And the off season begins (2018-19)

[notin]

Of course it would impact the team. What I am reading here is that you might be thinking that our owner and management cannot possibly overcome the loss of any of these guys?

You don't agree with the information coming from the front office I guess. My choice is to wait and see. I'm going to remain positive. You might think that my thinking is unrealistic. I am ok with that but I'll just keep on keeping on. Every time I read a doomsday forecast of the future of this franchise, I will continue to respond.

 

There is a big difference between saying we have no farm system and the franchise is doomed.

 

That doesn’t mean the unthinkable can’t happen. But how DD replaces the departing free agents will be very important. I wonder if it was a good strategy or a bad one to avoid this particular free agent market...

[Bellhorn04]

I think above all, you do what it takes to keep Mookie Betts. And Henry and Dombrowski have proven to be 'do what it takes' guys.

 

Then you figure out the rest.

[Dojji]

The only reason I disagree with you, Bellhorn, is that I actually prioritize Bogaerts over Betts. What Bogaerts does is actually harder to find. And I can't help but feel that he has another step forward he's about to take.

[notin]

I think above all, you do what it takes to keep Mookie Betts. And Henry and Dombrowski have proven to be 'do what it takes' guys.

 

Then you figure out the rest.

 

 

Or you go crazy!!

 

Trade Mookie Betts and Rick Porcello for Mike Trout.

 

Trout is signed for 3 more years for about $100mill, but his AAV on this contract is only $24mill.

 

Anaheim gets the closest thing to Trout plus a reliable starting pitcher to join the most oft-injured rotation in MLB history.

 

The Sox get 3 years of Trout fir a lower AAV than Betts will get.

 

And somehow, both teams save money...

[Bellhorn04]

Or you go crazy!!

 

Trade Mookie Betts and Rick Porcello for Mike Trout.

 

Trout is signed for 3 more years for about $100mill, but his AAV on this contract is only $24mill.

 

Anaheim gets the closest thing to Trout plus a reliable starting pitcher to join the most oft-injured rotation in MLB history.

 

The Sox get 3 years of Trout fir a lower AAV than Betts will get.

 

And somehow, both teams save money...

 

So for 2019 we save about 15 million in AAV, but we're minus Rick Porcello.

 

Not a big help for 2019.

 

The only year it really helps is 2021.

[notin]

So for 2019 we save about 15 million in AAV, but we're minus Rick Porcello.

 

Not a big help for 2019.

 

The only year it really helps is 2021.

 

Porcello can’t be replaced for $15mill? Which leads to another question - do the Sox want to?

 

Porcello was specifically mentioned by Dombrowski as a player he would listen to deals for. No mention of “replacement.” But maybe the idea is to replace Porcello with Johnson in the rotation and with a closer on the payroll.

 

If the Sox don’t make a move like this, who do you propose fills out the bullpen for free?

 

Or, what’s the better combo - Porcello starting, Barnes closing in status quo bullpen? Or Johnson starting, Kimbrel closing?

[Bellhorn04]

Porcello can’t be replaced for $15mill? Which leads to another question - do the Sox want to?

 

Porcello was specifically mentioned by Dombrowski as a player he would listen to deals for. No mention of “replacement.” But maybe the idea is to replace Porcello with Johnson in the rotation and with a closer on the payroll.

 

If the Sox don’t make a move like this, who do you propose fills out the bullpen for free?

 

Or, what’s the better combo - Porcello starting, Barnes closing in status quo bullpen? Or Johnson starting, Kimbrel closing?

 

Personally I still think they acquire two relievers. Maybe they will try to get away with adding one.

 

We've heard all kinds of rumors that are all over the place. But no rumors of anything being 'imminent'.

 

When push comes to shove I think John Henry wants to make a run at repeating and will authorize the expenditures.

 

But it makes sense they will try to bolster the bullpen a little on the cheap by taking a chance on Herrera or something like that.

[Nick]

Fans want to build a team around Mookie after we do the reset. It maybe another Lester nightmare if we don't offer 'fair' price to Betts.

 

With that in mind, suppose we go for it for 2019 and 2020 and reset in 2021 as advocated by Moon.

