A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Kimmi]

To me the huge surprise this year is the rotation, now with Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Wright. Sale may not be an ace of aces, but those five are a pretty good average. You had faith in Wright and were dead right. You still believe in Pom and I remain skeptical--no changeup.

 

To get to this point, Price had to come back. Porcello had to come back big time. ERod had to improve. And Wright had to return from serious injury and a long absence.

 

Our rotation has been awesome. If they can stay healthy, we're good to go.

 

I'm not nearly as concerned about our offense as others are.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your rotation has been very good. I'd say it's more on the strength of your back end rather than an overwhelming front end, which makes things dicier come playoffs. Your 2-5 is more like 4 3's.

 

That being said, not being worried about your offense baffles me. Your offense was awesome when Betts was hitting like Bonds circa 2012, JDM was in the running for the batting title and Mitch Moreland forgot he was Mitch Moreland and was OPS'ing over 1.000, ie your offense was unsustainably killing it with a hot top 5. Since Betts started hitting like a human being and Moreland came crashing down to earth, your offense has been pedestrian. Your offense carried an .800+OPS through June 1. Since your lineup became mortal, your team is 21st in runs scored and 19th in OPS. In the AL, your team is only ahead of KC, CWS, TB, and Baltimore in runs and only ahead of those same teams plus Detroit in OPS. In June, your team's OPS is .080 behind the Yankees, and they are slumping in June and nearly 200 points behind Houston, who is killing it. And while your starting pitching has been very good, it isn't the best in the AL (not by a long shot) and is only marginally better than your closest rivals in terms of ERA and your pen is noticeably behind your chief rival. If your pitching was like the O's circa 1971, then I'd say don't worry about it. But your pitching isn't head and shoulders above the rest and your offense has shown its colors once your top 5 stopped hitting at unsustainably ridiculous levels. Your lineup requires lengthening. If you don't lengthen it, then the chances of your team winning it all are small

[Bellhorn04]

Your rotation has been very good. I'd say it's more on the strength of your back end rather than an overwhelming front end, which makes things dicier come playoffs. Your 2-5 is more like 4 3's.

 

That being said, not being worried about your offense baffles me. Your offense was awesome when Betts was hitting like Bonds circa 2012, JDM was in the running for the batting title and Mitch Moreland forgot he was Mitch Moreland and was OPS'ing over 1.000, ie your offense was unsustainably killing it with a hot top 5. Since Betts started hitting like a human being and Moreland came crashing down to earth, your offense has been pedestrian. Your offense carried an .800+OPS through June 1. Since your lineup became mortal, your team is 21st in runs scored and 19th in OPS. In the AL, your team is only ahead of KC, CWS, TB, and Baltimore in runs and only ahead of those same teams plus Detroit in OPS. In June, your team's OPS is .080 behind the Yankees, and they are slumping in June and nearly 200 points behind Houston, who is killing it. And while your starting pitching has been very good, it isn't the best in the AL (not by a long shot) and is only marginally better than your closest rivals in terms of ERA and your pen is noticeably behind your chief rival. If your pitching was like the O's circa 1971, then I'd say don't worry about it. But your pitching isn't head and shoulders above the rest and your offense has shown its colors once your top 5 stopped hitting at unsustainably ridiculous levels. Your lineup requires lengthening. If you don't lengthen it, then the chances of your team winning it all are small

 

This is silly.

 

We're at least going to make it to a Wild Card game. If we do and we advance, we have a good shot with starters like Sale, Price, Porcello and possibly Wright, and hitters like Betts, JD and Bogaerts. It's not like a team has to be hitting on all cylinders to win it all. You just have to win each series.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is silly.

 

We're at least going to make it to a Wild Card game. If we do and we advance, we have a good shot with starters like Sale, Price, Porcello and possibly Wright, and hitters like Betts, JD and Bogaerts. It's not like a team has to be hitting on all cylinders to win it all. You just have to win each series.

