Yanks v Sox, rivalry renewed

[notin]

Fangraphs also thinks Judge is going to turtle and barely reach an .800OPS. He was terrible from the ASB to the last week of August and still ended up with a .938OPS in the second half. The guy has superhuman strength and an incredible eye. I think the eye will come in handy to a ridiculous degree this season as umpires should start calling his actual strike zone

 

Steamer has him with a .886 OPS. ZiPS has a .916.

[jacksonianmarch]

Going to the pitchers...

 

1. Sale vs Severino. Sale has the track record and by all accounts had a career season last yr. Severino burst on the scene in 2015, but struggled in 16 before becoming an ace in 2017. Sale and Sevy finished 2 and 3 in the Cy Young. Sale had the better year, but ZIPS projects them both to be around the 5.5-5.7WAR mark for 2018. I think the likelihood is Sale outperforms Sevy with the potential that they are a wash.

 

2. Tanaka vs Price. The tale of the dominant veteran arms who were neither dominant or dependable last season. Price was coming off a durable, albeit career worst 2016 to develop a "tear in his elbow" and finish the year unable to start. Price had an alarming velocity dip in 2016, but rebounded to his prior levels in an injury filled year. If Price can sustain that velocity and stay healthy, then he could be 1A to Chris Sale's 1. There's also a strong likelihood that the elbow goes altogether and he needs it fixed. Heading to Tanaka, he hit 30 starts for the second year in a row, yet didn't reach 6IP per start for the first time in his career. This was due to a disastrous May where he pitched to a ridiculous 8.42ERA with 11HR in 31IP. After May, Tanaka dropped the percentage of his FB/sinker and increased the slider/splitter and returned to prior dominance with a 3.54ERA and a 1.05WHIP in the last 101.2IP. Tanaka set a career high in K/9IP last yr, up to 9.8K/9, yet the HR rate was insane at 1.77/9IP. After the adjustment, his HR rate dropped down to 1.24/9IP, which is around his career norm. Outside of an odd month, Tanaka has been remarkably consistent from 2016-2017. Durable, strong K rates, low walk rates, high HR rates, solid ERA's and WHIP's. My anticipation is that we will see a 30 start mid 3's ERA, 1.00-1.10WHIP with a high K rate again. Price has the upside to be better than that, but a bit more injury risk as his elbow issues aren't as remote as Tanaka's are. Also, Tanaka finished 2017 on fire and lit things up in the playoffs. I'd go Yankees here with upside to the sox. If Price is healthy and rediscovers his velo for good, he will outperform Tanaka. I think the likelihood is Tanaka outperforms Price but the potential is there for Price to be better should he regain his heat and his health

 

3. Pomeranz vs Gray. Pomeranz is your prototypical high performing short outing performer. Dominant numbers wrapped in a 5.4IP per start package. He displayed 30+ starts for 2 straight years as well leading to durability without length. Gray had been an ace with a lights out playoff history. Then 2016 hit and he was injured. He didn't fully recover until May of 2017. He returned as a better K pitcher than he displayed previously with his prototypical good but not great command. He posted a mid 3's ERA while reaching 6IP per start almost on the nose. At his peak, Gray was a 200+IP performer who could hold an ERA near 3 for a whole season. If Gray returns to that, he will be far better than Pomeranz, even if Pom is blowing people away in limited outings. The current Sonny Gray, though, is an interesting comp to Pomeranz. I think the likelihood is a wash as Sonny is moving to NYY and his HR rate already doubled after the deal. The potential is there for Gray to regain his Oakland form and really take off in this rotation as the #3.

