Rafael Devers struggles/triumphs and the future

[Kimmi]

But I don’t want Machado. I’m perfectly content with Devers. He hasn’t even played a full season combined yet. 125 Games, 123 total hits, 20 Hrs. Arb eligible 2021, FA 2024. Sox need long term cost contolled players to resign Betts and whoever else they can long term.

 

^^This.

[notin]

Dombrowski: Devers is not being called up any time soon.

 

One week later, Dombrowski: We are calling up Devers.

 

That equals panic move.

 

I consider that moving on to Plan B. Just because a move was unplanned or done earlier than expected doesn't make it necessarily "panic." Especially if it's easily reversible.

 

I'd rather see the Sox gamble on promoting players rather than go out and sign another David Price or Pablo Sandoval. Those deals strike me as the panic moves, where the Sox do whatever they need to in order to fill a void, whether it's a good idea or not...

[FredLynn]

Devers plus for Machado is probably what would need to happen. The sox shouldn't do that, but that will be the price. Other teams have deeper farms. The sox would have to sell from their current squad

 

Also, no way the O's dump Britton and Machado for Devers, no shot. Britton is a lefty reliever with the stuff to close. He is one hot month from being a massive trade piece at the deadline. I can see him going to Houston for their roided up minor leaguer, Whitley

 

Machado will be a two month rental. He is good, but for a two month rental they aren't going to get Devers or anything like a top prospect. Same for Britton.

[FredLynn]

Dombrowski: Devers is not being called up any time soon.

 

One week later, Dombrowski: We are calling up Devers.

 

That equals panic move.

 

We aren't entitled to know what Dombrowski is thinking or planning. For all we know he was considering bringing up Devers, who was doing very well in the minor leagues, all along. As I have written, there are no better alternatives to play 3B to Devers right now. All we can do is hope that somehow is *potential* is realized soon, because he certainly isn't performing well right now.

As for what the Orioles can get for Machado or Britton, its absurd to think that they will get a haul for either guy unless the player is signed long term before the trade. No GM is going to hand over a top prospect for a two month rental, let alone a starter with *potential*. I would think that the Orioles will try to get something for those two guys rather than let them just walk out the front door, but its likely to be mid level prospects.

[vjcsmoke]

Devers for Machado and Britton are fine as long as Machado agrees to an extension. We only have 113m on the cap next season. We can afford to pay Machado and Sale is on a 1m team option while Betts is still on Arbitration dollars.

[a700hitter]

Devers for Machado and Britton are fine as long as Machado agrees to an extension. We only have 113m on the cap next season. We can afford to pay Machado and Sale is on a 1m team option while Betts is still on Arbitration dollars.

i don't think Machado will agree to a sign and trade.

[jacksonianmarch]

You’ve got $137 mil on the books for next year. You forgot Pablo. Add in a re-sign of Kimbrel and you’re up to $157 mil. Betts got $10 mil in arb year 1. He’s staring at $17 mil next year. Bogey will be $15 mil or so. Bradley will see a raise on his arb number which is currently $6 mil. That’s up to $195 mil. Benefits like health and pension s*** always eat up $15 mil or so. Your at $210 mil. Add in the rest of the arb cases plus minimums and you’re at the max. You lose Pom and Kimbrel at years end. You’ve got enough space to sign one $20 mil AAV FA for 2019 and I expect that to be Kimbrel

[CharlieWhigg]

Devers has actually really improved over the last few weeks, and it's because he's putting the ball in the air more. You need patience with a young kid like him, and it's paying off.

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/06/15/rafael-devers-is-heating-up/

[Kimmi]

I consider that moving on to Plan B. Just because a move was unplanned or done earlier than expected doesn't make it necessarily "panic." Especially if it's easily reversible.

 

I'd rather see the Sox gamble on promoting players rather than go out and sign another David Price or Pablo Sandoval. Those deals strike me as the panic moves, where the Sox do whatever they need to in order to fill a void, whether it's a good idea or not...

 

I 100% agree with your second paragraph. I am glad that the Sox did not go out and sign another Sandoval type player, but called up Devers instead.

 

To be clear, I was not opposed to Devers being called up. But to me, it still smells of panic.

[Kimmi]

We aren't entitled to know what Dombrowski is thinking or planning. For all we know he was considering bringing up Devers, who was doing very well in the minor leagues, all along. As I have written, there are no better alternatives to play 3B to Devers right now. All we can do is hope that somehow is *potential* is realized soon, because he certainly isn't performing well right now.

As for what the Orioles can get for Machado or Britton, its absurd to think that they will get a haul for either guy unless the player is signed long term before the trade. No GM is going to hand over a top prospect for a two month rental, let alone a starter with *potential*. I would think that the Orioles will try to get something for those two guys rather than let them just walk out the front door, but its likely to be mid level prospects.

