Sox hitting??

[illinoisredsox]

Thanks.

 

Class of '81.

 

 

I was a Freshman the year Joe Monatana (started the seasonas the 3rd string QB) led us to the national championship vs Earl Campbell and the Texas Longhorns.

 

Our star-studded basketball team, led by - or should I say dragged down by- Digger Phelps went to the final 4 the same year. We also lost to Danny Ainge and Brigham Young. Here are some of the players that played while I was there:

 

Bill Lambeer

Kelly Tripuka

Orlando Woolridge

Tracy Jackson

Bill Hanzlik

John Paxson

Joe Kleine

Dave Batton

Stan Wilcox

Duck Williams

Rich Branning

Brude Flowers

 

 

I played inter-hall football, basketball and baseball while there. It was highly competitive. I played some pick-up B-ball at the Rock with Orlando Woolridge, Silk Wilcox and some football players like Jerome heavens and Luther Bradley.

 

"Those were the days."

 

Moon, we were there at the same time; I'm class of '80. My younger son just finished up (class of '17)

 

Somewhere in a box I have my MVP shirt from the San Francisco game my freshman year (29 clap clap and 1 clap clap). The Dons came in undefeated and left otherwise. NBC named the student body the MVP of that game and somebody made up tee shirts to commemorate the occasion. My class can also say we never lost a game at Pauley Pavilion, going 4-0 there against UCLA. Also remember wins over #1 Marquette and DePaul.

 

Kleine got there the year after I graduated, but I did see Billy Paterno and Toby Knight. Digger sure did squander a lot of talent (that 1978 final 4 team had 8 guys who would play in the NBA plus 2 more who were drafted but didn't make it). He had a knack for building a moment, but over-coached way too often.

 

Never played inter-hall football (I wasn't even all school in high school, so trying to play with all conference types would have been futile) or basketball (lousy would not describe my ability in that sport), but I did play inter-hall baseball. For those who don't know, inter-hall football at ND is full contact with pads; the championship game is played in ND stadium.

 

Have you been to campus lately (say in the last 20 years)? If not, you will not recognize anything east of Juniper Road nor south of the South Quad.

[Maxbialystock]

Range is more important than errors, but of course if someone making 50 errors at SS is compared to someone making 10, his range is going to have to be a lot better to overcome the ErrR factor.

 

When you look at fangraph's fielding factors, the RngR factor always has a larger number range, so it appears to have a much bigger impact on defensive WAR.

 

UZR/150 certainly values the amount of plays made within your zone and on the fringes very very highly. Making errors or not making them seems secondary.

 

I've always maintained that several SSs make 50-80 or more plays a season than average or slightly below average SSs. Clearly, that more than makes up for the possibility that one of those SSs might make 10-25 more errors than those compared to.

 

So I have to ask this. Right now Bogaerts, who seems to me to be an average fielding SS, is actually rated near the bottom with a DWAR of -0.6. Do you think that is an accurate rating based on what you see day in and day out?

[mvp 78]

 

For our Notre Dame friends.

[illinoisredsox]

The report said Pedroia's walk off hit the other game was the second of his career. I've thought for a while that Pedroia is not a clutch hitter, but this seems absurdly low. Does anyone know how to find out a normal number of walk off hits for a player?

 

I'm sure Elias has it somewhere (or can conjure it up), but IMO it is as much a product of opportunity as anything. How often has he been in a position to have a walk-off play. I know he has scored several walk-off runs. If the guy was on first and he got a hit to send him to second or third, is he not "clutch"? Or, since he has hit near the top of the line-up most of them time, had a slow footed catcher as the winning run who would be unable to score from second on a normal base hit?

[OH FOY]

The Pitchers on this team do not help the Fielders out by throwing quickly, and throwing consistent strikes, attacking the Strike Zone. Seems they all nibble. That's hard on the Fielders, you get lazy.

[Emp9]

The Pitchers on this team do not help the Fielders out by throwing quickly, and throwing consistent strikes, attacking the Strike Zone. Seems they all nibble. That's hard on the Fielders, you get lazy.

 

Sale is the only SP we have that works quickly. Price works painfully slow coming back from the dl.

