Sox hitting??

[SoxnCycles]

I've always been good at math, but calculus kicked my butt when I took it, for reasons that I will not get into here. I absolutely love calculus now. Math Geeks Unite!

 

I think most of us here, myself included, have played sports at a fairly competitive level.

 

I know you get the human element. Every stat geek I've ever read gets the human element. For people to say otherwise is just false information.

 

 

Partying too much?

[mvp 78]

Guess what our record was after 65 games last season, when we won the division?

 

Who cares about record? HOW MANY DINGERS DID FARRELL HIT LAST YEAR?!?!?

[moonslav59]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

No Keuchel- No McCullers.

 

GO SOX!!!!!

[SoxnCycles]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

No Keuchel- No McCullers.

 

GO SOX!!!!!

 

They certainly can't be any worse than last night.

It's pretty sad when your most productive hitter is the pitcher.

 

Enjoy the game.

[S5Dewey]

They certainly can't be any worse than last night.

It's pretty sad when your most productive hitter is the pitcher.

Enjoy the game.

 

LOL Nice observation. I hadn't thought of it that way!

[moonslav59]

Bats will explode tonight!.

 

(I hope!)

[Spudboy]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

No Keuchel- No McCullers.

 

GO SOX!!!!!

 

Have fun. I wish that I could join you.

 

I am curious. How much does a game cost a fan in Houston? Ticket, parking, food, beer, soda, etc.

 

It would be fun to hear what you needed to spend to go see a game.

 

Thanks.

[notin]

Fangraphs has Bogey ranked 17th (+2.6) out of 27 in DWAR. I think that is pretty close to where I think he should be, based on my observations of Bogey and opposing SSs over this season and my lifetime.

 

WAR rewards longevity, and Bogey has missed very little time this year, so I value UZR/150 more, in terms of ranking a defenders comparative skill level. I also like to use larger sample sizes than 2-3 months.

 

I think these UZR/150 numbers accurately reflect Bogey's rankings, particularly the larger sample sizes:

 

UZR/150

15-17: 17th out of 36 at -0.7 (15th out of 36 with 1,000+ innings at +14.8 DWAR)

16-17: 18th out of 29 at -1.9 (17th out of 29 at 6.8 DWAR)

2017: 14th out of 27 (+0.7)

 

I'm not the biggest DRS fan, but here it is:

DRS

15-17: 34th out of 36 (-19)

16-17:28th out of 29 (-18)

2017: 26th out of 27 (-8)

 

Both of these metrics show Bogey was better in 2015 than 2016-2017 combined. I agree with that assessment, despite Bogey's several fine plays made recently.

 

I'd rank Bogey somewhere between 16 and 24 out of the top 30 innings guys at SS, based on my observations (which do not have a valid sample size of opposing SSs.)

 

UZR is better if you want to judge Bogaerts year to year. It's not necessarily accurate, but at least it's inclusive to his play alone.

 

DRS is ranked against average play at his position, so if Bogaerts drops it might have nothing to do with him and largely be a function of the other shortstops in the league. ..

[mvp 78]

@PawSox

 

Over his 12-game hitting streak, Rusney Castillo is hitting .396.

 

He now leads the team in…

• AVG (.295)

• SLG (.498)

• Total Bases (108)

[Jasonbay44]

@PawSox

 

Over his 12-game hitting streak, Rusney Castillo is hitting .396.

 

He now leads the team in…

• AVG (.295)

• SLG (.498)

• Total Bases (108)

Can he play 3B!?!

[Kimmi]

Partying too much?

 

Ha!

 

Welcome back Cycles. It warms my heart to see you posting again. I'm so glad you're okay.

[Kimmi]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

No Keuchel- No McCullers.

 

GO SOX!!!!!

 

Winning 3 out of 4 in any series is a success. That said, it's hard not to disappointed by last night's loss when Sale pitched such a gem.

 

Have fun at the game tonight!

[SoxnCycles]

Ha!

 

Welcome back Cycles. It warms my heart to see you posting again. I'm so glad you're okay.

 

Thanks.

[SoxnCycles]

Winning 3 out of 4 in any series is a success. That said, it's hard not to disappointed by last night's loss when Sale pitched such a gem.

 

Have fun at the game tonight!

 

Games like last night are frustrating, when you know 2 or 3 runs is all they need and they can't manage 1.

[mvp 78]

Can he play 3B!?!

 

Any worse than Rutledge/Marrero/Sandoval? Probably not.

[moonslav59]

UZR is better if you want to judge Bogaerts year to year. It's not necessarily accurate, but at least it's inclusive to his play alone.

 

DRS is ranked against average play at his position, so if Bogaerts drops it might have nothing to do with him and largely be a function of the other shortstops in the league. ..

 

...well, when you're trying to rank Bogey among the top 30 SSs in MLB, measuring how good the other SSs are is a big part of the process.

 

I think saying Bogey is about 15th might be a tad too generous. Saying he's about 20th out of the top 30 by innings played sounds closer to his true ranking.

 

The way he's hitting, 15th or 20th is fine by me, but a couple years ago, after his decent 2014 defensive season, I had hoped he'd continue to improve and possibly get to the 10th to 15th tier. It looks like he's stepped back a little from 2014.

[moonslav59]

Any worse than Rutledge/Marrero/Sandoval? Probably not.

 

Then, maybe we should play Young vs LHPs and Travis vs RHPs at 3B from now until Devers is ML ready, right?

 

[mvp 78]

Then, maybe we should play Young vs LHPs and Travis vs RHPs at 3B from now until Devers is ML ready, right?

