A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Station 13]

Runs scoring is something we don't have to be concern about. How the team holds up depends on health now.

[Station 13]

Updated Sox OPS

1.101 Betts

1.042 JD

.905 Moreland

.882 Beni

.854 Bogey

.787 Holt

.717 Devers

.657 Leon

.649 Nunez

.626 JBJ

.580 Vaz

.404 Swihart

 

JBJ was at .563 before the game on June 24th! It just took 4 games to go up 53 points.

 

He was at .502 on May 19th.

 

 

 

JBJ has look good. He isn't whiffing on 3 straight pitches down the middle like he was earlier.

[Slasher9]

Don't look now, but the Sox now have the best offense in terms of runs scored per game.

 

Sox: 5.21

Astros: 5.20

Yanks: 5.10

but jacksonianmarch says our lineup sucks after JD. how can we be the leading run scoring offense?!?!?

he's a "doctor". surely he is right????

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know who the three stooges are, but our pen will be fine. Herrera is not the only reliever who was available for trade. Dombrowski is sure to add a reliever before the deadline.

 

STORK'S 'three stooges' are Kelly, Barnes and Hembree. He's been razzing us about them since the get-go. He razzed DD for not re-signing Addison Reed, who is not looking that great now.

 

These are but some of the reasons I keep calling STORK an idiot.

[Kimmi]

Runs scoring is something we don't have to be concern about. How the team holds up depends on health now.

 

I completely agree.

 

I am not concerned about our team whatsoever, provided they stay healthy.

[Kimmi]

but jacksonianmarch says our lineup sucks after JD. how can we be the leading run scoring offense?!?!?

he's a "doctor". surely he is right????

 

Jacko is trying to convince himself that he doesn't have to worry about the Red Sox.

 

Obviously, he's not doing a very good job.

[Kimmi]

STORK'S 'three stooges' are Kelly, Barnes and Hembree. He's been razzing us about them since the get-go. He razzed DD for not re-signing Addison Reed, who is not looking that great now.

 

These are but some of the reasons I keep calling STORK an idiot.

 

I hear you Bell.

 

Thanks for the clarification on the three stooges.

[moonslav59]

While I don't have a ton of confidence or faith in Kelly, Barnes and Hembree, they've gotten the job done for almost a year and a half now.

 

In terms of WAR, not a stat I like all that much for RP'ers, here's how our RP'ers place in WAR since the start of 2017 (90+ IP):

 

2. Kimbrel 4.1

20. Barnes 1.9

38. Kelly 1.2

46. Hembree 0.9

 

If you figure there are 30 teams in MLB, each team should have 1.5 in the top 46. We have 4, including each and every one of the 3 stooges.

 

That being said, I'd love for us to pick up an excellent 8th inning guy, so we can turn these 3 into 6th and 7th inning pitchers. I'm not sure we have the budget space and pieces to trade to make that happen, but as of right now, I'd say that is our Highest need to upgrade position.

 

One stat I like to use to place value on RP'ers is WHIP.

 

1. Kimbrel 0.74

25. Kelly 1.15

27. Barnes 1.17 (3 in the top 30 is very nice)

63. Hembree 1.38

 

How about xFIP-?

1. Kimbrel 45

9. Barnes 71 (WOW!)

27. Hembree 87

45. Kelly 94

Again, 4 in the top 45 but 2 in the top 10!

 

Edited June 29, 2018 by moonslav59

[MADSTORK]

STORK'S 'three stooges' are Kelly, Barnes and Hembree. He's been razzing us about them since the get-go. He razzed DD for not re-signing Addison Reed, who is not looking that great now.

 

These are but some of the reasons I keep calling STORK an idiot.

 

 

Mr. Idiot please!

 

Three Stooges = Hembree Kelly Barnes. Rid yourself of the inconsistency and give Buttrey a shot

[moonslav59]

Mr. Idiot please!

 

Three Stooges = Hembree Kelly Barnes. Rid yourself of the inconsistency and give Buttrey a shot

 

If the 3 stooges are all in the top 45 RP'ers in MLB, they must be more consistent than most teams have after their closer.

 

Sure, none of these 3 are very consistent, but how many RP'ers in MLB are viewed as consistent? These 3 are among the best that are not considered "consistent".

 

Buttrey? Really?

 

Are you mad?

[moonslav59]

OPS over last 14 days

 

1.133 Leon

1.053 JD

.967 JBJ

.947 Moreland

.909 Nunez

.874 Devers

Notice how many of these bat in the 7-9 slots.

 

.849 Betts

.841 Bogey

.769 Vaz

.681 Holt

.604 Beni

.333 Swihart

 

[Jack Flap]

Rid yourself of the inconsistency and give Buttrey a shot

 

I'm not trying to pile on here, but this sentence kind of made me laugh. I don't disagree with Buttrey getting a shot, but what on Big Papi's green earth makes you think he will be any more consistent than the "three stooges" you just named?

 

The grass is always greener, I guess...