[Maxbialystock]

With fulsome apologies to all the Fighting Irish, some numbers on the Sox hitting--

 

Offensive WAR, OWAR, says our seveb best hitters are, in order--

 

Bogaerts 2.4

Betts 1.5

Moreland 1.3

JBJ 1.2

Beni 0.8

Pedey 0.6

Vazquez 0.6

 

Ramirez is at 0.2 and so is Young. Rutledge is 0.1.

 

Leon, wait for it, is at -0.3 and Sandoval at -0.2.

 

The Yankees top seven hitters--Judge, Hicks, Castro, Gardner, Holliday, Gregorious, and Sanchez--have OWAR's that range from 3.6 to 1.2.

 

And, FWIW, our three highest DWAR's (defensive wins above replacemnt) belong to Betts (1.2), Bradley (0.9), and Leon (0.5). OUr three worst DWAR's are Sandoval (-0.7), Bogaerts (-0.5), and Young (-0.5). Beni and Moreland are both at 0.0, and Pedey is 0.2.

 

 

The above stats suggest to me that:

 

1. The Yankees seven best hitters--heck, their whole lineup--are just about twice as good as ours.

2. We have pretty good pitching, but theirs is better--lowest ERA in the AL to our 3d best.

3. We have better fielders in the outfield, but not in the infield. We've committed 47 errors to their 33.

4. Call the baserunning a wash even though I think our guys do some boneheaded things on the basepaths. Both teams have stolen 37 bases.

5. We are just 3 games behind the Yankees, which suggests that our manager, whoever he is, is pretty good at doing more with less.

[Slasher9]

The report said Pedroia's walk off hit the other game was the second of his career. I've thought for a while that Pedroia is not a clutch hitter, but this seems absurdly low. Does anyone know how to find out a normal number of walk off hits for a player?

interesting that is only his 2nd one.

btw - apparently you didn't hear...there is no such thing as clutch hitting. hits are just random......

 

[mvp 78]

Dusty Baker - 25

Ricky Henderson - 21

David Ortiz - 20

 

As for what a normal number should be? No clue. The Sox have had 20 walk offs in the last 4 years. If we then assume about 5 walk offs per year, then Pedroia would have played in about 50 walk offs. 50 walk offs/9 batters = 5 expected walkoffs per batter.

 

Ortiz played for 15 years, so he would have had an expectation of 8 walk offs. Did a little better though.

Edited June 14, 2017 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

So I have to ask this. Right now Bogaerts, who seems to me to be an average fielding SS, is actually rated near the bottom with a DWAR of -0.6. Do you think that is an accurate rating based on what you see day in and day out?

 

Fangraphs has Bogey ranked 17th (+2.6) out of 27 in DWAR. I think that is pretty close to where I think he should be, based on my observations of Bogey and opposing SSs over this season and my lifetime.

 

WAR rewards longevity, and Bogey has missed very little time this year, so I value UZR/150 more, in terms of ranking a defenders comparative skill level. I also like to use larger sample sizes than 2-3 months.

 

I think these UZR/150 numbers accurately reflect Bogey's rankings, particularly the larger sample sizes:

 

UZR/150

15-17: 17th out of 36 at -0.7 (15th out of 36 with 1,000+ innings at +14.8 DWAR)

16-17: 18th out of 29 at -1.9 (17th out of 29 at 6.8 DWAR)

2017: 14th out of 27 (+0.7)

 

I'm not the biggest DRS fan, but here it is:

DRS

15-17: 34th out of 36 (-19)

16-17:28th out of 29 (-18)

2017: 26th out of 27 (-8)

 

Both of these metrics show Bogey was better in 2015 than 2016-2017 combined. I agree with that assessment, despite Bogey's several fine plays made recently.

 

I'd rank Bogey somewhere between 16 and 24 out of the top 30 innings guys at SS, based on my observations (which do not have a valid sample size of opposing SSs.)

