A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

1. Betts RF

2. Beni LF

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Moreland 1B

6. Nunez 2B

7. Devers 3B

8. Leon C

9. JBJ CF

[moonslav59]

Farrell would have sat JBJ as planned.

[Kimmi]

But he is gone by Sept. He's back to the swing and miss stuff. By Oct you already know he is an auto out during the playoffs.

 

I think the gone by September thing might just be some more fluky stuff, as far as the timing of his streaks go.

[Kimmi]

And that's why Big Papi was clutch.

 

Don't get me started Bell.

[moonslav59]

Summer 7-9 Slot Update

 

Sox

6-12 (6/27)

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

27-70 (.386)

 

Yanks

0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot)

1-12 (6/26)

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

6-75 (.080)

 

I keep expecting things to start moving the other way, but the gap is widening!

[moonslav59]

To be fair, here are this year's slot numbers (before tonight):

 

7 slot (AL Rank)

11. Yankees .649

14. Red Sox .622

 

8 slot

4. Yankees .722

14. Red Sox .589

 

9 slot

1. Yankees .803

5. Red Sox .643

 

We still have a long way to go!

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

1-6 slots (before tonight's games)

 

1 slot

1. BOS 1.045

5. NYY .774

 

2 slot

2. NYY .925

9. BOS .762

 

3 slot

3. BOS .875

15. NYY .682

 

4 slot

1. NYY 1.050

2. BOS .988

 

5 slot

5. BOS .762

10. NYY .687

 

6 slot

2. NYY .821

5. BOS .732

 

 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

So happy for JBJ, to get above .200 so quickly is remarkable. So are we back to being worried when Joe Kelly enters the game? Not me, not yet.

[Kimmi]

1-6 slots (before tonight's games)

 

1 slot

1. BOS 1.045

5. NYY .774

 

2 slot

2. NYY .925

9. BOS .762

 

3 slot

3. BOS .875

15. NYY .682

 

4 slot

1. NYY 1.050

2. BOS .988

 

5 slot

5. BOS .762

10. NYY .687

 

6 slot

2. NYY .821

5. BOS .732

 

The Yankees should be afraid. Very afraid!

[Kimmi]

So happy for JBJ' date=' to get above .200 so quickly is remarkable. So are we back to being worried when Joe Kelly enters the game? Not me, not yet.[/quote']

 

I am very happy for JBJ as well.

 

As far as Kelly goes, he has scuffled a bit in June:

 

Pete Abraham

‏Verified account @PeteAbe

8h8 hours ago

 

Joe Kelly in June:

 

7.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 6 BB, 6 K. 2 HRs.

 

That said, I'm not worried about him either. Yet.

[moonslav59]

Most RP'ers go through rough patches here and there.

 

Not long ago, we were talking about DFA'ing Hembree. Now, he's one of our best performing pitchers.

 

I'm not worried.

[moonslav59]

Updated after last night's games:

 

1 slot

1. BOS 1.045

5. NYY .769

 

2 slot

2. NYY .913

9. BOS .760

 

3 slot

3. BOS .887

15. NYY .662 (Unbelievable!)

 

4 slot

1. NYY 1.043

2. BOS .982

 

5 slot

5. BOS .751

10. NYY .678

 

6 slot

2. NYY .820

5. BOS .743

 

7 slot

11. NYY .642

12. BOS .636

 

8 slot

5. NYY .719

11. BOS .604

 

9 slot

1. NYY .795

4. BOS .641

 

The gaps are closing quickly in the 7-9 slots, and we've almosr passed the Yanks in the 7 slot, but there's still a long way to go for our bottom order hitters.

 

 

 

[OH FOY]

Now just have to worry about the Yanks improvement in Pitching. In the Month of June Yanks Team ERA is 2.35. Were doing fine, but if those numbers are sustained, Yanks wont need as much Offense, because they are always in the game, and 1 swing of the bat, might be difference in a win.

23 come from behind wins tells me this, at the half-way point.

Edited June 28, 2018 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Other Sox- Yanks split comps:

 

Team OPS

.790 BOS

.782 NYY

 

vs RHPs

.811 BOS

.771 NYY

 

vs LHPs

.813 NYY

.727 BOS

 

Home

.856 BOS

.810 NYY

 

Away

.754 NYY

.729 BOS

 

1-2 slots

.904 BOS

.839 NYY

 

3-6 slots

.842 BOS

.799 NYY

 

7-9

.729 NYY

.630 BOS

 

 

Under 25 y/o

.861 BOS (1273 PAs)

.762 NYY (1033)

 

26-30 y/o

.838 NYY (1512)

.742 BOS (1150 PAs)

 

31-35 y/o

.743 BOS (721 PAs)

.648 NYY (478)

 