 

4. Porcello vs Sabathia. This is another battle of durability vs effectiveness, although the roles were reversed. CC came up huge in the playoffs for NYY and had a resurgent season, which earned him another payday. CC seemed to wrestle one more year out of father time and even saw a resurgent fastball in 2017. Knee issues and a lights out pen caused CC to miss time and be pulled early in games by trigger happy Joe Girardi. They'll still have to handle him with kid gloves and don't discount the strong chance he ends up on the DL at some point in 2018, either due to a need for maintenance or a real issue. Porcello followed up a Cy Young season with a clunker. Yes, he reached 200IP, but his 4.65ERA was validated by the advanced metrics as not being a fluke. As bad as CC's HR rate was, Porcello had his beat by nearly 33%. Who knows who the real Porcello is. Is he the Cy Young contender who turned in an absolutely dominant 2016? Is he the guy who posted 2 seasons out of the last 3 with ERA's over 4.50? Looking at his history, Rick has posted ERA's over 4 in 6 out of his 9 seasons with one of the sub 4 seasons being 3.96 in 2009. One cannot discount the possibility that Rick is more an innings eater than a real effective starter. I think this one is an interesting wash and probably mostly dependent on CC. I think Rick posts a 4-4.5 ERA but stays healthy. CC could post another sub 4ERA, but he might miss half the season with knee issues.

 

5. Montgomery vs E-Rod. Right now, it is advantage Yankees since ERod is looking to miss a month, but the timeline might be moving up. Even when healthy, J-Mont posted a WAR in his rookie year that E-Rod never reached (2.7). E-Rod is more powerful, yet J-Mont has more command and a deeper arsenal. Both are left handed. I think ERod has the type of arsenal that could become ace-like, but his injury history and maddening inconsistency stand in the way of reaching that. Montgomery doesn't have that kind of ace like potential, but he projects as the safer and more reliable middle of the rotation pitcher that he already showed he could be. I think likelihood goes to NYY but upside is clearly in Boston's favor

 

So, of the 5, I have likelihoods going to Sale, Tanaka, and Montgomery with washes being Porcello-Sabathia and Pomeranz-Gray. The upsides, I have a wash with Sale-Severino, then decidedly going to Price, Gray, Porcello and ERod.

Edited March 1, 2018 by jacksonianmarch

[Youk Of The Nation]

I don't need nearly that many words or numbers to say "Yankees Suck". Brevity is the soul of wit.

[moonslav59]

fangraphs has....

 

5.4 Sale

4.9 Severino

 

3.6 Price

3.6 Tanaka

 

3.3 S Gray

2.5 Pomernaz

 

2.5 Porcello

2.1 Montgomery

 

0.9 ERod/0.7 Wright

1.6 CC Sabathia

 

Pen

NYY

2.2 Chapman

1.6 Robertson

1.2 Betances

1.1 Kahnle

0.9 C Green

0.2 Warren

0.1 Shreve & Gallegos

 

BOS

2.3 Kimbrel

0.8 Smith

0.7 Kelly

0.2 Barnes

0.1 Thornburg & Workman

 

C

3.4 Sanchez, 0.2 Romine, 0.1 Higashioka

1.4 Vazques & 0.6 Leon

 

1B

1.9 Byrd & 0.1 Austin

0.7 Moreland & 0.6 HRam

 

DH

2.8 JD Martinez & 0.1 HRam

1.5 Stanton, 0.6 Judge, 0.3 Gardner & 0.1 Sanchez

 

2B

2.3 Pedroia & 0.6 Nunez

0.5 Torres, 0.3 Wade, 0.1 Torreyes & Drury

 

3B

2.6 Devers, 0.3 Nunez

0.8 Drury, 0.6 Andujar

 

SS

3.4 Bogey & 0.2 Nunez

2.6 Gregorius, 0.1 Torreyes & Wade

 

LF

3.4 Stanton & 1.3 Gardner

2.5 Beni, 0.6 JDM, 0.2 Nunez

 

CF

3.2 JBJ & 0.4 Beni

2.4 Hicks, 0.3 Ellsbury

 

RF

5.6 Betts & 0.1 Nunez

3.8 Judge, 1.5 Stanton, 0.1 Frazier

 