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to pile on here, but this sentence kind of made me laugh. I don't disagree with Buttrey getting a shot, but what on Big Papi's green earth makes you think he will be any more consistent than the "three stooges" you just named?

 

The grass is always greener, I guess...

 

I can see the "try anything" philosophy, if things were going bad for the 3, but they've been better than most 6-8 innings RP'ers in MLB.

 

I do wish we had a more solid 8th inning/spot closer pitcher, but certainly Buttrey is not that guy for 2018. At best, we'd likely just be adding another semi-consistent 6-8 inning guy.

[Spudboy]

I'll say this about Bell: He has a tremendous command of the obvious.

 

I love Bells way of phrasing things.

 

He gets right to the point without any fluff.

 

He prefaces each "You're an idiot" with a reminder of just why the guy is an idiot.

 

This is highly skilled communication skills at work!

[Spudboy]

Don't look now, but the Sox now have the best offense in terms of runs scored per game.

 

Sox: 5.21

Astros: 5.20

Yanks: 5.10

 

And you scoffed at me when I said it would be nice to see the Sox score 5-6 runs per game.

[Kimmi]

And you scoffed at me when I said it would be nice to see the Sox score 5-6 runs per game.

 

What? You'll have to refresh my memory on that.

 

I have always been 100% on board with this offense, even before we signed Martinez.

[Spudboy]

What? You'll have to refresh my memory on that.

 

I have always been 100% on board with this offense, even before we signed Martinez.

 

Just messing with you.

 

At one point a while back I suggested that I would like to see the Sox score 5-6 or 5.5-6 run a game. You came back with "That would be xxx bazillion runs in a season!" or something like that.

 

Well, it sure is cool to see over 5 runs a game. It makes winning a lot more probable as I see it.

[moonslav59]

Our pitching has done pretty well as well....

 

Last 28 days Starter ERA

 

1.29 Sale

2.99 Price

3.48 Porcello

3.80 ERod

4.13 Wright

 

0.00 Haley

2.19 Johnson

3.00 Velazquez

 

0.90 Workman

0.93 Hembree

2.16 Kimbrel

3.38 Barnes

5.40 Kelly

[moonslav59]

Summer 7-9 Slot Update:

 

Oh for 9 tonight with a HBP.

 

Sox

0-9 (6/29)

4-9 (6/28)

6-12 (6/27)

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

31-88 (.352)

 

Yanks

3-11 (6/29)

0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot)

1-12 (6/26)

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

9-86 (.105)

[Maxbialystock]

Our pitching has done pretty well as well....

 

Last 28 days Starter ERA

 

1.29 Sale

2.99 Price

3.48 Porcello

3.80 ERod

4.13 Wright

 

0.00 Haley

2.19 Johnson

3.00 Velazquez

 

0.90 Workman

0.93 Hembree

2.16 Kimbrel

3.38 Barnes

5.40 Kelly

 

Ahem. Not so fast. Wright's now on the DL, and his last game was a stinker--10 runs as I recall. ERod stunk last night and continues to over-rely on his fast ball first and cut fast ball second. He has no curve or slider, and his changeup seems to have disappeared. He is most effective when he keeps the ball mostly low, but apparently can't do that consistently.

 

Right now I would say the Sox have no better than the 3d best staff in the AL. The Astros ERA is under 3, which is ridiculous. We should be better than the Yankees, but aren't. Their rotation is about as good as ours--I hate saying that given that we should have the better of them here--and their bullpen is clearly better.

[Maxbialystock]

Summer 7-9 Slot Update:

 

Oh for 9 tonight with a HBP.

 

Sox

0-9 (6/29)

4-9 (6/28)

6-12 (6/27)

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

31-88 (.352)

 

Yanks

3-11 (6/29)

0-8 (6/27 includes pitcher slot)

1-12 (6/26)

1-12 (6/25)

2-15 (6/24)

1-9 (6/23)

1-9 (6/22)

0-10 (6/21)

9-86 (.105)

 

No quarrel with saying our lineup is pretty good--last night notwithstanding. Actually, I thought last night was a clinic in how to pitch effectively with a lot of movement and command. Sabathia was masterful. ERod was just getting a workout--throwing, not pitching.

[Kimmi]

No quarrel with saying our lineup is pretty good--last night notwithstanding. Actually, I thought last night was a clinic in how to pitch effectively with a lot of movement and command. Sabathia was masterful. ERod was just getting a workout--throwing, not pitching.

 

I was reading this morning about ERod's use of his changeup last night, or lack thereof. Statcast credited ERod with just 2 changeups in 84 pitches, while Brooks credited him with just 7 changeups in 95 pitches. There's a little discrepancy there, but there also seems to be a little confusion on whether some of his changeups were classified as two seamers.

 

The real issue seems to be not in what type of pitch the pitch was classified as, but in the lack of speed differential between his supposed changeup and his fastball. His changeups were being clocked at 89-90 mph, resulting in very few bad swings and misses, according to Cora.

