And the off season begins (2018-19)

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect the Red Sox were expecting David Price to post an annual 5.1 fWAR that the lefthander averaged in the six previous seasons instead of the 2.9 fWAR Price has averaged in three seasons with the Sox.

 

One player dropped off more than the other.

 

But you can't even put a dollar value on Price's magnificent contributions to the Red Sox 2018 World Series championship.

[moonslav59]

I suspect the Red Sox were expecting David Price to post an annual 5.1 fWAR that the lefthander averaged in the six previous seasons instead of the 2.9 fWAR Price has averaged in three seasons with the Sox.

 

One player dropped off more than the other.

 

I never said Price met expectations, especially for the regular seasons.

 

Yes, Price dropped off more than Cano, and I've said they are close to even and can be classified as "decent so far" or "not too good so far".

 

I'm a big fan of fangraphs, but their money value numbers seem inflated.

 

If you think Cano has been worth his contract, fine. Call him "good," and I won't complain.

 

Do you think Price deserves some added value for his 2018 playoff performances?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm a big fan of fangraphs, but their money value numbers seem inflated.

 

The fangraphs values are based on actual dollars per WAR for actual free agents. The reason the dollars seem inflated is because all the busts like Pablo are included.

[moonslav59]

The fangraphs values are based on actual dollars per WAR for actual free agents. The reason the dollars seem inflated is because all the busts like Pablo are included.

 

It's hard to imagine any of these guys are worth the money they say they are.

 

I've never agreed with that part of fangraphs, but it is what it is.

[jacksonianmarch]

In 4.5 seasons with the Mariners, he posted 2 excellent seasons (5.6 and 6.2 WAR), 2 good seasons (2.8 and 3.2WAR) and one excellent half season (2.9WAR). He finished 2018 as a very good defensive second baseman as well, so even if the offense starts to drop he can still play the position. The Mets are foolishly going for it this year. Yes, they have the starting staff. Yes, they now have the bullpen. But even with the additions of Cano and Ramos, the lineup is very uneven. The one thing about Cano that has always been true is that he almost never is the offensive leader on the club. For years, he was overshadowed by ARod and Jeter in NY. He goes to SEA and Cruz is the offensive leader. He is always a great secondary piece. Now while the Mets have offensive talent, they are basically asking Cano, at 36, to be the main guy. It isn't gonna work well.

[dgalehouse]

The Mets and their new G.M. have been much ridiculed . Maybe people are a little too quick to dismiss them . Personally, I think they have an excellent shot at winning the N.L. East . If I were a Met fan , I would much rather have that than be looking at a " rebuilding " year .

[jacksonianmarch]

The Mets and their new G.M. have been much ridiculed . Maybe people are a little too quick to dismiss them . Personally, I think they have an excellent shot at winning the N.L. East . If I were a Met fan , I would much rather have that than be looking at a " rebuilding " year .

 

How big is their window, realistically? 2 years? The Mets always make a splash ahead of what they think is a chance to win. Their chance to win was after 2015 when they went to the WS. Instead, they got cheap and lost. Their offense crumbled and their leader ended up on long term DL stint. They do have a shot to win the ALE, I agree there. But a win of the weakest division in the NL and a swift kick out of the playoffs isn't entirely desirable. Yes, their pitching staff is formidable. But their wagon is hitched to DeGrom (who is awesome), Thor (who is awesome when healthy) and Wheeler (who has had one great healthy season following years of bad health). Matz is a good 4th starter and you can pick Lugo as their 5, I guess. Their staff wont be an issue. But they cannot hit. Their best hitter is a 36 yr old guy coming off a roid suspension. Their OF has promise, but cannot stay on the field and cannot consistently contribute. They did just get a catcher who can hit, but he cannot stay on the field. The left side of their infield is a mess offensively. Their 1b is Dom Smith, who sucks. They're not a championship level offense and with the era of the superteam, they're doomed from the start. Maybe Brodie just wants to hang more ALE title flags from the walls?

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to imagine any of these guys are worth the money they say they are.

 

I've never agreed with that part of fangraphs, but it is what it is.

