And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Kimmi]

It looks pretty close to half being good and half being bad.

 

I don't think you can count the ones that have been good 'so far' as being good. The early part of the contract is not where the problems usually occur.

[Kimmi]

Oh! Wait, so you are telling me that he was handed an 8 year contract when he was 33 years old? Madness!!!!

 

This contract looks even worse than Pablo Sandoval's and I didn't think that was possible.

 

Hmmm, I wonder who signed that Miggy to that crazy 8 year extension?

[jacksonianmarch]

Hmmm, I wonder who signed that Miggy to that crazy 8 year extension?

 

No idea, lol

[Kimmi]

An opt out makes sense. It gives Betts long term insurance, if he gets hurt or, dare I say, gets worse, but it also lets him re-enter the market if salaries keep going up and up and he keeps doing very well or better.

 

The more you front load it, the better chance he opts out, which might be what some of you guys want anyways...(like with Price).

 

As someone mentioned, opt outs seem to be the way long term contracts are going. I would be surprised if any of Machado, Harper, Betts signed contracts without at least one opt out.

[moonslav59]

I don't think you can count the ones that have been good 'so far' as being good. The early part of the contract is not where the problems usually occur.

 

Okay, then look at just the ones we can judge:

 

Red is at the point where judgement is certain.

 

Biggest 7+ year contracts:

 

$325M/13 Stanton ('15-'27)

-Jury still out

 

$275/10 ARod ('08-'17)

-Bad deal

 

$252M/10 ARod ('01-'10)

-Good deal

 

$248/8 Miggy ('16-'23)

-Maybe the worst of the worst

 

$240M/10 Pujols ('12-'21)

-Horrible

 

$240M/10 Cano ('14-'23)

-Not too good, so far

 

$225M/10 Votto ('14-'23)'

-Good, so far

 

$217M/7 Price ('16-'22)

-Decent, so far

 

$215M/7 Kershaw ('14-'20)

-Good, so far

 

$214M/9 Fielder ('12-'20)

-Injury made this horrible

 

$210M/7 Scherzer ('15-'21)

-Very good, so far

 

$189M/10 Jeter (01-'10)

-Good

 

2 Good

 

3 Bad

 

Still, not as bad as many make it out to be.

 

[harmony]

Okay, then look at just the ones we can judge:

 

Red is at the point where judgement is certain.

 

Biggest 7+ year contracts:

 

$325M/13 Stanton ('15-'27)

-Jury still out

 

$275/10 ARod ('08-'17)

-Bad deal

 

$252M/10 ARod ('01-'10)

-Good deal

 

$248/8 Miggy ('16-'23)

-Maybe the worst of the worst

 

$240M/10 Pujols ('12-'21)

-Horrible

 

$240M/10 Cano ('14-'23)

-Not too good, so far

 

$225M/10 Votto ('14-'23)'

-Good, so far

 

$217M/7 Price ('16-'22)

-Decent, so far

 

$215M/7 Kershaw ('14-'20)

-Good, so far

 

$214M/9 Fielder ('12-'20)

-Injury made this horrible

 

$210M/7 Scherzer ('15-'21)

-Very good, so far

 

$189M/10 Jeter (01-'10)

-Good

 

2 Good

 

3 Bad

 

Still, not as bad as many make it out to be.

 

In his "bad" 2008-17 contract, Alex Rodriguez posted fWAR valued at $202.1 million, or 73.5 percent of the $275 million contract.

 

In the first three years of his Boston contract David Price has posted fWAR valued at only $69.9 million, or 77.7 percent of his $90 million salary to date. Price will need to post fWAR valued at about $90 million over the final four years of his contract to attain 73.5 percent of his $217 million contract.

 

Rodriguez helped the Yankees to a World Series title in the second year of that contract while Price helped the Red Sox to a World Series title in the third year of his contract.

 

I suspect the contracts are similarly unattractive.

Edited December 18, 2018 by harmony

[Nick]

Suppose we offer Betts the best FA offer after the 2020 season. Would he not even consider us if we had traded him after 2019?

 

Forgetting the draft picks, etc, our penalty this year will be about $12M. Next year it will be close to 1 1/2 times more (going from 20% to 30%), $18M, if our payroll is at the same level. Then it will be close to $30M each year thereafter. I would suspect we'd get some relief under the new CBA in 2022.

 

I'm beginning to think if we reset, it should come after the 2019 season. Why not get something for Betts? If we swing and miss on re-signing Betts, we can always go after Trout. If Betts knows that the Sox are retooling, would he carry a grudge against the team for trading him?