 

Price----2019-2020-2021-2022 $31.00M

Eovaldi-2019-2020-2021-2022 $17.00M

E Rod---2019-2020-2021 $15.00M? (3rd Yr arb)

Porcello-2019

Sale---- 2019

Vazquez 2019-2020-2021 $ 4.50M

Platoon 2019

Pedroia 2019-2020-2021 $13.75M

Xander 2019-2020-2021 $20.00M assume we sign him to long term

Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 $ 7.50M 1st yr arb

Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022 $12.50M 2nd yr arb

JBJ 2019-2020

Betts 2019-2020

Marinez 2019

 

We'll have $121M committed to 3 starting pitchers, catcher, 2B. SS. 3B, LF, total of 8 players 2021. Luxury tax limit for 2021 is $210M. Subtract $16M for player benefits. Thus we have $73M to sign Betts and fill out DH, 1B, CF, entire bullpen and starters 4 and 5 on pitching staff and the balance of 40-man roster. If we give Mookie $35M, that leaves us with only $38M. That is just not doable in my mind. And that's with saying bye to Porcello, Sale and Martinez year before.

 

I don't think we reset. We merely stay under the $40M + luxury tax limit forever.

 

Moon, help!!!!

Edited December 15, 2018 by Nick

[cp176]

There is a big difference between saying we have no farm system and the franchise is doomed.

 

That doesn’t mean the unthinkable can’t happen. But how DD replaces the departing free agents will be very important. I wonder if it was a good strategy or a bad one to avoid this particular free agent market...

 

Overall I agree with what you are saying. I just would not use the phrase - we have no farm system. I like some of those kids and think that they stand as good if not a better chance than they guys we traded at someday becoming influential ml players. It is a confusing time for sure. Even I can see all of the obstacles that need to be dealt with I just think that we have a chance to do that.

I also am not sure that DD thinks that Rick Porcello, regardless of how dependable he has been for us, is the kind of starting pitcher you pay big for.

As much as I love Mookie too - I'm starting to question whether a long term commitment of hundreds of millions of dollars is going to be seen as sensible.

Hey - If JH is able to get 25 mil for his 19 bathroom Florida mansion maybe he will sign Porcello to a one year contract. lol

[Bellhorn04]

As much as I love Mookie too - I'm starting to question whether a long term commitment of hundreds of millions of dollars is going to be seen as sensible.

 

A long term commitment to Mookie is sensible IMO. Not just because of his ability, but because of his charisma. He's a guy that people will pay to see. That's good for the team's revenues.

 

And on the flip side, a lot of people will be pissed if he goes.

 

Some of that $35 mill a year is being spent on PR, in other words.

[cp176]

A long term commitment to Mookie is sensible IMO. Not just because of his ability, but because of his charisma. He's a guy that people will pay to see. That's good for the team's revenues.

 

And on the flip side, a lot of people will be pissed if he goes.

 

Some of that $35 mill a year is being spent on PR, in other words.

 

I agree with you but I am becoming somewhat influenced by people here trying to make predictions about how JH is going to spend his money. I just think that these contracts have become somewhat insane. I am a good old slap happy card carrying capitalist too.

[fxkatt]

A long term commitment to Mookie is sensible IMO. Not just because of his ability, but because of his charisma. He's a guy that people will pay to see. That's good for the team's revenues.

 

And on the flip side, a lot of people will be pissed if he goes.

 

Some of that $35 mill a year is being spent on PR, in other words.

 

Mike Trout might serve that "pay to see" function just as well or better. I know he's no show-man but he has a huge following. But Bett's cost must certainly have a lot to do with Sale. Can you have Betts at 33 million per year and Sale at 25? And of course Price at 30. That's close to 40% of your desired cap on 3 players.

[Nick]

Mike Trout might serve that "pay to see" function just as well or better. I know he's no show-man but he has a huge following. But Bett's cost must certainly have a lot to do with Sale. Can you have Betts at 33 million per year and Sale at 25? And of course Price at 30. That's close to 40% of your desired cap on 3 players.

 

You are not getting Sale foe $25M.

[fxkatt]

You are not getting Sale foe $25M.

 

If so, that strengthens my argument. So, you have 35 for Betts, 30 for Price, 30 for Sale.

 

That's about 42% of your salary cap goal on three players--with Betts being the only one who's worth his pay.

[Bellhorn04]

If so, that strengthens my argument. So, you have 35 for Betts, 30 for Price, 30 for Sale.

 

That's about 42% of your salary cap goal on three players--with Betts being the only one who's worth his pay.

 

Yes, this certainly illustrates that you can't keep them all.