Totals

6.4 Stanton

5.6 Betts

4.4 Judge

3.5 Sanchez

3.4 JDM

3.4 Bogey

3.2 JBJ

2.9 Beni

2.6 Devers

2.6 Didi

2.4 Hicks

2.3 Pedey

1.9 Bird

1.7 Gardner

1.4 Vaz

1.3 Nunez

1.0 Drury

0.7 Moreland

0.7 HRam

0.6 Leon

0.6 Andujar

0.5 Torres & Wade

0.4 Ellsbury

0.2 Torreyes & Romine

0.1 Frazier & Austin

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TylerD]

Didi vs Bogey. This one used to be closer, but Didi has become what Xander could have been. Didi has been clutch, hits for average, is probably our best contact hitter and has hit 20+ HR two years running. This is solidly in our favor unless Bogaerts remembers who he could have been

 

I still hold out faith for Bogaerts to return to the player he can be. Maybe this is the fire he needs to ignite him. He’s a talented player when he’s hot and has mad skills. But I swear the guy dies drugs or something with his inconsistent play. Regardless I still think he’s an excellent player.

[Bellhorn04]

You can do all the head-to-head comparisons you want, but it's the X factors that will probably decide it.

 

Red Sox X factors:

 

How big of a boost will we see from the following factors?

-JDM

-More aggressive approach

-Return to form from Betts and Bogaerts

 

How healthy will David Price be?

 

How well will our 'bridge to Kimbrel' hold up with Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Workman, Thornburg (?) et al?

[mvp 78]

Red Sox vs Yankees

 

C - Vaz v Sanchez - Sanchez is better

1b - Mitch v Bird - Not even close, Bird can't play a full season

2b - Pedroia v Torres - Pedey even with his s***** baserunning

SS - Xander v Gregorius - Xander is going to mash this year

3b - Devers v Whoever - Devers all day

RF - Betts v Judge - sophmore slump for Judge

CF - JBJ v Hicks - I like Hicks, but JBJ is better right now

LF - Beni v Gardner - Gardner kinda sucks

DH - JD v Mike Stanton - JD will have the better year this time, Stanton will miss half the year due to injury

 

Red Sox 99-63

Yankees 87-75

[jacksonianmarch]

Isn’t that special

[mvp 78]

Isn’t that special

 

Oh s***, you just hit me with a 30 year old SNL reference. I'm dead.

 

Yankees are still a 2nd place team. For them, that's still pretty special since the Sox have been the better franchise for the past 15+ years.

[sk7326]

I still hold out faith for Bogaerts to return to the player he can be. Maybe this is the fire he needs to ignite him. He’s a talented player when he’s hot and has mad skills. But I swear the guy dies drugs or something with his inconsistent play. Regardless I still think he’s an excellent player.

 

He had an offseason to heal. That will help a lot.

[bkzwhitestrican]

Yankees X Factors:

 

Stay healthy and hit a s*** ton of HRs. They realistically could have 8 guys hit 20+ HRs (4 of those 8 could hit 30+, and 2 of those 4 could hit 50+).

[mvp 78]

Yankees X Factors:

 

Stay healthy and hit a s*** ton of HRs. They realistically could have 8 guys hit 20+ HRs (4 of those 8 could hit 30+, and 2 of those 4 could hit 50+).

 

Sox players that can hit 20 HRs:

 

Mitch

Xander

Devers

Betts

JBJ

Beni

JD

Hanley (could hit 20 off the bench)

[OH FOY]

X-factor with the Yanks is their Bullpen. Especially if Betances gets his crap together.

[mvp 78]

At this point, the Yanks are really no different than the Rays or Orioles to me. There is only one X factor in this "rivalry".

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS

[OH FOY]

Not one Catcher in the AL East that has the Power of Sanchez. And he missed a Month last year. Lot of difference, just there.

[Nick]

All kidding aside, big kudos to Yankees for being restrained financially over the last few years.

 

They have only one bad contract and that belongs to Jacoby Ellsbury. He has 3 years left at $22M per.

 

Their luxury tax payroll is only $176M, $21M below the threashhold.