 

We can still re-sing Price in 2020 for post 2020 pennant run. When Betts returns, we'll have two years of Price and Eovaldi, along with Sale.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Suppose we offer Betts the best FA offer after the 2020 season. Would he not even consider us if we had traded him after 2019?

 

Forgetting the draft picks, etc, our penalty this year will be about $12M. Next year it will be close to 1 1/2 times more (going from 20% to 30%), $18M, if our payroll is at the same level. Then it will be close to $30M each year thereafter. I would suspect we'd get some relief under the new CBA in 2022.

 

I'm beginning to think if we reset, it should come after the 2019 season. Why not get something for Betts? If we swing and miss on re-signing Betts, we can always go after Trout. If Betts knows that the Sox are retooling, would he carry a grudge against the team for trading him?

 

We can still re-sing Price in 2020 for post 2020 pennant run. When Betts returns, we'll have two years of Price and Eovaldi, along with Sale.

 

I'd prefer that Betts goes nowhere.

[notin]

I'd prefer that Betts goes nowhere.

 

Agreed. Also do players usually hold grudges that can’t be bought out when they hit free agency?

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. Also do players usually hold grudges that can’t be bought out when they hit free agency?

 

I think that would vary from player to player. My sense was that Jon Lester did not appreciate being traded. But he seemed to give the Sox a legitimate chance to re-sign him. Theo 'overpaid' by 20 million to sign him.

[moonslav59]

I really hoped we had signed Miller after getting ERod for him.

 

In a sense we ended up getting Porcello for Lester, and his deal ends before Lester's.

 

2015-201i8

 

13.7 fWAR Lester ($155M/6 including 2 years to go)

11.6 fWAR Porcerllo ($85M/5 years including 1 to go)

 

 

[Nick]

I really hoped we had signed Miller after getting ERod for him.

 

In a sense we ended up getting Porcello for Lester, and his deal ends before Lester's.

 

2015-201i8

 

13.7 fWAR Lester ($155M/6 including 2 years to go)

11.6 fWAR Porcerllo ($85M/5 years including 1 to go)

 

 

 

Sox is paying $5.8M per fWAR. Cubbies are paying $7.5M per fWAR. I doubt Lester's numbers will improve much over the next two years. But of course we're worried about winning so Lester would have done better for Sox even though it would've cost us little more.

[notin]

Sox is paying $5.8M per fWAR. Cubbies are paying $7.5M per fWAR. I doubt Lester's numbers will improve much over the next two years. But of course we're worried about winning so Lester would have done better for Sox even though it would've cost us little more.

 

If the Sox kept Lester over Porcello, we could FINALLY get a left-handed pitcher into the rotation.

 

Just think - last year the Sox could have opened the season with Sale, Price, Lester, Pomeranz and Rodriguez in the rotation...

[Station 13]

If the Sox kept Lester over Porcello, we could FINALLY get a left-handed pitcher into the rotation.

 

Just think - last year the Sox could have opened the season with Sale, Price, Lester, Pomeranz and Rodriguez in the rotation...

 

You know they wouldn't have sign Price if they kept Lester.

[kenmeister]

You know they wouldn't have sign Price if they kept Lester.

 

That's probably true, but the real shame is not going after Max Scherzer. I know I'm a broken record on that.

[notin]

You know they wouldn't have sign Price if they kept Lester.

 

Are you sure?

 

Our current President/GM signed Miguel Cabrera to a $248mill extension and Justin Verlander to a $180mill extension while he still paying part of the Prince Fielder’s $214mill contract in the books. He doesn’t shy away from big contracts.

 

Verlander was extended before he even traded Fielder...

[notin]

And where'd you get the $5mill per WAR?

 

Rough estimate of the value of one fWAR when Cano signed. It might not be accurate but the point was the escalating values of fWAR can falsely justify longer term deals by increasing the worth of seasons long past...

[mvp 78]

Agreed. Also do players usually hold grudges that can’t be bought out when they hit free agency?

 

I'm not sure Betts even has a grudge to begin with. He's the one who wants to go year to year. I bet the Sox would love to ink him long term now. He's gonna get paid and he'll deserve it. If he goes elsewhere, it'll be the hardest organizational loss since Clemens left (and Mookie's could still be worse).

[notin]

I'm not sure Betts even has a grudge to begin with. He's the one who wants to go year to year. I bet the Sox would love to ink him long term now. He's gonna get paid and he'll deserve it. If he goes elsewhere, it'll be the hardest organizational loss since Clemens left (and Mookie's could still be worse).

 

I think most players understand trades are part of the job.

 

I suppose when they have kids in school, trades can be tougher on them, though...

[Bellhorn04]

Rough estimate of the value of one fWAR when Cano signed. It might not be accurate but the point was the escalating values of fWAR can falsely justify longer term deals by increasing the worth of seasons long past...

