And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Nick]

I was ecstatic when we traded Nomar.

 

Losing Clemens sucked, but he quickly showed what a jerk he was, so that softened the blow.

 

Mo began to suck almost immediately after he left, so that lessened that feeling of loss.

 

Once Boggs signed with the Yanks, I could have cared less about him.

 

Losing Beltre sucked, but we did get comp picks JBJ and Swihart as a result.

 

Lester hurt, but here are my top six Sox losses:

 

1. Fred Lynn

2. Carlton Fisk

3. Rick Burleson

4. Jon Lester

5. Reggie Smith

6. Bill Lee

 

 

Best loss ever? Jacoby Ellsbury.....Yankees are stuck with him for another 2 years.

[Nick]

Are you sure?

 

Our current President/GM signed Miguel Cabrera to a $248mill extension and Justin Verlander to a $180mill extension while he still paying part of the Prince Fielder’s $214mill contract in the books. He doesn’t shy away from big contracts.

 

Verlander was extended before he even traded Fielder...

 

DD's Red American Express card is maxed out. He'll have to pay down the debt before he can buy more players.

[Nick]

Is it really given that JD Martinez will opt out after 2019? His contract still calls for $25M payout in 2020. Why not wait until after 2020?

 

I like for Moon to pitch in here but I believe JD's decision after 2019 maybe the biggest factor as to when the Sox re-sets.

 

If he sticks around for 2020, we can then go for three peat, then re-set. Our penalty can raise as high as $30M for 2020 but it would be worth it.

[Nick]

2019 Starting Freakin' Rotation!

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, E Rod

 

Could this be the best rotation ever in Fenway?

Edited December 18, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Is it really given that JD Martinez will opt out after 2019? His contract still calls for $25M payout in 2020. Why not wait until after 2020?

 

I like for Moon to pitch in here but I believe JD's decision after 2019 maybe the biggest factor as to when the Sox re-sets.

 

If he sticks around for 2020, we can then go for three peat, then re-set. Our penalty can raise as high as $30M for 2020 but it would be worth it.

 

Good point. Our reset clock may very well depend on JD's choice, but I also feel he will not get much more than $25M/yr when he opts out, so we could always re-sign him at $26M and keep the same budget another year.

[Bellhorn04]

Is it really given that JD Martinez will opt out after 2019? His contract still calls for $25M payout in 2020. Why not wait until after 2020?

 

I like for Moon to pitch in here but I believe JD's decision after 2019 maybe the biggest factor as to when the Sox re-sets.

 

If he sticks around for 2020, we can then go for three peat, then re-set. Our penalty can raise as high as $30M for 2020 but it would be worth it.

 

Interesting. Cot's shows JD's contract like this: 23.75/23.75/23.75/19.375/19.375

 

I had thought it was 25/25/20/20/20

[mvp 78]

2019 Starting Freakin' Rotation!

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, E Rod

 

Could this be the best rotation ever in Fenway?

 

It's up there.

 

1986: Clemens, Hurst, Boyd, Seaver, Nipper

1978: Torrez, Eck, Tiante, Lee, Wright

 

Those were pretty good too.

[Nick]

Interesting. Cot's shows JD's contract like this: 23.75/23.75/23.75/19.375/19.375

 

I had thought it was 25/25/20/20/20

 

My bad, my number is off. But the point I wanted to make was he's going to make the same amount of money in 2020 as he will in 2019. I would definitely opt out after 2020 but no so sure about after next year.

[moonslav59]

2019 Starting Freakin' Rotation!

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, E Rod

 

Could this be the best rotation ever in Fenway?

 

It certainly looks great, but there are some big question marks.

 

Sale's injury.

 

ERod never pitching a full season.

 

Eovaldi's injury history and never really being great for a full season.

 

Porcello has had some recent off years.

 

Price was called a "choke" and a "waste of a signing" just 2-3 months ago.

 

Here are some past rotations that challenge for #1:

 

Going into 2018, we basically had the same rotation, except for Pom (coming off 17-6 3.32).

