A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[vegasbob]

Neither do I. I see a role for a quality left handed reliever. A good quality right handed hitter (could be a 4th outfiellder) would be the next get, but if I could reduce the risk of not getting Pedroia back by getting a youngish second baseman who would be with us for a few years, I would pull the trigger on thar option. Whatever JBJ will give us this year, I don't see us replacing him until next season based on his total performance this year.We also will live with our catching staff although Swihart may be a first man out if we pick up new roster players.

 

A starter may not appear to be the biggest need, and I agree would #3 on a list of 3, BUT Sale, Price and Porcello are a reasonably predictable trio. Eduardo Rodriguez is not as highly dependable and rarely goes deep in a game. Wright can be great or totally blow up . Pomeranz is a zero this year and not someone I would rely on in a playoff situation. There are still over 50% of the season left say 83 starts to fill. Sale has tended to burn out in Sept and will need to space a couple skips in his starts. Price may play to much Fortnite one week. Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez do give spot start capabilities but not for the playoffs.

 

I stick with the idea that a team doesn't get too many chances to go deep in the playoffs so load up this year when you know you will be a WC at the minimum. Budgets and luxury tax be damned. If the Yankees and Red Sox go down to the wire, Cora will be hard pressed to roll Sale out there as much as possible including the end of Sept to get 1st place. Don't over estimate the depth of veteran pitching needed to get past the ALDS. The same key guys have failed 2 years in a row.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Neither do I. I see a role for a quality left handed reliever. A good quality right handed hitter (could be a 4th outfiellder) would be the next get, but if I could reduce the risk of not getting Pedroia back by getting a youngish second baseman who would be with us for a few years, I would pull the trigger on thar option. Whatever JBJ will give us this year, I don't see us replacing him until next season based on his total performance this year.We also will live with our catching staff although Swihart may be a first man out if we pick up new roster players.

 

If the SOX do go after a reliever, please try to get a healthy one.

[moonslav59]

A starter may not appear to be the biggest need, and I agree would #3 on a list of 3, BUT Sale, Price and Porcello are a reasonably predictable trio. Eduardo Rodriguez is not as highly dependable and rarely goes deep in a game. Wright can be great or totally blow up . Pomeranz is a zero this year and not someone I would rely on in a playoff situation. There are still over 50% of the season left say 83 starts to fill. Sale has tended to burn out in Sept and will need to space a couple skips in his starts. Price may play to much Fortnite one week. Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez do give spot start capabilities but not for the playoffs.

 

I stick with the idea that a team doesn't get too many chances to go deep in the playoffs so load up this year when you know you will be a WC at the minimum. Budgets and luxury tax be damned. If the Yankees and Red Sox go down to the wire, Cora will be hard pressed to roll Sale out there as much as possible including the end of Sept to get 1st place. Don't over estimate the depth of veteran pitching needed to get past the ALDS. The same key guys have failed 2 years in a row.

 

We have precious resources and budget space.

 

I do not agree that SP'er is our #3 need, but even if I did, I would not trade for one, unless someone gets hurt.

 

If someone gets hurt after AUG 31st, I still think we can get by with 3 starters and an occasional 4th starter in a 7 game playoff series.

 

I have a lot of confidence in ERod. I'll take 5-6 innings.

 

I like Wright and Velazquez as starters or long relief in the playoffs. They are about as good as #5 & 6 starters can get.

 

To me, our biggest need, and I'm not even saying we need anything (yet) is...

 

1) A hitter who kills lefties (OF/2B/1B?)

 

2) RP'er.

 

3) 2B, if Pedey is out of the pitchure by the deadline.

[moonslav59]

For once, Ben used $70M wisely.

 

He also spent wisely on Uehara, Napoli (the first time), Drew (the first time), Carp and arguably Vic (for his first season). Some would add Dempster to this list.

 

[Slasher9]

Lol!!! Just.. sigh... how dare you use that word. Hahaha

 

Lol 😝

[moonslav59]

Update on recent hitting by the 7-9 hitter on the Yanks and Sox...

 

Summer Stats

 

Sox

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

16-46 (.348)

 

Yanks

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

5-55 (.091)

 

The tide is turning.