 

I'm not talking about making the playoffs. The sox are going to play more than 162 games this year. So will the Yankees. The AL is so watered down that the records are going to be stupid. There is a clear top 4 in the league with NYY, BOS, HOU and SEA really overwhelming their competition. The Guardians look to be the team to beat in the central. That being said, the Mariners have a 6.5 game lead on the 2nd wild card spot and the sox have a 3.5 game lead on them. Nobody is worried that the sox or yanks will end up missing out on October baseball. That being said, when you are facing the best pitching teams in the division in crunch time, don't you think it would behoove you to have a lineup that is 7 or 8 guys deep rather than 5? Even if your rotation pitches out of its mind, you need to win 3 series and possibly one play-in game. You will need offense and right now, yours isn't cutting it

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not talking about making the playoffs. The sox are going to play more than 162 games this year. So will the Yankees. The AL is so watered down that the records are going to be stupid. There is a clear top 4 in the league with NYY, BOS, HOU and SEA really overwhelming their competition. The Guardians look to be the team to beat in the central. That being said, the Mariners have a 6.5 game lead on the 2nd wild card spot and the sox have a 3.5 game lead on them. Nobody is worried that the sox or yanks will end up missing out on October baseball. That being said, when you are facing the best pitching teams in the division in crunch time, don't you think it would behoove you to have a lineup that is 7 or 8 guys deep rather than 5? Even if your rotation pitches out of its mind, you need to win 3 series and possibly one play-in game. You will need offense and right now, yours isn't cutting it

 

All offenses have their ups and downs. I think we'll end up in the top 5.

[Bellhorn04]

Last year was another example of the playoffs being a crapshoot.

 

Cleveland came into the playoffs on one of the greatest rolls any team has ever been on.

 

After the ASB they were 55-20 with a run differential of +180.

 

Bounced in the first round.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last year was another example of the playoffs being a crapshoot.

 

Cleveland came into the playoffs on one of the greatest rolls any team has ever been on.

 

After the ASB they were 55-20 with a run differential of +180.

 

Bounced in the first round.

 

After an epic comeback and a meltdown from two of their most reliable pitchers

[moonslav59]

Your rotation has been very good. I'd say it's more on the strength of your back end rather than an overwhelming front end, which makes things dicier come playoffs. Your 2-5 is more like 4 3's.

 

That being said, not being worried about your offense baffles me. Your offense was awesome when Betts was hitting like Bonds circa 2012, JDM was in the running for the batting title and Mitch Moreland forgot he was Mitch Moreland and was OPS'ing over 1.000, ie your offense was unsustainably killing it with a hot top 5. Since Betts started hitting like a human being and Moreland came crashing down to earth, your offense has been pedestrian. Your offense carried an .800+OPS through June 1. Since your lineup became mortal, your team is 21st in runs scored and 19th in OPS. In the AL, your team is only ahead of KC, CWS, TB, and Baltimore in runs and only ahead of those same teams plus Detroit in OPS. In June, your team's OPS is .080 behind the Yankees, and they are slumping in June and nearly 200 points behind Houston, who is killing it. And while your starting pitching has been very good, it isn't the best in the AL (not by a long shot) and is only marginally better than your closest rivals in terms of ERA and your pen is noticeably behind your chief rival. If your pitching was like the O's circa 1971, then I'd say don't worry about it. But your pitching isn't head and shoulders above the rest and your offense has shown its colors once your top 5 stopped hitting at unsustainably ridiculous levels. Your lineup requires lengthening. If you don't lengthen it, then the chances of your team winning it all are small

 

We're 3rd in runs scored. All teams go through slumps.

 

We're still 3rd after this slump.

 

That's pretty freakin' awesome.

