Rafael Devers struggles/triumphs and the future

[moonslav59]

I think you are looking at things with rosy glasses, but you we both have the tincture of time to see how things go. If the sox do address the lineup, they will do it in late July, so we have a month and a half to see where things shake out.

 

The guys in question are JBJ, the catcher duo, Nunez, and Devers.

 

JBJ has a history of streaks, clearly, but he has shown no evidence that he will snap out of it. Also, he has proven to be able to hit like s*** for a whole season during his earlier years. There is a chance he gets his act together, but there is also a good chance that he never recovers to the point of being a useful offensive player

 

I have no faith in Leon and Vasquez. Neither can hit well. Vaz got a nice contract out of a unicorn season for him. They will continue to be a black hole

 

Nunez doesn't look right. He isn't a great hitter at baseline aside from high BABIP seasons the last 2 years. I wonder if he is injured. Holt will sub in for him, but Holt has proven to be great in short samples but terrible when relied upon heavily

 

Devers, who knows. He's an uber talented hitter who has a huge hole in his swing and has shown no ability to work on it

 

There is no guarantee your guys rebound. We shall see over the next 6 weeks if they do

 

1) JBJ showed no evidence of snapping out of it in every season, then he did.

 

Besides, how is an .831 OPS over the last 28 days "no evidence?" That's not "rosy glasses:" that's facts.

 

2) Devers may very well take more than a year to "adjust," but the kid is a natural hitter going through an expected rough patch.

 

3) Nunez has career numbers that do not look great, but he's been pretty good over the last 2-3 years. He does not project to be a black hole. Why would you think he does based on just 2 months? (Yes, Pedey might not ever come back.)

 

4) Vaz and Leon could very well go under .700 from now to October, but they should not be at .450, like they were over the first 6-7 weeks. They've both shown signs of improving their offense recently.

 

Maybe one-by-one, none of the 4 slots look to hit .800 going forward, but to assume all 4 will hit below .710 or so for the remainder of the season is not probable at all. All we need is two of these guys to hit near their career norm, their 203 year norm or 2017 in Vaz's case:

 

JBJ

Pedey/Nunez/Holt

Vaz/Leon/Swihart

 

All 7 guys have hope, even if some are long shots. The chances that 5 or 6 out of 7 all continue to stink at the plate is just not supported by any data, except whaat they've done over just their recent one-third season.

 

Id this really how you judge all players?

 

Is Stanton destined to end up at .823 this year?

 

Sanchez .735?

 

I think not.

[moonslav59]

There is no guarantee your guys rebound. We shall see over the next 6 weeks if they do.

 

You sound like you are guaranteeing none will rebound.

 

How about the last 6 weeks?

 

 

Leon's OPS was .214 on 4/24. Now it's at .641.

 

Vaz's OPS was at .476 in late April. Now it's at .538, including 2 HRs in his last 5 games.

 

JBJ was at .510 on May 12th. He's over .600 now.

 

Why is the next 6 weeks more important than the last 6 weeks?

 

we only need 1 or 2 of these guys (including the slumping Devers, Nunez, Swihart and the injured Pedey) to continue staying hot to bring 4 black holes to 2.

[kenmeister]

I think you are looking at things with rosy glasses, but you we both have the tincture of time to see how things go. If the sox do address the lineup, they will do it in late July, so we have a month and a half to see where things shake out.

 

The guys in question are JBJ, the catcher duo, Nunez, and Devers.

