A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Tanaka has also been slightly worse than average when comparing ERA-. JBJ has been far worse than average. It’s comparing apples and watermelons

 

Is Tanaka going to continue as he has over 11 weeks?

 

That was my point.

 

It seems you only think Yankee players will return to their norm but not Sox players.

[oldtimer]

We have a 50-26 record, tied for the second-best record in baseball. Normally a team in that position wouldn't be subject to as much criticism and analysis as this 2018 Red Sox team is.

 

But of course the catch is, we're behind the Yankees, and if we end the season that way we have to play a damn Wild Card game. That changes the way everything is being looked at.

 

The way I look at it, we are a very good team who may well get forced into a one time winner take all wild card game. What is troubling is that we have not taken steps to make improvements which might result in the Yankees getting to play in the wild card game. True, we don't have a lot of available resources, but why not use what we have to make improvements where we can? The sooner the better.

[Nick]

Is Tanaka going to continue as he has over 11 weeks?

 

That was my point.

 

It seems you only think Yankee players will return to their norm but not Sox players.

 

He's here just wanting to feel good about himself. I want to argue with my fellow Sox fans. We are family. He's an outsider butting into our dinner conversation. Nice to have him on holidays but not every Sunday.

[moonslav59]

Well, with all the criticism of our 7-9 hitters and the dooming of them for the rest of the season might finally be exposed as Yankee wishful thinking.

 

Our 7-9 hitters are 11 for their last 28 (.393).

 

Tiny sample size?

 

Yes, but there were signs of a little life over the past few weeks, especially when compared the first 4-6 weeks of the season.

 

[moonslav59]

Nice to see Devers get back over .700.

 

Moreland's back over .900.

 

Here's the updated numbers:

 

1.116 Betts (went down despite getting on base in 3 of 6 PAs tonight!)

1.037 JMart

.919 Moreland

.915 Beni

 

.843 Bogey

.796 Holt

 

.708 Devers

 

.631 Nunez

.630 Leon

 

.570 JBJ

.550 Vazquez

 

.393 Swihart

 

 

[SoxHop]

Nice to see Devers get back over .700.

 

Moreland's back over .900.

 

Here's the updated numbers:

 

1.116 Betts (went down despite getting on base in 3 of 6 PAs tonight!)

1.037 JMart

.919 Moreland

.915 Beni

 

.843 Bogey

.796 Holt

 

.708 Devers

 

.631 Nunez

.630 Leon

 

.570 JBJ

.550 Vazquez

 

.393 Swihart

 

 

 

JBJ has crap luck. He missed out on the best stat padding game of the season.

[moonslav59]

JBJ has crap luck. He missed out on the best stat padding game of the season.

 

Yes, what a bummer for JBJ,

 

Maybe, we keep it going tomorrow.

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect we won't be having any lectures from Jacko on our offensive woes today, at least.

[S5Dewey]

I suspect we won't be having any lectures from Jacko on our offensive woes today, at least.

 

That in itself will be a blesssing. Last night may even keep Harmony at bay too!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I suspect we won't be having any lectures from Jacko on our offensive woes today, at least.

 

Why is Yankem fan and all around know-it-all Jacko jamming this thread? Can't we just give him a place to go?

[Bellhorn04]

That in itself will be a blesssing. Last night may even keep Harmony at bay too!

 

Nice thought, but a day at Talksox isn't complete until someone makes a silly trade proposal and Harmony assaults us with mind-numbing fWAR comparisons and multiple web links.

[Bellhorn04]

Why is Yankem fan and all around know-it-all Jacko jamming this thread? Can't we just give him a place to go?

 

He can't just stay on his Yankee Game Thread, he gets lonely there.

[Maxbialystock]

Good news on the hitting front came just in time because Wright last night reminded us of the fragility of the knuckle ball--10 runs worth in 3.1 innings. Wright had by far the best ERA in the rotation before last night because he was simply unhittable and that knuckle curve and not-horrible fastball were like icing on the cake. Only this time the cake came out flat, flat, flat.

 

So now maybe our rotation ain't the 2d best in the majors. A weeks or so ago the Sox had the third best ERA in MLB, and now they are 7th. The good news is they are still 3d best in the AL behind the Yankees and Astros. And they are #1 in MLB in runs scored.