[moonslav59]

I'm not talking about making the playoffs. The sox are going to play more than 162 games this year. So will the Yankees. The AL is so watered down that the records are going to be stupid. There is a clear top 4 in the league with NYY, BOS, HOU and SEA really overwhelming their competition. The Guardians look to be the team to beat in the central. That being said, the Mariners have a 6.5 game lead on the 2nd wild card spot and the sox have a 3.5 game lead on them. Nobody is worried that the sox or yanks will end up missing out on October baseball. That being said, when you are facing the best pitching teams in the division in crunch time, don't you think it would behoove you to have a lineup that is 7 or 8 guys deep rather than 5? Even if your rotation pitches out of its mind, you need to win 3 series and possibly one play-in game. You will need offense and right now, yours isn't cutting it

 

Our 3-6 starters have been great, and you find a way to make that look like a weakness.

 

Sale has pitched great, and the team is 8-8 in his starts.

 

No matter how you spin this, our starters have done a fantastic job, and you know it. Just admit it.

Edited June 22, 2018 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

Given our pitching staff I'll take the Sox chances against any team in a short series. The Sox may not score a lot of runs but they also won't allow a lot of runs. They'll be low scoring games and those games can be won with a break here and there.

My biggest concern is the home field advantage the Yankees have in that bandbox "stadium". If they have home field advantage in all series (and it looks like they may have) that advantage could well be the difference.

[jacksonianmarch]

Given our pitching staff I'll take the Sox chances against any team in a short series. The Sox may not score a lot of runs but they also won't allow a lot of runs. They'll be low scoring games and those games can be won with a break here and there.

My biggest concern is the home field advantage the Yankees have in that bandbox "stadium". If they have home field advantage in all series (and it looks like they may have) that advantage could well be the difference.

 

And the inconsistency at the bottom of your order will kill your team, especially if you have to gain the division in order to avoid playing a series with the Yankees having home field.

 

Look at these OPS's for a second

Batting 7th- .603- 13th in the AL

Batting 8th- .562- 14th in the AL

Batting 9th- .617- 8th in the AL

 

Do any of your guys remember Rey Ordonez? Mets SS who played insane defense but absolutely sucked with the bat? The aggregate OPS of your 7-9 is below Ordonez's career OPS. You are giving an inning away per turn of your lineup. And it isn't like you're killing it outside of your top 4.

 

Batting 1st- 1.054- first by .203

Batting 2nd- .764- 11th in the AL

Batting 3rd- .832- 5th in the AL

Batting 4th- .953- 2nd in the AL

Batting 5th- .760- 5th in the AL

Batting 6th- .749- 4th in the AL

 

Your lineup is being carried by 1, 3, 4, 5. Your 2 slot is hitting well enough, but not compared to peers. That being said, the guy occupying it with regularity now has an OPS over .900. No moves to be made. 1-5, you have guys in your lineup OPS'ing at least .849 or higher, with 4 of those guys above .900. The 6 spot at 4th in the AL is more an indictment on the rest of the AL. 7-9 is a ghost town.

[moonslav59]

And the inconsistency at the bottom of your order will kill your team, especially if you have to gain the division in order to avoid playing a series with the Yankees having home field.

 

Look at these OPS's for a second

Batting 7th- .603- 13th in the AL

Batting 8th- .562- 14th in the AL

Batting 9th- .617- 8th in the AL

 

Do any of your guys remember Rey Ordonez? Mets SS who played insane defense but absolutely sucked with the bat? The aggregate OPS of your 7-9 is below Ordonez's career OPS. You are giving an inning away per turn of your lineup. And it isn't like you're killing it outside of your top 4.

 

Batting 1st- 1.054- first by .203

Batting 2nd- .764- 11th in the AL

Batting 3rd- .832- 5th in the AL

Batting 4th- .953- 2nd in the AL

Batting 5th- .760- 5th in the AL

Batting 6th- .749- 4th in the AL

 

Your lineup is being carried by 1, 3, 4, 5. Your 2 slot is hitting well enough, but not compared to peers. That being said, the guy occupying it with regularity now has an OPS over .900. No moves to be made. 1-5, you have guys in your lineup OPS'ing at least .849 or higher, with 4 of those guys above .900. The 6 spot at 4th in the AL is more an indictment on the rest of the AL. 7-9 is a ghost town.

