deal.

 

My personal preference is to move Swihart if any of them have to go. But if a good trade can be found for Vazquez, I assume DD will listen...

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't say that.

 

He was the starting catcher for the champs. Cora showed trust in him as a defender, giving him most of the starts in the playoffs.

 

His contract is very reasonable.

 

But his value would depend on how other GM's value his defense.

 

It's all kind of a non-issue anyway...

 

I think the fact that Cora went almost primarily with Vaz over Leon, despite Sandy actually getting a few hits in the playoffs was telling.

 

Here are the season numbers with our starters:

 

Porcello

785 PAs .693 OPS against with Leon

0 PAs with Vaz

 

Sale

426 PAs/.515 OPS w/Leon

191 PAs/.569 OPS w/Vaz

 

Price

328 PAs/.587 w/Leon

394 PAs/.780 w/Vaz

 

Eovaldi

146 PAs/.697 w/Leon

65 PAs/.436 w/Vaz

 

ERod

46 PAs/.380 w/Leon

507/.709 w/Vaz

 

Except for Price and maybe Eovaldi, it was obvious we used a personal caddy method for our starters. That was changed a little bit in the playoffs as Vaz stepped up his game.

[harmony]

Serious question or just razzing about the negative WAR?

Vazquez's 'long-term contract', of course, is only 3 years at about 4.5 mill. You only have to post an fWAR of about 0.6 to earn 4.5 mill these days...

 

Besides which, surely the defensive value of a catcher is one of the most difficult things to measure with WAR...

Serious question because, as notin wrote: "... there is a possibility of a deal, since the Mariners now have a need and the Sox have a surplus."

[moonslav59]

Oh you say that about all the Sox players. But a player’s true value in a trade depends on only two things, neither of which can be quantified statistically (although they might be justified that way).

 

The only true factors to determine trade value are

 

1) How badly Team A wants to acquire the player, and

2) How badly Team B wants to keep the player.

 

If the Mariners really want Vazquez, they offer more for him. If they don’t want him that much, they offer less and move on if it doesn’t meet the Sox demands...

 

How about how badly team B wants what team A is offering? Isn't that a big part of any deal, too?

[notin]

How about how badly team B wants what team A is offering? Isn't that a big part of any deal, too?

 

Absolutely. In that case, I just look at it from the other side and the simple corollary still works.

 

Or that could also be looked at as the willingness of Team A to meet the demands of Team B...

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Sox wanted to maximize his value, they’d have played him more over replacement level player Leon. It’s hard to ask for much when the offense is a pure minus.

[moonslav59]

Serious question because, as notin wrote: "... there is a possibility of a deal, since the Mariners now have a need and the Sox have a surplus."

 

Healy does not look like a great platoon with Moreland, since he barely hits lefties better than righties, but he's young and cost-controlled.

 

I guess the biggest question would be how serious Seattle is about starting over, and how much they like our prospects. They'd probably have to like them more than you and I. We don't have young OF help on the farm, and I seriously doubt this gets the deal done...

 

Trade:

2-Casas & Houck/D Hernandez or Ockimey & Groome

plus any 3 from- Chavis or Dalbec, Shawryn, Lakins, Decker, Mars or Duran

If there is interest in Johnson or Velazquez, maybe include one.

 

For:

Colome

Healy

[notin]

Serious question because, as notin wrote: "... there is a possibility of a deal, since the Mariners now have a need and the Sox have a surplus."

 

So what do you suppose the Mariners would be willing to trade for Vazquez? Or for Swihart?

[OH FOY]

This team had a unreal record when Vazquez was hurt for 8 weeks, and just Swihart and Leon as Catchers. DD might think about that. Most of those 8 weeks were without Sale too. Basically this team was without Vazquez and Sale, for 2 Months, and did better. Edited November 8, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

If the Sox wanted to maximize his value, they’d have played him more over replacement level player Leon. It’s hard to ask for much when the offense is a pure minus.

 

1) He was hurt for part of the year and probably would have made up the 19 PA differential had he been healthy.

2) Vaz struggled out of the gate, even with his defense. Maybe some personal issues affected his play.

 

Vaz started the year as the clear favorite, but after his struggles and injury, Leon passed him, only to flip again later in the season.

 

Month by month:

 

PA/OPS

APR

Vaz 82/.487

Leon 32/.285

MAY

Vaz 64/.409

Leon 44/.984

JUNE

Vaz 60/.860

Leon 42/.747

JULY

Leon 70/.427

Vaz 12/.167

AUG

Leon 64/.454

Vaz 0

SEP

Vaz 51/.499

Leon 36/.139

 

Playoffs

Vaz 36 PAs

Leon 15 PAs

 

As you can see, Vaz got more playing time, when healthy.

 

[notin]

Healy does not look like a great platoon with Moreland, since he barely hits lefties better than righties, but he's young and cost-controlled.