 

JBJ has a history of streaks, clearly, but he has shown no evidence that he will snap out of it. Also, he has proven to be able to hit like s*** for a whole season during his earlier years. There is a chance he gets his act together, but there is also a good chance that he never recovers to the point of being a useful offensive player

 

I have no faith in Leon and Vasquez. Neither can hit well. Vaz got a nice contract out of a unicorn season for him. They will continue to be a black hole

 

Nunez doesn't look right. He isn't a great hitter at baseline aside from high BABIP seasons the last 2 years. I wonder if he is injured. Holt will sub in for him, but Holt has proven to be great in short samples but terrible when relied upon heavily

 

Devers, who knows. He's an uber talented hitter who has a huge hole in his swing and has shown no ability to work on it

 

There is no guarantee your guys rebound. We shall see over the next 6 weeks if they do

 

And let's not forget Swihart. Now that he's getting more playing time he's really disappointed. It's just too many holes. I'm really hoping they trade for Lowrie.

[Bellhorn04]

And let's not forget Swihart. Now that he's getting more playing time he's really disappointed. It's just too many holes. I'm really hoping they trade for Lowrie.

 

I think the idea of trading for Lowrie is a credible one.

[notin]

And let's not forget Swihart. Now that he's getting more playing time he's really disappointed. It's just too many holes. I'm really hoping they trade for Lowrie.

 

I know the Sox are not going to be able to replace Betts during stretches where he is injured. But they have to be able to do better than Swihart. He really is a waste of a roster spot. ...

[moonslav59]

I know the Sox are not going to be able to replace Betts during stretches where he is injured. But they have to be able to do better than Swihart. He really is a waste of a roster spot. ...

 

I'd rather see Holt out there than Swihart, but with Pedey out and Nunez looking like a shell of his 2017 self, and Devers struggling, we may need him more in the infield than the OF.

 

Hopefully, by the trade deadline, we'll find we don't need Lowrie or a better 4th OF'er.

 

[Spudboy]

I think the idea of trading for Lowrie is a credible one.

 

If he is currently healthy, I guess.

[Slasher9]

If he is currently healthy, I guess.

 

he will pull a muscle his 3rd game back with us.....

[FredLynn]

Back to the thread topic: Devers

 

He has shown me NOTHING. He has no concept of the strike zone and frequently looks totally lost at the plate. Yesterday the blind squirrel found a nut and hit a HR, but for the season he is at .231/.692. Instead of shortening his swing with two strikes he has the same stroke every time, swinging for the downs. A lot of times he swings at balls in the dirt. Defensively he ranks 45th of the 50 AL 3Bmen. Yesterday he booted a sure double play ball. I don't see any improvement there either. His ONLY redeeming feature is his age, but a 21 year old who sucks still sucks. Unfortunately, right now there are no alternatives. I think if Pedroia can somehow make it back I would sit Devers and put Holt at 3B.

Edited June 13, 2018 by FredLynn

[mvp 78]

Back to the thread topic: Devers

 

He has shown me NOTHING. He has no concept of the strike zone and frequently looks totally lost at the plate. Yesterday the blind squirrel found a nut and hit a HR, but for the season he is at .231/.692. Instead of shortening his swing with two strikes he has the same stroke every time, swinging for the downs. A lot of times he swings at balls in the dirt. Defensively he ranks 45th of the 50 AL 3Bmen. Yesterday he booted a sure double play ball. I don't see any improvement there either. His ONLY redeeming feature is his age, but a 21 year old who sucks still sucks. Unfortunately, right now there are no alternatives. I think if Pedroia can somehow make it back I would sit Devers and put Holt at 3B.

 

Rookie has 10 HR's before mid-June sounds good to me. He has room to grow at 3b, but he is making great plays and by all accounts is working his ass off to be the best defensive 3b he can. Even with his throwing issues, he's still a better 3b than Holt. Fangraphs has him at 15th out of 23 qualified players. That's not amazing, but just one spot lower than Cozart (who many people wanted in the offseason) and better than a long time 3b like Longoria and much better than similarly young players like Bregman and Andujar.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

 

Pedey ain't coming back.

