Sox hitting??

[Kimmi]

Betts BABIP is about 50 points below his career average, and watching the games, he is hitting into bad lucks. One would think he is fishing away like Sandoval looking at his numbers on the surface.

 

I think he was hitting into some pretty bad luck earlier in the season. In the past couple of weeks, he has been hitting the ball very weakly.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and the numbers back this up:

 

Hard hit balls %:

 

31.7% 2015

33.4% 2016

36.8% 2017

 

His LD%, however, is down 2%. He's also pulling the ball more than ever (about 4% more).

 

The BAbip should right itself as the season progresses.

 

2015: .310

2016: .322

2017: .256

 

 

 

To break that down a little farther, during the month of June, his pull % is 50. His IFFB% is 33, and his soft contact % is 39.3, although his hard contact is still 35.7%. He's been scuffling.

[moonslav59]

I have often thought that a stat for how many times a player takes the collar versus games played in would reveal more about a players offensive value than some of the available stats. A player can go off against weak pitching and perhaps build BA and RBI stats, but then take the collar day after day and have the same offensive stats as a guy who hits in more games and is a lot more consistent. I find no place where such a stat exists.

 

I'm not so sure a consistent player wins more games for you than one who bunches up his hits.

 

Of course a player who goes 5 for 5 in 16-2 blow outs only would have less value.

[moonslav59]

To break that down a little farther, during the month of June, his pull % is 50. His IFFB% is 33, and his soft contact % is 39.3, although his hard contact is still 35.7%. He's been scuffling.

 

Good points.

 

I'm hopeful he turns things around very quickly.

[oldtimer]

We got 11 runs last night without the benefit of a single home run. Detroits relief pitching is terrible and so we took advantage of that. To stay in this race, we have to take advantage of teams with glaring weaknesses and avoid giving away winnable games. The Houston series will be a real test and I hope we can get through that with at least one win.

[Nick]

We got 11 runs last night without the benefit of a single home run. Detroits relief pitching is terrible and so we took advantage of that. To stay in this race, we have to take advantage of teams with glaring weaknesses and avoid giving away winnable games. The Houston series will be a real test and I hope we can get through that with at least one win.

 

The key hit last night was Moreland's double. 5 runs in the 8th essentially became meaningless from winning perspective. Not sure how you would capture that statistically.

[moonslav59]

The key hit last night was Moreland's double. 5 runs in the 8th essentially became meaningless from winning perspective. Not sure how you would capture that statistically.

 

The "Late & Close" stat does.

 

Sox 2017 numbers (13+ PAs)

 

.993 Rutledge (13)

.960 Bogey (36)

.879 Betts (36)

.843 Moreland (37)

.752 Pedey (32)

.724 Leon (26)

.670 JBJ (28)

.667 Vaz (18)

.648 Young (23)

.621 Beni (36)

.546 HRam (27)

.417 Pablo (18)

 

Late & Close are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

 

[S5Dewey]

I've been schooled to believe that statistically a player cannot turn it up a notch in any situation, and now I see statistics for "late and close".

 

I'm so confused.

[moonslav59]

I've been schooled to believe that statistically a player cannot turn it up a notch in any situation, and now I see statistics for "late and close".

 

I'm so confused.

 

It's not a repeatable skill, but that doesn't mean it's not trackable or important.

 

Papi career OPS .931

Career Late & Close: .870

High leverage: .942

Edited June 12, 2017 by moonslav59

[S5Dewey]

It's not a repeatable skill, but that doesn't mean it's not trackable or important.

 

Papi career OPS .931

Career Late & Close: .870

High leverage: .942

 

Definitely trackable, "important" from a historical sense (I guess) but in terms of the game it's like all stats in that it's relatively meaningless.

 

And if you believe all that I have a bridge to sell you.

[Maxbialystock]

I've been schooled to believe that statistically a player cannot turn it up a notch in any situation, and now I see statistics for "late and close".

 

I'm so confused.

 

You're right, of course. We all believe that some players focus better, but don't tighten up, in clutch situations. The problem as I see is that the opposing manager has the power to affect that, the simplest being to walk the good hitter, which we saw Ausmus (?) do at least once. Another is to bring in a specialty or other effective reliever for that specific batter. Interestingly, that's exactly what Farrell did last night the bases loaded and 1 out in the 5th. Hembree's 96 mph fastball was actually outside, but the batter still hit it hard enough to get it to the Pesky pole, which, as I recall, is still a cheap dinger but one that nevertheless counts--it was a clutch at bat in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

You're right, of course. We all believe that some players focus better, but don't tighten up, in clutch situations. The problem as I see is that the opposing manager has the power to affect that, the simplest being to walk the good hitter, which we saw Ausmus (?) do at least once. Another is to bring in a specialty or other effective reliever for that specific batter. Interestingly, that's exactly what Farrell did last night the bases loaded and 1 out in the 5th. Hembree's 96 mph fastball was actually outside, but the batter still hit it hard enough to get it to the Pesky pole, which, as I recall, is still a cheap dinger but one that nevertheless counts--it was a clutch at bat in my opinion.