 

And something else I saw in the series at Yankees stadium where the Sox lost 2 of 3 but had a shot at winning all 3 and again later in Seattle when they split and again last night when Wright had that horrible 1st. This team is tougher than they look. When JBJ is in CF they got three midgets in the outfield. Devers still has his baby fat out there at 3B and sometimes seems very undisciplined. Bogie, who should be short, is a tall SS who ain't brilliant by any means, but sure wants to keep that job. 2B isn't a disaster, but it sure doesn't look the way it did when Pedey--still on the DL--was out there. Both catchers are good on defense, but not on offense.

 

But overall this lineup, led by JDM who is pretty much on par with Big Papi in his best seasons--wild applause for DD for getting him--is just plain tough even though some games they can get shut down. But to me that's OK because they are pretty young: only Moreland, JDM, and Nunez/Holt are over 30.

 

And, mad as I am at what he did last night, just maybe Cora is one of the reasons these guys seem to be pretty resilient.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

Good news on the hitting front came just in time because Wright last night reminded us of the fragility of the knuckle ball--10 runs worth in 3.1 innings. Wright had by far the best ERA in the rotation before last night because he was simply unhittable and that knuckle curve and not-horrible fastball were like icing on the cake. Only this time the cake came out flat, flat, flat.

 

So now maybe our rotation ain't the 2d best in the majors. A weeks or so ago the Sox had the third best ERA in MLB, and now they are 7th. The good news is they are still 3d best in the AL behind the Yankees and Astros. And they are #1 in MLB in runs scored.

 

The Yanks have a slight edge on us in runs scored per game, 5.23 to 5.16.

[Maxbialystock]

The Yanks have a slight edge on us in runs scored per game, 5.23 to 5.16.

 

They sure do, but I was hoping no one would notice. Plus, to be honest, I do think they have the best lineup in MLB.

[Nick]

One final word on Devers...

 

We complain a lot about lack of development at the farm (sure starting pitching more so than position players). When a kid such as Devers come along management has to give him a long leash.

 

At one point, rightfully or wrongfully, Sox decided Travis Shaw was NOT our future 3B nor 1B. Moon had great analysis on Shaw before the trade. I areed with him

 

Moncada was given a quick look, long enough to convince DD that Devers was better AT 3B. (unknown to us). Moncada was blocked at 2B by Pedey. A big piece was needed to acquire Sale and there you go.

 

We can all see that Devers is talented. He also has physical skills to be a pretty good 3B. Experience, playing time is needed.

 

We have given mile long rope to JBJ. We can be patient with Devers. We have 5 Freakin' years of control after this year. Be happy.

[moonslav59]

So now maybe our rotation ain't the 2d best in the majors. A weeks or so ago the Sox had the third best ERA in MLB, and now they are 7th. The good news is they are still 3d best in the AL behind the Yankees and Astros. And they are #1 in MLB in runs scored.

 

ERA- (or ERA+) is a much better tool on judging or ranking team pitching success. Leaving Wright in so long yesterday knocked us down a notch, but we are still 4th in MLB in ERA-

 

71 Astros

80 Cubs

81 Yankees

82 Red Sox

84 Brewers

87 Nats

 

On offense, we've scored 15 more runs than the Yanks but have played 4 more games. They still edge us in runs scored per game.

 

[moonslav59]

One final word on Devers...

 

We complain a lot about lack of development at the farm (sure starting pitching more so than position players). When a kid such as Devers come along management has to give him a long leash.

 

At one point, rightfully or wrongfully, Sox decided Travis Shaw was NOT our future 3B nor 1B. Moon had great analysis on Shaw before the trade. I areed with him

 

Moncada was given a quick look, long enough to convince DD that Devers was better AT 3B. (unknown to us). Moncada was blocked at 2B by Pedey. A big piece was needed to acquire Sale and there you go.

 

We can all see that Devers is talented. He also has physical skills to be a pretty good 3B. Experience, playing time is needed.

 

We have given mile long rope to JBJ. We can be patient with Devers. We have 5 Freakin' years of control after this year. Be happy.

 

Well said, and it baffles me how anyone would suggest we trade him...let alone for a rental.

[moonslav59]

He can't just stay on his Yankee Game Thread, he gets lonely there.

 

I posted this on his thread....

 

Last 2 games 7-9 batters:

 

1 for 19 Yankees

 

11 for 28 Red Sox

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

One final word on Devers...

 

We complain a lot about lack of development at the farm (sure starting pitching more so than position players). When a kid such as Devers come along management has to give him a long leash.