[FredLynn]

Rookie has 10 HR's before mid-June sounds good to me. He has room to grow at 3b, but he is making great plays and by all accounts is working his ass off to be the best defensive 3b he can. Even with his throwing issues, he's still a better 3b than Holt. Fangraphs has him at 15th out of 23 qualified players. That's not amazing, but just one spot lower than Cozart (who many people wanted in the offseason) and better than a long time 3b like Longoria and much better than similarly young players like Bregman and Andujar.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d

 

Pedey ain't coming back.

 

His OPS is under .700. That is a more telling stat than his 10 HRs. Not impressed by that unless his OPS is reasonable, which it is not. Furthermore, just watching him play, he has no concept of the strike zone. He is like a very bad version of Vlad Guerrero. Maybe he is working his ass off to improve his defense, but this is a results oriented game, and so far the results are not there. Maybe he is a better defensive 3B than Holt...maybe...but at least Holt isn't useless with a bat in his hands.

I am not saying he is hopeless, but I am saying that his performance to date has been pretty bad.

Pedroia might be back, but not regularly. He is toast.

Edited June 14, 2018 by FredLynn

[Emp9]

His OPS is under .700. That is a more telling stat than his 10 HRs. Not impressed by that unless his OPS is reasonable, which it is not. Furthermore, just watching him play, he has no concept of the strike zone. He is like a very bad version of Vlad Guerrero. Maybe he is working his ass off to improve his defense, but this is a results oriented game, and so far the results are not there. Maybe he is a better defensive 3B than Holt...maybe...but at least Holt isn't useless with a bat in his hands.

I am not saying he is hopeless, but I am saying that his performance to date has been pretty bad.

Pedroia might be back, but not regularly. He is toast.

 

Devers is still a very young player with tremendous bat speed. He lives for a 97 mph FB. To expect zero growing pains is kinda silly. Besides, there would be nothing for him to learn by sending him back down. He needs to take his MLB lumps and learn from them.

[OH FOY]

Other day last 14 days JBJ's OPS was .806 in one day it dropped to .506, today its .398. Not sure about this stat short term. Seems like a Full season stat. Rather look at BA short term. Are you actually hitting the ball. I understand this is a faulty stat too, because you can hit the ball hard at players, or players make good Defensive plays, that's why it is more important to watch, then worry about his numbers. Most of everybody here knows when a player is coming out of a slump, or just not progressing.

Forget the stats, watch the game.

Edited June 14, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

Back to the thread topic: Devers

 

He has shown me NOTHING. He has no concept of the strike zone and frequently looks totally lost at the plate. Yesterday the blind squirrel found a nut and hit a HR, but for the season he is at .231/.692. Instead of shortening his swing with two strikes he has the same stroke every time, swinging for the downs. A lot of times he swings at balls in the dirt. Defensively he ranks 45th of the 50 AL 3Bmen. Yesterday he booted a sure double play ball. I don't see any improvement there either. His ONLY redeeming feature is his age, but a 21 year old who sucks still sucks. Unfortunately, right now there are no alternatives. I think if Pedroia can somehow make it back I would sit Devers and put Holt at 3B.

 

I do not think it is fair to assume devers is a finished product after he was rushed to the major leagues. (Thanks desperate Dave!)

 

This year and next year, he is going to be developing into a more finished product.

 

I love the fact that he is working through his issues on offense and defense and I look for better results once he makes the adjustments needed.

[oldtimer]

I do not think it is fair to assume devers is a finished product after he was rushed to the major leagues. (Thanks desperate Dave!)

 

This year and next year, he is going to be developing into a more finished product.

 

I love the fact that he is working through his issues on offense and defense and I look for better results once he makes the adjustments needed.

 

Personally I don't find your attack on DD to be that amusing.

 

As far as Devers is concerned, he is playing like a young Pablo Sandoval but without the big contract. He has defensive issues, he is heavy and may get heavier, he swings from the heels and doesn't know the strikezone. The good thing is he is still so young and may make progress in all of his weak areas, or some of them or maybe none of them. We shall see. A lot will depend on his coachability and his determination to be a better player. We certainly could use a better third baseman and he may be that guy as he develops.