 

You're assuming the bottom of the order will repeat what they did in the first 10 weeks.

 

How often does that happen?

 

Are you projecting Sanchez to end up under .750?

 

How about projecting Stanton to end up 80 points below his career OPS?

 

Neil Walker at .566?

 

Gray, Tanaka and German all to end up over 4.50?

 

You should, if you think the Sox bottom 3-4 hitters will repeat the first 10 weeks, instead of repeating 2017 numbers. Not that those were all that great anyways, but were much better than this year, so far.

 

[jacksonianmarch]

This is a circuitous argument that nobody seems to want to tackle. I point this out and you point to the Yankees. I’m not talking about the Yankees. Do I expect your catching position, your ramshackle 2b spot and JBJ to keep hitting like this? Maybe? Maybe they improve a little? Do I expect them to OPS .700+ the rest of the way? I don’t. Vasquez and Leon are at a prime defensive position. They’re not hitters. JBJ has looked terminally lost. Maybe he has a hot streak, but he’s looked as bad as I remember seeing any hitter. Holt is best when he doesn’t play every day. Nunez has been awful. You’ve got Devers in the 6 hole who may be coming out of it, but to this point has made your 6 spot a ghost as well. Your lineup lacks depth and when the big guys don’t hit, you don’t score.

[moonslav59]

This is a circuitous argument that nobody seems to want to tackle. I point this out and you point to the Yankees. I’m not talking about the Yankees. Do I expect your catching position, your ramshackle 2b spot and JBJ to keep hitting like this? Maybe? Maybe they improve a little? Do I expect them to OPS .700+ the rest of the way? I don’t. Vasquez and Leon are at a prime defensive position. They’re not hitters. JBJ has looked terminally lost. Maybe he has a hot streak, but he’s looked as bad as I remember seeing any hitter. Holt is best when he doesn’t play every day. Nunez has been awful. You’ve got Devers in the 6 hole who may be coming out of it, but to this point has made your 6 spot a ghost as well. Your lineup lacks depth and when the big guys don’t hit, you don’t score.

 

JBJ has looked lost at times, often long stretches, every season. Maybe he never gets hot. Maybe he does.

 

Vaz and Leon are middle of the pack over-all catchers. They are below average hitters, but they get the most out of the staff. They are not weak links.

 

2B has looked bad, and who knows if Nunez is hurt or just sucking. Holt has buffed up over the winter, so maybe he won't fade this year.

 

We may make a trade to beef up the bottom 3, but we may not need to.

 

I brought up the Yankee players who are struggling to make a point. I notice you did not answer. Of course you expect the players I listed to do better-- just as I expect our strugglers to turn things around- at least some of them.

[moonslav59]

Your lineup is being carried by 1, 3, 4, 5. Your 2 slot is hitting well enough, but not compared to peers. That being said, the guy occupying it with regularity now has an OPS over .900. No moves to be made. 1-5, you have guys in your lineup OPS'ing at least .849 or higher, with 4 of those guys above .900. The 6 spot at 4th in the AL is more an indictment on the rest of the AL. 7-9 is a ghost town.

 

You might be right about our 6 slot ranking, but although our 7-9 slots rank poorly, just how far are they from the mean or average OPS by slot?

 

7th slot: .603

AL mean: .672

AL avg: .680

 

8th slot: .562

AL mean: .611

AL avg: .657

 

9th slot: .671

AL mean: .617

AL avg: .620

 

6th slot: .756

AL mean: .711

AL avg: .711

 

I'm not defending a .597 OPS from our 7-9 slots, but I seriously doubt they hit near that over the rest of the season. It would be a serious dip from everyone's career numbers and last 2-3 year numbers.

 

.597 vs this...

 

2016-2018:

 

.749 JBJ

.732 Nunez (with BOS)

.718 Leon

.682 Holt

.645 Vaz

 

None were even close to .597.