[moonslav59]

Moon, we were there at the same time; I'm class of '80. My younger son just finished up (class of '17)

 

Somewhere in a box I have my MVP shirt from the San Francisco game my freshman year (29 clap clap and 1 clap clap). The Dons came in undefeated and left otherwise. NBC named the student body the MVP of that game and somebody made up tee shirts to commemorate the occasion. My class can also say we never lost a game at Pauley Pavilion, going 4-0 there against UCLA. Also remember wins over #1 Marquette and DePaul.

 

Kleine got there the year after I graduated, but I did see Billy Paterno and Toby Knight. Digger sure did squander a lot of talent (that 1978 final 4 team had 8 guys who would play in the NBA plus 2 more who were drafted but didn't make it). He had a knack for building a moment, but over-coached way too often.

 

Never played inter-hall football (I wasn't even all school in high school, so trying to play with all conference types would have been futile) or basketball (lousy would not describe my ability in that sport), but I did play inter-hall baseball. For those who don't know, inter-hall football at ND is full contact with pads; the championship game is played in ND stadium.

 

Have you been t o campus lately (say in the last 20 years)? If not, you will not recognize anything east of Juniper Road nor south of the South Quad.

 

Wow, glad to find another domer in our midsts.

 

I have only been back to the campus once since I graduated, and that was in 1985.

 

We probably played baseball against each other, but you would not remember me, ex cept for maybe a defensive play here or there. I think my batting average was about .220 with me maybe being generous with a couple reach on errors counted as hits.

 

I could never hit a curveball.

[moonslav59]

With fulsome apologies to all the Fighting Irish, some numbers on the Sox hitting--

 

Offensive WAR, OWAR, says our seveb best hitters are, in order--

 

Bogaerts 2.4

Betts 1.5

Moreland 1.3

JBJ 1.2

Beni 0.8

Pedey 0.6

Vazquez 0.6

 

Ramirez is at 0.2 and so is Young. Rutledge is 0.1.

 

Leon, wait for it, is at -0.3 and Sandoval at -0.2.

 

When you take out the base-running aspect of Offensive WAR, fangraphs has these numbers for Sox batting:

 

8.5 Moreland

6.2 Bogey

4.6 Betts

2.4 Travis

1.4 JBJ

1.1 Vazquez

0.8 Beni

0.6 Pedey

-0.2 HRam

-1.4 Young & Holt

-2.7 Marco

-3.5 Rutledge

-4.6 Pablo

-6.8 Leo

-8.5 Marrero

 

As for how our hitters have done "when it counts" so far this year, many sample sizes are tiny, are as follows:

 

Late & Close OPS (12+ PAs):

.927 Bogey

.917 Rutledge

.837 Moreland

.833 Betts

.796 Pedey

.713 JBJ

.703 beni

.696 Leon

.693 HRam

.667 Vaz

.619 Young

.516 Pablo

.432 Marco

 

High Leverage (11+ PAs)

1.148 Moreland

.901 Marrero

.879 Pedey

.844 Betts

.822 JBJ

.797 Bogey

.792 Pablo

.788 Leon

.666 Rutledge

.532 Beni

.527 Vaz

.425 Holt

.367 Young

.364 Marco

 

[Kimmi]

I dealt with those attitudes at "that other site", and never understood why so many think that those interested in stats and numbers not only can't "enjoy the game", but can never "understand the human element" involved with the game. It didn't matter that I played the game (and others) for many many years.

 

There might be nothing I enjoy more than watching the Sox win championships.

 

The numbers are secondary.

 

By the way, poor counseling at high school helped lead me to not take Calculus (and Chemistry) in HS, so when I got to the University of Notre Dame and chose Geology as my major, I nearly flunked freshman Calculus (and Chemisrty) first semester. I switched to Political Science by the start of semester two.

 

I'm fascinated by math & science, but I'm no whiz at either.

 

 

The perception that most people have of stat geeks is very incorrect.

 

Outside of my family and friends, what could possibly bring me more enjoyment than combining my two favorite things, baseball and math.

[moonslav59]

The perception that most people have of stat geeks is very incorrect.

 

Outside of my family and friends, what could possibly bring me more enjoyment than combining my two favorite things, baseball and math.

 

I was always pretty good at math, except for my Calculus experience mentioned earlier, but I never considered myself a math guy.

