A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

Well put. I've been there. At least the rug isn't blue any more.

 

I've been there, too, and I didn't think it was as awful as everyone says/thinks it is.

[a700hitter]

I've been there, too, and I didn't think it was as awful as everyone says/thinks it is.

Me too. It may be awful for the players with the catwalks etc and the carpet, but it isn't a terrible place to view a game. And plenty of good cheap seats are always available.

[moonslav59]

Me too. It may be awful for the players with the catwalks etc and the carpet, but it isn't a terrible place to view a game. And plenty of good cheap seats are always available.

 

I showed up outside the stadium opening day, the year we started the year with the closer by committee plan. I got great seats for super cheap. I enjoyed the atmosphere.

 

I was driving to my sisters in Chapel Hill, NC after the game, so I left in the middle of the ninth inning- to beat traffic!

 

I got seriously depressed listening to the pen meltdown on the radio heading out of TB.

 

Some memories would be better forgotten, or as Lowell George would sing, "So I light another cigarette and try to remember to forget."

Edited July 1, 2018 by moonslav59

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I didn't want to start a new thread to post this, but the AL West better keep an eye on Oakland. Mainly Seattle. The A's, as we know, have a very fine team. Also, the Rays have become giant killers as of late. The Rays are just in the wrong division. Edited July 1, 2018 by SPLENDIDSPLINTER

[moonslav59]

I didn't want to start a new thread to post this, but the AL West better keep an eye on Oakland. Mainly Seattle. The A's, as we know, have a very fine team. Also, the Rays have become giant killers as of late. The Rays are just in the wrong division.

 

The Rays and A's have largely "over performed" over the years. Managers have come and gone, and the Rays even has a shake-up at the GM position, but they just keep surprising.

 

[oldtimer]

The Rays and A's have largely "over performed" over the years. Managers have come and gone, and the Rays even has a shake-up at the GM position, but they just keep surprising.

 

 

They always seem to develop pitching. Wish we could do as well with pitcher development.

[Spudboy]

Randomness at work!

 

Exactly!

[Spudboy]

In this home stand against NYY, HOU & WSH, the Rays have allowed 12 runs in 8 games, and 6 of those were in one game. In their last 10 at the Trop they've allowed 13 runs.

 

That is pretty f***ed up.

 

Maybe they can mount a charge and overtake the Yankees for 2nd place for the year!

[Spudboy]

Well put. I've been there. At least the rug isn't blue any more.

 

That field looks pretty nice for the first time in many years.

 

I wonder how the players like it vs the old surface?

[Spudboy]

The Rays and A's have largely "over performed" over the years. Managers have come and gone, and the Rays even has a shake-up at the GM position, but they just keep surprising.

 

 

I am not surprised at all.

 

If one believe in the randomness of baseball what I see is just teams playing well for a change when they seem to suck otherwise.

[harmony]

I didn't want to start a new thread to post this, but the AL West better keep an eye on Oakland. Mainly Seattle. The A's, as we know, have a very fine team. Also, the Rays have become giant killers as of late. The Rays are just in the wrong division.

The Tampa Bay Rays have played in the less competitive division so far this year.

 

The AL East has a cumulative record of 212-198 (.517) while the AL West has a cumulative record of 235-186 (.545).

 

The AL East has a 53-58 (.477) record this year in head-to-head competition against the AL West. The disparity is magnified by the fact the AL West clubs have played 27 games against the Red Sox, 22 games against the Yankees, 24 games against the Rays and 23 against the Blue Jays, but only 15 games so far against the woeful Orioles, who to date are winless* in 15 tries against AL West teams.

 

The Rays and A's indeed have good clubs but face formidable tasks to advance to the postseason. In race for the second Wild Card slot, the Mariners are seven games up on the Athletics, 10 games up on the Angels and 11 games up on the Rays. In fact the Mariners trail the Astros by only 1-1/2 games, the Yankees by two games and the Red Sox by three games.

 

FanGraphs currently gives the Mariners an 83.4 percent, the Athletics a 9.4 percent and the Rays a 0.7 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

FiveThirtyEight has Seattle at 77 percent, Oakland at 7 percent and Tampa Bay at 12 percent:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/

 

Of course anything can happen with nearly half the season remaining.

 

* the Orioles lead the Angels 8-1 in the seventh inning as I write.

Edited July 1, 2018 by harmony

[Maxbialystock]

I didn't want to start a new thread to post this, but the AL West better keep an eye on Oakland. Mainly Seattle. The A's, as we know, have a very fine team. Also, the Rays have become giant killers as of late. The Rays are just in the wrong division.

 

This is the perfect thread for that comment, and I agree the A's and Rays can be a problem for us. Besides, the no-nothings mistakenly believe that 15 games back means you can't win period, and statistically that is just BS. Out of 15 AL teams only the Orioles, White Sox, and Royals win less that 40% of their games. 8 of 15 AL teams are playing at a .500 clip or better. So you point is a great reminder not to take teams other than the Yankees, Astros, and Mariners for granted.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I didn't want to start a new thread to post this, but the AL West better keep an eye on Oakland. Mainly Seattle. The A's, as we know, have a very fine team. Also, the Rays have become giant killers as of late. The Rays are just in the wrong division.

 

 

Btw, the Rays are leading the Astros 3-1 in the bottom of the 8th. That's good news for both the M's and the A's.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Rays win 3-2 and take 3 of 4 from Houston. Cash is doing a great job with that team.