 

We better just enjoy our last year of Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

Fans want to build a team around Mookie after we do the reset. It maybe another Lester nightmare if we don't offer 'fair' price to Betts.

 

With that in mind, suppose we go for it for 2019 and 2020 and reset in 2021 as advocated by Moon.

 

Price----2019-2020-2021-2022 $31.00M

Eovaldi-2019-2020-2021-2022 $17.00M

E Rod---2019-2020-2021 $15.00M? (3rd Yr arb)

Porcello-2019

Sale---- 2019

Vazquez 2019-2020-2021 $ 4.50M

Platoon 2019

Pedroia 2019-2020-2021 $13.75M

Xander 2019-2020-2021 $20.00M assume we sign him to long term

Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 $ 7.50M 1st yr arb

Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022 $12.50M 2nd yr arb

JBJ 2019-2020

Betts 2019-2020

Marinez 2019

 

We'll have $121M committed to 3 starting pitchers, catcher, 2B. SS. 3B, total of 7 players 2021. Luxury tax limit for 2021 is $210M. Subtract $16M for player benefits. Thus we have $73M to sign Betts and fill out DH, 1B, CF, entire bullpen and starters 4 and 5 on pitching staff and the balance of 40-man roster. If we give Mookie $35M, that leaves us with only $38M. That is just not doable in my mind. And that's with saying bye to Porcello, Sale and Martinez year before.

 

I don't think we reset. We merely stay under the $40M + luxury tax limit forever.

 

Moon, help!!!!

 

That is a possibility, or we reset in 2023 or beyond.

 

I'm a cliffdweller, so I do think we reset after 2020 with or without Betts. I prefer with Betts and try to stay somewhat competitive for a couple of years.

 

We'll have to fill 1B and DH from within (Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Casas?) and maybe SS (Chatham or a cheap, all-glove SS). Maybe a starter will emerge from the minors, or we go with Price, ____, ERod, Wright, Johnson/Velazquez/Shawaryn/Groome/Houck....

 

[cp176]

That is a possibility, or we reset in 2023 or beyond.

 

I'm a cliffdweller, so I do think we reset after 2020 with or without Betts. I prefer with Betts and try to stay somewhat competitive for a couple of years.

 

We'll have to fill 1B and DH from within (Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Casas?) and maybe SS (Chatham or a cheap, all-glove SS). Maybe a starter will emerge from the minors, or we go with Price, ____, ERod, Wright, Johnson/Velazquez/Shawaryn/Groome/Houck....

 

 

I think that in 2020, you could still sneak Eovaldi into that blank space.

[moonslav59]

I think that in 2020, you could still sneak Eovaldi into that blank space.

 

Yes, I forgot.

 

We could still be a fair team without Sale, Porcello, JD and Bogey with $38M to spend plus some prospects filling in, but not highly competitive.

[moonslav59]

2021

Price

Eovaldi

ERod

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez'

Shawaryn/Groome/Houck

Barnes

Brasier

Hembree

Poyner

Feltman

Lakins

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Devers 3B/1B/DH

4. Chavis DH/1B

5. Dalbec 3B/1B

6. _______ CF

7. Chatham SS

8. Lin/Hernandez 2B

9. Vaz C

Edited December 15, 2018 by moonslav59

[Nick]

Yes, I forgot.

 

We could still be a fair team without Sale, Porcello, JD and Bogey with $38M to spend plus some prospects filling in, but not highly competitive.

 

I actually have Xander signed for $20M. If we pass on him, we'll have $58M left.

[Emp9]

The only reason I disagree with you, Bellhorn, is that I actually prioritize Bogaerts over Betts. What Bogaerts does is actually harder to find. And I can't help but feel that he has another step forward he's about to take.

 

I disagree, but I'll tell you why though. I happen to value spectacular up the middle defense ( maybe more so than most) and XB is less than spectacular. Offense-wise, you're right, he would be hard to replace. Also, Betts is 3XGG winner in RF and our RF is tougher than most. Betts seems like a consistent 30/30 and perennial MVP candidate. I love Bogey, don't get me wrong, but as far as absolutely must keep and retire a Red Sox, Betts is my guy.

