A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[moonslav59]

I knew you were going to say something like that after today's game.

 

I've been waiting far too long to be able to say it.

 

I hope it's not just a tease.

[Nick]

For the last two games his fastball has reached 100 mph. His pitches overall tend to be anywhere from 80 to 100. Throws his slider at the speed he wants. I'm not sure I understand the part about ramping up slowly though. He is certainly throwing the ball harder than we have seen him throw that is for sure. Someone suggested a few days ago on a thread here that if the playoffs started today that they might start E-Rod over Chris Sale. Anyone remember that? I'm fairly sure that it was a statistically based assumption due to the fact that in games started E-Rod has a better record and that the team tends to support him with more runs. Personally, I consider that a ridiculous assumption. Chris Sale is an ace, a true gamer. Your ace gets the ball as often and when he wants it as long as he stays healthy. I realize that some here think that his body is not built for the long haul. My retort to that is that we are all built differently and when was the last time Chris Sale was injured. Talk to him yes of course so that you know when and if he needs breaks. He is a professional and I think he knows what he can and cannot do. Red Sox fans I think just need to sit back and enjoy what we have in one of the best pitchers in the game today. Now since I am being realistic, we also have 2 of the very best hitters in the game playing for us in JD and Mookie. Enjoy them while we have them.

 

Not just for Sale but for all starters. Early conversation was not to push/over work them during Spring Training. That is what I meant.

 

Sale is still much better pitcher than E Rod.

[Kimmi]

We are now 13-2 in ERod starts. We were bound to lose one more eventually.

 

Let's get 'em today!

 

 

From Red Sox Stats about last night's game:

 

The Sox were 1 for 7 with a single on hard hit balls tonight, the Mariners were 7 for 17 on weak hit balls. One of those nights.

 

Baseball is indeed a funny game.

[Kimmi]

That we did and we finally supported Sale. Best of all JBJ had 3 hits and it looked like he had his swing more under control. Lets hope this is the start of a more effective offensive showing from him. We don't need much offense from him, just not an automatic out.

 

JBJ has been hitting the ball hard for a while now with nothing to show for it before today.

 

I think good things are coming for him offensively.

[Kimmi]

That was a safe prediction because it's true. JBJ's been hitting the ball well lately anyway. Kimmie pointed out that .079 BAPIP of JBJ's a couple of days ago. It's just that today the balls weren't hit right at someone.

 

Sometimes all you need is one break to turn things around. The liner of the 1B glove early in the game may have been that break.

 

Not only his BABIP, but he leads MLB in hard hit balls rate for the month of June:

 

Hard Hit Rate in June

1 66.7% Jackie Bradley

2 65.9% Christian Yelich

3 62.0% Justin Upton

5 60.0% Aaron Judge

[moonslav59]

Not only his BABIP, but he leads MLB in hard hit balls rate for the month of June:

 

Hard Hit Rate in June

1 66.7% Jackie Bradley

2 65.9% Christian Yelich

3 62.0% Justin Upton

5 60.0% Aaron Judge

 

From the other view....

 

Last 30 days

 

161 players with 90+ PAs/Lowest Soft Hit%

1. Freeman 3.7%

3. Trout 5.6%

4. Seager 6.3%

6. Moncada 7.3%

9. Votto 7.9%

 

16. JBJ 9.8% (Lowest on the Sox)

35. JMart 12%

70. Beni 15.4%

88. Moreland 16.7%

89. Bogey16.9%

 

 

[Jasonbay44]

That was a safe prediction because it's true. JBJ's been hitting the ball well lately anyway. Kimmie pointed out that .079 BAPIP of JBJ's a couple of days ago. It's just that today the balls weren't hit right at someone.

 

Sometimes all you need is one break to turn things around. The liner of the 1B glove early in the game may have been that break.

 

I've been watching a lot of his AB's lately and he's had just horrendous luck. He's been hitting the ball very hard, but every time he either gets robbed, or at its right at someone. I'm still confident in JBJ.

[a700hitter]

I've been watching a lot of his AB's lately and he's had just horrendous luck. He's been hitting the ball very hard, but every time he either gets robbed, or at its right at someone. I'm still confident in JBJ.