 

2011: Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Wakefield, Buch/Dice-K (They didn't do great that year, but on paper, it looked solid.)

 

2009: Beckett, Lester, Wake, Buch, Smoltz/Penny/Dice-K

 

2007: Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Wake, Lester/Tavarez

 

2005: Schilling, Wells, Clement, Wake, Arroyo, W Miller

 

2004: Pedro, Schilling, Lowe, Wake, Arroyo

 

1986: Clemens, Hurst, Seaver, Boyd, Nipper/Sellers

 

1978: Tiant, Eckersley, M Torrez, B Lee, Wtight/Ripley

 

1977: Tiant, Jenkins, Wise, Cleveland, Lee/Aase

 

1975: Tiant, Wise, Lee, Moret, Cleveland

 

 

 

[kenmeister]

I was ecstatic when we traded Nomar.

 

Losing Clemens sucked, but he quickly showed what a jerk he was, so that softened the blow.

 

Mo began to suck almost immediately after he left, so that lessened that feeling of loss.

 

Once Boggs signed with the Yanks, I could have cared less about him.

 

Losing Beltre sucked, but we did get comp picks JBJ and Swihart as a result.

 

Lester hurt, but here are my top six Sox losses:

 

1. Fred Lynn

2. Carlton Fisk

3. Rick Burleson

4. Jon Lester

5. Reggie Smith

6. Bill Lee

 

 

Of your six, 5 were before my time I've heard the names, but I got into the Sox in the late 80s.

 

I was so mad when they didn't resign Beltre and traded away Rizzo. I remember thinking, "You're going after the wrong Adrian. The one you want is already here."

[moonslav59]

My bad, my number is off. But the point I wanted to make was he's going to make the same amount of money in 2020 as he will in 2019. I would definitely opt out after 2020 but no so sure about after next year.

 

There's also a buyout after 2019 only:

 

18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M

 

may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Of your six, 5 were before my time I've heard the names, but I got into the Sox in the late 80s.

 

I was so mad when they didn't resign Beltre and traded away Rizzo. I remember thinking, "You're going after the wrong Adrian. The one you want is already here."

 

Youk clouded their vision.

 

Yes, Rizzo at 1B and Beltre at 3B for many years would have been sweet.

 

We might not have been able to dump Crawford, though.

[harmony]

The Red Sox reportedly sign 31-year-old righthander Zach Putnam to a minor league contract:

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Putnam is an interesting guy. Throws pus, but generates a lot of swings and misses, generates less hard contact than the norm and gets a fair amount of ground balls. He hasn't really been healthy since 2015 and is due to miss at least half the season recovering from TJS. My guess is this is a deal for 2020.

[jopete19]

Nearing deal with Erasmo Ramirez. Not sure what I think of this pickup, doesn't have great numbers...

[moonslav59]

Nearing deal with Erasmo Ramirez. Not sure what I think of this pickup, doesn't have great numbers...

 

It's a minor league deal- no risk.

[Larry Cook]

Yo can never have enough depth.

 

Plus this signing does not prohibit us from bringing back kimbrel!

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The saddest organizational loss: Boggs. I came to the conclusion that the Red Sox were headed in the wrong direction, and that the Yankees were headed in the right direction. From that point forward, I kept baseball and the Red Sox at a distance--I couldn't endure the pain anymore. I didn't return until the day I read that the Red Sox hired Bill James. At that point, I stuck with them even through the Boone HR (the most painful post-John Henry ownership moment).

 

I was too young for the Fisk departure, but that would have bothered me.

 

Yeah, Lester is a good choice. Lester should have been a lifelong Red Sox.

 

I never liked Nomar. I loved it when Epstein traded him. Nomar was an idiot for turning down the Red Sox's contract--I think it was around 60 million dollars?

Edited December 19, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

2019 Starting Freakin' Rotation!

Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi, E Rod

 

Could this be the best rotation ever in Fenway?

 

It's a great rotation especially when we compare it to the crappy Yankees rotation. CC Sabathia and JJ Happ. Yeah, the Yankees are really going to win a championship with those two numb nuts in the rotation. And then Cashman trades for Paxton, a guy who always gets hurt. Tanaka's stuff declines every year. They needed Corbin, but Cashman strikes out on him probably because the team with the most HR in history is going to give Machado 300 million. Brilliant.