 

We have said that about JBJ's hitting and now he is in the prime of his career and still has not become a consistent contact hitter. You can hope for guys to get better, but there is no guarantee that they will.

[Kimmi]

Other day last 14 days JBJ's OPS was .806 in one day it dropped to .506, today its .398. Not sure about this stat short term. Seems like a Full season stat. Rather look at BA short term. Are you actually hitting the ball. I understand this is a faulty stat too, because you can hit the ball hard at players, or players make good Defensive plays, that's why it is more important to watch, then worry about his numbers. Most of everybody here knows when a player is coming out of a slump, or just not progressing.

Forget the stats, watch the game.

 

Here's a stat for you. Jackie's BABIP in June is .125.

 

Jackie has hit the ball solidly several times with nothing to show for it.

[Kimmi]

I do not think it is fair to assume devers is a finished product after he was rushed to the major leagues. (Thanks desperate Dave!)

 

This year and next year, he is going to be developing into a more finished product.

 

I love the fact that he is working through his issues on offense and defense and I look for better results once he makes the adjustments needed.

 

I pretty much agree with this post. IMO, calling Devers up before he was ready was a panic move.

 

That said, he's here now and there really isn't any reason for him to be sent back down. By all accounts, he's working very hard at improving on both sides of the ball. It's just going to take some time. Patience, patience, and more patience. The Sox can afford to be patient with him because of their very good W-L record.

[FredLynn]

Personally I don't find your attack on DD to be that amusing.

 

As far as Devers is concerned, he is playing like a young Pablo Sandoval but without the big contract. He has defensive issues, he is heavy and may get heavier, he swings from the heels and doesn't know the strikezone. The good thing is he is still so young and may make progress in all of his weak areas, or some of them or maybe none of them. We shall see. A lot will depend on his coachability and his determination to be a better player. We certainly could use a better third baseman and he may be that guy as he develops.

 

We have said that about JBJ's hitting and now he is in the prime of his career and still has not become a consistent contact hitter. You can hope for guys to get better, but there is no guarantee that they will.

 

I pretty much agree with THIS.

[cp176]

I pretty much agree with THIS.

 

As do i. he was not rushed up. Because he was young and an unfinished product we all hope, does not mean that he was rushed up. Nor was there any panic for God's sake. He was certainly the best available option and regardless of how some feel he really ain't that bad. His fielding is improving and that bat has been productive. He should be left alone. he is our third baseman and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

[Bellhorn04]

As do i. he was not rushed up. Because he was young and an unfinished product we all hope, does not mean that he was rushed up. Nor was there any panic for God's sake. He was certainly the best available option and regardless of how some feel he really ain't that bad. His fielding is improving and that bat has been productive. He should be left alone. he is our third baseman and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

 

I'm with you.

[moonslav59]

Players rarely get called up unless there's a need. Just because the need was great does not make it a panic move.

 

Now, had Pablo been hitting well, Devers might still be in the minors.

[Sox75]

Players rarely get called up unless there's a need. Just because the need was great does not make it a panic move.

 

Now, had Pablo been hitting well, Devers might still be in the minors.

 

 

Well, it didn't help that he was getting fried on the bench ( ok ok well before the games ) with Hanley in 2015?

 

Kidding ..... do I believe it? Yep. Can I substantiate it? Nope.

 

When will this be ok to talk about? Hanley is gone, right?

 

Anyway, winning .... covers up a lot of s***. JBJ, who absolutely refuses to change his plate approach, and Devers, are still around because the Sox are winning.....

 

All is good with the Sox!!

[SoxHop]

Personally I don't find your attack on DD to be that amusing.

 

As far as Devers is concerned, he is playing like a young Pablo Sandoval but without the big contract. He has defensive issues, he is heavy and may get heavier, he swings from the heels and doesn't know the strikezone. The good thing is he is still so young and may make progress in all of his weak areas, or some of them or maybe none of them. We shall see. A lot will depend on his coachability and his determination to be a better player. We certainly could use a better third baseman and he may be that guy as he develops.