 

[SoxHop]

Update on recent hitting by the 7-9 hitter on the Yanks and Sox...

 

Summer Stats

 

Sox

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

16-46 (.348)

 

Yanks

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

5-55 (.091)

 

The tide is turning.

 

 

The only thing I can say about this is that this NEEDED to happen to be a championship team. And that it I think most people on this board were patient enough to know that this was going to happen. WELL DONE TALKSOX brothers, .........we are not total idiots, but we know things can change and can see ebb and flows.

 

The stars will be stars, but the unsung heroes need to carry weight also to make it all work. I was sweating it out as much as everyone.

 

I do not endorse this post, as baseball can change on the dime............. hang in there Sox........ we got a wild ride to a season ahead of us.

Edited June 26, 2018 by SoxHop

[moonslav59]

The only thing I can say about this is that this NEEDED to happen to be a championship team. And that it I think most people on this board were patient enough to know that this was going to happen. WELL DONE TALKSOX brothers, .........we are not total idiots, but we know things can change and can see ebb and flows.

 

The stars will be stars, but the unsung heroes need to carry weight also to make it all work. I was sweating it out as much as everyone.

 

I do not endorse this post, as baseball can change on the dime............. hang in there Sox........ we got a wild ride to a season ahead of us.

 

Yes, of course, our bottom 3 slots could go ice cold starting tomorrow. I get that.

 

I was spurred on to gather these numbers by Jacko's apparent belief that the previous 11 weeks of bottom-of-the-order numbers were doomed to repeat themselves for the rest of the season for the Sox yet struggling Yankee players were expected to rebound and return to the norm.

 

I'm not suggesting our bottom 3 will continue hitting .348 or even .300. Heck, I doubt they hit .280 the rest of the way, but all we need is for them to hit their norm or close to it and for injuries to be held at bay.

[SoxHop]

Yes, of course, our bottom 3 slots could go ice cold starting tomorrow. I get that.

 

I was spurred on to gather these numbers by Jacko's apparent belief that the previous 11 weeks of bottom-of-the-order numbers were doomed to repeat themselves for the rest of the season for the Sox yet struggling Yankee players were expected to rebound and return to the norm.

 

I'm not suggesting our bottom 3 will continue hitting .348 or even .300. Heck, I doubt they hit .280 the rest of the way, but all we need is for them to hit their norm or close to it and for injuries to be held at bay.

 

I know Moon. But Mr. Yank fan was right. Our bottom batting order was horrible. And there was no arguement against it until recently. But the only thing is they were so bad, you knew they weren't going to stay that way. They just needed to get back to what they do, contribute something one in a while. Add that with our 1 thought 5 and Morelands magical year and presto chango......... Mr NY is s***ing his pants more than usual....

 

I got no stats to back this up, but my guess is that there are few championship teams that didn't have their bottom of the order guys get into the fray. Maybe not headline stuff, but be a part of the mix of offense.

[moonslav59]

I know Moon. But Mr. Yank fan was right. Our bottom batting order was horrible. And there was no arguement against it until recently. But the only thing is they were so bad, you knew they weren't going to stay that way. They just needed to get back to what they do, contribute something one in a while. Add that with our 1 thought 5 and Morelands magical year and presto chango......... Mr NY is s***ing his pants more than usual....

 

I got no stats to back this up, but my guess is that there are few championship teams that didn't have their bottom of the order guys get into the fray. Maybe not headline stuff, but be a part of the mix of offense.

 

Yes, their numbers sucked over the first 10-11 weeks, but there were signs they were coming out of it long before the numbers showed any significant bump.

 

MrNY was not the only guy who decided this would be the first year in 4 years that JBJ would not have a hot streak.

 

I get not thinking Leon would repeat his big year, or that Vaz's 2017 might have been a fluke, but to think JBJ, Nunez/Holt, Vaz/Leon would all continue to hit way below their career and recent 2-3 year norm was just not probable. Mr NY seemed to act like it was and should be expected.

 

It thrills me to see their bottom 3 struggle while ours are getting red hot.