 

I guess the biggest question would be how serious Seattle is about starting over, and how much they like our prospects. They'd probably have to like them more than you and I. We don't have young OF help on the farm, and I seriously doubt this gets the deal done...

 

Trade:

2-Casas & Houck/D Hernandez or Ockimey & Groome

plus any 3 from- Chavis or Dalbec, Shawryn, Lakins, Decker, Mars or Duran

If there is interest in Johnson or Velazquez, maybe include one.

 

For:

Colome

Healy

 

If the Smith-Zunino trade is any indication, the Mariners appear to want controllable MLB players.

 

I could see either Healy or Colome as a match for Boston. But I would not empty the farm for both. Although if including Johnson got it done, I’m amenable...

[OH FOY]

Vazquez was hurt July 7th, and returned Sept. 1st. Exactly 8 weeks. One-third of the season.

[moonslav59]

This team had a unreal record when Vazquez was hurt for 8 weeks, and just Swihart and Leon as Catchers. DD might think about that. Most of those 8 weeks were without Sale too. Basically this team was without Vazquez and Sale, for 2 Months, and did better.

 

The Sox also started the season 17-2 with Vaz ctaching 14 of those 19 games.

 

Overall, the Sox were...

 

55-23 in Leon starts

46-21 when Vaz started

6-13 in Swihart starts.

 

I know Blake's sample size is small, but no way am I giving him 35-50 starts next year as our catcher.

[notin]

If the Sox wanted to maximize his value, they’d have played him more over replacement level player Leon. It’s hard to ask for much when the offense is a pure minus.

 

But when the defense is a pure minus like with Gary Sanchez, that’s different. Right?

[moonslav59]

If the Smith-Zunino trade is any indication, the Mariners appear to want controllable MLB players.

 

I could see either Healy or Colome as a match for Boston. But I would not empty the farm for both. Although if including Johnson got it done, I’m amenable...

 

Johnson, Swihart, Hembree, Ockimey and Houck?

 

Then, sign Ottavino and Kelly.

[OH FOY]

Saw both in the Minors, still think Swihart has more upside. Just never gets the chance.

[notin]

Johnson, Swihart, Hembree, Ockimey and Houck?

 

Then, sign Ottavino and Kelly.

 

See, I think you overvalue Colome (1 fWAR) and Healy (-0.8 fWAR).

[notin]

Saw both in the Minors, still think Swihart has more upside. Just never gets the chance.

 

Dombrowski seems to like him too. Not sure if he sees him as a starting catcher or ot...

[moonslav59]

See, I think you overvalue Colome (1 fWAR) and Healy (-0.8 fWAR).

 

...or undervalue the players I offered.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski seems to like him too. Not sure if he sees him as a starting catcher or ot...

 

This 2018 Sox team was tremendous. Going 6-13 in Swihart's catching games is very telling, despite the small sample size.

[moonslav59]

This 2018 Sox team was tremendous. Going 6-13 in Swihart's catching games is very telling, despite the small sample size.

 

Had the Sox just gone 10-9 in Swihart's starts, we might have had 112 wins!

[mvp 78]

Dombrowski seems to like him too. Not sure if he sees him as a starting catcher or ot...

 

Pumping up trade value?

[harmony]

If the Smith-Zunino trade is any indication, the Mariners appear to want controllable MLB players.

 

I could see either Healy or Colome as a match for Boston. But I would not empty the farm for both. Although if including Johnson got it done, I’m amenable...

Christian Vazquez presents an interesting valuation issue.

 

With his guaranteed money through 2021 a team could not get out from under the financial obligation by merely designating Vazquez for assignment if he does not rebound from his negative 0.8 fWAR season.

 

This year Seattle first baseman Ryon Healy matched Vazquez's negative 0.8 fWAR but can be cut at anytime. Healy remains under team control for four more seasons with a 2019 salary near the league minimum.

 

The 28-year-old Vazquez has posted 1.3 fWAR in 291 MLB games with a Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR in 90 games next year.

 

The 26-year-old Healy has posted 0.9 fWAR in 354 MLB games with a Steamer projections of 0.3 WAR in 122 games next year.

 

Those numbers favor Vazquez but the the contracts favor Healy.

 

I am confident that Seattle will not trade two years of reliever Alex Colome, the 2017 American League saves leader, for a catcher guaranteed money coming off a negative 0.8 fWAR season. And the Mariners would have little interest in Blake Swihart, a fringe utility player who has not been trusted with everyday catching duties.

 

I prefer that a team sell high and buy low but Seattle was on the wrong end of that philosophy in the Zunino/Smith swap.

 

The Mariners created a hole by trading Mike Zunino for Mallex Smith but would create another hole by trading Healy for Vazquez. I suspect Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto has sent out multiple feelers.