 

Fair enough point about not knowing what Dombrowski's true intentions were with Devers.

 

As far as what the Os can get for Machado and Britton, that depends on how desperate the teams are. The Red Sox aren't, or shouldn't be, anywhere near the point of desperation to make a trade for Machado that involves giving up a player like Devers.

 

Actually for me, I would not want Machado even if the Os gave him to us for free. That is 100% the emotional side of me talking, not the rational side, but that's the way I feel about Machado.

 

I don't think it will happen, but I hope the Yankees spend big to get him.

[Kimmi]

Devers has actually really improved over the last few weeks, and it's because he's putting the ball in the air more. You need patience with a young kid like him, and it's paying off.

https://redsoxunfiltered.com/2018/06/15/rafael-devers-is-heating-up/

 

Exactly.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

i don't think Machado will agree to a sign and trade.

 

I agree, but I would love to see the SOX go after Britton.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but I would love to see the SOX go after Britton.

 

Love to have him but he could be costly.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Britton comes back to his former self, he’ll fetch a top prospect in return. He’s every bit as good as Chap and Miller were when we dealt them

[kenmeister]

 

Actually for me, I would not want Machado even if the Os gave him to us for free. That is 100% the emotional side of me talking, not the rational side, but that's the way I feel about Machado.

 

Wow. Because of that takeout slide?

[Hugh2]

I'm not sure where this $113 million dollars on the books comes from. It's more like 134 million before arbitration and option costs. Also, Chris Sales team option is NOT $1 million, that is the buyout option. Sale will get paid 13.5 million next year, which is still a huge bargain but is about 12.5 million more towards the cap than 1 million. The payroll with options plus arbitration is closer to $210 million. We are over the cap next year. So yes we can trade for Machado, but we'd like have to give up mutliple cost controlled players to sign a guy who is going to prevent us from being able to resign guys like Mookie Betts, and Chris Sale.

 

I'd love me some Machado, but no...just no.

[moonslav59]

You’ve got $137 mil on the books for next year. You forgot Pablo. Add in a re-sign of Kimbrel and you’re up to $157 mil. Betts got $10 mil in arb year 1. He’s staring at $17 mil next year. Bogey will be $15 mil or so. Bradley will see a raise on his arb number which is currently $6 mil. That’s up to $195 mil. Benefits like health and pension s*** always eat up $15 mil or so. Your at $210 mil. Add in the rest of the arb cases plus minimums and you’re at the max. You lose Pom and Kimbrel at years end. You’ve got enough space to sign one $20 mil AAV FA for 2019 and I expect that to be Kimbrel

 

The threshold goes up $9M next season. Minus Sale's $1M raise, that adds $8M. Assuming we may spend $39M over the luxury limit again next year, our actual "limit" might be $245M.

 

Starting at $150M, counting Sale's contract, player benefits and other 40 man roster players, we then look at arbs and FA signings. I'm not sure how much of a raise JBJ will get, and I guess that depends on how well he does going forward.

 

Arb Costs

 

~$17M Betts (2nd or 3 arb years)

~$15M Bogey (3 of 3)

~$7M JBJ (3 of 4)

~$7M ERod (2 of 4)

~$3M Holt (3 of 3)

~$3M Thornburg (3 of 3)

~$2.5M Wright (2 of 3)

~$2.5M Leon (3 of 3) optional

~$1M C Smith (2 of 3)

~$1M Barnes (1 of 3)

~$750K Hembrfee (1 of 3) optional

~$750K Swihart (1 of 4) optional

Total: ~$62M in arb raises

 

Total: $212M with no HRam, Pomeranz, Kimbrel & Kelly.

 

If we go to $244M ($1M under the max penalty line), we'llhave about $32M to spend.

 

I think that gets us Kimbrel and Kelly or replacements in kind.

 

If we shed Leon and keep Swihartand trade Hembree, we can add about $3M there. We'll have to hope Wright, Velazquez, Haley, Johnson and Beeks can replace Pomeranz AND provide the starter depth we need. That will be tight.

 

We don't have much hope in getting help from the farm, but maybe Pedey can get back to respectability, and we get a bump from 1 or 2 of these guys: Smith, Thornburg, Scott, Maddox, Poyner, Walden, Travis and Lin.

 

Basically, we may be able to have the same roster as this year, minus Pomeranz.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

You might be able to sign Kelly, but I’d doubt it. The arb process values wins and with ERod winning lots of games, he may end up breaking the bank. My guess is the Sox will sign a pen arm for cheaper than what’s Kelly will get Edited June 16, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

You might be able to sign Kelly, but I’d doubt it. The arb process values wins and with ERod winning lots of games, he may end up breaking the bank. My guess is the Sox will sign a pen arm for cheaper than what’s Kelly will get

 

You're probably right, but if we shed Leon and Hembree, we can problem afford both.