 

I hope it continues, for a while anyways.

[SoxHop]

Yes, their numbers sucked over the first 10-11 weeks, but there were signs they were coming out of it long before the numbers showed any significant bump.

 

MrNY was not the only guy who decided this would be the first year in 4 years that JBJ would not have a hot streak.

 

I get not thinking Leon would repeat his big year, or that Vaz's 2017 might have been a fluke, but to think JBJ, Nunez/Holt, Vaz/Leon would all continue to hit way below their career and recent 2-3 year norm was just not probable. Mr NY seemed to act like it was and should be expected.

 

It thrills me to see their bottom 3 struggle while ours are getting red hot.

 

I hope it continues, for a while anyways.

 

Most the time it all averages out Moon......... you know that as much as I do.

[Sox75]

Update on recent hitting by the 7-9 hitter on the Yanks and Sox...

 

Summer Stats

 

Sox

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

16-46 (.348)

 

Yanks

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

5-55 (.091)

 

The tide is turning.

 

 

LOL :0

 

IF this wasn't you Moon, I would mock the hell out of this small sample.

 

I think this was part tongue in cheek, & part hopeful thinking?

 

I'm good with that!

[Hitch]

It does feel like Bradley is due to break out. The amount of hard hit balls he's hit for outs recently seems to be crazy. His breakout is coming, I can feel it.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Totally off topic but I watch that weekly MLB highlight show of the top 50 plays. Several times they showed Reds day games with nothing but empty seats. Last night they showed a field that makes my old high school field look like Augusta National.

 

What happened to this once proud franchise? The Big Red Machine was the greatest team of my lifetime.

[mvp 78]

Totally off topic but I watch that weekly MLB highlight show of the top 50 plays. Several times they showed Reds day games with nothing but empty seats. Last night they showed a field that makes my old high school field look like Augusta National.

 

What happened to this once proud franchise? The Big Red Machine was the greatest team of my lifetime.

 

2013 - 3rd place

2014 - 4th place

2015 - 5th place (.395 winning %)

2016 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2017 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2018 - 5th place (.410 winning %)

 

They are a below .500 team since 2000.

[Slasher9]

Totally off topic but I watch that weekly MLB highlight show of the top 50 plays. Several times they showed Reds day games with nothing but empty seats. Last night they showed a field that makes my old high school field look like Augusta National.

 

What happened to this once proud franchise? The Big Red Machine was the greatest team of my lifetime.

 

i feel like attendance is down in alot of places. the high player salaries that equates to $15 beers and $8 hot dogs is finally catching up to the owners.

[bkzwhitestrican]

2013 - 3rd place

2014 - 4th place

2015 - 5th place (.395 winning %)

2016 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2017 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2018 - 5th place (.410 winning %)

 

They are a below .500 team since 2000.

 

I feel bad for Votto. Or as bad as you can feel for a guy making $112M over the next 5 years.

[moonslav59]

Most the time it all averages out Moon......... you know that as much as I do.

 

Yes, and that was basically my point with Jacko. Our bottom 7-9 hitters would eventually "average out" or return to their norm numbers over the remainder of the season.

 

It didn't matter if their final numbers reached norm- only that they hit their norm from now on.

 

That would or should make up for any declines from players hitting over their norms up to now.

[moonslav59]

LOL :0

 

IF this wasn't you Moon, I would mock the hell out of this small sample.

 

I think this was part tongue in cheek, & part hopeful thinking?

 

I'm good with that!

 

I'm not expecting these number to continue, but the improvement goes beyond just this 4-5 day sample size.

 

JBJ has been hitting the ball hard for a while now, but for a while many were not for hits. Those not paying attention were still bashing JBJ.

 

Vaz is hitting much better than the first 6-8 weeks. It's been for longer than 5 days (.728 last 28 days).

 

I'm not sure if Nunez will ever snap out of it. He looks hobbled. Holt has started declining.

 

If Pedey can come back, maybe he'd give a big boost to the 7-9 totals. Maybe Holt's off season conditioning will pay dividends.

 

Maybe the expected decline of those players off to hot starts will never materialize.