C

.787 NYY

.613 BOS

 

1B

.855 BOS

.656 NYY

 

2B

.788 NYY

.631 BOS

 

3B

.799 NYY

.686 BOS

 

SS

.848 BOS

.780 NYY

 

LF

.875 BOS

.767 NYY

 

CF

.781 NYY

.768 BOS

 

RF

.999 BOS

.891 NYY

 

DH

.856 BOS

.838 NYY

 

RISP

.849 BOS (.806 with 2 outs)

.771 NYY

 

Men On

.816 BOS

.781 NYY

 

Late & Close

.736 NYY

.694 BOS

 

High Leverage

.815 BOS (.836 Medium)

.803 NYY (.810 Medium)

 

At Fenway or Yankee Stadium

.810 BOS

.732 NYY

 

[moonslav59]

Now just have to worry about the Yanks improvement in Pitching. In the Month of June Yanks Team ERA is 2.35. Were doing fine, but if those numbers are sustained, Yanks wont need as much Offense, because they are always in the game, and 1 swing of the bat, and might be difference in a win.

23 come from behind wins tells me this, at the half-way point.

 

Last 28 days

 

OPS

.774 BOS (.824 last 14 days)

.736 NYY (.725 last 14 days)

 

OPS against

.613 NYY (.631 last 14 days)

.637 BOS (.692 last 14 days)

 

ERA

2.35 NYY (2.48 last 14 days)

3.32 BOS (4.26)

 

WHIP

1.02 NYY (1.12 last 14 days)

1.18 BOS (1.22)

[moonslav59]

Current fWAR numbers:

 

4.6 Betts

3.2 JD

2.9 Beni

2.4 Bogey

1.5 Moreland

0.9 Holt

0.8 Devers

0.5 JBJ

0.3 Leon

-0.1 Ramirez

-0.2Lin

-0.3 Vaz

-0.5 Nunez

-0.6 Swihart

 

NYY

3.8 Judge

2.4 Stanton

2.4 Gregorius

2.0 Hicks

1.9 Gardner

1.3 Sanchez

1.2 Torres

0.8 Romine

0.8 Andujar

0.6 Torreyes

0.2 Birs

0.2 Frazier

0.1 Austin

-0,1 Drury

-0.5 Wade

-1.0 Walker

 

Pitching

 

Boston

3.6 Sale

2.0 Porcello

1.7 Price

1.4 ERod

0.3 Johnson

0.1 Wright

-0.1 Pom

 

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Kimbrel

0.5 Kelly

0.4 Velazquez

0.4 Hembree

0.3 Poyner

0.2 Walden

0.1 Smith

 

NYY

4.2 Severino

1.1 Sab

1.0 Gray

0.7 German

0.5 Loaisiga

0.5 Tanaka

0.2 Montgomery

 

1.6 Chapman

1.2 Green

1.0 Robertson

0.8 Holder

0.8 Betances

0.2 Warren

0.1 Cole

-0.4 Shreve

Top 3 SP combined WAR

7.3 BOS

6.3 NYY

 

Top 4

8.7 BOS

7.0 NYY

 

Top 4 Pen

4.6 NYY

2.6 BOS

 

Top 5 pen

5.4 NYY

3.0 BOS

 

When you compare us to the Yanks, the only clear weakness we have is with the pen. Although our pen has seemingly over performed for about a year and a half now, maybe they should start getting the respect they deserve, but that being said, we are still way behind the Yanks in this crucial area.

 

With Smith out all year and Thornburg demoted to AA, I'm not so sure we can hope for much help from within. Maybe Workman with a 0.3 fWAR in just 9 IP can fill a need, but we may need to upgrade here, if we want to close this gap with the Yanks (and Astros).

[FredLynn]

Current fWAR numbers:

 

4.6 Betts

3.2 JD

2.9 Beni

2.4 Bogey

1.5 Moreland

0.9 Holt

0.8 Devers

0.5 JBJ

0.3 Leon

-0.1 Ramirez

-0.2Lin

-0.3 Vaz

-0.5 Nunez

-0.6 Swihart

 

NYY

3.8 Judge

2.4 Stanton

2.4 Gregorius

2.0 Hicks

1.9 Gardner

1.3 Sanchez

1.2 Torres

0.8 Romine

0.8 Andujar

0.6 Torreyes

0.2 Birs

0.2 Frazier

0.1 Austin

-0,1 Drury

-0.5 Wade

-1.0 Walker

 

Pitching

 

Boston

3.6 Sale

2.0 Porcello

1.7 Price

1.4 ERod

0.3 Johnson

0.1 Wright

-0.1 Pom

 

0.9 Barnes

0.8 Kimbrel

0.5 Kelly

0.4 Velazquez

0.4 Hembree

0.3 Poyner

0.2 Walden

0.1 Smith

 