 

The calculation doesn't really measure what the players are worth. All it really tells you is how much the average free agent is getting paid per WAR.

 

Like I say it is inflated because there have been so many free agent busts.

[moonslav59]

The calculation doesn't really measure what the players are worth. All it really tells you is how much the average free agent is getting paid per WAR.

 

Like I say it is inflated because there have been so many free agent busts.

 

I get it.

 

I think using these numbers to show a signing has worked or not is a bit out of hand.

 

Cano has not done poorly, but he fell short of expectations, and the M's never made the playoffs in those 5 years. He has 5 left at ages 36-40. I'm thinking the signing will be viewed as bad, and the caught cheating aspect breaks any tie-breaker.

 

Price has not lived up to the hype either, but at least he had a direct role in us winning a ring and making the playoffs all 3 years he was here. He has 4 years left and is younger than Cano. My guess is his ending won't be as bad as Cano's.

 

It's just a guess.

[notin]

The calculation doesn't really measure what the players are worth. All it really tells you is how much the average free agent is getting paid per WAR.

 

Like I say it is inflated because there have been so many free agent busts.

 

It’s also slightly misused due to it’s fluid nature. Is it really fair to use the 2018 dollar value of fWAR to calculate the return on a player who was signed during a much lower valuation? By that logic, it becomes easier to justify the worth of long term contracts because the value of the early years keeps increasing...

[harmony]

It’s also slightly misused due to it’s fluid nature. Is it really fair to use the 2018 dollar value of fWAR to calculate the return on a player who was signed during a much lower valuation? By that logic, it becomes easier to justify the worth of long term contracts because the value of the early years keeps increasing...

FanGraphs separates out the fWAR and valuation for each year and it's clear that the system adjusts for the fluctuations in WAR value.

 

For example, an fWAR was worth 7.94 when Mookie Betts posted 4.8 fWAR in 2015, 8.02 when he posted 8.2 fWAR in 2016, 8.08 when he posted 5.3 fWAR in 2017 and 7.99 when he posted 10.4 fWAR this year:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13611&position=OF#value

[harmony]

I get it.

 

I think using these numbers to show a signing has worked or not is a bit out of hand.

 

Cano has not done poorly, but he fell short of expectations, and the M's never made the playoffs in those 5 years. He has 5 left at ages 36-40. I'm thinking the signing will be viewed as bad, and the caught cheating aspect breaks any tie-breaker.

 

Price has not lived up to the hype either, but at least he had a direct role in us winning a ring and making the playoffs all 3 years he was here. He has 4 years left and is younger than Cano. My guess is his ending won't be as bad as Cano's.

 

It's just a guess.

This Seattle fan dislikes long-term contracts and was livid when the Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract in December 2013.

 

Nevertheless Cano exceeded expectations with 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, over his five seasons in Seattle. Cano's not to blame for the Mariners' postseason drought.

 

David Price's World Series redemption does not compensate for his otherwise underwhelming performance. Bless those emotions that result in irrational valuations.

 

I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.

Edited December 17, 2018 by harmony

[moonslav59]

 

 

I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.

 

I'm not talking about current FA value, I'm asking if price's 2018 playoff heroics added to the total value that fangraphs does not count (in your mind).

 

Surely, it was worth something. (Note: one could argue his other playoff performances subtracted from that total value.)

[notin]

But when Cano signed his contract, 1 fWAR was worth closer to $5mill and he was valued at $28mill for his 5.6 fWAR season. Now, nearly 4 years later, that same season in the past is being valued at $39mill, despite it not getting any better. And that extra $11mill of value goes a long way to making subsequent years look better despite that they might be getting worse.

 

And this only accumulates over the life of the contract. When 1 fWAR is valued at $10mill, which could happen during his deal, his first year has now doubled in value to $56mill, making the later years look more justified when in reality, they may not be...

[moonslav59]

But when Cano signed his contract, 1 fWAR was worth closer to $5mill and he was valued at $28mill for his 5.6 fWAR season. Now, nearly 4 years later, that same season in the past is being valued at $39mill, despite it not getting any better. And that extra $11mill of value goes a long way to making subsequent years look better despite that they might be getting worse.