 

At one point, rightfully or wrongfully, Sox decided Travis Shaw was NOT our future 3B nor 1B. Moon had great analysis on Shaw before the trade. I areed with him

 

Moncada was given a quick look, long enough to convince DD that Devers was better AT 3B. (unknown to us). Moncada was blocked at 2B by Pedey. A big piece was needed to acquire Sale and there you go.

 

We can all see that Devers is talented. He also has physical skills to be a pretty good 3B. Experience, playing time is needed.

 

We have given mile long rope to JBJ. We can be patient with Devers. We have 5 Freakin' years of control after this year. Be happy.

 

It's early in both careers but to date at least Devers has shown the ability to be productive ML hitter, something Moncada has yet to prove. I can't say I'm unhappy about that, I sure don't want Moncada to turn into Jeff Bagwell

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

A bad back required muscle relaxers and that put me out early last night, at the time the Sox were down 10-6. I was shocked when I saw the final score, I'm now in the process of seeing how that happened. I'll be damned, Blake actually got a hit.

[moonslav59]

It's early in both careers but to date at least Devers has shown the ability to be productive ML hitter' date=' something Moncada has yet to prove. I can't say I'm unhappy about that, I sure don't want Moncada to turn into Jeff Bagwell[/quote']

 

I'm glad we kept Devers, but Moncada's numbers are not that far apart.

 

Moncada (524 PAs) .226 17 47 (.707 OPS and rising) 190 Ks

 

RDevers (547 PAs) .258 22 69 (.757 OPS and falling) 136 Ks

 

[moonslav59]

A bad back required muscle relaxers and that put me out early last night' date=' at the time the Sox were down 10-6. I was shocked when I saw the final score, I'm now in the process of seeing how that happened. I'll be damned, Blake actually got a hit.[/quote']

 

Hope your back improves, Yaz.

 

I know what it's like to have back pain.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm glad we kept Devers, but Moncada's numbers are not that far apart.

 

Moncada (524 PAs) .226 17 47 (.707 OPS and rising) 190 Ks

 

RDevers (547 PAs) .258 22 69 (.757 OPS and falling) 136 Ks

 

 

Devers has an .821 OPS over his last 16 games so his OPS is back on the rise a bit, in my cherry-picking Pollyanna view.

[S5Dewey]

Why is Yankem fan and all around know-it-all Jacko jamming this thread? Can't we just give him a place to go?

 

Ya can't do it, and you can't even call him a troll. He's got seniority and is grandfathered against posts like that.

[moonslav59]

Devers has an .821 OPS over his last 16 games so his OPS is back on the rise a bit, in my cherry-picking Pollyanna view.

 

Yes, I'm sure Devers will be fine.

 

Here's a pessimist's cherry-picking view:

 

.707 Moncada with CWS

.708 Devers this year

 

[a700hitter]

Yes, I'm sure Devers will be fine.

 

Here's a pessimist's cherry-picking view:

 

.707 Moncada with CWS

.708 Devers this year

 

I'll keep Devers over Moncada. Moncada has better speed, and he may prove to have more power, but imo Devers is the better pure hitter. Moncada's swing has holes. Devers although he swings from his heels on almost every swing has better plate coverage and is better able to hit the ball where it is pitched. Most guys can't swing that hard and cover the plate that well. With a little more discipline to stay inside the zone, i think he will be a very special hitter.

[harmony]

A bad back required muscle relaxers and that put me out early last night' date=' at the time the Sox were down 10-6. I was shocked when I saw the final score, I'm now in the process of seeing how that happened. I'll be damned, Blake actually got a hit.[/quote']

Get well, my friend.

[a700hitter]

Ya can't do it, and you can't even call him a troll. He's got seniority and is grandfathered against posts like that.

We can’t call him a troll, because he has been here in good times and bad for the Yankees. He does like to troll from time to time. I guess we can call out the action, but not condem him as a troll. I just call him what I call every other Yankee fan, “douche bag.” I have more tolerance for Jackie than most Yankees fans, because he roots for his team behind enemy lines like I do.

[Maxbialystock]

Why are we comparing Devers and Moncada when the deal was for Sale, who I think has been more than satisfactory?

 

Moncada is a year older than Devers and already not as good a ballplayer--hitter, anyway--in my opinion. He is clearly a better athlete, and I am certainly worried about Devers' weight which could seriously erode his potential and even his ability to play a lot. 6 feet tall and 230 pounds (or more) is a little scary even though right now he carries it well.