[oldtimer]

2022

Price

Eovaldi

ERod

Wright

Johnson

Velazquez'

Shawaryn/Groome/Houck

Barnes

Brasier

Hembree

Poyner

Feltman

Lakins

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Devers 3B/1B/DH

4. Chavis DH/1B

5. Dalbec 3B/1B

6. _______ CF

7. Chatham SS

8. Lin/Hernandez 2B

9. Vaz C

 

I would say it is extremely difficult to project out to 2022. I can see 2019 as being nearly solidified but beyond that, pitching will depend on many things, like is Sale really sound. We probably will have BP help from the minors. Beyond that, naming names is an exercise in futility.

 

As far as field players, I can see a lineup including:

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Devers 3rd

4. Casas 1st

5. Dalbec DH

6. Chavis 2nd

7. Chatham SS

8. Vaz C

9. CF?? (Probable FA acquisition)

 

It's far enough in the future to be pure speculation as we have three seasons to see if any of the pieces actually fit.

 

Utility Lin

[moonslav59]

I would say it is extremely difficult to project out to 2022. I can see 2019 as being nearly solidified but beyond that, pitching will depend on many things, like is Sale really sound. We probably will have BP help from the minors. Beyond that, naming names is an exercise in futility.

 

As far as field players, I can see a lineup including:

 

1. Beni LF

2. Betts RF

3. Devers 3rd

4. Casas 1st

5. Dalbec DH

6. Chavis 2nd

7. Chatham SS

8. Vaz C

9. CF?? (Probable FA acquisition)

 

It's far enough in the future to be pure speculation as we have three seasons to see if any of the pieces actually fit.

 

Utility Lin

 

Isn't Dalbec is a better defender than Devers and Chavis?

[moonslav59]

I disagree, but I'll tell you why though. I happen to value spectacular up the middle defense ( maybe more so than most) and XB is less than spectacular. Offense-wise, you're right, he would be hard to replace. Also, Betts is 3XGG winner in RF and our RF is tougher than most. Betts seems like a consistent 30/30 and perennial MVP candidate. I love Bogey, don't get me wrong, but as far as absolutely must keep and retire a Red Sox, Betts is my guy.

 

I totally agree.

 

Losing Bogey will hurt badly, but we could get better SS defense to partially offset the loss on offense.

 

We might also keep JBJ and let Bogey walk.

[notin]

I disagree, but I'll tell you why though. I happen to value spectacular up the middle defense ( maybe more so than most) and XB is less than spectacular. Offense-wise, you're right, he would be hard to replace. Also, Betts is 3XGG winner in RF and our RF is tougher than most. Betts seems like a consistent 30/30 and perennial MVP candidate. I love Bogey, don't get me wrong, but as far as absolutely must keep and retire a Red Sox, Betts is my guy.

 

 

Also, the Sox might have a decent MLB shortstop in AA this year with CJ Chatham. But who is the best outfielder in the Sox system? Above A-ball, it’s a battle between Rusney Castillo and Danny Mars, I think. And Rusney is pushing 30...

[Bellhorn04]

I would say that Sale and Bogey are the 2 most likely not to be retainable.

[Kimmi]

If we lose all of them and don't replace them, we're up the creek. But that ain't happening of course.

 

How are we going to replace them? It takes either money or prospects. If we're resetting, we won't have the money. And we don't have the prospects.

[Kimmi]

I think above all, you do what it takes to keep Mookie Betts. And Henry and Dombrowski have proven to be 'do what it takes' guys.

 

Then you figure out the rest.

 

Not if it's going to tie up $300+ million. Tying that kind of money up in one player will make it all the more difficult to replace the others. It actually might make more sense to trade Betts next offseason.

[Northern Star]

Not if it's going to tie up $300+ million. Tying that kind of money up in one player will make it all the more difficult to replace the others. It actually might make more sense to trade Betts next offseason.

 

Sense in baseball terms, or sense in big market baseball team terms?

[Nick]

Not if it's going to tie up $300+ million. Tying that kind of money up in one player will make it all the more difficult to replace the others. It actually might make more sense to trade Betts next offseason.

 

 

If you take emotions out of it, Betts has the most value in a trade. We can probably get two cost controlled players at two positions, one being a starting pitcher.

 

If we win it all in 2019, I can reset and see us rebuild. Won't we get draft compensation for losing Xander, Sale, Porcello and Martinez? Trade away JBJ and Betts. And hope Pedey retires. Hell you might as well trade E Rod who will still have two years left and definitely have some value.

 

Build a team around Devers and Beni. Under this scenario, we have less than $70M tied up. Year later you can re-sign Betts when he becomes a FA.

 

I think fans will understand, as long as we win it all again in 2019.