[OH FOY]

Rays got a young staff. Always seem to have young staff.

[moonslav59]

They always seem to develop pitching. Wish we could do as well with pitcher development.

 

Maybe, instead of signing pitchers until the cows come home, we should just steal the ray's pitcher development people away from their organization by paying them what we pay Castillo.

 

Money better spent.

[OH FOY]

Snell is pitching lights out lately. He should be an All-Star.

[OH FOY]

Rays also got this kid in Durham, Honeywell who is considered one of the best Prospects in the Minors. Unfortunately he is out for season. UCL tear. Edited July 1, 2018 by OH FOY!

[OH FOY]

Wasn't Castillo signed by Ben Cherrington? 2014 I believe. And I agree, money should be spent on Development on Pitching. Then guys you will never use. Edited July 1, 2018 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

Rays also got this kid in Durham, Honeywell who is considered one of the best Prospects in the Minors. Unfortunately he is out for season. UCL tear.

The Tampa Bay Rays also have righthander Jose DeLeon, who entered the 2017 season as a Baseball America Top 30 prospect but who also is out this year following Tommy John surgery in March.

[moonslav59]

Rays also got this kid in Durham, Honeywell who is considered one of the best Prospects in the Minors. Unfortunately he is out for season. UCL tear.

 

Then , according to some, he has no value (like Groome).

[harmony]

Then , according to some, he has no value (like Groome).

Brent Honeywell, unlike Jay Groome, made 24 starts at the Triple A level in 2017 en route to prospect rankings of No. 14, No. 12 and No. 11 by Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus entering this season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=honeyw002bre

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS since last 14 days:

 

1.349 Leon

1.250 Pearce

1.094 JD

1.057 Betts

1.015 Devers

 

.889 Moreland

.851 JBJ

.804 Holt

 

.748 Bogey

.739 Vaz

.733 Nunez

 

.591 Beni

.400 Swihart

 

Small samples size but very impressive.

 

We have 8 players over 1.091 over the last 7 days:

 

Leon, Devers, Pearce, Betts, Vaz, Holt, JD & JBJ.

 

Bogey is at .812.

[moonslav59]

Brent Honeywell, unlike Jay Groome, made 24 starts at the Triple A level in 2017 en route to prospect rankings of No. 14, No. 12 and No. 11 by Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus entering this season.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=honeyw002bre

 

So, Groome had no value before the injury?

 

I'm getting confused by all the goalpost moving.

[vegasbob]

Different direction---If and when Pomeranz returns (before Wright) does he go in as a starter or do you trust his stuff enough to try relief ? If Wright is still out, I guess Drew will start and see what he has. If Wright is also ready, who goes as a starter ? My guess is that Cora would start Pomeranz until he fails again and puts Wright in the pen. But, that may not be the right answer

[vegasbob]

John Lamb, 27 , of the Angels , who got pounded by the Sox last week is now out for his second career TJ surgery, being the 4th Angel pitcher to have the procedure this year. With guys like Groome and Honeywell plus several others, it seems that few young guys make it through college/minors and into MLB without shredding the UCL. The new badge of courage on the mound.

[vegasbob]

Maybe, instead of signing pitchers until the cows come home, we should just steal the ray's pitcher development people away from their organization by paying them what we pay Castillo.

 

Money better spent.

 

One of three things will happen with Castillo , if he can hit well enough at AAA: 1. The Sox will need him in lieu of one of Beni, JBJr, Betts due to injury, trade or FA down the road ; 2. His contract balance will be relatively small enough for a rich club (LAD, SF ) to pick him up ; 3. He becomes trivia question as in who was the highest paid guy (total $$$) to play the fewest MLB games.

[harmony]

So, Groome had no value before the injury?

 

I'm getting confused by all the goalpost moving.

I addressed that issue on Saturday:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18724-Who-Should-the-Red-Sox-Trade-For?p=1157694#post1157694

[jacksonianmarch]

Then , according to some, he has no value (like Groome).

 

That's just stupid. I know you're digging at me. Groome has done absolutely nothing in the minors. He has burned 3 years of control and will soon have to be added to the 40 man. I know he will be added, but he is likely to debut in low A at the halfway point next year. He isn't going to see upper level starts until 2020 or 2021 at the earliest. Honeywell dominated AAA and AA last season and came in as the most likely rookie pitcher to have an impact in the AL beyond Ohtani. Huge difference between he and Groome.

[moonslav59]

That's just stupid. I know you're digging at me. Groome has done absolutely nothing in the minors. He has burned 3 years of control and will soon have to be added to the 40 man. I know he will be added, but he is likely to debut in low A at the halfway point next year. He isn't going to see upper level starts until 2020 or 2021 at the earliest. Honeywell dominated AAA and AA last season and came in as the most likely rookie pitcher to have an impact in the AL beyond Ohtani. Huge difference between he and Groome.

 

Groome was rated pretty highly before the injury, despite not putting up great numbers when he was healthy.

 

You claimed he has NO VALUE now, so I can only assume it was because of the injury.

 

Look, I never said Groome had high value, especially after the injury, but you and I both know,every team would take him into their system for free, which is basically what value you assigned to him.

 

Yes, it was a veiled dig at you. Even when I called you out for your "no value" statement, you never clarified it. Are you still saying he has absolutely no value at all?

 

BTW, Groome reaches rule 5 in December of 2020, so there is ample time for him to return to strength and earn his way on the roster, or not.

 

http://soxprospects.com/rule5.htm