 

I know there's a a lot of optimism in these positions, but we don't need all of them to come true to remain a top 3 offense in MLB.

[moonslav59]

I feel bad for Votto. Or as bad as you can feel for a guy making $112M over the next 5 years.

 

I don't feel bad at all.

 

He likes it there in Cincy.

 

He places that like above winning.

[Slasher9]

Yes, and that was basically my point with Jacko.

 

Red Sox 2 hitter was 0-4 in the last game.

Yankees 2 hitter was 2-4 in the last game.

 

Red Sox will be the WC! Yankees will run away with division!

[bkzwhitestrican]

Red Sox 2 hitter was 0-4 in the last game.

Yankees 2 hitter was 2-4 in the last game.

 

Red Sox will be the WC! Yankees will run away with division!

 

2-4, 1 HR, 1 BB. If he continues at this pace (which he will because he's on the Yankees) he'll hit .500/.600/1.250 with 87HRs, 174 Rs, and 87 RBIs over the next 87 games. That would make him the third best hitter on the team.

[moonslav59]

Funny!

 

 

Look, I've maintained all along that under performing Yankees as well as Red Sox players should return to their norm as the season progresses.

 

The tiny sample size I posted does not mean they will continue like that, but it might be a sign the normalizing has begun.

 

Our offense was pretty weak last year,but our issue was not being unbalanced top to bottom. Our bottom hitters actually we not the problem and weren't too far from our top and middle hitters. Adding JMart and dumping a bunch of non performers should have improved the odds on our bottom 7-9 hitters doing better not worse. We started out very badly, but things are moving in the right direction in that area.

 

Players lost from 2017 by PAs in 2017

553 HRam .750

276 Young .709

188 Marrero .593

118 Rutledge .558

108 Sandoval .622

38 R Davis .595

 

Reduced PAs from 2017

463 Pedey .760

60 Hernandez .628

 

Added:

JD

 

More PAs expected from...

345 Vazquez .735

240 Devers .819

173 Nunez .892

164 Holt .548

 

[Slasher9]

our problem last season was s***** performance from our starting pitchers in 3 of the 4 playoff games.

thats it.

try these whips out for size:

3.75

1.5

2.5

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.05

1.7

1.44

3.0

 

the only ONLY only good whip was.....David Price. in relief role.

october is pitching time. not hitting time.

[moonslav59]

Astros picthers with over 2 IP in playoffs vs BOS

 

WHIP Pitcher IP

1.27 Verlander 8.2

1.06 Keuchel 5.2

2.08 Morton 4.1

1.67 Giles 3.0

2.63 Peacock 2.2

1.71 Devenski 2.1

 

The rest (4 guys)

1.80 (3.1 IP 6 H 0 BB)

[Slasher9]

Astros picthers with over 2 IP in playoffs vs BOS

 

WHIP Pitcher IP

1.27 Verlander 8.2

1.06 Keuchel 5.2

2.08 Morton 4.1

1.67 Giles 3.0

2.63 Peacock 2.2

1.71 Devenski 2.1

 

The rest (4 guys)

1.80 (3.1 IP 6 H 0 BB)

 

not really great either outside of Keuchel and verlander borderline. but when you put 8 runs up in each of the first 2 games you arent worrying about swing and miss stuff.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

2013 - 3rd place

2014 - 4th place

2015 - 5th place (.395 winning %)

2016 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2017 - 5th place (.420 winning %)

2018 - 5th place (.410 winning %)

 

They are a below .500 team since 2000.

 

Yeah I get that. But Lordy I was seeing empty seats for day games that was astonishing, I mean it looked like a crowd of hundreds. At first I thought maybe it was the 17th inning but then I saw it again, and a field that looked like utter crap. So sad.

[moonslav59]

Summer 7-9 Slot Update

 

Sox

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

21-58 (.362)

 

Yanks

1-12 (6/26)

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

6-67 (.090)

 

JBJ is now over .600 (.614) and almost over the Mendoza line (.199).

 

Keep it going JBJ!!!!

 

 

 

[Slasher9]

I ❤️ JBj

[a700hitter]

I ❤️ JBj

I should have picked him in FanDuel.