 

 

.597 vs career OPS

 

.723 Nunez

.709 JBJ

.697 Holt

.658 Leon

.639 Vaz

 

I'm sorry, but I'm going with larger sample sizes as a predictor over a 10 week sample size. I'm not cherry-picking. I've always looked at the longer picture.

[Slasher9]

Yankees fans are f***ing dumb. Pitching (and D) gets parades not your 8 & 9 hitters

[Slasher9]

And the inconsistency at the bottom of your order will kill your team, especially if you have to gain the division in order to avoid playing a series with the Yankees having home field.

 

I f***ing LOVED what happened the last time the Red Sox played the Yankees when NY had Home field advantage. How about you???

[S5Dewey]

And the inconsistency at the bottom of your order will kill your team, especially if you have to gain the division in order to avoid playing a series with the Yankees having home field.

 

Look at these OPS's for a second

Batting 7th- .603- 13th in the AL

Batting 8th- .562- 14th in the AL

Batting 9th- .617- 8th in the AL

 

Do any of your guys remember Rey Ordonez? Mets SS who played insane defense but absolutely sucked with the bat? The aggregate OPS of your 7-9 is below Ordonez's career OPS. You are giving an inning away per turn of your lineup. And it isn't like you're killing it outside of your top 4.

 

Batting 1st- 1.054- first by .203

Batting 2nd- .764- 11th in the AL

Batting 3rd- .832- 5th in the AL

Batting 4th- .953- 2nd in the AL

Batting 5th- .760- 5th in the AL

Batting 6th- .749- 4th in the AL

 

Your lineup is being carried by 1, 3, 4, 5. Your 2 slot is hitting well enough, but not compared to peers. That being said, the guy occupying it with regularity now has an OPS over .900. No moves to be made. 1-5, you have guys in your lineup OPS'ing at least .849 or higher, with 4 of those guys above .900. The 6 spot at 4th in the AL is more an indictment on the rest of the AL. 7-9 is a ghost town.

 

It's a funny thing about inconsistency. It means that sometimes they hit and sometimes they don't. I'm saying that given our pitching staff they may not have to hit in order for the Sox to win, and just one hit from one of them might be the difference in a low scoring game.

Low scoring games between quality teams come down to pitching and which pitcher makes the mistakes. I like our staff. Not as much as I'd like the advantage YS gives the Yankees if I were a Yankees fan, but I like them.

 

My point - which you chose to ignore - was that the Yankees are going to beat in Yankee Stadium". But thanks for your "concern".

Edited June 22, 2018 by S5Dewey

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ has looked lost at times, often long stretches, every season. Maybe he never gets hot. Maybe he does.

 

Vaz and Leon are middle of the pack over-all catchers. They are below average hitters, but they get the most out of the staff. They are not weak links.

 

2B has looked bad, and who knows if Nunez is hurt or just sucking. Holt has buffed up over the winter, so maybe he won't fade this year.

 

We may make a trade to beef up the bottom 3, but we may not need to.

 

I brought up the Yankee players who are struggling to make a point. I notice you did not answer. Of course you expect the players I listed to do better-- just as I expect our strugglers to turn things around- at least some of them.

 

I expect and all star catcher and an MVP to play like their track record suggests. JBJ doesn’t have nearly the offensive prowess of either

[S5Dewey]

Gloat -T-ing

[Bellhorn04]

We have a 50-26 record, tied for the second-best record in baseball. Normally a team in that position wouldn't be subject to as much criticism and analysis as this 2018 Red Sox team is.

 

But of course the catch is, we're behind the Yankees, and if we end the season that way we have to play a damn Wild Card game. That changes the way everything is being looked at.

[Maxbialystock]

Yankees, Astros, and Sox are the three best in the AL in won-lost, run differential, and, amazingly, OPS (hitting) and ERA (pitching). Astros clearly have the best pitching, and right now the Yankees have the 2d best ERA by a small margin. I think our pitching will be better. But I do think the Yankees have the best hitting even though moonslav makes some good points about their issues.