 

We have said that about JBJ's hitting and now he is in the prime of his career and still has not become a consistent contact hitter. You can hope for guys to get better, but there is no guarantee that they will.

 

Way to hedge you bet on his success. But I have to say I'm feeling the same way. I think I've down graded Devers from, needs time to succeed to, needs time to hopefully succeed.

 

Lets pick the positive route just to have fun. He's a hitting freak. Say he catches on, he is going to give pitchers fits if he can adjust. This is my bet. Maybe not next year, but in the next few years, that kid is going to be pounding pitchers into the dirt, while blowing bubbles with his chewing gum.

[Spudboy]

I'm with you.

 

So am I, of course.

[moonslav59]

Devers and JBJ both contributed tonight.

 

Let's hope we see more and more in the upcoming days.

[FredLynn]

As do i. he was not rushed up. Because he was young and an unfinished product we all hope, does not mean that he was rushed up. Nor was there any panic for God's sake. He was certainly the best available option and regardless of how some feel he really ain't that bad. His fielding is improving and that bat has been productive. He should be left alone. he is our third baseman and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

 

Just because he is the best available option right now does not mean that his current performance is acceptable. Maybe it will be one day; right now, IMO, its not there yet.

[mvp 78]

Just because he is the best available option right now does not mean that his current performance is acceptable. Maybe it will be one day; right now, IMO, its not there yet.

 

This team has 3 more wins than any other team in baseball. Worrying about a 20 year old 3b who has shown flashes of being the future of your team is wasted energy IMO.

[notin]

Players rarely get called up unless there's a need. Just because the need was great does not make it a panic move.

 

Now, had Pablo been hitting well, Devers might still be in the minors.

 

Agreed.

 

In fact, calling a player up from the minors should rarely be considered a "panic move." Internal moves are always first, since they can be undone if they don't work out. A true "panic move" would be unloading various pieces of the minor league system to hastily fill a need via trade. THEN you're stuck with the guy, regardless of how good he is. Look at Juan Soto in Washington. He is crushing in MLB despite being 19 and having all of 31 minor league at-bats above A-ball. Was that a panic move to call up him and his 1.000+ OPS in MLB?

 

If the Sox demoted Devers today, and went with Holt/Nunez, would it still be a panic move? Devers would have given the Sox 125 games and an OPS of .755 over that stretch. That's not so bad, and beyond the year of service time, it didn't cost the Sox much to get it...

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

In fact, calling a player up from the minors should rarely be considered a "panic move." Internal moves are always first, since they can be undone if they don't work out. A true "panic move" would be unloading various pieces of the minor league system to hastily fill a need via trade. THEN you're stuck with the guy, regardless of how good he is. Look at Juan Soto in Washington. He is crushing in MLB despite being 19 and having all of 31 minor league at-bats above A-ball. Was that a panic move to call up him and his 1.000+ OPS in MLB?

 

If the Sox demoted Devers today, and went with Holt/Nunez, would it still be a panic move? Devers would have given the Sox 125 games and an OPS of .755 over that stretch. That's not so bad, and beyond the year of service time, it didn't cost the Sox much to get it...

 

Calling up Beni was a panic move.

 

Betts rapid ascension in 2014 was a panic move.

 

You know what would also be a panic move? Sending Devers down right now.

[S5Dewey]

Calling up Beni was a panic move.

 

Betts rapid ascension in 2014 was a panic move.

 

You know what would also be a panic move? Sending Devers down right now.

 

I agree completely. Devers is a work in progress but he's delivering more than anyone else on the team can deliver at 3B and it would be difficult to work out a trade for anyone better.

 

IMO his defense is better now than it was in April and while his offense may still be struggling (if you call .755 struggling) it's not realistic to expect all of his game to fall in together in a 3 month period.