 

Percentages and probabilities fascinate me, so I guess I've got some "geek" in me.

 

I've played the game for years. I played softball for many more years.

 

I get the "human element", but winning comes down to production--production that is usually measurable and quantifiable by numbers and metrics.

 

I've been on losing teams that gel together and winning teams that scrape and grate but win.

 

I'll take winning any day of the week.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I get the "human element", but winning comes down to production--production that is usually measurable and quantifiable by numbers and metrics.

 

I've been on losing teams that gel together and winning teams that scrape and grate but win.

 

I'll take winning any day of the week.

 

 

Yet you're so concerned that the 2017 Sox have 'no fire' that you want to dump the manager because of it?

[moonslav59]

Yet you're so concerned that the 2017 Sox have 'no fire' that you want to dump the manager because of it?

 

No. I was very clear.

 

I wanted JF gone long ago, and winning a for 3 weeks doesn't change my opinion.

 

Lack of fundamentals is a bigger issue than lack of fire. It's more than just that. I don't think he a smart manager that wins games for the team.

 

I'm not calling for his firing right now, but like I said, a winning streak doesn't change my mind.

[Bellhorn04]

No. I was very clear.

 

I wanted JF gone long ago, and winning a for 3 weeks doesn't change my opinion.

 

Lack of fundamentals is a bigger issue than lack of fire. It's more than just that. I don't think he a smart manager that wins games for the team.

 

I'm not calling for his firing right now, but like I said, a winning streak doesn't change my mind.

 

Huh. Well, this isn't the Farrell thread, but you should chime in there.

[oldtimer]

Huh. Well, this isn't the Farrell thread, but you should chime in there.

 

Not certain why JF chose to go with Hanley last night instead of Moreland, if the intent is to win games. We won but Hanley is not as good as Moreland in the field and is hitting around 240 and taking the collar the majority of days where Moreland is hot. Maybe there is something physically wrong with Mooreland but I didn't hear of it.

 

Would love to see Hanley return to better form and us to resolve our 3b situation since the other guys appear to be back on track offensively.

[illinoisredsox]

Not certain why JF chose to go with Hanley last night instead of Moreland, if the intent is to win games. We won but Hanley is not as good as Moreland in the field and is hitting around 240 and taking the collar the majority of days where Moreland is hot. Maybe there is something physically wrong with Mooreland but I didn't hear of it.

 

Would love to see Hanley return to better form and us to resolve our 3b situation since the other guys appear to be back on track offensively.

 

Saw something that Moreland is banged up a little after being hit by a pitch in the toe on Tuesday. I guess it swelled up overnight so they kept him out as a precaution. Better to miss a couple games now than to have it linger for weeks.

[devildavid]

No. I was very clear.

 

I wanted JF gone long ago, and winning a for 3 weeks doesn't change my opinion.

 

Lack of fundamentals is a bigger issue than lack of fire. It's more than just that. I don't think he a smart manager that wins games for the team.

 

I'm not calling for his firing right now, but like I said, a winning streak doesn't change my mind.

 

I think a good manager's impact shows up in overall athletic performance and execution by players on the field. To me, a great manager instills a certain philosophy in the team. It is like a general guideline that emphasizes execution, effort, and consistency. I don't know if I would describe this as fire, but more as maximizing potential of athletic performance. Each player's strengths should be brought out as best they can and weaknesses should be minimized.

 

For example, the Hanley outfield experiment was an example of poor management. Once his deficiencies there were observed, the plan should have been immediately scrapped. Now it can be argued this was not all the fault of just Farrell, as his hand was forced somewhat. But it is still a management issue in the broadest sense.

 

Management is always a team effort with key players being the GM and the field manager. The more closely they work in sync, the better job they can do. A GM should work with the field manger to address needs on the field and try to find players to address those needs. Much of the field manager's success hinges on the talent he has to work with. It is then up to him to maximize the potential of that talent. So winning is not really the true measure of a successful manager. It is rather a subjective evaluation of whether or not he has brought out the best in his team and they are performing near enough to their best potential. That is really all a manger can do. He can't win games by being smarter but he can get the best out of the players he has. How to judge that is subjective because it depends on your view of the talent he has and how good you think they should be performing.