 

So, something is going on there with his changeup.

[moonslav59]

Ahem. Not so fast. Wright's now on the DL, and his last game was a stinker--10 runs as I recall. ERod stunk last night and continues to over-rely on his fast ball first and cut fast ball second. He has no curve or slider, and his changeup seems to have disappeared. He is most effective when he keeps the ball mostly low, but apparently can't do that consistently.

 

Right now I would say the Sox have no better than the 3d best staff in the AL. The Astros ERA is under 3, which is ridiculous. We should be better than the Yankees, but aren't. Their rotation is about as good as ours--I hate saying that given that we should have the better of them here--and their bullpen is clearly better.

 

So, because Wright's last game was horrible, it should hold more weight?

 

Yes, he's on the DL, but his replacements did even better, so the whole "not so fast" argument based on one game sample sizes should actually make us look better- not worse (except for ERod after last night's game).

[Spudboy]

I was reading this morning about ERod's use of his changeup last night, or lack thereof. Statcast credited ERod with just 2 changeups in 84 pitches, while Brooks credited him with just 7 changeups in 95 pitches. There's a little discrepancy there, but there also seems to be a little confusion on whether some of his changeups were classified as two seamers.

 

The real issue seems to be not in what type of pitch the pitch was classified as, but in the lack of speed differential between his supposed changeup and his fastball. His changeups were being clocked at 89-90 mph, resulting in very few bad swings and misses, according to Cora.

 

So, something is going on there with his changeup.

 

He is a dope like Buch. He learns, he forgets.

[Maxbialystock]

I was reading this morning about ERod's use of his changeup last night, or lack thereof. Statcast credited ERod with just 2 changeups in 84 pitches, while Brooks credited him with just 7 changeups in 95 pitches. There's a little discrepancy there, but there also seems to be a little confusion on whether some of his changeups were classified as two seamers.

 

The real issue seems to be not in what type of pitch the pitch was classified as, but in the lack of speed differential between his supposed changeup and his fastball. His changeups were being clocked at 89-90 mph, resulting in very few bad swings and misses, according to Cora.

 

So, something is going on there with his changeup.

 

I thought the same thing during the game. I saw at least two pitches move right to left, but not by much. In earlier games he had a pretty good change up.

[Maxbialystock]

So, because Wright's last game was horrible, it should hold more weight?

 

Yes, he's on the DL, but his replacements did even better, so the whole "not so fast" argument based on one game sample sizes should actually make us look better- not worse (except for ERod after last night's game).

 

Perhaps. I hope you are right. I’m worried.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps. I hope you are right. I’m worried.

 

The thing about the playoffs, you only need 3-4 really good starters and your pen is usually more rested with the days off being more often.

 

If our big three are healthy and rested, Sale, Price & Porcello, I'm okay with throwing ERod out there in a game 4 up 2 to 1. If we're down 2 to 1, we'd probably go with our game 1 starter again. I doubt we'll need Wright, but he could be a nice option by October. He'll be rested, it will be cooler, and he could also be used from the pen, if needed.

 

Our pen has looked shaky at times, but this is the second year in a row, they've done very well. Maybe they are not over performing. Maybe they are just better than we think. Workman has really stepped it up and could give us what we hoped Smith or Thornburg were going to give us.

 

Yes, I'm concerned about a few things, but so are the Yanks and 'stros. That's why they're looking at making trades.

[vegasbob]

IMO, the Sox will still consider getting a vet starter . One factor will be the strength of Wright's knee situation. It may be intermittent or like Pedey's , chronic problem all year. Johnson and Velazquez did do well for limited innings vs the Angels who sucked pretty much the last several games, until they met the Orioles last night.

 

Assuming that the last 3 games (at Fenway) with NYY are critical to the AL East win, Cora will have fun juggling the last two weeks to get Sale, Price and Porcello lined up just right to win it. I wouldn't trust Erod, Wright , Johnson or Velazquez with one of those games if they were critical.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, the Sox will still consider getting a vet starter . One factor will be the strength of Wright's knee situation. It may be intermittent or like Pedey's , chronic problem all year. Johnson and Velazquez did do well for limited innings vs the Angels who sucked pretty much the last several games, until they met the Orioles last night.

 

Assuming that the last 3 games (at Fenway) with NYY are critical to the AL East win, Cora will have fun juggling the last two weeks to get Sale, Price and Porcello lined up just right to win it. I wouldn't trust Erod, Wright , Johnson or Velazquez with one of those games if they were critical.

 

There's still the possibility of Pomeranz coming back too.

 

In any event I'm sure DD will do what's best. You can see with the pickups of Phillips and Pearce he's looking to do what's necessary to plug holes.

[notin]

There's still the possibility of Pomeranz coming back too.

 

In any event I'm sure DD will do what's best. You can see with the pickups of Phillips and Pearce he's looking to do what's necessary to plug holes.

 

If we know nothing else about Dombrowski, we at least know if he has a prospect with any trade value, he WILL trade him...