 

CC has a one year deal at $10M. His payroll comes off the books.

 

Brett Gardner has a $13M deal for 2018 with $2M club buyout for 2019.

 

David Robertson is in his last year of his contract at $11.5M.

 

 

Theoretically that's $45M coming off the books. Obviously Yankees will need replacements to fill the void.

 

That adds up to $75M of war chest for 2019 free agents (inlcudes $9M bump in luxury tax threashhol), $95M if they want to pay the 12% surtax.

 

But the beauty of it all for Yankee fans is that Gary Sanders, Luis Severino and Aaron Judge all have 5 years of team control (along with Stanton).

 

It will be a dog fight next few years in AL East.

 

ps Machado and Harper would slide in nicely.

Edited March 2, 2018 by Nick

[harmony]

Will the AL East represent the American League in the World Series for only the second time in nine seasons?

 

Could happen.

[Kimmi]

Will the AL East represent the American League in the World Series for only the second time in nine seasons?

 

Could happen.

 

Could happen, but as of now, the Astros remain the team to beat.

[dgalehouse]

Will the AL East represent the American League in the World Series for only the second time in nine seasons?

 

Could happen.

 

Will the Seattle Mariners represent the A.L. in the World Series for the first time ever ? Could happen. But I doubt it.

[moonslav59]

The AL East is back to being the toughest division in MLB... IMO.

[Spudboy]

The AL East is back to being the toughest division in MLB... IMO.

 

I like this kind of talk Moon. I consider a strong AL East to be a normal state.

 

I doubt that the Jays, Os, and Rays will compete for a playoff spot but good luck to any team trying to beat them routinely.

[iortiz]

The AL East is back to being the toughest division in MLB... IMO.

 

Totally agreed.

[harmony]

The AL East is back to being the toughest division in MLB... IMO.

For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects these combined WAR totals for each division:

 

AL East: 200.0

AL Central: 146.5

AL West: 192.2

 

NL East: 157.3

NL Central: 185.9

NL West: 181.9

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

 

Perhaps this is the year that the AL East will live up to the annual refrain that it's the toughest division in baseball.

 

Or not.

[harmony]

Will the Seattle Mariners represent the A.L. in the World Series for the first time ever ? Could happen. But I doubt it.

I doubt it as well.

[fxkatt]

Advantage Yanks goes to homer power: Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Bird, Hicks, and Gregorius.

 

Yanks x factors: Severino and Montgomery. I'm guessing they'll pitch beyond expectatations.

 

Red Sox advantage could be a barrage of doubles--and maybe, just maybe the return to a high team batting average as in the past (no reason to doubt the possibility of a .283 team average, although first pitch swinging will undermine this)

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox advantage is that their starting pitching, if it reaches its potential, could be scary. Sale and vintage Price would be sick. The question is whether vintage Price still exists

[baseball jones]

Stanton isn't playing in the N.L. basement anymore....he won't win anymore mvp's here.i think he's the one in for a surprise this year.

 

judge has holes and there gigantic.

 

with a new manager and his new crew i dont fear your homerun hitters.except when playing them at yankee little league park.lol

 

but yes its nice to have rivalry back.its going to make for some great baseball

[S5Dewey]

The AL East is back to being the toughest division in MLB... IMO.

 

I was talking with a Yankees fan today and we agreed that if the Sox and Yankees were playing in different divisions they'd both have a legitimate shot at 100 wins.

[Hugh2]

The sox advantage is that their starting pitching, if it reaches its potential, could be scary. Sale and vintage Price would be sick. The question is whether vintage Price still exists

 

I'm hoping David Price has a bounce back year, I think he's a strong candidate to do so. Sale + Price at the top of the rotation is going to be a pretty lethal 1 2 punch.

[Bellhorn04]

I was talking with a Yankees fan today and we agreed that if the Sox and Yankees were playing in different divisions they'd both have a legitimate shot at 100 wins.

 

Although in theory we should be able to clean up against the other 3 teams in the division.