[Bellhorn04]

These last few posts should be in the Farrell thread...including mine.

[mvp 78]

It's clear to me that Farrell isn't taking enough BP. On pace for 92 wins? Who cares! We want dingers! Hit some dingers Farrell!

[moonslav59]

I think a good manager's impact shows up in overall athletic performance and execution by players on the field. To me, a great manager instills a certain philosophy in the team. It is like a general guideline that emphasizes execution, effort, and consistency. I don't know if I would describe this as fire, but more as maximizing potential of athletic performance. Each player's strengths should be brought out as best they can and weaknesses should be minimized.

 

For example, the Hanley outfield experiment was an example of poor management. Once his deficiencies there were observed, the plan should have been immediately scrapped. Now it can be argued this was not all the fault of just Farrell, as his hand was forced somewhat. But it is still a management issue in the broadest sense.

 

Management is always a team effort with key players being the GM and the field manager. The more closely they work in sync, the better job they can do. A GM should work with the field manger to address needs on the field and try to find players to address those needs. Much of the field manager's success hinges on the talent he has to work with. It is then up to him to maximize the potential of that talent. So winning is not really the true measure of a successful manager. It is rather a subjective evaluation of whether or not he has brought out the best in his team and they are performing near enough to their best potential. That is really all a manger can do. He can't win games by being smarter but he can get the best out of the players he has. How to judge that is subjective because it depends on your view of the talent he has and how good you think they should be performing.

 

Well said.

[cp176]

It's clear to me that Farrell isn't taking enough BP. On pace for 92 wins? Who cares! We want dingers! Hit some dingers Farrell!

 

Wow - I guess third base isn't the issue people think it is either if you like this perspective. 0 problems in bean town. Hell - add one more hitter and a real third baseman - what do you think? 100,105, 110 wins - the sky is the limit.

[mvp 78]

Wow - I guess third base isn't the issue people think it is either if you like this perspective. 0 problems in bean town. Hell - add one more hitter and a real third baseman - what do you think? 100,105, 110 wins - the sky is the limit.

 

Farrell is such a s***** 3b. DFA!

[Kimmi]

I was always pretty good at math, except for my Calculus experience mentioned earlier, but I never considered myself a math guy.

 

Percentages and probabilities fascinate me, so I guess I've got some "geek" in me.

 

I've played the game for years. I played softball for many more years.

 

I get the "human element", but winning comes down to production--production that is usually measurable and quantifiable by numbers and metrics.

 

I've been on losing teams that gel together and winning teams that scrape and grate but win.

 

I'll take winning any day of the week.

 

 

I've always been good at math, but calculus kicked my butt when I took it, for reasons that I will not get into here. I absolutely love calculus now. Math Geeks Unite!

 

I think most of us here, myself included, have played sports at a fairly competitive level.

 

I know you get the human element. Every stat geek I've ever read gets the human element. For people to say otherwise is just false information.

[Kimmi]

It's clear to me that Farrell isn't taking enough BP. On pace for 92 wins? Who cares! We want dingers! Hit some dingers Farrell!

 

Guess what our record was after 65 games last season, when we won the division?

[a700hitter]

I've always been good at math, but calculus kicked my butt when I took it, for reasons that I will not get into here.

I am guessing it was a bad teacher. It is hard to teach math well.

[cp176]

back to hitting (and maybe even baselining) - is Chris Sale just made differently than most of the guys we have occupying roster spots currently? Can he play first base and pitch? All they needed to do last night was to hit the ball somewhere - anywhere!

[oldtimer]

back to hitting (and maybe even baselining) - is Chris Sale just made differently than most of the guys we have occupying roster spots currently? Can he play first base and pitch? All they needed to do last night was to hit the ball somewhere - anywhere!

 

They ran into a pitcher that they couldn't hit effectively despite having a strong hitting lineup in the game. With Betts, pedey, Bogaerts, Moreland, Beni and JBJ all in a row, we had lots of possibilities but just didn't get it done. Several balls were line drives but didn't fall in. We need to move on from there.