Edited November 8, 2018 by harmony

[jacksonianmarch]

Christian Vazquez presents an interesting valuation issue.

 

With his guaranteed money through 2021 a team could not get out from under the financial obligation by merely designating Vazquez for assignment if he does not rebound from his negative 0.8 fWAR season.

 

This year Seattle first baseman Ryon Healy matched Vazquez's negative 0.8 fWAR year but can be cut at anytime. Healy remains under team control for four more seasons with a 2019 salary near the league minimum.

 

The 28-year-old Vazquez has posted 1.3 fWAR in 291 MLB games with a Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR in 90 games next year.

 

The 26-year-old Healy has posted 0.9 fWAR in 354 MLB games with a Steamer projections of 0.3 WAR in 122 games next year.

 

Those numbers favor Vazquez but the the contracts favor Healy.

 

I am confident that Seattle will not trade two years of reliever Alex Colome, the 2017 American League saves leader, for a catcher guaranteed money coming off a negative 0.8 fWAR season. And the Mariners would have little interest in Blake Swihart, a fringe utility player who has not been trusted with everyday catching duties.

 

I prefer that a team sell high and buy low but Seattle was on the wrong end of that philosophy in the Zunino/Smith swap.

 

The Mariners created a hole by trading Mike Zunino for Mallex Smith but would create another hole by trading Healy for Vazquez. I suspect Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto has sent out multiple feelers.

 

Harmony, I think the Rays fleeced the Mariners. DiPoto loves the slash and run type guys. He has two of them on the roster in Segura and Gordon. Smith is another, albeit a far better runner than either at this stage and a far better OF defender. I question if his hit tool will continue. In Zunino, the Rays got a good defensive catcher capable of popping 20 bombs in Seattle. He is a season removed from an .800OPS year. With the way the Rays have been in terms of deals, I expect this one to work out for them. I think the Rays have done an absolutely exceptional job remaking their roster. The Pirates deal was a steal. The Mariners deal previous was a good one to pick up a couple intriguing arms and dump Span's salary by dealing off Colome, who was overrated due to his save stat

[harmony]

Harmony, I think the Rays fleeced the Mariners. DiPoto loves the slash and run type guys. He has two of them on the roster in Segura and Gordon. Smith is another, albeit a far better runner than either at this stage and a far better OF defender. I question if his hit tool will continue. In Zunino, the Rays got a good defensive catcher capable of popping 20 bombs in Seattle. He is a season removed from an .800OPS year. With the way the Rays have been in terms of deals, I expect this one to work out for them. I think the Rays have done an absolutely exceptional job remaking their roster. The Pirates deal was a steal. The Mariners deal previous was a good one to pick up a couple intriguing arms and dump Span's salary by dealing off Colome, who was overrated due to his save stat

I hold the Tampa Bay Rays in high regard.

 

I am warming up to the deal because of Seattle's need for a true center fielder, and the years of team control (two for Mike Zunino versus four for Mallex Smith). However, I am a fan of Zunino and suspect the Mariner pitching staff will miss him.

[Bellhorn04]

However, I am a fan of Zunino and suspect the Mariner pitching staff will miss him.

 

That's what doesn't show up in the fWAR.

[notin]

I hold the Tampa Bay Rays in high regard.

 

I am warming up to the deal because of Seattle's need for a true center fielder, and the years of team control (two for Mike Zunino versus four for Mallex Smith). However, I am a fan of Zunino and suspect the Mariner pitching staff will miss him.

 

So do the Mariners now bump Dee Gordon to left field? That experiment ended quick and I suspect this new one will as well.

 

The Mariners need to get him back to 2b. Maybe Cano can shift over to a 1b/DH role, which actually would free up Healy...

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the plan is for Dee to return to 2b and for Cano to flip to 1B or 3B. Healy can DH for the time being

[notin]

That's what doesn't show up in the fWAR.

 

At least not when talking about Vazquez...

[harmony]

So do the Mariners now bump Dee Gordon to left field? That experiment ended quick and I suspect this new one will as well.

 

The Mariners need to get him back to 2b. Maybe Cano can shift over to a 1b/DH role, which actually would free up Healy...

I expect Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto to be busy filling out (and rearranging) this current lineup:

 

C ????

1B Ryon Healy

2B Dee Gordon

SS Jean Segura

3B Kyle Seager

RF Mitch Haniger

CF Mallex Smith

LF Ben Gamel

DH Robinson Cano

 

The Seattle lineup disappointed this year when Kyle Seager's on-base percentage fell from .323 in 2017 to .273, Mike Zunino's from .331 to .259 and Dee Gordon's from .341 to .288. Ryon Healy's OBP fell from .337 in 2016 to .302 in 2017 to .277 in 2018. That's four-ninths of the 2018 batting order.

Edited November 8, 2018 by harmony