 

And this only accumulates over the life of the contract. When 1 fWAR is valued at $10mill, which could happen during his deal, his first year has now doubled in value to $56mill, making the later years look more justified when in reality, they may not be...

 

My head is spinning, but I actually understood this!

 

[Bellhorn04]

I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.

 

Price's postseason heroics should add something to any evaluation of his 2018 season. These are real games we're talking about.

 

As for Mookie, yes, his postseason hitting numbers should detract, but of course his fielding and baserunning would also have to be figured in.

[moonslav59]

Price's postseason heroics should add something to any evaluation of his 2018 season. These are real games we're talking about.

 

As for Mookie, yes, his postseason hitting numbers should detract, but of course his fielding and baserunning would also have to be figured in.

 

Good points. That catch in Houston was worth $10M alone!

[Bellhorn04]

But when Cano signed his contract, 1 fWAR was worth closer to $5mill and he was valued at $28mill for his 5.6 fWAR season.

 

Where did you get the $28mill number from?

[kenmeister]

This Seattle fan dislikes long-term contracts and was livid when the Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year contract in December 2013.

 

Nevertheless Cano exceeded expectations with 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, over his five seasons in Seattle. Cano's not to blame for the Mariners' postseason drought.

 

David Price's World Series redemption does not compensate for his otherwise underwhelming performance. Bless those emotions that result in irrational valuations.

 

I doubt the Price's World Series heroics enhanced his value any more than Mookie Betts' disappointing postseason production diminished his value.

 

I would be shocked if the last 5 years of Cano's contract are at all justifiable.

[Spudboy]

I

 

Why not? There’s no rule that you have to use them all.

 

The more mediocrities you have, the more likely one of them works out...

 

Yup. That is a large part of building a functional pen.

[moonslav59]

I would be shocked if the last 5 years of Cano's contract are at all justifiable.

 

Certainly, I had that more in mind than his first 5 years.

 

Cano had a lot of value in his first 5 years, but I still think he fell short of expectations and never did enough to lead the team to the playoffs.

[notin]

Where did you get the $28mill number from?

 

5.6 fWAR times $5mill per Win Above Replacement...

[notin]

Good points. That catch in Houston was worth $10M alone!

 

The one Benintendi made?

[moonslav59]

The one Benintendi made?

 

Maybe $15M!

 

(Joking, of course)

[Bellhorn04]

5.6 fWAR times $5mill per Win Above Replacement...

 

And where'd you get the $5mill per WAR?

[harmony]

But when Cano signed his contract, 1 fWAR was worth closer to $5mill and he was valued at $28mill for his 5.6 fWAR season. Now, nearly 4 years later, that same season in the past is being valued at $39mill, despite it not getting any better. And that extra $11mill of value goes a long way to making subsequent years look better despite that they might be getting worse.

 

And this only accumulates over the life of the contract. When 1 fWAR is valued at $10mill, which could happen during his deal, his first year has now doubled in value to $56mill, making the later years look more justified when in reality, they may not be...

Robinson Cano signed his contract with Seattle in December 2013.

 

In 2013 Billy Butler and Eric Young Jr. each posted 1.0 fWAR, valued by FanGraphs at $7.6 million and $7.1 million, respectively, due to rounding:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=4_30

[Kimmi]

Maybe front-load it and give him an opt-out after 3 years.

 

I don't know what the answer is, but Dombrowski will have to come up with something creative like that.

[Kimmi]

Where did these ten year contracts suddenly come from? Didn't anyone learn from the A-Rod debacle?

 

Contracts have become insane.

 

I really don't like it.

[Kimmi]

It’s smarter to give a 10 year contract to a 26yo than a 5 year contract to a 31yo...

 

Probably, but that doesn't mean that either one is necessarily a good idea.

[moonslav59]

An opt out makes sense. It gives Betts long term insurance, if he gets hurt or, dare I say, gets worse, but it also lets him re-enter the market if salaries keep going up and up and he keeps doing very well or better.

 

The more you front load it, the better chance he opts out, which might be what some of you guys want anyways...(like with Price).