 

Meanwhile, Dombrowski does everything right. Says goodbye to the expensive closer and resigns Eovaldi who turned into a #2 starter when he developed that cutter. Porcello will probably have a big year this season. E-Rod could break out--what a special performance in the World Series. Funny, the guy I'm most concerned about is Chris Sale due to his health. But I was worried about Price's health going into the 2018 season and look what he did.

[Bellhorn04]

It's a great rotation especially when we compare it to the crappy Yankees rotation. CC Sabathia and JJ Happ. Yeah, the Yankees are really going to win a championship with those two numb nuts in the rotation. And then Cashman trades for Paxton, a guy who always gets hurt. Tanaka's stuff declines every year. They needed Corbin, but Cashman strikes out on him probably because the team with the most HR in history is going to give Machado 300 million. Brilliant.

 

Meanwhile, Dombrowski does everything right. Says goodbye to the expensive closer and resigns Eovaldi who turned into a #2 starter when he developed that cutter. Porcello will probably have a big year this season. E-Rod could break out--what a special performance in the World Series. Funny, the guy I'm most concerned about is Chris Sale due to his health. But I was worried about Price's health going into the 2018 season and look what he did.

 

I respect the anti-Yankee bias, but Eovaldi is at least as much of a health risk as Paxton.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like the Eovaldi signing. But the Paxton trade was a good move by Cashman.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

But the Paxton trade was a good move by Cashman.

 

to be determined.

[notin]

The

I respect the anti-Yankee bias, but Eovaldi is at least as much of a health risk as Paxton.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like the Eovaldi signing. But the Paxton trade was a good move by Cashman.

 

The risks might be equal in terms of each player getting hurt, but Eovaldi is the greater risk in terms of salary on the shelf....

[Bellhorn04]

to be determined.

 

Yes, in both cases.

[jacksonianmarch]

FsB loves to be a troll, lol.

 

Severino is a much better bet than Sale right now. Sevy was likely tipping his pitches. Sale likely has a shoulder injury. whomever gets over their issue first will have the advantage. Push

 

Price is more of a sure thing than Paxton, although Paxton has more upside due to the difference in stuff. Push

 

Tanaka and Porcello are a push.

 

Happ is far more durable than Eovaldi and Happ outpitched him last year. Advantage Happ

 

CC has started 4 more games than ERod the last 2 seasons even though he’s on an arthritic knee. ERod has a much higher ceiling. Advantage ERod.

 

The Yanks and Sox rotations are very evenly matched. If Sale is healthy and throws 200IP, then the Sox have an advantage. Then you look at Paxton, and if he can throw 30 times a season, then he’s likely to far exceed what Price gives you. If playoff Eovaldi is what you see from him, then you’ve got an ace, although he’s never proved that and he’s the biggest injury risk on here. Can Tanaka show his long stretches of dominance can stretch for a full season? Can porcello regain his CY season location. Can ERod stay healthy? Is JA Happ as good as he showed in NY? Can CC fight off Father Time for one more year?

 

Yankees 2018 WAR 16.2

Sox 2018 WAR 19.1

 

That advantage is almost entirely made up of Chris Sale’s ridiculous 150ish inning season. If he’s entirely healthy, then you’ve got an advantage. If he’s not, then you don’t.

[moonslav59]

The saddest organizational loss: Boggs. I came to the conclusion that the Red Sox were headed in the wrong direction, and that the Yankees were headed in the right direction. From that point forward, I kept baseball and the Red Sox at a distance--I couldn't endure the pain anymore. I didn't return until the day I read that the Red Sox hired Bill James. At that point, I stuck with them even through the Boone HR (the most painful post-John Henry ownership moment).

 

I was too young for the Fisk departure, but that would have bothered me.

 

Yeah, Lester is a good choice. Lester should have been a lifelong Red Sox.