 

 

Well Devers IS ML ready.

[devildavid]

UZR is better if you want to judge Bogaerts year to year. It's not necessarily accurate, but at least it's inclusive to his play alone.

 

DRS is ranked against average play at his position, so if Bogaerts drops it might have nothing to do with him and largely be a function of the other shortstops in the league. ..

 

I thought that UZR did the same thing.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

 

 

For the details on how UZR is calculated — i.e. how we can attach a run value to defensive events — see the FanGraphs UZR Primer. It’s very thorough. The specifics can be a little overwhelming, but at it’s most basic level, it’s a measure of the average amount of damage that batted ball would do and how often it is converted into an out, relative to average at the position.

[oldtimer]

I thought that UZR did the same thing.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

 

Whats with bogey striking out twice in a row tonight with men on base, the last time on 3 pitches?

[Spudboy]

?????

[moonslav59]

Well Devers IS ML ready.

 

I feel he is too, but I trust Sox management on these types of decisions.

[oldtimer]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

You were at the game and did you think the bats woke up? At least they got great pitching again and hit enough to win the game. I noted Bogey struck out his first two times and was unable to get a hit as was Beni. I didn't get a chace to watch the game live. Did either hit the the ball hard into tough luck or were they just ineffectual at the plate?

[Maxbialystock]

I'll tell you what I liked about last night's (2-1 win over Houston) hitting. The Sox played in Philly the night before, and in the first two innings and good scoring opportunities and actually hit the ball hard--but right to someone--with RISP. Vazquez it's true had a GIDP, but Houston had 3 of them. Bogaerts really struggled last night, but we know he is a good hitter.

 

What is hurting the Sox in the hitting department is being dead last in the AL in dingers but leading the AL in GIDP.

 

Moonslav is probably right the hitting will improve, but no one should claim it will be as good as last year. Improvement, whatever it is, could be enough because the Sox right now have the 3d best won-loss record in the AL and the 5th best in MLB. The pitching is saving this team, and I think it's fair to say that's the first time that's happened in the John Henry era now in its 15th or 16th season.

[moonslav59]

Woulda been nice to sweep, but it was nice to see Sale pitch even better than his recent starts.

 

I'll be at the game tonight.

 

I think the bats will wake up.

 

You were at the game and did you think the bats woke up? At least they got great pitching again and hit enough to win the game. I noted Bogey struck out his first two times and was unable to get a hit as was Beni. I didn't get a chace to watch the game live. Did either hit the the ball hard into tough luck or were they just ineffectual at the plate?

 

No, the bats did no "wake up". We hit the ball hard for some outs, and that Astros had some good shifts and defensive placements last night.

 

I was wrong and should avoid short sample size projections.

 

The Astros are showing the world what happens when starting pitchers get hurt.

 

They went from looking invincible to so-so seeminly overnight.

[moonslav59]

I'll tell you what I liked about last night's (2-1 win over Houston) hitting. The Sox played in Philly the night before, and in the first two innings and good scoring opportunities and actually hit the ball hard--but right to someone--with RISP. Vazquez it's true had a GIDP, but Houston had 3 of them. Bogaerts really struggled last night, but we know he is a good hitter.

 

What is hurting the Sox in the hitting department is being dead last in the AL in dingers but leading the AL in GIDP.

 

Moonslav is probably right the hitting will improve, but no one should claim it will be as good as last year. Improvement, whatever it is, could be enough because the Sox right now have the 3d best won-loss record in the AL and the 5th best in MLB. The pitching is saving this team, and I think it's fair to say that's the first time that's happened in the John Henry era now in its 15th or 16th season.

 

Nobody ever did or will.

 

You don't lose Papi and stay even by adding Moreland and a full season from Beni.

 

Many felt we'd still end up top 3 or 5, but that's a far cry from scoring 100 more runs than just about everyone else as we did last year.

 

I still think we might finish top 5, but time is running out on that projection.

 

It wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong.

[Spudboy]

Cleveland lost the top of their rotation last year and still managed to have a really good season.

 

Maybe it hinges on depth and overall talent.

 

Maybe it's just random.

 

It's baseball, one way or another.

[oldtimer]

 

No, the bats did no "wake up". We hit the ball hard for some outs, and that Astros had some good shifts and defensive placements last night.

 

I was wrong and should avoid short sample size projections.

 

The Astros are showing the world what happens when starting pitchers get hurt.

 

They went from looking invincible to so-so seeminly overnight.

 

Any news on Hanley? We need his bat, but only if he is healthy and perform somewhat close to what we saw last year.

[moonslav59]

 

Any news on Hanley? We need his bat, but only if he is healthy and perform somewhat close to what we saw last year.

 

I'm not sure about HRam. I was surprised to see Young DH vs a righty last night.

[notin]

Ko o

...well, when you're trying to rank Bogey among the top 30 SSs in MLB, measuring how good the other SSs are is a big part of the process.

 

I think saying Bogey is about 15th might be a tad too generous. Saying he's about 20th out of the top 30 by innings played sounds closer to his true ranking.

 

The way he's hitting, 15th or 20th is fine by me, but a couple years ago, after his decent 2014 defensive season, I had hoped he'd continue to improve and possibly get to the 10th to 15th tier. It looks like he's stepped back a little from 2014.

 

I think of looking at UZR like looking at home runs (or any counting stat). If Bogaerts hit 25 one year and 30 the next, that's measurable improvement. Using DRS is like comparing home run ranking. If Bogaerts was 5th in the AL one year seventh in the AL the next, did he get worse or better?