 

An intentional walk boosts the Late & Close OPS immensely.

[Kimmi]

You're right, of course. We all believe that some players focus better, but don't tighten up, in clutch situations. The problem as I see is that the opposing manager has the power to affect that, the simplest being to walk the good hitter, which we saw Ausmus (?) do at least once. Another is to bring in a specialty or other effective reliever for that specific batter. Interestingly, that's exactly what Farrell did last night the bases loaded and 1 out in the 5th. Hembree's 96 mph fastball was actually outside, but the batter still hit it hard enough to get it to the Pesky pole, which, as I recall, is still a cheap dinger but one that nevertheless counts--it was a clutch at bat in my opinion.

 

There are most definitely clutch at bats. No one has argued against that.

[S5Dewey]

So if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal AB's can we call him "Clutch"?

[Bellhorn04]

So if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal AB's can we call him "Clutch"?

 

LOL you don't give up easy.

[S5Dewey]

LOL you don't give up easy.

 

??? I think that's a fair question!!

 

And really is the crux of my whole argument.

[moonslav59]

So if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal AB's can we call him "Clutch"?

 

If a player sustains it and exists, let me know.

[harmony]

So if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal AB's can we call him "Clutch"?

I recommend the book Smart Baseball* by sanctimonious ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law.

 

https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062490223/smart-baseball

 

This evening I read the chapter titled "Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist."

 

* subtitled The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball

[moonslav59]

I recommend the book Smart Baseball* by sanctimonious ESPN senior baseball writer Keith Law.

 

https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062490223/smart-baseball

 

This evening I read the chapter titled "Bulfinch's Baseball Mythology: Clutch Hitters, Lineup Protection, and Other Things That Don't Exist."

 

* subtitled The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball

 

Thanks, harmony.

 

I just ordered it online.

[mvp 78]

"The right way to think about baseball."

 

That sentence is just gross.

[moonslav59]

"The right way to think about baseball."

 

That sentence is just gross.

 

Maybe it's not "the right way", but to me there seem to some be "wrong ways" at looking at baseball (stats).

[notin]

So if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal AB's can we call him "Clutch"?

 

I'd consider it, assuming it's not someone with very few at bats.

 

I'd also give the label to someone who outperforms in High Leverage, with the same sample size caveat.

 

Know of any such hitter?

[mvp 78]

Maybe it's not "the right way", but to me there seem to some be "wrong ways" at looking at baseball (stats).

 

I don't agree that there is a wrong way with looking at stats. If people want to talk about pitching wins, batting average and how great save totals are, more power to them. Whether you agree with someone or not, there is no "wrong way" to look at baseball if you are enjoying it.

[Slasher9]

so if a player has better stats in 'late and close' situations than in normal ab's can we call him "clutch"?

 

bingo.

[OH FOY]

I like the way this guy looks at it.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/5/11/8577943/baseball-clutch-hitting-visualized

 

RISP is huge, that's why its always in the Boxscore. I would bet that the team that wins this stat, at the end of the day wins 70% of the games.

Edited June 13, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

"The right way to think about baseball."

 

That sentence is just gross.

 

I agree. And the condescension implied in that sentence is exactly what ticks off a lot of old-schoolers about the 'new metrics'.

[moonslav59]

I don't agree that there is a wrong way with looking at stats. If people want to talk about pitching wins, batting average and how great save totals are, more power to them. Whether you agree with someone or not, there is no "wrong way" to look at baseball if you are enjoying it.

 

People who still use Flg% to rank defenders are just plain wrong. Sorry, but it's true.

[mvp 78]

People who still use Flg% to rank defenders are just plain wrong. Sorry, but it's true.

 

Dustin Pedroia's worst defensive WAR season (excluding his cup of coffee in 2006) is also his worst Fielding % year. That stat has some value even if you want to ignore it.

[moonslav59]

Dustin Pedroia's worst defensive WAR season (excluding his cup of coffee in 2006) is also his worst Fielding % year. That stat has some value even if you want to ignore it.

 

I never said it had no value, but when people use it as the only or most important defensive stat, it is flat out wrong.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Dustin Pedroia's worst defensive WAR season (excluding his cup of coffee in 2006) is also his worst Fielding % year. That stat has some value even if you want to ignore it.

 

A higher than normal rate of errors can certainly have an impact on defensive WAR.