[Station 13]

If JBJ finished under .200 do you keep him? I certainly wouldn't pay him $7M. DD almost traded him to the Mariners.

[Kimmi]

Wow. Because of that takeout slide?

 

I just think he's a punk, and the takeout slide is a part of it.

[harmony]

If JBJ finished under .200 do you keep him? I certainly wouldn't pay him $7M. DD almost traded him to the Mariners.

When did Dave Dombrowski almost trade Jackie Bradley to Seattle?

[Station 13]

When did Dave Dombrowski almost trade Jackie Bradley to Seattle?

 

When he took over in 2015, offer JBJ for a reliever (Furbush)

[harmony]

When he took over in 2015, offer JBJ for a reliever (Furbush)

All I recall is a refuted report that Seattle turned down a Ben Cherington offer of Jackie Bradley for Charlie Furbush:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/15/8611723/mariners-rejected-red-sox-trade-offer-of-jackie-bradley-jr-for

[Station 13]

All I recall is a refuted report that Seattle turned down a Ben Cherington offer of Jackie Bradley for Charlie Furbush:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/15/8611723/mariners-rejected-red-sox-trade-offer-of-jackie-bradley-jr-for

 

That would have sucked. JBJ next two season were his best.

[a700hitter]

All I recall is a refuted report that Seattle turned down a Ben Cherington offer of Jackie Bradley for Charlie Furbush:

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/5/15/8611723/mariners-rejected-red-sox-trade-offer-of-jackie-bradley-jr-for

Ben knew nothing about pitching.

[Spudboy]

I just think he's a punk, and the takeout slide is a part of it.

 

I agree that Macholo is a punk. This from observing him for 4 or so years.

 

To me that slide is not why he is a punk.

[jung]

Well we could make the case that Devers will come into his own in 2019 though I think that is one year optimistic. Beni should be prime in 2019. They are both a bit too young to be carrying as much of the burden as they have for a team with post season expectations. Here they are tonight still in diapers, batting from the 2 and 4 holes against a LH pitcher.

 

Getting to the post season...not a problem for this team. Not sure we can expect much from them in the post season unless DD pulls a rabbit out of a hat at the deadline. Not sure he has the ammo to do that this year.

[oldtimer]

The threshold goes up $9M next season. Minus Sale's $1M raise, that adds $8M. Assuming we may spend $39M over the luxury limit again next year, our actual "limit" might be $245M.

 

Starting at $150M, counting Sale's contract, player benefits and other 40 man roster players, we then look at arbs and FA signings. I'm not sure how much of a raise JBJ will get, and I guess that depends on how well he does going forward.

 

Arb Costs

 

~$17M Betts (2nd or 3 arb years)

~$15M Bogey (3 of 3)

~$7M JBJ (3 of 4)

~$7M ERod (2 of 4)

~$3M Holt (3 of 3)

~$3M Thornburg (3 of 3)

~$2.5M Wright (2 of 3)

~$2.5M Leon (3 of 3) optional

~$1M C Smith (2 of 3)

~$1M Barnes (1 of 3)

~$750K Hembrfee (1 of 3) optional

~$750K Swihart (1 of 4) optional

Total: ~$62M in arb raises

 

Total: $212M with no HRam, Pomeranz, Kimbrel & Kelly.

 

If we go to $244M ($1M under the max penalty line), we'llhave about $32M to spend.

 

I think that gets us Kimbrel and Kelly or replacements in kind.

 

If we shed Leon and keep Swihartand trade Hembree, we can add about $3M there. We'll have to hope Wright, Velazquez, Haley, Johnson and Beeks can replace Pomeranz AND provide the starter depth we need. That will be tight.

 

We don't have much hope in getting help from the farm, but maybe Pedey can get back to respectability, and we get a bump from 1 or 2 of these guys: Smith, Thornburg, Scott, Maddox, Poyner, Walden, Travis and Lin.

 

Basically, we may be able to have the same roster as this year, minus Pomeranz.

 

 

I see no reason to keep Swihart as he is not having the kind of year we need from a backup catcher. Better to lose two catchers and try to find another decent younger catcher in the market. We can use someone from the minors if we need a third backup if our primaries get hurt.

 

Hembree is not that great either and probably can be replaced next year.

 

I have no faith that Pedey will make it back and be viable so that may be sunken costs but Marco Hernandez might be a more realistic solution at 2nd.

 

I would also look to replace JBJ as he is having a terrible year at the plate. Should have done it this year but to carry on with him would be a huge mistake.

 

Chavis is likely to make the ML roster some time next year as well.

 

I tthink Pomeranz can be replaced from within.

[Kimmi]

I agree that Macholo is a punk. This from observing him for 4 or so years.

 

To me that slide is not why he is a punk.

 

No, the slide is not why he is a punk. He was a punk well before the slide.