I am confident that he will not finish the season hitting .178, but he is still going to stink.

[Larry Cook]

It would be nice to have a right handed hitting outfielder that mashes lefties, but not if it means Bradley is not on the team.

[Maxbialystock]

Not just for Sale but for all starters. Early conversation was not to push/over work them during Spring Training. That is what I meant.

 

Sale is still much better pitcher than E Rod.

 

Of course he's better--miles better. The biggest difference to me is attitude--not just in the games but in preparing to pitch throughout the season and throughout the year. I think deep down ERod is lazy. He actually has a pretty good repertoire and, when it's right, the best changeup on the team. But he doesn't seem to bring the same pitches to every game, he seems to be gaining weight, he's lazy about covering 1B, etc, etc.

[Slasher9]

JBJ's hits were all line drives.

 

I'm hoping this is the start of the long awaited hot streak, and that maybe he turns it into a longer one than he's ever had.

he's been hitting the ball very hard for awhile now. unfortunately they have been outs for the most part. his babip is crazy low for the exit velo.

[Slasher9]

That was a safe prediction because it's true. JBJ's been hitting the ball well lately anyway. Kimmie pointed out that .079 BAPIP of JBJ's a couple of days ago. It's just that today the balls weren't hit right at someone.

 

Sometimes all you need is one break to turn things around. The liner of the 1B glove early in the game may have been that break.

 

thats a BINGO

[Bellhorn04]

It would be nice to have a right handed hitting outfielder that mashes lefties, but not if it means Bradley is not on the team.

 

Good post Larry.

[OH FOY]

Angels have to go to KC today for a make-up game. Good thing about this is Tyler Skaggs is Pitching tonight, we miss him.

[Kimmi]

From the other view....

 

Last 30 days

 

161 players with 90+ PAs/Lowest Soft Hit%

1. Freeman 3.7%

3. Trout 5.6%

4. Seager 6.3%

6. Moncada 7.3%

9. Votto 7.9%

 

16. JBJ 9.8% (Lowest on the Sox)

35. JMart 12%

70. Beni 15.4%

88. Moreland 16.7%

89. Bogey16.9%

 

 

Good stuff. So JBJ has the highest hard hit rate and one of the lowest soft hit rates in baseball, along with the unsustainable BABIP.

 

Something has to give soon.

[notin]

Angels have to go to KC today for a make-up game. Good thing about this is Tyler Skaggs is Pitching tonight, we miss him.

 

We did pummel him for 6 runs is just over 4 innings last time we faced him.

 

Skaggs apparently has looked better since, but he also hasn't faced a team with a winning record since May 5...

[moonslav59]

Good stuff. So JBJ has the highest hard hit rate and one of the lowest soft hit rates in baseball, along with the unsustainable BABIP.

 

Something has to give soon.

 

Hopefully yesterday was the opening of the floodgate of hits.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I posted the numbers in response to a post that read: "Moncada is a butcher at second base from what I have seen."

 

I wonder how many of Yoan Moncada's 485 chances in the field the poster has observed.

 

The DRS and UZR systems reportedly track every play.

 

Without Moncada in the trade the SOX probably wouldn't have gotten Sale. In that regard Moncada was very productive for the SOX.

[a700hitter]

Without Moncada in the trade the SOX probably wouldn't have gotten Sale. In that regard Moncada was very productive for the SOX.

The organization made the highest and best use of Moncada by trading him for Sale. Edited June 25, 2018 by a700hitter

[Maxbialystock]

Ghe organization made the highest and best use of Moncada by trading him for Sale.

 

No doubt in my mind about that whatsoever. Sox badly needed someone like Sale and he has more than filled the bill, plus he is a real professional ballplayer. I can't remember another Sox pitcher better at covering 1B on grounders to the right side, and last night he dove for that bunt because he knew it was a hit if he didn't get it.

 

That's why I wonder how Pomeranz and ERod, to cite two examples, can watch Sale cover 1B and then do the exact opposite. The Fenway cops need to give both of them tickets for loitering around the mound.

 

Sale is just a pleasure to watch because he takes the game seriously--every aspect of of it.