 

I don't think this is right. As harmony said, FanGraphs estimate of the value of one fWAR when Cano signed was more like $7 mill. They adjust it every year but they don't make any retroactive adjustments.

 

If there is an escalation in salaries, it does make long term deals look a little better, rightfully so.

[notin]

I don't think this is right. As harmony said, FanGraphs estimate of the value of one fWAR when Cano signed was more like $7 mill. They adjust it every year but they don't make any retroactive adjustments.

 

If there is an escalation in salaries, it does make long term deals look a little better, rightfully so.

 

I did some research. When Cano signed his deal, 1 fWAR was worth $7.7mill. In 2017, one fWAR was worth $10.5mill. So when calculating what Cano has been worth, the $7.7mill number would be correct...

[Bellhorn04]

I did some research. When Cano signed his deal, 1 fWAR was worth $7.7mill. In 2017, one fWAR was worth $10.5mill. So when calculating what Cano has been worth, the $7.7mill number would be correct...

 

I'm afraid you've gone into Mister Magoo land. In 2017 the value of 1 WAR was not 10.5 mill, it was about 7.9 mill.

 

Justin Verlander 2017 fWAR 4.1 $ value 32.5

[kenmeister]

I'm not sure Betts even has a grudge to begin with. He's the one who wants to go year to year. I bet the Sox would love to ink him long term now. He's gonna get paid and he'll deserve it. If he goes elsewhere, it'll be the hardest organizational loss since Clemens left (and Mookie's could still be worse).

 

That's an interesting topic. Here are my saddest organization losses since I started watching the Sox:

Jon Lester

Adrian Beltre

Nomar (but I understood it)

Mo Vaughn

Roger Clemens

Wade Boggs

[notin]

I'm afraid you've gone into Mister Magoo land. In 2017 the value of 1 WAR was not 10.5 mill, it was about 7.9 mill.

 

Justin Verlander 2017 fWAR 4.1 $ value 32.5

 

Maybe I should have read the article, but I quickly pulled the value from the table here.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

[moonslav59]

That's an interesting topic. Here are my saddest organization losses since I started watching the Sox:

Jon Lester

Adrian Beltre

Nomar (but I understood it)

Mo Vaughn

Roger Clemens

Wade Boggs

 

I was ecstatic when we traded Nomar.

 

Losing Clemens sucked, but he quickly showed what a jerk he was, so that softened the blow.

 

Mo began to suck almost immediately after he left, so that lessened that feeling of loss.

 

Once Boggs signed with the Yanks, I could have cared less about him.

 

Losing Beltre sucked, but we did get comp picks JBJ and Swihart as a result.

 

Lester hurt, but here are my top six Sox losses:

 

1. Fred Lynn

2. Carlton Fisk

3. Rick Burleson

4. Jon Lester

5. Reggie Smith

6. Bill Lee

 

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe I should have read the article, but I quickly pulled the value from the table here.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-recent-history-of-free-agent-pricing/

 

I saw that article too. But the values don't match up with the values they actually use in their player tables.

[harmony]

I did some research. When Cano signed his deal, 1 fWAR was worth $7.7mill. In 2017, one fWAR was worth $10.5mill. So when calculating what Cano has been worth, the $7.7mill number would be correct...

In 2017 Matt Moore's 1.0 fWAR was valued at $7.7 million:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1890&position=P#value

[mvp 78]

That's an interesting topic. Here are my saddest organization losses since I started watching the Sox:

Jon Lester

Adrian Beltre

Nomar (but I understood it)

Mo Vaughn

Roger Clemens

Wade Boggs

 

I never really gravitated towards Boggs as a younger fan so his loss didn't bother me.

 

I loved Mo Vaughn, but he left at a time I was watching a lot less baseball.

 

I remember when Nomar left that it was like a whole new world, like going through a breakup that you initiated. There was a feeling of loss but that you'd be better for it.

 

With Lester, you could see the writing on the wall with the ownership not wanting to re-sign him. It wasn't a surprise to me.

[notin]

I saw that article too. But the values don't match up with the values they actually use in their player tables.

 

Theres probably a good reason that one could find if anyone ever actually read the article...

[mvp 78]

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/12/17/tim-neverett-la-dodgers-broadcast-team

 

Missed the news that Neverett was leaving NESN.

 

“I chose to let my contract expire rather than go back and work for them,’’ said Neverett, who was told by station executives in June to start looking for another job, but had hoped that the situation would get better.

 

“The Red Sox were very supportive of me during a very difficult year,’’ he said. “They wanted me to return. It had nothing to with the Red Sox.”

 

WEEI sucks.