NYY

4.2 Severino

1.1 Sab

1.0 Gray

0.7 German

0.5 Loaisiga

0.5 Tanaka

0.2 Montgomery

 

1.6 Chapman

1.2 Green

1.0 Robertson

0.8 Holder

0.8 Betances

0.2 Warren

0.1 Cole

-0.4 Shreve

Top 3 SP combined WAR

7.3 BOS

6.3 NYY

 

Top 4

8.7 BOS

7.0 NYY

 

Top 4 Pen

4.6 NYY

2.6 BOS

 

Top 5 pen

5.4 NYY

3.0 BOS

 

When you compare us to the Yanks, the only clear weakness we have is with the pen. Although our pen has seemingly over performed for about a year and a half now, maybe they should start getting the respect they deserve, but that being said, we are still way behind the Yanks in this crucial area.

 

With Smith out all year and Thornburg demoted to AA, I'm not so sure we can hope for much help from within. Maybe Workman with a 0.3 fWAR in just 9 IP can fill a need, but we may need to upgrade here, if we want to close this gap with the Yanks (and Astros).

 

What's Daniel Bard doing these days?

[Bellhorn04]

What's Daniel Bard doing these days?

 

He's retired, but I'm sure his brother Luke is available.

[MADSTORK]

I am very happy for JBJ as well.

 

As far as Kelly goes, he has scuffled a bit in June:

 

Pete Abraham

‏Verified account @PeteAbe

8h8 hours ago

 

Joe Kelly in June:

 

7.2 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 6 BB, 6 K. 2 HRs.

 

That said, I'm not worried about him either. Yet.

 

 

I said it once I'll say it again, the three stooges should have been shown the door a long time ago. Its obvious outside of Kimbrel there are big time issues. DD missed the boat on Herrera and its going to hurt

[moonslav59]

Summer 7-9 Slot Update

 

Sox

4-9 (6/28)

6-12 (6/27)

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

31-79 (.392)

 

Yanks

0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot)

1-12 (6/26)

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

6-75 (.080)

 

I keep thinking our numbers will start to level off or go down, but they don't.

 

The sample size is growing larger and larger. The gap keeps closing.

 

What was once viewed as our weakness might turn out to be a strength.

[moonslav59]

Updated Sox OPS

1.101 Betts

1.042 JD

.905 Moreland

.882 Beni

.854 Bogey

.787 Holt

.717 Devers

.657 Leon

.649 Nunez

.626 JBJ

.580 Vaz

.404 Swihart

 

JBJ was at .563 before the game on June 24th! It just took 4 games to go up 53 points.

 

He was at .502 on May 19th.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by moonslav59

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

So are we back to being worried when Joe Kelly enters the game? Not me' date=' not yet.[/quote']

 

Yeah about this.....

[Bellhorn04]

I said it once I'll say it again, the three stooges should have been shown the door a long time ago. Its obvious outside of Kimbrel there are big time issues. DD missed the boat on Herrera and its going to hurt

 

You also said we'd be doing well to win 86 games.

 

You're an idiot.

[S5Dewey]

You also said we'd be doing well to win 86 games.

 

You're an idiot.

 

I'll say this about Bell: He has a tremendous command of the obvious.

[Slasher9]

You also said we'd be doing well to win 86 games.

 

You're an idiot.

 

HFX Kryptonite.

[Kimmi]

I said it once I'll say it again, the three stooges should have been shown the door a long time ago. Its obvious outside of Kimbrel there are big time issues. DD missed the boat on Herrera and its going to hurt

 

I don't know who the three stooges are, but our pen will be fine. Herrera is not the only reliever who was available for trade. Dombrowski is sure to add a reliever before the deadline.

[Kimmi]

hfx kryptonite.

 

lol

[notin]

You also said we'd be doing well to win 86 games.

 

You're an idiot.

 

So you are going on record as saying the Sox are not going to go 31-49 (.388) the rest of the way?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I can agree with that...

[Kimmi]

So you are going on record as saying the Sox are not going to go 31-49 (.388) the rest of the way?

 

 

I can agree with that...

 

LOL

 

You guys are getting bold in your predictions.

[Kimmi]

Updated Sox OPS

1.101 Betts

1.042 JD

.905 Moreland

.882 Beni

.854 Bogey

.787 Holt

.717 Devers

.657 Leon

.649 Nunez

.626 JBJ

.580 Vaz

.404 Swihart

 

JBJ was at .563 before the game on June 24th! It just took 4 games to go up 53 points.

 

He was at .502 on May 19th.

 

 

 

Don't look now, but the Sox now have the best offense in terms of runs scored per game.

 

Sox: 5.21

Astros: 5.20

Yanks: 5.10