[a700hitter]

No doubt in my mind about that whatsoever. Sox badly needed someone like Sale and he has more than filled the bill, plus he is a real professional ballplayer. I can't remember another Sox pitcher better at covering 1B on grounders to the right side, and last night he dove for that bunt because he knew it was a hit if he didn't get it.

 

That's why I wonder how Pomeranz and ERod, to cite two examples, can watch Sale cover 1B and then do the exact opposite. The Fenway cops need to give both of them tickets for loitering around the mound.

 

Sale is just a pleasure to watch because he takes the game seriously--every aspect of of it.

There are so many pitchers in the majors who stand like they are waiting for a bus when the ball is hit to the right side of the infield. It makes you shake your head.

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt in my mind about that whatsoever. Sox badly needed someone like Sale and he has more than filled the bill, plus he is a real professional ballplayer. I can't remember another Sox pitcher better at covering 1B on grounders to the right side, and last night he dove for that bunt because he knew it was a hit if he didn't get it.

 

That's why I wonder how Pomeranz and ERod, to cite two examples, can watch Sale cover 1B and then do the exact opposite. The Fenway cops need to give both of them tickets for loitering around the mound.

 

Sale is just a pleasure to watch because he takes the game seriously--every aspect of of it.

 

Good post.

[vegasbob]

Looking ahead at the end of June-July-Aug 1 schedule, a total of 29 games interrupted by the A-S break, the Sox have only 9 of those games against teams playing over .500 right now ( Yankees, Nationals , Phillies)

 

At 52-27 now, I would expect the Sox to be 70-38 minimum going into August 2. If they get on a roll it could be 74-34 an incredible 40 games over .500. in early August. The momentum (or lack of it) by late July will have bearing on DD's decisions to make moves. I still think he trust a play-in WC game to get this team over the top and a WS berth. A potential 100+ win team is rare enough, but I think he needs to go all out and win the season you are playing, not 2019, 2020 or 2021. Go for it with this team now.

 

So that could mean anything from a veteran starting pitcher, LH reliever, or 2Bman. It will also lead to the resolution of the Swihart role on this team.

[moonslav59]

Looking ahead at the end of June-July-Aug 1 schedule, a total of 29 games interrupted by the A-S break, the Sox have only 9 of those games against teams playing over .500 right now ( Yankees, Nationals , Phillies)

 

At 52-27 now, I would expect the Sox to be 70-38 minimum going into August 2. If they get on a roll it could be 74-34 an incredible 40 games over .500. in early August. The momentum (or lack of it) by late July will have bearing on DD's decisions to make moves. I still think he trust a play-in WC game to get this team over the top and a WS berth. A potential 100+ win team is rare enough, but I think he needs to go all out and win the season you are playing, not 2019, 2020 or 2021. Go for it with this team now.

 

So that could mean anything from a veteran starting pitcher, LH reliever, or 2Bman. It will also lead to the resolution of the Swihart role on this team.

 

Good post, but I don't see the need for a vet SP'er.

[Kimmi]

Without Moncada in the trade the SOX probably wouldn't have gotten Sale. In that regard Moncada was very productive for the SOX.

 

Thanks Ben!

[Emp9]

thats a BINGO

 

Lol!!! Just.. sigh... how dare you use that word. Hahaha

[vegasbob]

We did pummel him for 6 runs is just over 4 innings last time we faced him.

 

Skaggs apparently has looked better since, but he also hasn't faced a team with a winning record since May 5...

 

Angels in the midst of a 4-10 slide, and losing at KC today through 7, 1-0 Skaggs is worth missing in the Angels depleted rotation

[Nick]

The Fenway cops need to give both of them tickets for loitering around the mound. Maxbialystock

 

I live to read good lines written by our posters.....

[Nick]

Thanks Ben!

 

For once, Ben used $70M wisely.

[oldtimer]

Good post, but I don't see the need for a vet SP'er.

 

Neither do I. I see a role for a quality left handed reliever. A good quality right handed hitter (could be a 4th outfiellder) would be the next get, but if I could reduce the risk of not getting Pedroia back by getting a youngish second baseman who would be with us for a few years, I would pull the trigger on thar option. Whatever JBJ will give us this year, I don't see us replacing him until next season based on his total performance this year.We also will live with our catching staff although Swihart may be a first man out if we pick up new roster players.