 

So what it boils down to is you gotta play the games and we will see what happens. Speaking of which, ain't it great to say that in June? Ladies and gents, we got ourselves a horse race.

[jacksonianmarch]

It is fun. The play in game definitely changes the game a bit, especially if the top WC team has the 2nd best record in baseball. That being said, we both know on June 22 that the Sox and Yanks are making the playoffs which makes it somewhat anticlimactic.

[Maxbialystock]

It is fun. The play in game definitely changes the game a bit, especially if the top WC team has the 2nd best record in baseball. That being said, we both know on June 22 that the Sox and Yanks are making the playoffs which makes it somewhat anticlimactic.

 

The play in game changes things a lot and puts a premium on winning your division. I think four teams with one wild card was a better format because very often the wild card team had a better record than one or more of the division winners. This year, if Seattle keeps winning along with the Sox, a 5th team--the current format--would make sense.

[notin]

It's a funny thing about inconsistency. It means that sometimes they hit and sometimes they don't.

 

Finally, someone properly posts the definition of the word. "Consistency" isn't a good thing if you are consistently bad...

[moonslav59]

Yankees fans are f***ing dumb. Pitching (and D) gets parades not your 8 & 9 hitters

 

It's our weak spot, so Jacko attacks it.

 

I get that, but the disrespect shown towards our SP'ers is not logical.

 

He assumes our weak hitters will continue to be weak all season, but I guess he does not assume the Yankees' starting pitchers will continue to not be anywhere near how our starters have done and presumably should continue to do by his criteria of judging our weak hitters.

 

Here's a look at SP'er ERA- (adjusted ERA):

 

AL Ranking:

 

1. Wright (10)

5. Severino (54)

9. Sale (64)

19. Sabathia (79)

21. Porcello (80)

23. ERod (81)

27. Montgomery (27)

30. Price (89)

Yes, we have 5 starters in the top 30 with all being at 89 or lower.

 

53. Tanaka (110)

60. Gray (117)

65. German (122)

77. Pom (150)

 

 

I don't see Pom starting for us in the playoffs. I do think Gray and/or Tanaka are expected to be playoff starters.

 

Team numbers:

 

73 Astros

80 Guardians

83 Red Sox

90 Yankees

95 Angels

96 Twins

 

To be fair, the Yankee pen looks mightier:

 

68 Astros (1.05 WHIP)

68 Yankees (1.10 WHIP)

75 Red Sox (1.21 WHIP)

 

Overall:

71 Astros

80 Red Sox

82 Yankees

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yankees, Astros, and Sox are the three best in the AL in won-lost, run differential, and, amazingly, OPS (hitting) and ERA (pitching). Astros clearly have the best pitching, and right now the Yankees have the 2d best ERA by a small margin. I think our pitching will be better. But I do think the Yankees have the best hitting even though moonslav makes some good points about their issues.

 

So what it boils down to is you gotta play the games and we will see what happens. Speaking of which, ain't it great to say that in June? Ladies and gents, we got ourselves a horse race.

 

ERA- is a better stat than just plain old ERA.

 

We edge the Yanks in ERA-, but our starters have been much better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka has a rough spot every year. He had his early. Gray has been dominant this month. Tanaka has a middling year last year and was lights out in the playoffs.

 

Btw, I find it funny you use Wright’s ERA-. He’s thrown 3 starts

[moonslav59]

Tanaka has a rough spot every year. He had his early. Gray has been dominant this month. Tanaka has a middling year last year and was lights out in the playoffs.

 

Btw, I find it funny you use Wright’s ERA-. He’s thrown 3 starts

 

I find it funny you explain away Tanaka's troubles as "rough spot every year", but you fail to recognize JBJ's history as being very similar in those terms.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tanaka has also been slightly worse than average when comparing ERA-. JBJ has been far worse than average. It’s comparing apples and watermelons