 

I never liked Nomar. I loved it when Epstein traded him. Nomar was an idiot for turning down the Red Sox's contract--I think it was around 60 million dollars?

 

Boggs was a hitting machine. It was hard not to like what he gave the Sox, but as great as he was, I never really was a huge fan of his.

 

He also hit .259 the season before leaving. His OBP was still .353, but that was over 70 points below his career .415 OBP.

 

He played 7 more years, 5 w NYY & 2 w TBR, and he only had an OPS over .778 twice, and both of those years he had under 545 PAs.

 

It sucked seeing him play for the Yanks, but in hindsight, it was no great loss.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Boggs was one of the most patient hitters in baseball and that was so valuable in the 1990s, before the days of multiple relievers throwing 95-100 MPH. At that time, it made sense to get the SP to throw as many pitches as possible to get into the underbelly of the bullpen. The Yankees worked this strategy to perfection and it paid off for them. Due to his patience at the plate, Boggs was an incredibly valuable offensive player and if the Red Sox couldn't recognize that, I sort of figured they would accomplish nothing. I obviously changed my mind when Bill James was hired a decade or so later. Edited December 19, 2018 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Boggs was one of the most patient hitters in baseball and that was so valuable in the 1990s, before the days of multiple relievers throwing 95-100 MPH. At that time, it made sense to get the SP to throw as many pitches as possible to get into the underbelly of the bullpen. The Yankees worked this strategy to perfection and it paid off for them. Due to his patience at the plate, Boggs was an incredibly valuable offensive player and if the Red Sox couldn't recognize that, I sort of figured they would do accomplish nothing. I obviously changed my mind when Bill James was hired a decade or so later.

 

I think the Sox also understood the theory of diminishing returns as players age.

 

If there is one area the Sox have excelled in, it seems to be knowing when to let their best players walk. They've swung and missed on a few, for sure, like Lester, DLowe and Beltre, but by and large, we've done an excellent job knowing when enough is enough and not overpaying our aging stars for past value. Even the Damon departure made sense, as he could only DH or play LF for us in his latter years, and we had those slots filled up.

 

I hated seeing Pedro go, but we knew his arm was held together by a thread.

 

We paid Schilling $8M to not play his last year.

 

The Manny trade worked.

 

Dumping Beckett and CC brought us the 2013 ring. (Even trading AGon worked as Napoli did better.)

 

A walking Ellsbury was a godsend.

 

Trading Nomar in the nick of time. He sucked afterwards and cabrera brought us a ring in 2004, and his comp picks were Ellsbury & Lowrie!

 

Bill Mueller walked and played just one more year.

 

Jason Bay quickly imploded after we let him walk.

 

Papelbon had some good years after leaving but turned into trouble.

 

 

[notin]

Boggs was one of the most patient hitters in baseball and that was so valuable in the 1990s, before the days of multiple relievers throwing 95-100 MPH. At that time, it made sense to get the SP to throw as many pitches as possible to get into the underbelly of the bullpen. The Yankees worked this strategy to perfection and it paid off for them. Due to his patience at the plate, Boggs was an incredibly valuable offensive player and if the Red Sox couldn't recognize that, I sort of figured they would accomplish nothing. I obviously changed my mind when Bill James was hired a decade or so later.

 

Reportedly he also instructed the Yankee hitters about the value of fouling off close pitches to extend the at bat and increase the chances of drawing a walk. And those late 90s Yankee teams really did weaponize the walk...

[mvp 78]

Craig Kimbrel’s lofty asking price — a reported six years and $100MM — and the lack of big-market clubs currently willing to spend on a late-inning reliever could present the right-hander with a difficult market this winter, Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes. Olney likens the situation to last year’s tepid market for J.D. Martinez — a similarly elite player for his position (designated hitter) who lingered on the open market until landing in Boston in late February — a match that long seemed inevitable. The Red Sox may be the best bet for Kimbrel, too, Olney opines, especially given the plethora of more affordable options for smaller and mid-market clubs to pursue even if they do want to bolster the back end of their bullpens.

[moonslav59]

Harvey signs with the Angels for $11M /1 year with $3M in possible incentives.